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Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I don't think you understand what you are reading j-mac. Redress got it exactly right, the DailyMail headlines got it wrong in the headlines but the actual article isn't as bad. That is standard misinformation peddling that you fell for.

The use of "natural variability" is highly misleading in this context. What the study is talking about is the unexpected behavior of the oceans in which heat is cyclically absorbed for decades and then released later. These are long cycles that climate modelers just didn't know about in the 90's. This in turn is what creates the rapid warming and then lull we are observing today. This does not indicate agw being a hoax, or scam, or of manipulated data, or any other silly notion. Even though surface temperatures are not rapidly rising in the last decade or so, we are technically still rapidly warming because of the massive positive net energy imbalance. The upper oceans are warming rapidly and the Earth may also be a "planetary heatsink" which is also absorbing large amounts of heat which is why we're not seeing warming the in deeper levels of the ocean.

The other component here is that the paper supports the upper spectrum of climate model warming to be unlikely looking at these oscillations. They also say it could change but for now it is less likely not impossible or wrong, or a scam, or anything else. This is just statistics. This is why they have different scenarios because they don't have perfect information so they have to interpolate and make educated predictions.

Also wanted to add, when the oscillations are back to the warming phase, we will likely see very rapid warming once again and it could easily eclipse the warming we saw from the 70's to 00's. If you think this means agw is going away or not a problem, you're likely quite wrong.

Yes, it's obvious the debate rages on and the models and predictions require constant modifications.

With that as fact, it also remains true the only solution being pushed involves the largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind, every human being on the planet change their lives, and a tacit agreement by all mankind to be subservient to a panel of unknown experts who will decide how they get to live life moving forward.

It's preposterous to believe such a scenario would not be met without extreme skepticism and resistance. Calling these billions who are skeptical names does nothing to forward the AGW agenda.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Ok,

1. how does that refute the Duke scientists?

2. The study provided by the Florida commission is just another group using their conclusion first, then working to prove the conclusion....That's NOT science.

For every one study that diminishes the effects of climate change there's ten that substantiate them.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Ok,

1. how does that refute the Duke scientists?

2. The study provided by the Florida commission is just another group using their conclusion first, then working to prove the conclusion....That's NOT science.

WASHINGTON -- The Senate voted Wednesday to acknowledge that climate change is real, bringing itself up to date with every major scientific body in the world.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Never said that I thought this disproved Climate changes, only that it shows that the supposed science being rammed down our throats, and driving policy that is artificially raising prices across the spectrum for everyone, is based on a political, rather than a scientific explanation. Also, that it is apparent that at this point, as F&L points out rather well, is that AGW proponents have become more akin to a religious cult rather than a rational belief, or debate.

Nothing's being rammed down your throat. If you dispute the effects of climate change, don't worry about it.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

While leaders of the Republican-controlled Congress have vowed to block regulations to control carbon emissions, a poll by Yale University earlier this month found that 56 percent of Republicans support regulating climate-warming greenhouse gases.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Nothing's being rammed down your throat. If you dispute the effects of climate change, don't worry about it.


I don't worry about it....Check out my sweet new truck....

20150212_181336 (2).jpg
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

While leaders of the Republican-controlled Congress have vowed to block regulations to control carbon emissions, a poll by Yale University earlier this month found that 56 percent of Republicans support regulating climate-warming greenhouse gases.

Darwin is alive....People fall for propaganda all the time....:shrug:
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Darwin is alive....People fall for propaganda all the time....:shrug:

Ok, 56% of your brethren have drank the coolaid.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

And it's succeeding.

from 1995 to 2005 the AGW arena was the fastest growing industry on the planet. It now directly employs over 5 million 'non-research' staff world wide and that does not include the public sector where cities run by socialists like Vancouver have a global warming staff of 16.

Ontario is being bankrupted by liberal green idiots and they are now going to attempt to bankrupt the citizenry as well. Get ready out in BC for having your federal tax dollars funneled into Ontario as our economy craters in the next few years.

Sad to say, but after living my entire life here, I will be seriously considering a move out of this Province in the near future. I won't enter energy poverty to fund these destructive fools.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I don't think you understand what you are reading j-mac. Redress got it exactly right, the DailyMail headlines got it wrong in the headlines but the actual article isn't as bad. That is standard misinformation peddling that you fell for.

The use of "natural variability" is highly misleading in this context. What the study is talking about is the unexpected behavior of the oceans in which heat is cyclically absorbed for decades and then released later. These are long cycles that climate modelers just didn't know about in the 90's. This in turn is what creates the rapid warming and then lull we are observing today. This does not indicate agw being a hoax, or scam, or of manipulated data, or any other silly notion. Even though surface temperatures are not rapidly rising in the last decade or so, we are technically still rapidly warming because of the massive positive net energy imbalance. The upper oceans are warming rapidly and the Earth may also be a "planetary heatsink" which is also absorbing large amounts of heat which is why we're not seeing warming the in deeper levels of the ocean.

The other component here is that the paper supports the upper spectrum of climate model warming to be unlikely looking at these oscillations. They also say it could change but for now it is less likely not impossible or wrong, or a scam, or anything else. This is just statistics. This is why they have different scenarios because they don't have perfect information so they have to interpolate and make educated predictions.

Also wanted to add, when the oscillations are back to the warming phase, we will likely see very rapid warming once again and it could easily eclipse the warming we saw from the 70's to 00's. If you think this means agw is going away or not a problem, you're likely quite wrong.

Um, yeah.
Like I said on the thread about this very study I posted days ago ... http://www.debatepolitics.com/envir...te-than-worst-case-models.html#post1064563322... it's called ... wait for it ... NATURE ... and it overwhelms to a huge degree anything humans do.

You people are starting to sound desperate.
Like Obama with his Earth Day speech a couple of days ago.
Man! That was embarrassing to watch.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Well instead of using some sensationalist rag for your info on matters of science, why don't you just look at what the authors of the actual study had to say about it:

DURHAM, N.C. – A new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records suggests global warming is not progressing as fast as it would under the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now,” said Patrick T. Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment. “But this could change.”

The Duke-led study shows that natural variability in surface temperatures -- caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors -- can account for observed changes in the recent rates of warming from decade to decade.

The researchers say these “climate wiggles” can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade, and accentuate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. If not properly explained and accounted for, they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends.

The research, published today in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, uses empirical data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

“At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,” said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.

https://nicholas.duke.edu/news/global-warming-more-moderate-worst-case-models

Basically what they are saying is that the IPCC models give a range. Their findings are that most likely we should expect warming to be in the middle of that range rather than on the high end. This is what most climate scientists have been saying for years, and it certainly does nothing for the deniers out there. As climate models improve we will see a narrowing of the projected range for future warming. The latest IPCC assessment reflected that, and the next one will almost certainly will narrow down projections on both the low and high end as well. That is how science works.

What I think is rather telling is that grasping of straws by deniers. One day they argue that climate isn't sensitive to increased CO2 in the atmosphere, the next they cite a study that says that of course its sensitive to increased CO2 in the atmosphere but the worst case scenario past projections are probably unlikely, then they next day they cite some bull**** article claiming we are headed for another ice age, and then the next day they question whether we have warmed at all, then they argue that we are going to warm and have warmed but its the sun..... and on and on and on and on. I mean there is not even any consistency to their arguments other than they just refuse to accept mainstream science.

As far as mainstream science goes, its basically this: At current levels of CO2 emissions and emissions growth, we will warm by the end of the century by at least 3 degrees and by as much as 8 degrees. Both the lowest estimates for warming and the highest estimates for warming are less likely, and most likely warming will be in the 4 to 6 degree range. We are working on improving projections to narrow that range even further.

Personally, as its obvious we are not going to do anything about it, we are going to warm and might as well get used to it.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

global-warming-funny-pictures.jpg
skeptic_cartoon.jpg
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Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Wrong on both counts Red....From the article....

"The research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.

'At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,' said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.

The team examined whether climate models, such as those used by the IPCC, accurately account for natural chaotic variability that can occur in the rate of global warming.

To test these, created a new statistical model based on reconstructed empirical records of surface temperatures over the last 1,000 years.

'By comparing our model against theirs, we found that climate models largely get the 'big picture' right but seem to underestimate the magnitude of natural decade-to-decade climate wiggles,' Brown said.

'Our model shows these wiggles can be big enough that they could have accounted for a reasonable portion of the accelerated warming we experienced from 1975 to 2000, as well as the reduced rate in warming that occurred from 2002 to 2013.'


'Statistically, it's pretty unlikely that an 11-year hiatus in warming, like the one we saw at the start of this century, would occur if the underlying human-caused warming was progressing at a rate as fast as the most severe IPCC projections,' Brown said."


So, not quite what you are trying to paint here...Not surprising that you would try though.

You just quoted him as saying exactly what I just said...
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Darwin is alive....People fall for propaganda all the time....:shrug:

My irony meter just assploded...
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Of-course their models are wrong.

The idiots who equate " models " based on manipulated data to Science wont care about this admission
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Of-course their models are wrong.

The idiots who equate " models " based on manipulated data to Science wont care about this admission

Study does not say the models are wrong. Headline is a lie.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

The Duke report actually says that warming is more moderate than the models have predicted........note, that it says warming is moderate...it does not say warming has stopped. Why is it necessary to distort the facts to prove your point, unless your point contradicts the facts.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

They did not say the models do not work, they said the most extreme models are unlikely. That is a very large, unsubtle difference.

And, that study is but one voice in a global sea of scientific studies that collaborate the seriousness of climate change. But besides that, I don't understand why clean air, clean water and safe food is political. Regardless of politics, all of us need it. The one thing that the two parties should easily have consensus on, and yet profit even trumps that.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Of-course their models are wrong.

The idiots who equate " models " based on manipulated data to Science wont care about this admission

Please ignore the headline and read the article, you'll see there's not all that much space between this one study, and ALL the other studies out there.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Study does not say the models are wrong. Headline is a lie.

The Models ARE wrong.

Global warming exist only in Computer models that are constructed using manipulated data.

For example ; the NOAA claimed that July 2012 was the hottest month on record, surpassing July 1932.

They made the claim based on their own " Homogenized " ( manipulated ) temperature data.

Well a REAL SCIENTIST looked into their claim and exposed it as the fraud that it was forcing the NOAA to make a quiet revision that reinstated July 1932 as the Hottest month on record.

You see, " homogenizing " ( manipulating ) temperature data to arrive at a predetermined conclusion isn't Science, its FRAUD

I wish those on the left would learn the difference.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Please ignore the headline and read the article, you'll see there's not all that much space between this one study, and ALL the other studies out there.

" Global warming " only exist in Computer models built on " homogenized " ( manipulated ) data.

I don't need to read the article or any pro-AGW drivel to know that people like you are being Conned.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

The Models ARE wrong.

Global warming exist only in Computer models that are constructed using manipulated data.

For example ; the NOAA claimed that July 2012 was the hottest month on record, surpassing July 1932.

They made the claim based on their own " Homogenized " ( manipulated ) temperature data.

Well a REAL SCIENTIST looked into their claim and exposed it as the fraud that it was forcing the NOAA to make a quiet revision that reinstated July 1932 as the Hottest month on record.

You see, " homogenizing " ( manipulating ) temperature data to arrive at a predetermined conclusion isn't Science, its FRAUD

I wish those on the left would learn the difference.

And yet this study says they are not wrong. And every other study. And all you have is misrepresentations of what reality is.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I've only been here a short while, but threads like this make me even more skeptical about our future as a nation, or species.
Complete, shocking, and inexcusable scientific and mathetical illiteracy abounds. If this forum's members represent a cross-section of society at large, we are truly fubar'd.
 
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