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NATO flag lowered in Afghanistan as combat mission ends

annata said:
you're not telling me anything that isn't common knowledge, and to ask me "how many and how long"
is to ask particulars I'm not privy to.

It's extremely easy to criticize the war. I was against it too in terms of a counterinsurgency operation.
There have been more then enough SNAFU's , and I'm not going to make promises or predictions by using US/ISAF/NATO forces,
because that is never going to work.

If there is any chance for the Afghan gov't to succeed, it is not by killing all the Taliban. The goal has to be a negotiated settlement.
The problems are myriad. I've attempted to mention a few in this thread, but to detail them all would take "12 years". so to speak.

We are supposed to drawdown on the "political timeline" (an accurate assessment by Boehner) to embassy level by 2017.

I've given my ( + & - ) strategic evaluations of the situation at this point in time throughout this thread.
If you want to talk about anything specific - other then generalized doom - just do so and I'll give my best response.
Click to expand...



Mornin AT. :2wave: Did you see this? The US has paid out a 104 Billion for Afghanistan alone. :shock:



Afghanistan faces economic timebomb as NATO war ends......

After a decade of near double-digit growth, the Afghan economy has stalled in the last two years, hit by a disputed presidential election and the end of NATO's combat mission, which formally closed on Sunday. "As the withdrawal got nearer, investors in Afghanistan moved their money abroad -- they transferred it to Dubai, China, Pakistan, India, Turkey," he said.

Since 2002, America has pumped more than $104 billion into Afghanistan -- a figure that, when adjusted for inflation, surpasses the Marshall Plan that helped Europe rise from the ashes of World War II, according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), a US watchdog. But the bulk of this money has gone on combat operations rather than reconstruction and while Afghan forces are taking over the fight against the Taliban, their wages still come from overseas support. The Kabul government is expecting income this year of around $1.8 billion dollars -- less than the value of Afghanistan's opium crop, which feeds the coffers of the Taliban......snip~

Afghanistan faces economic timebomb as NATO war ends
 
JANFU said:
As I stated, 12 years to late. The place in a sinkhole.
Click to expand...
That understanding goes back far more than 12 years, centuries in fact, but it is a sinkhole, or stinkhole, where terrorists can congregate. It can be ignored until further atrocities occur or dealt with in a way only an Afghanistani can understand. The withdrawal of the troops only delays the inevitable, where more lives will be lost before another response is made. Same as Iraq.
 
Grant said:
That understanding goes back far more than 12 years, centuries in fact, but it is a sinkhole, or stinkhole, where terrorists can congregate. It can be ignored until further atrocities occur or dealt with in a way only an Afghanistani can understand. The withdrawal of the troops only delays the inevitable, where more lives will be lost before another response is made. Same as Iraq.
Click to expand...

You can stay in Afghanistan till the cows come home and it will not change. Change will only happen from inside the country. Pakistan may play a role, only due to Chinese pressure as they want to protect their investments and stop the export of terror to their own country. Though the Chinese problem can be laid at their feet due to a hardline stance.
The Taliban are split from hardline to those that open schools for girls.
There are more important areas where limited resources can be spent.
 
JANFU said:
You can stay in Afghanistan till the cows come home and it will not change. Change will only happen from inside the country. Pakistan may play a role, only due to Chinese pressure as they want to protect their investments and stop the export of terror to their own country. Though the Chinese problem can be laid at their feet due to a hardline stance. The Taliban are split from hardline to those that open schools for girls. There are more important areas where limited resources can be spent.
Click to expand...

It is how the situation is handled in the country, not just a matter of 'staying' there. The enemy has to be absolutely defeated and then the country rebuilt. Rebuilding with the Taliban still a major force did not, and cannot, work. They will regain power and, knowing that the Coalition is weak and will eventually retreat, will be more powerful than ever.
 
MMC said:
Mornin AT. :2wave: Did you see this? The US has paid out a 104 Billion for Afghanistan alone. :shock:



Afghanistan faces economic timebomb as NATO war ends......

After a decade of near double-digit growth, the Afghan economy has stalled in the last two years, hit by a disputed presidential election and the end of NATO's combat mission, which formally closed on Sunday. "As the withdrawal got nearer, investors in Afghanistan moved their money abroad -- they transferred it to Dubai, China, Pakistan, India, Turkey," he said.

Since 2002, America has pumped more than $104 billion into Afghanistan -- a figure that, when adjusted for inflation, surpasses the Marshall Plan that helped Europe rise from the ashes of World War II, according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), a US watchdog. But the bulk of this money has gone on combat operations rather than reconstruction and while Afghan forces are taking over the fight against the Taliban, their wages still come from overseas support. The Kabul government is expecting income this year of around $1.8 billion dollars -- less than the value of Afghanistan's opium crop, which feeds the coffers of the Taliban......snip~

Afghanistan faces economic timebomb as NATO war ends
Click to expand...
hello again MMC. Yes .

please continue reading your link:
Without the $8 billion a year in international aid currently guaranteed until at least 2016, the Afghan government is unable to pay the salaries of the 350,000 soldiers and police on the front line of battling the Taliban.

However, Afghanistan's NATO decade has brought huge economic growth -- GDP has risen from $2.5 billion in 2001 to more than $20 billion, according to the World Bank, boosted by transport, construction, telecoms and media
Click to expand...

I mentioned "extractive economy" before:

One sector which has caught investors' eyes more than any other is mining. The US Geological Survey has estimated the value of Afghanistan's mineral deposits, including gold, iron and copper, at between one and three trillion dollars.

Afghanistan needs to reform its law on mines, make the process of bidding for concessions more transparent, extend the rail network and tackle rampant corruption in existing mines
Click to expand...

^big lithium deposits also..

from this link below
Frustrated Afghans wonder who is in charge amid cabinet delays and Taliban attacks | GulfNews.com
Delays in filling cabinet posts and other government vacancies have left public agencies in disarray.

In one province, police officials have been fired and not replaced despite a rash of violent crime. In another, frustrated parents are calling their legislators to get copies of school records. In the capital, no phones were answered at one federal ministry last week — an unusual occurrence even by lax Afghan standards. In another ministry, idle office workers made a video of one another dancing in the halls, which was later shown to a reporter
Click to expand...

^ seems Ghani/Abdullah want to stamp out corruption, but not using qualified -if corruptible ministers, is allowing lower level corruption..

The opium trades doesn't just fill the Taliban coffers, at least some small amount makes it to the farmers, and I'm sure yet more corruption..
Country is in a real transition - see where it goes
 
Afghanistan conflict: Ghani queries troop exit deadline

Mr Ghani told US broadcaster CBS that "deadlines should not be dogmas".
If both parties, or, in this case, multiple partners, have done their best to achieve the objectives and progress is very real, then there should be willingness to re-examine a deadline," Mr Ghani told the 60 Minutes programme, in an interview to be screened by CBS on Sunday evening

Gen John Campbell, who commands the coalition's remaining forces in Afghanistan, told 60 Minutes separately he was confident Afghan security forces could prevent the country falling into the hands of militant groups like Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

"With the military they have here... this is not Iraq," he said. The Afghan military, he argued, was now the "number one respected institution in Afghanistan".
"Couple years ago, I probably wouldn't have said that but today it is," he said, speaking in Kabul.

BBC News - Afghanistan conflict: Ghani queries troop exit deadline

I think there is a provision in the BSA that both parties can agree to an extension, though US domestic politics would 'prolly preclude that
 
annata said:
Afghanistan conflict: Ghani queries troop exit deadline

Mr Ghani told US broadcaster CBS that "deadlines should not be dogmas".
If both parties, or, in this case, multiple partners, have done their best to achieve the objectives and progress is very real, then there should be willingness to re-examine a deadline," Mr Ghani told the 60 Minutes programme, in an interview to be screened by CBS on Sunday evening

Gen John Campbell, who commands the coalition's remaining forces in Afghanistan, told 60 Minutes separately he was confident Afghan security forces could prevent the country falling into the hands of militant groups like Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

"With the military they have here... this is not Iraq," he said. The Afghan military, he argued, was now the "number one respected institution in Afghanistan".
"Couple years ago, I probably wouldn't have said that but today it is," he said, speaking in Kabul.

BBC News - Afghanistan conflict: Ghani queries troop exit deadline

I think there is a provision in the BSA that both parties can agree to an extension, though US domestic politics would 'prolly preclude that
Click to expand...



Mornin AT. :2wave: He did more than just query.


Afghanistan: US should 're-examine' withdrawing from country.....

President Ghani's comments appear to be a tacit admission of what many analysts have noted: Despite the "end" of the Afghan war, Afghanistan remains embroiled in a conflict that shows no sign of ending any time soon. Indeed, the Taliban, which NATO removed from power in 2001 and which have since waged a resilient guerrilla war funded by opium sales, promised to continue to fight following what it called the Western forces' "defeat." The Monitor wrote that according to a Taliban spokesman, NATO “rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without having achieved anything substantial or tangible.”

The Christian Science Monitor's Dan Murphy wrote that the past year has been one of the deadliest in Afghanistan, with more than 4,000 Afghan police and military and nearly as many civilians killed in 2014. And despite Obama's claims that the US is "safer, and our nation is more secure" due to fighting in the Afghan war, Mr. Murphy writes that "There's no evidence to support that claim, and plenty to suggest the war has been a long, self-inflicted wound on the country."....snip~

Afghanistan: US should 're-examine' withdrawing from country
 
MMC said:
Mornin AT. :2wave: He did more than just query.


Afghanistan: US should 're-examine' withdrawing from country.....

President Ghani's comments appear to be a tacit admission of what many analysts have noted: Despite the "end" of the Afghan war, Afghanistan remains embroiled in a conflict that shows no sign of ending any time soon. Indeed, the Taliban, which NATO removed from power in 2001 and which have since waged a resilient guerrilla war funded by opium sales, promised to continue to fight following what it called the Western forces' "defeat." The Monitor wrote that according to a Taliban spokesman, NATO “rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without having achieved anything substantial or tangible.”

The Christian Science Monitor's Dan Murphy wrote that the past year has been one of the deadliest in Afghanistan, with more than 4,000 Afghan police and military and nearly as many civilians killed in 2014. And despite Obama's claims that the US is "safer, and our nation is more secure" due to fighting in the Afghan war, Mr. Murphy writes that "There's no evidence to support that claim, and plenty to suggest the war has been a long, self-inflicted wound on the country."....snip~

Afghanistan: US should 're-examine' withdrawing from country
Click to expand...

Greetings, MMC. :2wave:

Well, it's the first Moanday in the New Year! Ugh! There isn't enough coffee in the world to counter that, but I am trying to be optimistic about having a reasonably productive day anyway.

The Afghans are fighters, I'll give them that! Their war nearly bankrupted Russia, who eventually had to leave without gaining anything resembling a victory - what do we hope to gain by going down that same road? I guess my question is whether they want us there or don't they?
 
polgara said:
Greetings, MMC. :2wave:

Well, it's the first Moanday in the New Year! Ugh! There isn't enough coffee in the world to counter that, but I am trying to be optimistic about having a reasonably productive day anyway.

The Afghans are fighters, I'll give them that! Their war nearly bankrupted Russia, who eventually had to leave without gaining anything resembling a victory - what do we hope to gain by going down that same road? I guess my question is whether they want us there or don't they?
Click to expand...


The Taliban don't want us there Lady P. :2wave: Of course the puppet and his New Government are a bit worried. So they want us to stay. Naturally we are trying to pump up the Afghan Military and police. So they don't just walk away and give up.

Since we are not in it to win it. Nor really finish anything to a final ending. Then I say, bring all of our people out of there, don't give them anymore of our money. Then let the chips fall where they may. If it turns into another Libya. So be it, and let them over there deal with all of it.
 
MMC said:
The Taliban don't want us there Lady P. :2wave: Of course the puppet and his New Government are a bit worried. So they want us to stay. Naturally we are trying to pump up the Afghan Military and police. So they don't just walk away and give up.

Since we are not in it to win it. Nor really finish anything to a final ending. Then I say, bring all of our people out of there, don't give them anymore of our money. Then let the chips fall where they may. If it turns into another Libya. So be it, and let them over there deal with all of it.
Click to expand...

Are there any "good guys" in the ME? ISIS is definitely not among them if there are, and they are getting stronger by the day. I suppose the Afghan government has cause to worry, but what do they expect us to do to assist them? Evil needs to be fought, but those folks over there think differently than we do, and that's been the case for thousands of years. We aren't going to change that. Do we allow ISIS to continue to gobble up countries by sheer force of numbers and impose Sharia law on everyone over there whether they want it or not? It is a dilemma, and I don't know what the answer is. I do know that we can't afford to spend countless years and untold millions to maybe correct a problem not of our making.

In the battle of Thermopylae, 300 Spartans stood against the entire Persian army. They lost, but they changed history. Is tiny Afghanistan going to repeat history?
 
polgara said:
Are there any "good guys" in the ME? ISIS is definitely not among them if there are, and they are getting stronger by the day. I suppose the Afghan government has cause to worry, but what do they expect us to do to assist them? Evil needs to be fought, but those folks over there think differently than we do, and that's been the case for thousands of years. We aren't going to change that. Do we allow ISIS to continue to gobble up countries by sheer force of numbers and impose Sharia law on everyone over there whether they want it or not? It is a dilemma, and I don't know what the answer is. I do know that we can't afford to spend countless years and untold millions to maybe correct a problem not of our making.

In the battle of Thermopylae, 300 Spartans stood against the entire Persian army. They lost, but they changed history. Is tiny Afghanistan going to repeat history?
Click to expand...



Yeah there is Israel.....their good guys.

They made History beating us. Next up.....the Chinese for the repeat.
 
MMC said:
Mornin AT. :2wave: He did more than just query.


Afghanistan: US should 're-examine' withdrawing from country.....

President Ghani's comments appear to be a tacit admission of what many analysts have noted: Despite the "end" of the Afghan war, Afghanistan remains embroiled in a conflict that shows no sign of ending any time soon. Indeed, the Taliban, which NATO removed from power in 2001 and which have since waged a resilient guerrilla war funded by opium sales, promised to continue to fight following what it called the Western forces' "defeat." The Monitor wrote that according to a Taliban spokesman, NATO “rolled up its flag in an atmosphere of failure and disappointment without having achieved anything substantial or tangible.”

The Christian Science Monitor's Dan Murphy wrote that the past year has been one of the deadliest in Afghanistan, with more than 4,000 Afghan police and military and nearly as many civilians killed in 2014. And despite Obama's claims that the US is "safer, and our nation is more secure" due to fighting in the Afghan war, Mr. Murphy writes that "There's no evidence to support that claim, and plenty to suggest the war has been a long, self-inflicted wound on the country."....snip~

Afghanistan: US should 're-examine' withdrawing from country
Click to expand...
Morning to you 2 MMC
quite a change from Karzai, huh? What I'm concerned about is the "political deadline", as Boehner put it quite accurately, instead of looking at the situation. Reminds me of the political deadline for Gitmo.
The ANF are really fighting, and while we have air-support to the point of flying stand alone combat missions -what happens past 2017?

I's much rather evaluate as we go along. For sure Ghani is advocating a position here; why would he not do so given the rare 60minutes opportunity to speak directly to the uninformed American public?
 
MMC said:
Yeah there is Israel.....their good guys.

They made History beating us. Next up.....the Chinese for the repeat.
Click to expand...
I'd add Jordan to that list of true allies in the ME.
Egypt is come and go according to the needs, but Jordan has been stalwart
 
annata said:
Morning to you 2 MMC
quite a change from Karzai, huh? What I'm concerned about is the "political deadline", as Boehner put it quite accurately, instead of looking at the situation. Reminds me of the political deadline for Gitmo.
The ANF are really fighting, and while we have air-support to the point of flying stand alone combat missions -what happens past 2017?

I's much rather evaluate as we go along. For sure Ghani is advocating a position here; why would he not do so given the rare 60minutes opportunity to speak directly to the uninformed American public?
Click to expand...



Uhm.....the American People were watching NFL Football. Celebrating in bars and some driving home. I think they might have missed it. :2razz:
 
MMC said:
Uhm.....the American People were watching NFL Football. Celebrating in bars and some driving home. I think they might have missed it. :2razz:
Click to expand...
maybe. there are DVR's?
I was posting in general terms MMC; I see little if any coverage of AfPak "now that combat missions are over" according to Obama :roll:
 
annata said:
maybe. there are DVR's?
I was posting in general terms MMC; I see little if any coverage of AfPak "now that combat missions are over" according to Obama :roll:
Click to expand...

Unless Americans or NATO troops are killed. Then it will headline. You don't believe the General thinking he can prevent ISIS from coming in, if the Taliban accepts the terms to it, do you?

Already AQ is back in. The Taliban might just go for more the merrier.
 
MMC said:
Unless Americans or NATO troops are killed. Then it will headline. You don't believe the General thinking he can prevent ISIS from coming in, if the Taliban accepts the terms to it, do you?

Already AQ is back in. The Taliban might just go for more the merrier.
Click to expand...
I haven't seen that exact line of thought about ISIL.
I do believe ISIL is more specific to the ME -Baghdadi's claim to the caliphate or not -Zawahiri's influence is still the general rule in AfPak.

I'm assuming you mean if the Taliban accept a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan that would leaves ISIL as the new jihadist group capable.
In general I think Iran's influence carries more weight, which is why AQ can regroup there, but not Sunni ISIL.

It's very speculative though -the TTP Taliban are still the big players, with Pakistans overwhelming influence of Afghnistan
 
annata said:
I haven't seen that exact line of thought about ISIL.
I do believe ISIL is more specific to the ME -Baghdadi's claim to the caliphate or not -Zawahiri's influence is still the general rule in AfPak.

I'm assuming you mean if the Taliban accept a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan that would leaves ISIL as the new jihadist group capable.
In general I think Iran's influence carries more weight, which is why AQ can regroup there, but not Sunni ISIL.

It's very speculative though -the TTP Taliban are still the big players, with Pakistans overwhelming influence of Afghnistan
Click to expand...



We already know some of the Taliban in Pakistan are aligning with them. But The Taliban have some in Afghanistan that say they will join, if they think ISIS is capable.



Afghan Militants May Join ISIS Says Their Commander.....
The link-up could pose a renewed threat to an already fragile Afghanistan.

An Afghanistan-based militant group with links to the Taliban is considering aligning itself with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the BBC reports.

Commander Mirwais of the Hezb-e-Islami, a group notorious for its brutality, called ISIS fighters “great mujahideen,” and told the BBC his group was waiting to see if ISIS met the requirements for a true Islamic caliphate. “We pray for them,” he said, “and if we don’t see a problem in the way they operate, we will join them.”.....snip~

Afghan Militants Hezb-e-Islami May Join ISIS Says Their Commander
 
Still havent seen anyone say what this amounts to. Did we 'win'? Are we 'surrendering'?
 
MMC said:
We already know some of the Taliban in Pakistan are aligning with them. But The Taliban have some in Afghanistan that say they will join, if they think ISIS is capable.



Afghan Militants May Join ISIS Says Their Commander.....
The link-up could pose a renewed threat to an already fragile Afghanistan.

An Afghanistan-based militant group with links to the Taliban is considering aligning itself with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the BBC reports.

Commander Mirwais of the Hezb-e-Islami, a group notorious for its brutality, called ISIS fighters “great mujahideen,” and told the BBC his group was waiting to see if ISIS met the requirements for a true Islamic caliphate. “We pray for them,” he said, “and if we don’t see a problem in the way they operate, we will join them.”.....snip~

Afghan Militants Hezb-e-Islami May Join ISIS Says Their Commander
Click to expand...
yes. i'm familiar with Taliban going to Syria, but not the other way around..

On a side note I did see a claim by a Karzai aid that Mullah Omar was captured in Karachi, but that was never confirmed,
so I never posted it. Mullah Omar is alive and in Karachi, claims Afghan spy chief

Either way the Quetta Shura & Haqqani network are still the problem, still operating out of Pakistan
despite the Pashawar school shootings Pakistan Taliban warlord behind Peshawar school massacre vows MORE children will be slaughtered - Mirror Online
and the recent Paki crackdown since the Karachi airport bombing last year.

Then there are the Waziristan & (FATA) tribals to pacify. so it's a long slog, but I'm thinking that Pakistan ethinic's are tired of this
and see the TTP Taliban more of an insurgency than a Muslin national movement.

I'm also thinking most of Afghanistan views them the same..so once again it's going to have to be dealt with as it plays out..
Best I can analyze this
 
VanceMack said:
Still havent seen anyone say what this amounts to. Did we 'win'? Are we 'surrendering'?
Click to expand...

Are we surrendering? What kind of question is that? We took over Afghanistan in 3 days after the invasion. Since then, we've just been clearing out small towns of extremism. We won the war within days of entering Afghanistan. We took over their government and sent all of their leaders running for the hills, who are now dead.
 
11Bravo said:
Are we surrendering? What kind of question is that? We took over Afghanistan in 3 days after the invasion. Since then, we've just been clearing out small towns of extremism. We won the war within days of entering Afghanistan. We took over their government and sent all of their leaders running for the hills, who are now dead.
Click to expand...
Its a very honest question. Your response is relatively the same position I have had in both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The 'war' ended very early on with complete military success (I was there for both of them). So what exactly is it that is ending? I think that needs to be defined. Are we terminating the 'war on terror' against fundamentalist extremists? Since we HAVE been fighting for 11 years, WHO have we been fighting, why, and what is our metric for success?
 
annata said:
yes. i'm familiar with Taliban going to Syria, but not the other way around..

On a side note I did see a claim by a Karzai aid that Mullah Omar was captured in Karachi, but that was never confirmed,
so I never posted it. Mullah Omar is alive and in Karachi, claims Afghan spy chief


Either way the Quetta Shura & Haqqani network are still the problem, still operating out of Pakistan
despite the Pashawar school shootings Pakistan Taliban warlord behind Peshawar school massacre vows MORE children will be slaughtered - Mirror Online
and the recent Paki crackdown since the Karachi airport bombing last year.

Then there are the Waziristan & (FATA) tribals to pacify. so it's a long slog, but I'm thinking that Pakistan ethinic's are tired of this
and see the TTP Taliban more of an insurgency than a Muslin national movement.

I'm also thinking most of Afghanistan views them the same..so once again it's going to have to be dealt with as it plays out..
Best I can analyze this
Click to expand...


One of the Fab Five.....back in town already, huh?
 
VanceMack said:
Its a very honest question. Your response is relatively the same position I have had in both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The 'war' ended very early on with complete military success (I was there for both of them). So what exactly is it that is ending? I think that needs to be defined. Are we terminating the 'war on terror' against fundamentalist extremists? Since we HAVE been fighting for 11 years, WHO have we been fighting, why, and what is our metric for success?
Click to expand...

Sorry, I always get a little heated when I see that question.

-I would say that we are ending our combat mission. It's now a tactical training operation rather than a war. It's time for the Afghans to fight their own extremism. However, I really don't see this working.
 
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