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Putin Meets With Alexis Tsipras of Greece Amid E.U. Strains

MildSteel

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An interesting meeting that reveals the fractured nature of the EU. Furthermore, depending on how things pan out, it may be a sign of a rather significant shift in the balance of power in the Mediterranean. There has been quite a bit of Russian investment that has suffered because of the financial crisis. Not only that but Greece has been denied access to Russian markets at a time when its economy needs such support. If Russia can pull this one off, it would be quite significant. However, that is not likely. What it does do is put some pressure on the EU and the US to come to some sort of reasonable terms with Greece.

Welcoming the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, to Moscow at a time of badly strained relations between Russia and Europe, President Vladimir V. Putin on Wednesday declared that the visit “could not have come at a better time.”

Mr. Tsipras, who is in tough negotiations with fellow European leaders over international financial assistance that Greece needs to avoid bankruptcy, arrived here on Tuesday night. His visit has raised eyebrows across the Continent because of a perception that he may be trying to gain leverage by cozying up to Mr. Putin.

Although Greek officials have said that Mr. Tsipras would not use the visit to appeal directly for financial assistance from Mr. Putin, the prime minister’s public criticism of Western sanctions against Russia as “a road to nowhere” has heightened concerns that the visit is evidence of emerging cracks in European unity over the Kremlin’s policies in Ukraine.

Appearing briefly together at the Kremlin before their meeting on Wednesday afternoon, the two men appeared relaxed, with Mr. Putin in a suit and tie, and Mr. Tsipras dressed more casually in a blue blazer and a white shirt open at the collar.

Greece, like some other European countries, has suffered from Russian countersanctions barring the import of agricultural products, and Mr. Putin emphasized that trade would be a primary focus of the talks.

“We need to discuss the issues of recovery of the trade rate of growth,” he said, noting that trade between Greece and Russia had doubled from 2009 to 2013, but last year dropped by 40 percent.

“This is why we have to recover the rate of growth,” Mr. Putin said.

Expounding on his point that the meeting was well timed, Mr. Putin noted that it was occurring just before Orthodox Easter, and that Greece and Russia share “common spiritual roots.”

Mr. Tsipras said he expected their meeting to address “stability and security” in the broadest sense of those terms.

For Russia, the visit is a welcome departure from the mostly tense interactions between the Kremlin and the West over Ukraine, including mounting frustration over the lack of movement toward implementing the political components of a cease-fire agreement signed in February that was brokered by Mr. Putin, President François Hollande of France, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel.
...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/world/europe/putin-russia-alexis-tsipras-greece-financial-crisis.html?_r=0
 
Greece has no choice, their economic model is floating in a toilet bowl and we are ever closer to their confrontation with their creditors. Including Germany.

Speak of. Of course the same day that Greece talks to Russia happens to be when Greece finally put a price tag on WWII reparations. Greece says Germany owes it €278.7 billion for various reasons related to WWII (everything from occupation to stolen archaeological objects.)

It really is clear that those in charge in Greece have lost their collective minds.
 
An interesting meeting that reveals the fractured nature of the EU. Furthermore, depending on how things pan out, it may be a sign of a rather significant shift in the balance of power in the Mediterranean. There has been quite a bit of Russian investment that has suffered because of the financial crisis. Not only that but Greece has been denied access to Russian markets at a time when its economy needs such support. If Russia can pull this one off, it would be quite significant. However, that is not likely. What it does do is put some pressure on the EU and the US to come to some sort of reasonable terms with Greece.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/world/europe/putin-russia-alexis-tsipras-greece-financial-crisis.html?_r=0

My original worry was Greece trades a Naval Base for Financial assistance after it leaves the Euro.

But Russia just doesn't have the cash for that.... China on the other hand does.

I wouldn't actually expect too much to come from this, Greece is bound by certain agreements for as long as it remains part of the EU and so this to me looks more like a political stunt aimed at getting their European creditors jittery.
 
My original worry was Greece trades a Naval Base for Financial assistance after it leaves the Euro.

But Russia just doesn't have the cash for that.... China on the other hand does.

Actually Russia could pull it off. They have reserves and could get a loan. Not only that but the price of oil will rebound and as such, Russia is not such a risky bet on such a loan. It would put them in a much stronger position in the Mediterranean. I don't think that Greece really wants to get that deep in bed with Russia however. But they might, if forced into a corner.

I wouldn't actually expect too much to come from this, Greece is bound by certain agreements for as long as it remains part of the EU and so this to me looks more like a political stunt aimed at getting their European creditors jittery.

Yeah, most likely a show to demonstrate that Greece could change the geopolitical landscape if they are not given some sort of deal that is reasonable. As such, I really don't expect much to come of it in terms of Greece moving towards Russia in the way that you described. It will however result in Greece getting some terms that are more favorable from the EU in return for financial assistance.
 
Greece has no choice, their economic model is floating in a toilet bowl and we are ever closer to their confrontation with their creditors. Including Germany.

Speak of. Of course the same day that Greece talks to Russia happens to be when Greece finally put a price tag on WWII reparations. Greece says Germany owes it €278.7 billion for various reasons related to WWII (everything from occupation to stolen archaeological objects.)

It really is clear that those in charge in Greece have lost their collective minds.

I don't think they have lost their minds at all. Actually what they are doing is quite intelligent. They should have exited the EU back in 2008. They would be in a much better position now if they had.
 
Actually Russia could pull it off. They have reserves and could get a loan. Not only that but the price of oil will rebound and as such, Russia is not such a risky bet on such a loan. It would put them in a much stronger position in the Mediterranean. I don't think that Greece really wants to get that deep in bed with Russia however. But they might, if forced into a corner.

Regardless of if oil rebounds soon or not, if I've read correctly Greece needs about 200 Billion to begin to do what the government wants to do...

That's 10% of Russias GDP right there, you gotta remember Russia is only a $2 Trillion economy, that's not a whole lot of give for a loan of that size.

Yeah, most likely a show to demonstrate that Greece could change the geopolitical landscape if they are not given some sort of deal that is reasonable. As such, I really don't expect much to come of it in terms of Greece moving towards Russia in the way that you described. It will however result in Greece getting some terms that are more favorable from the EU in return for financial assistance.

Thing is Greeces petulant behavior has already pushed them to a point where they would not be missed.

This latest spat with Germany and the reparations will get Greece nowhere and my far fetched theory about Russia doesn't hold up to scrutiny when you analyze them numbers.... China on the other hand is a dark horse in this scenario.

For China, it's a 2% of GDP question.
 
Regardless of if oil rebounds soon or not, if I've read correctly Greece needs about 200 Billion to begin to do what the government wants to do...

That's 10% of Russias GDP right there, you gotta remember Russia is only a $2 Trillion economy, that's not a whole lot of give for a loan of that size.

Russia has 360 billion USD in foreign reserves. They could use part of that and get a loan for the rest. China and India could most certainly facilitate such a loan. Remember there is the BRICS alliance. And while both China and India will take advantage of Russia, both, especially China, are not comfortable with the way in which the U.S. has been throwing its weight around. They are certainly going to keep Russia on life support at the very least as a hedge against U.S. hegemony. Such a loan might suit their purposes well.


Thing is Greeces petulant behavior has already pushed them to a point where they would not be missed.

This latest spat with Germany and the reparations will get Greece nowhere and my far fetched theory about Russia doesn't hold up to scrutiny when you analyze them numbers.... China on the other hand is a dark horse in this scenario.

For China, it's a 2% of GDP question.

Of course Germany does not give a damn if Greece leaves the EU. But you can bet, the U.S. certainly gives a damn about Russia being able to access the Mediterranean through a Greek naval base. As such there will definitely be pressure on the EU as a result of this.
 
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An interesting meeting that reveals the fractured nature of the EU. Furthermore, depending on how things pan out, it may be a sign of a rather significant shift in the balance of power in the Mediterranean. There has been quite a bit of Russian investment that has suffered because of the financial crisis. Not only that but Greece has been denied access to Russian markets at a time when its economy needs such support. If Russia can pull this one off, it would be quite significant. However, that is not likely. What it does do is put some pressure on the EU and the US to come to some sort of reasonable terms with Greece.



http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/world/europe/putin-russia-alexis-tsipras-greece-financial-crisis.html?_r=0

The Europeans have stuck together a miserable excuse for a Union. And now their populations like Greeks or Spaniards and neighbors like Georgia, Ukraine or Syria are paying the price for the arrogance, illegality and unprofessional handling of three generations of dishonest and largely corrupt party politics and politicians that bred.

Sorrily it is this instant in time the US has chosen to leave them with some responsibility for their area.
 
The Europeans have stuck together a miserable excuse for a Union. And now their populations like Greeks or Spaniards and neighbors like Georgia, Ukraine or Syria are paying the price for the arrogance, illegality and unprofessional handling of three generations of dishonest and largely corrupt party politics and politicians that bred.

Sorrily it is this instant in time the US has chosen to leave them with some responsibility for their area.

Although much of what you said is most certainly true, you can bet the U.S. would be very concerned about the prospects of a Russian naval base in Greece. As such, there will be some pressure on the E.U. to cut Greece a reasonable deal.
 
An interesting meeting that reveals the fractured nature of the EU. Furthermore, depending on how things pan out, it may be a sign of a rather significant shift in the balance of power in the Mediterranean. There has been quite a bit of Russian investment that has suffered because of the financial crisis. Not only that but Greece has been denied access to Russian markets at a time when its economy needs such support. If Russia can pull this one off, it would be quite significant. However, that is not likely. What it does do is put some pressure on the EU and the US to come to some sort of reasonable terms with Greece.

Greece is desperately seeking increased leverage. However, Greece very likely has far more to lose if it exits the EU than if it stays in the EU. Were Greece to become a de facto Russian puppet in EU meetings via its regularly vetoing measures that would increase or sustain pressure on Russia, its days in the EU would be numbered.

Russia is currently under economic and financial pressure. Russia will not deal with Greece in an altruistic fashion. It would seek significant concessions that benefit its interests in exchange for significant financial aid. President Putin is very focused on advancing Russia's interests.

The EU is not naive. It has a pretty good understanding of President Putin. It also understands that Greece won't materially increase its bargaining position in its outreach to Russia given the above trade-offs, especially now that the risk of contagion for a Greek exit is lower than it was a few years ago.

In the end, Greece might secure some assistance from Russia, but it probably won't be substantial, much less an alternative to the EU's/IMF's package. Greece cannot make the kind of commitments Russia would seek for a full-fledged financial rescue without inflicting even greater harm on itself (possible loss of EU membership, loss of access to the Common Market that would more than offset any increased economic activity with Russia, undermined standing within NATO, etc.). Indeed, the EU might not find a modest Russian package too objectionable, as it could spread the proverbial risk in helping Greece through its challenges.
 
Greece has no choice, their economic model is floating in a toilet bowl and we are ever closer to their confrontation with their creditors. Including Germany.

Speak of. Of course the same day that Greece talks to Russia happens to be when Greece finally put a price tag on WWII reparations. Greece says Germany owes it €278.7 billion for various reasons related to WWII (everything from occupation to stolen archaeological objects.)

It really is clear that those in charge in Greece have lost their collective minds.

I am not so sure about that. Greek debt cannot be paid back. We have known that since 2008. Since then it has been only a question of who takes the hit and how to disguise it from the populations that must.

And as far as the WW2 stuff. Germany has for decades treated the thing in a devastating way. Remember how they treated the slave laborers? Waiting till most had died before international pressure became so high that they could no longer wait? And now to use the title of the 4+1 treaty saying it is not a formal "peace treaty" and thus avoiding paying back debts (10 billions Euro) that they made in Athens literally at gunpoint.

They are quite right to demand that cash. Whether the total is 110 billions or 315 billions of Euros is something else. But it is a substantial amount that the Germans used to build their economy after the war and the Greeks did not get back.
 
Although much of what you said is most certainly true, you can bet the U.S. would be very concerned about the prospects of a Russian naval base in Greece. As such, there will be some pressure on the E.U. to cut Greece a reasonable deal.

The Chinese are allready building a naval base in Piräus. At this point it is still merchant, but we shall see.
 
Greece is desperately seeking increased leverage. However, Greece very likely has far more to lose if it exits the EU than if it stays in the EU. Were Greece to become a de facto Russian puppet in EU meetings via its regularly vetoing measures that would increase or sustain pressure on Russia, its days in the EU would be numbered.

Russia is currently under economic and financial pressure. Russia will not deal with Greece in an altruistic fashion. It would seek significant concessions that benefit its interests in exchange for significant financial aid. President Putin is very focused on advancing Russia's interests.

The EU is not naive. It has a pretty good understanding of President Putin. It also understands that Greece won't materially increase its bargaining position in its outreach to Russia given the above trade-offs, especially now that the risk of contagion for a Greek exit is lower than it was a few years ago.

In the end, Greece might secure some assistance from Russia, but it probably won't be substantial, much less an alternative to the EU's/IMF's package. Greece cannot make the kind of commitments Russia would seek for a full-fledged financial rescue without inflicting even greater harm on itself (possible loss of EU membership, loss of access to the Common Market that would more than offset any increased economic activity with Russia, undermined standing within NATO, etc.). Indeed, the EU might not find a modest Russian package too objectionable, as it could spread the proverbial risk in helping Greece through its challenges.

Why should Greece leave the EU? Just default and introduce a parallel currency. Details need working out and the EU is vindictive. But that was the best strategy 7 years ago and remains so.
 
Why should Greece leave the EU? Just default and introduce a parallel currency. Details need working out and the EU is vindictive. But that was the best strategy 7 years ago and remains so.

I'm not arguing that Greece should leave the EU. I am suggesting that if it were to become a de facto Russian puppet, the EU might seek to revoke its membership. Such a situation would also raise legitimate questions about Greece's reliability as a NATO partner. Greece has too much to lose. It won't become such a de facto puppet. Therefore, significant financial relief won't be forthcoming from Russia, though more modest assistance is possible. In turn, Greece's outreach to Russia won't materially strengthen its weak bargaining position.
 
"Athens has not formally asked Moscow for financial help to pay off its debt, Russian President Putin said after he met with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Moscow on Wednesday.

“The Greek side did not contact us with any requests for help,” the Russian president said, when asked by a journalist whether Russia could help Greece with its debt burden."
http://rt.com/business/247921-russia-greece-putin-tsipras/
 
I'm not arguing that Greece should leave the EU. I am suggesting that if it were to become a de facto Russian puppet, the EU might seek to revoke its membership. Such a situation would also raise legitimate questions about Greece's reliability as a NATO partner. Greece has too much to lose. It won't become such a de facto puppet. Therefore, significant financial relief won't be forthcoming from Russia, though more modest assistance is possible. In turn, Greece's outreach to Russia won't materially strengthen its weak bargaining position.

NATO partner or slave to International Bankers? One man's sweet meats is another man's poison. Russia's decision to run the Turkish Stream pipeline to Greece was a stroke of genius. First, Russia eliminates the untrustworthy Ukrainians in Kiev from the Gas Transit Business. Second, Greece is given the opportunity to make jobs and money for Greeks by becoming the new Gas Transit hub. This is a two way street and not a screw job as the USA poodle EU was attempting by excessive demands on the South Stream pipeline. A simple failure generated by greed and bad politics. Greece positions itself to have an option if default is necessary, and it may be. The IMF expects to exert National control of the Nations indebted to it. Or, stated amother way, the Bankers want to run the World. An oversimplification, but true.
 
I'm not arguing that Greece should leave the EU. I am suggesting that if it were to become a de facto Russian puppet, the EU might seek to revoke its membership. Such a situation would also raise legitimate questions about Greece's reliability as a NATO partner. Greece has too much to lose. It won't become such a de facto puppet. Therefore, significant financial relief won't be forthcoming from Russia, though more modest assistance is possible. In turn, Greece's outreach to Russia won't materially strengthen its weak bargaining position.

So described, the Greeks good improve their negotiation position quite a bit. I am not sure that the EU can push Greece out of the Union legally. But having seen the way the EU handles law, I am sure they would be able to kick a (small) country out, especially with the ruling court being European.
 
Greece is desperately seeking increased leverage. However, Greece very likely has far more to lose if it exits the EU than if it stays in the EU. Were Greece to become a de facto Russian puppet in EU meetings via its regularly vetoing measures that would increase or sustain pressure on Russia, its days in the EU would be numbered.

Russia is currently under economic and financial pressure. Russia will not deal with Greece in an altruistic fashion. It would seek significant concessions that benefit its interests in exchange for significant financial aid. President Putin is very focused on advancing Russia's interests.

The EU is not naive. It has a pretty good understanding of President Putin. It also understands that Greece won't materially increase its bargaining position in its outreach to Russia given the above trade-offs, especially now that the risk of contagion for a Greek exit is lower than it was a few years ago.

In the end, Greece might secure some assistance from Russia, but it probably won't be substantial, much less an alternative to the EU's/IMF's package. Greece cannot make the kind of commitments Russia would seek for a full-fledged financial rescue without inflicting even greater harm on itself (possible loss of EU membership, loss of access to the Common Market that would more than offset any increased economic activity with Russia, undermined standing within NATO, etc.). Indeed, the EU might not find a modest Russian package too objectionable, as it could spread the proverbial risk in helping Greece through its challenges.

I hear what you are saying, but it appears to me that EU membership is doing Greece more harm than good. It's hard for me to understand how staying in the EU benefits Greece at this point. I'm open to hearing the case.
 
The Chinese are allready building a naval base in Piräus. At this point it is still merchant, but we shall see.

I don't think a Chinese naval base in Greece would mean a whole lot. A Russian base would have quite substantial meaning as it would allow them to offset NATO power in Turkey which currently contains Russian power to the Caspian sea area.
 
I hear what you are saying, but it appears to me that EU membership is doing Greece more harm than good. It's hard for me to understand how staying in the EU benefits Greece at this point. I'm open to hearing the case.

A number of reasons:

1. Greece's access to major export markets (Italy and Germany are its 2nd and 3rd biggest export markets): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2050.html#gr
2. Its banks have access to the ECB and that access has averted destructive runs on the Greek financial system despite Greece's prolonged debt-driven economic contraction
3. Were Greece to exit the EU, it would have no access to international financial markets. Given its large trade deficit and inability to meet debt obligations without assistance, Greece would wind up in a much more severe economic crisis than is the case today.
 
I hear what you are saying, but it appears to me that EU membership is doing Greece more harm than good. It's hard for me to understand how staying in the EU benefits Greece at this point. I'm open to hearing the case.

Greece entered into to the Eu under false pretenses and continued to misrepresent their Financial position until 2008.

They also violated the Maastricht treatys limits on deficit spending, a Treaty the signed.

They were corrupt and as they grew their public sector and marginalized their private sector they borrrowed to make up for their budget shortfalls disdistributing worthless bonds throughout European banks.

The Russians ( or anyone else ) would be fools to loan that Government a dime, especially now.

The one Nation ( Germany ) that tried to help them was accused of 70 year old war crimes by the new Greek PM.

Because they concentrated on growing their Public Sector at the expense of their private sector for so long they have a long hard road ahead of them and its 100 percent their fault.
 
A number of reasons:

1. Greece's access to major export markets (Italy and Germany are its 2nd and 3rd biggest export markets): https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2050.html#gr
2. Its banks have access to the ECB and that access has averted destructive runs on the Greek financial system despite Greece's prolonged debt-driven economic contraction
3. Were Greece to exit the EU, it would have no access to international financial markets. Given its large trade deficit and inability to meet debt obligations without assistance, Greece would wind up in a much more severe economic crisis than is the case today.

1. I don't think a Greek exit from the EU would lock it out of markets in Italy. Germany, perhaps, but again not likely.
2. & 3. If Greece were to obtain financial backing from Russia such that it did not default on its debt, I don't think that bank runs would be likely and they would continue to have access to financial markets.

That said, if they had actually done this back in 2008, they would be over the worst of it and would be on the road to recovery now, even without funding from Russia.
 
Greece entered into to the Eu under false pretenses and continued to misrepresent their Financial position until 2008.

They also violated the Maastricht treatys limits on deficit spending, a Treaty the signed.

They were corrupt and as they grew their public sector and marginalized their private sector they borrrowed to make up for their budget shortfalls disdistributing worthless bonds throughout European banks.

The Russians ( or anyone else ) would be fools to loan that Government a dime, especially now.

The one Nation ( Germany ) that tried to help them was accused of 70 year old war crimes by the new Greek PM.

Because they concentrated on growing their Public Sector at the expense of their private sector for so long they have a long hard road ahead of them and its 100 percent their fault.

Actually the Russians have some significant geo political interests that would make loaning Greece money rather attractive, particularly if they could station a naval base there. That is not likely though.
 
I don't think a Chinese naval base in Greece would mean a whole lot. A Russian base would have quite substantial meaning as it would allow them to offset NATO power in Turkey which currently contains Russian power to the Caspian sea area.

That is true. A second Mediterranean naval base would certainly be more important atm than the Chinese one.
 
Greece made good its €448m payment to the IMF today. Vladimir Putin offered Greece no financial aid Wednesday but Russia is considering advancing Greece funds based on future profits it could earn from shipping Russian gas to Europe as part of a pipeline extension. Eurozone deputy finance ministers have given Greece six days to provide a more comprehensive package of reform measures. A meeting on April 24 will determine whether any additional bailout funds will be forthcoming.
 
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