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US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say

Rogue Valley

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US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say

February 2, 2015

With Russian-backed separatists pressing their attacks in Ukraine, NATO’s military commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, now supports providing defensive weapons and equipment to Kiev’s beleaguered forces, and an array of administration and military officials appear to be edging toward that position, American officials said Sunday. President Obama has made no decisions on providing such lethal assistance. But after a series of striking reversals that Ukraine’s forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is taking a fresh look at the question of military aid.

Secretary of State John Kerry, who plans to visit Kiev on Thursday, is open to new discussions about providing lethal assistance, as is Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is leaving his post soon, backs sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainian forces. In recent months, Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, has resisted proposals to provide lethal assistance, several officials said. But one official who is familiar with her views insisted that Ms. Rice was now prepared to reconsider the issue.

Michèle A. Flournoy, a former senior Pentagon official who is a leading candidate to serve as defense secretary if Hillary Rodham Clinton is elected president, joined in preparing the report. Others include James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral who served as the top NATO military commander, and Ivo Daalder, the ambassador to NATO during Mr. Obama’s first term.

In recent weeks, Russia has shipped a large number of heavy weapons to support the separatists’ offensive in eastern Ukraine, including T-80 and T-72 tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems, artillery and armored personnel carriers, Western officials say. Some of the weapons are too sophisticated to be used by hastily trained separatists, a Western official said. NATO officials estimate that about 1,000 Russian military and intelligence personnel are supporting the separatist offensive while Ukrainian officials insist that the number is much higher.

Supported by the Russians, the separatists have captured the airport at Donetsk and are pressing to take Debaltseve, a town that sits aside a critical rail junction. All told, the separatists have captured 500 square kilometers — about 193 square miles — of additional territory in the past four months, NATO says. The assessment of some senior Western officials is that the Kremlin’s goal is to replace the Minsk agreement with an accord that would be more favorable to the Kremlin’s interests and would leave the separatists with a more economically viable enclave.

The administration’s deliberations were described by a range of senior Pentagon, administration and Western officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were talking about internal discussions. “A comprehensive approach is warranted, and we agree that defensive equipment and weapons should be part of that discussion.” the Pentagon official said.
With his economy already tanking, such battlefield assistance *could* dramatically change the calculus of Vladimir Putin. It is a huge decision. I would speculate that neighboring European states who are alarmed by Russian aggression may follow any such US lead in this regard.
 
Simpleχity;1064265871 said:
US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say


With his economy already tanking, such battlefield assistance *could* dramatically change the calculus of Vladimir Putin. It is a huge decision. I would speculate that neighboring European states who are alarmed by Russian aggression may follow any such US lead in this regard.

As the largest Arms Dealer in the World, you have to chase profits where you can find them. Ukraine has the potential for a very profitable war for the USA Militaty Industrial Complex, don't you think? I mean, for a war to have even a modicum of success, you have to kill a bunch of ignorant homo sapiens. More correctly, the ignorant lead to the wholesale killing of the innocents would be a more correct statement. That's just the War Business, don't ya' know? Goebbels says it's easy to lead people to war. Just demonize somebody and keep doing it with MSM control. Child's play. War is a great thing if it buys you a new Cadillac or an island or an airplane and screw a bunch of collaterol damage, often referred to as the dead and dying. Bleeding heart liberal wimps, don't ya' know? Bottom line for business and profits. Send them truckloads of weapons, soldiers, planes, tanks, etc. and I'll put in my order for my new Caddie.
 
Simpleχity;1064265871 said:
US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say


With his economy already tanking, such battlefield assistance *could* dramatically change the calculus of Vladimir Putin. It is a huge decision. I would speculate that neighboring European states who are alarmed by Russian aggression may follow any such US lead in this regard.

I would prefer the Europeans foot the bill. They messed this up and should pay its fixing.
 
Simpleχity;1064265871 said:
US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say


With his economy already tanking, such battlefield assistance *could* dramatically change the calculus of Vladimir Putin. It is a huge decision. I would speculate that neighboring European states who are alarmed by Russian aggression may follow any such US lead in this regard.

Let's see how many countries Obama can arm before he leaves the white house. He's tackled the middle east, and now Ukraine is his next fix. Lol remember when he won the peace prize? lolol
 
As the largest Arms Dealer in the World, you have to chase profits where you can find them.
Oh, I don't know about that. One can find Kalashnikov's everywhere in the world. Which reminds me... I'll give you a nice travel tip. There is a Kalashnikov museum in Izhevsk, Russia, the city where the Kalashnikov weapons factory is located. After paying a fee to gain entrance, you are provided purple shower caps to place over your shoes. Honest to God. The exhibits are nifty but the biggest surprise lurks in the basement. There is a shooting range to fire Kalashnikov weapons! Hot damn! I've never seen a museum quite like this anywhere else.
 
Simpleχity;1064265871 said:
US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say


With his economy already tanking, such battlefield assistance *could* dramatically change the calculus of Vladimir Putin. It is a huge decision. I would speculate that neighboring European states who are alarmed by Russian aggression may follow any such US lead in this regard.

Ok, lets assume US supplied more lethal weapons... what's next?!?
Especially with Putin explicitly stating in the past that Russia wouldn't let DNR/LNR to fall.

Fallen.
 
Ok, lets assume US supplied more lethal weapons... what's next?!?
Especially with Putin explicitly stating in the past that Russia wouldn't let DNR/LNR to fall.

Fallen.

Good point, ergo Putin will supply more arms. The Kiev Junta is having difficutly finding enough
cannon fodder to feed the Eastern War. Not much enthusiasm to kill other Ukrainians, ergo the
USA will send more contractors to Ukraine. End result is that all the arms dealers will profit
handsomely and all of Ukraine will be economically destitute and at the mercy of the World's
oligarchs. A great success story for Big Money multiNational Corporatism and the bottom feeding
Central Banks..
 
Ok, lets assume US supplied more lethal weapons... what's next?!?
Especially with Putin explicitly stating in the past that Russia wouldn't let DNR/LNR to fall.

Fallen.
That question is far beyond my purview. Putin hasn't responded positively to diplomacy and sanctions. Non-lethal options are dwindling.

Flournoy is a brilliant former Obama DoD appointee and he listens to her. If Rice comes on-board, the circle is complete.
 
Simpleχity;1064265871 said:
US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say


With his economy already tanking, such battlefield assistance *could* dramatically change the calculus of Vladimir Putin. It is a huge decision. I would speculate that neighboring European states who are alarmed by Russian aggression may follow any such US lead in this regard.

Arming Ukraine is really stupid. We could give them all the money in the world. They would never fend off Russia if Russia really wanted Ukraine...This is a waste of time
 
Ok, lets assume US supplied more lethal weapons... what's next?!?
Especially with Putin explicitly stating in the past that Russia wouldn't let DNR/LNR to fall.

Fallen.

Good point. Russia can send far more, far faster than the US can.

US military aid cannot win the war. In the end, the Ukrainians, as a people, must demonstrate they have the will to fight and the skills to win. They can defeat the rebels with their current weapons if used skillfully. The US should send more "force multipliers" (the latest radios, artillery radars, jamming devices, drones for "border patrol", robots, and data sharing devices for Ukrainian tanks etc) as well as logistics and armored warfare experts acting as "contractors". As a side note, the US has already provided weapons idnoirect weapons as 50 or so fully functioning T-72s were mysteriously brokered from Czech Republic to Ukraine.
 
Simpleχity;1064269860 said:
That question is far beyond my purview. Putin hasn't responded positively to diplomacy and sanctions. Non-lethal options are dwindling.

Flournoy is a brilliant former Obama DoD appointee and he listens to her. If Rice comes on-board, the circle is complete.

But that is the biggest and the most important question.
These days I don't have time to thoroughly read the entire report despite it being quite short, but I haven't seen anything there that even resembles a decent analysis of the situation in the past and what's more alarming no deep analysis of the consequences of such supplies.

Fallen.
 
Good point. Russia can send far more, far faster than the US can.

US military aid cannot win the war. In the end, the Ukrainians, as a people, must demonstrate they have the will to fight and the skills to win. They can defeat the rebels with their current weapons if used skillfully. The US should send more "force multipliers" (the latest radios, artillery radars, jamming devices, drones for "border patrol", robots, and data sharing devices for Ukrainian tanks etc) as well as logistics and armored warfare experts acting as "contractors". As a side note, the US has already provided weapons idnoirect weapons as 50 or so fully functioning T-72s were mysteriously brokered from Czech Republic to Ukraine.

I"ll change the blue a bit:
Neither Russia nor US can win the war with military means.
In the end, Ukrainians as a people - including Donbas residents, should decide how to shape their own future.

Fallen.
 
I"ll change the blue a bit:
Neither Russia nor US can win the war with military means.
In the end, Ukrainians as a people - including Donbas residents, should decide how to shape their own future.

Fallen.

The Ukrainians, as a people, have decided on a unified Ukraine. Donbass residents were then offered semi autonomous status in a unified Ukraine as well as fair and open election of their represenatives. Putin, however, dictated via the various rebel factions that that was unacceptable because it did not guarantee his desired result.
 
The Ukrainians, as a people, have decided on a unified Ukraine. Donbass residents were then offered semi autonomous status in a unified Ukraine as well as fair and open election of their represenatives. Putin, however, dictated via the various rebel factions that that was unacceptable because it did not guarantee his desired result.

Sigh.

I think we already had a discussion about the chronology of the conflict, possibly even several times ...

Fallen.
 
Sigh.

I think we already had a discussion about the chronology of the conflict, possibly even several times ...

Fallen.

At the end of the day, Poroshenko offered alot:

- The governors of the two provinces would be selected by direct election- guaranteeing that the governors would be local Russo Ukrainians.
- a three year period of increased autonomy
- amnesty to all rebel fighters who had not committed out right criminal acts (the vast majority of rebels would be allowed to return to their former lives)
- the Russian language's co-equal status Ukrainian for official purposes was re-instated

In short, Poroshenko gave the rebels pretty much what Putin gave the Chechens. Yet, even this was not enough. Ironically, it may well have been enough for the dwindling number of truly local rebels and their local commanders, but it was not enough for Putin.
 
At the end of the day, Poroshenko offered alot:

- The governors of the two provinces would be selected by direct election- guaranteeing that the governors would be local Russo Ukrainians.
- a three year period of increased autonomy
- amnesty to all rebel fighters who had not committed out right criminal acts (the vast majority of rebels would be allowed to return to their former lives)
- the Russian language's co-equal status Ukrainian for official purposes was re-instated

In short, Poroshenko gave the rebels pretty much what Putin gave the Chechens. Yet, even this was not enough. Ironically, it may well have been enough for the dwindling number of truly local rebels and their local commanders, but it was not enough for Putin.

Would be nice if you would state the dates for those offers.

Fallen.
 
Would be nice if you would state the dates for those offers.

Ukrainian parliament grants special status to the Donbass

Poroshenko signs law on special status for Donbass

The Special Status Law was annulled in late November after the rebels held a referendum on 2 November in violation of the Minsk Agreement, specifically...

9. Ensure early local elections in accordance with the law of Ukraine "about local government provisional arrangements in some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts" (law on the special status).

Ukraine had scheduled the Special Status Law elections for the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to take place on 7 December.
 
Neither Russia nor US can win the war with military means.
Even if the US provided lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, Russia still has numerous military advantages (i.e porous border, proximity logistics, etc)

In the end, Ukrainians as a people - including Donbas residents, should decide how to shape their own future.
Which cannot happen unless and until the Minsk Agreement is honored...

10. Withdraw the illegal armed groups, military equipment, as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine.
 
Simpleχity;1064273284 said:
Ukrainian parliament grants special status to the Donbass
Poroshenko signs law on special status for Donbass
The Special Status Law was annulled in late November after the rebels held a referendum on 2 November in violation of the Minsk Agreement, specifically...
Ukraine had scheduled the Special Status Law elections for the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to take place on 7 December.

I know the dates, but I want Cryptic to familiarize himself with them and to see what happened few weeks before these "generous concessions".

Simpleχity;1064273865 said:
Even if the US provided lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, Russia still has numerous military advantages (i.e porous border, proximity logistics, etc)
Which cannot happen unless and until the Minsk Agreement is honored...

Unfortunately, the Minsk agreements are dead for now, and both sides are to blame for that.

Fallen.
 
It's a complicated question. Sending even a few anti-air SAMS and anti-armored vehicle weapons would make matters almost impossible in Ukraine for Putin's take-over quest. It would take little and little cost to turn that conflict into an unending quagmire and Russians would tire of it fairly quickly.

What makes it complicated is Russia could then do the same against US in the ME.

We have the ability to virtually neutralize heavy vehicles and air power being used by Russia in Ukraine, but Russia could cause us a lot of problems in the ME in the same way in response.

Generally, the major powers have an unspoken deal that they won't release, sell or allow to be sold 1.) effective anti aircraft missiles and 2.) weaponry that can take out armored vehicles. That allows the major powers to remain major powers. The major powers draw a line on how they prick with each other for mutual interests.
 
Simpleχity;1064269549 said:
Oh, I don't know about that. One can find Kalashnikov's everywhere in the world. Which reminds me... I'll give you a nice travel tip. There is a Kalashnikov museum in Izhevsk, Russia, the city where the Kalashnikov weapons factory is located. After paying a fee to gain entrance, you are provided purple shower caps to place over your shoes. Honest to God. The exhibits are nifty but the biggest surprise lurks in the basement. There is a shooting range to fire Kalashnikov weapons! Hot damn! I've never seen a museum quite like this anywhere else.

America, arms-dealer to the world
Munitions is the one U.S. industry that's booming -- with devastating global consequences
 
Simpleχity;1064265871 said:
US considers supplying arms to Ukraine forces, officials say


With his economy already tanking, such battlefield assistance *could* dramatically change the calculus of Vladimir Putin. It is a huge decision. I would speculate that neighboring European states who are alarmed by Russian aggression may follow any such US lead in this regard.

About time we need to save them from this cult of personality brainwashing.



 
Last edited:
America, arms-dealer to the world
Munitions is the one U.S. industry that's booming -- with devastating global consequences

No, pot is the number one industry in the US right now.
 
Unfortunately, the Minsk agreements are dead for now, and both sides are to blame for that.
Although both sides continued to trade sporadic artillery/rocket fire from 5 September on-wards, it was rebel actions in mid-January that killed Minsk. Those actions included a public rejection of the Minsk Agreement by rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko who also announced a new multi-front offensive which initiated heavy fighting at the Donetsk Airport, heavy fighting around the rail junction of Debaltseve, and a rebel rocket attack on the city of Mariupol which killed 30 civilians and wounded over a hundred. Since the new rebel offensive began, rebels have acquired ~200 square miles of additional territory.

Pro-Russian rebels reject peace deal, launch new offensive
January 23, 2015

Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine rejected a previously signed peace deal Friday and launched a new multipronged offensive against Ukrainian government troops, upending recent European attempts to mediate an end to the fighting. The main separatist leader in the rebellious Donetsk region vowed to push Ukrainian soldiers out of the area and said insurgents would not take part in any more cease-fire talks. Another rebel went even further, saying they would not abide by a peace deal signed in September.


Regarding the US sending defensive lethal weapons to Ukraine, I now tend to think the New York Times article of Feb. 1 breaking this story was a trial balloon by the Obama administration to gauge domestic and foreign reaction. Asked about arming Ukraine yesterday in his confirmation hearing before Congress, SecDef nominee Ashton Carter stated; "I very much incline in that direction ... because I think we need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves." Clearly, such a statement would have been pre-vetted by the White House.

Which leads me to believe the decision has already been made. Looking at it pragmatically though, when it comes to Ukraine, Obama moves at a glacial pace. US Secretary of State John Kerry is scheduled to arrive in Kyiv today (2/5/15) for consultations.
 
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