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50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

Mr. Invisible said:
Like I said before, if you've been a postal worker for the past 40 years or so, you wouldn't think it at all necessary to know how to do things like coding and whatnot. Hell, most people who use computers and the internet have no idea how to code or how the internet actually works.
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But it's not a surprise that physical mail is going away, we've known for 20 years or so that e-mail was severely cutting into physical mail and anyone who sat as a postal worker for the past 20 years with their eyes clenched closed and their fingers in their ears and didn't do anything to prepare for the inevitable end of their job deserves what they get. They had a chance, the writing was on the wall and they ignored it. It doesn't have to be web design but there are plenty of jobs out there that people can get ready for if they see what's coming in the future.
 
Declan said:
If you are lazy when it comes to your education and planning, then you will be picking apples. Yes I have done farm work. Quite a bit of farm work and if the choice was to do it or be unemployed or living off other people, I would still choose farm work.
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A hundred years ago, something like 90% of all human labor was involved in the production of food. These days it's less than 10%. So thanks for using apple picking as an example. The problem is that nearly all industries are moving in the direction of fewer workers.

Heck, a lot of our products today aren't even manufactured at all. They are "virtual" products that are delivered at low cost or even no cost over the internet. I can't remember the last time I purchased a map. Or got film developed. Or held a home phone. Or used a piece of stationary.
 
imagep said:
Libertarians generally oppose government intervention into our economy.

In the future, probably much sooner than what most people think, unless we have more government intervention in our economy, there will not be enough income opportunities for every family to be able to have at least one income earner.

So basically, by being a libertarian, you are dooming your kids and grandkids to a life of poverty. Unless of course libertarians evolve as our economy does.

I have a very strong libertarian streak, I absolutely hate government intervention, and I oppose socialism and communism. I don't even agree that we should have means tested welfare, or subsidize anything for any reason. But I realize that due to changes in technology, the world is going to be a terrible place if we don't have appropriate government intervention to change the rules of capitalism so that they will work for most everyone as our economy changes.
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My kids won't be doomed to a life of poverty. They will hopefully go into the right fields and choose professions that won't be obsolete.

The government can't stop technology from replacing humans. It's been happening for generations.
 
imagep said:
Like HELL you say...




Guess I proved you wrong. 250,000 people paid $400 each to watch some dudes push buttons on a stage last month in Georgia.

By the way, my kid is in this video.
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I'm assuming it's some sort of tecno dance thing (can't watch it at the moment) there will always be a market for that stuff I suppose, however there is no way you'll ever see a punk rock , Rockabilly or a bluegrass band pushing buttons. People who like real music can tell bull****. There will always be a need and market for the arts. Musicians, painters, actors, poets, authors. People will always crave what is created by humans. How the hell is a computer going to write a book?
 
Cephus said:
But it's not a surprise that physical mail is going away, we've known for 20 years or so that e-mail was severely cutting into physical mail and anyone who sat as a postal worker for the past 20 years with their eyes clenched closed and their fingers in their ears and didn't do anything to prepare for the inevitable end of their job deserves what they get. They had a chance, the writing was on the wall and they ignored it. It doesn't have to be web design but there are plenty of jobs out there that people can get ready for if they see what's coming in the future.
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It's not only the postal worker who is loosing job security due to email. It's also printing companies, and paper manufacturers, and shipping companies, etc.

And that web design job? Yea, that's fairly new, but once that website is designed, it costs nothing to reproduce. And there are lots of "automatic" web design platforms and do it yourself web design systems which are replacing web designer jobs. It may be a stable field, but it's far from a rapidly growing field.
 
HenryChinaski said:
I'm assuming it's some sort of tecno dance thing (can't watch it at the moment) there will always be a market for that stuff I suppose, however there is no way you'll ever see a punk rock , Rockabilly or a bluegrass band pushing buttons. People who like real music can tell bull****. There will always be a need and market for the arts. Musicians, painters, actors, poets, authors. People will always crave what is created by humans. How the hell is a computer going to write a book?
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It's actually currently the highest paid genre of music, called EDM, and yes it evolved from tecno. Some of those dudes pushing buttons on stage are making 8 figures. Now how man rockabilly or bluegrass bands make that type of jack? Just shows where the demand is, and it ain't exactly where you seem to believe it is.

It's kinda funny that the genres that you mention are all pretty much dead. I haven't heard "punk rock" mentioned in probably three decades. You should really get out more.
 
imagep said:
It's not only the postal worker who is loosing job security due to email. It's also printing companies, and paper manufacturers, and shipping companies, etc.

And that web design job? Yea, that's fairly new, but once that website is designed, it costs nothing to reproduce. And there are lots of "automatic" web design platforms and do it yourself web design systems which are replacing web designer jobs. It may be a stable field, but it's far from a rapidly growing field.
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I'm talking about the specific case that was presented, that of a postal employee. Printing companies, paper manufacturers and the like, they've all seen the writing on the wall too. Either adjust to the coming reality or go out of business, that's how business operates.

And, of course, I said that it didn't have to be web design, there are plenty of jobs in the modern era that people can be trained for.
 
imagep said:
It's actually currently the highest paid genre of music, called EDM, and yes it evolved from tecno. Some of those dudes pushing buttons on stage are making 8 figures. Now how man rockabilly or bluegrass bands make that type of jack? Just shows where the demand is, and it ain't exactly where you seem to believe it is.

It's kinda funny that the genres that you mention are all pretty much dead. I haven't heard "punk rock" mentioned in probably three decades. You should really get out more.
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Well **** if that's the case I'll toss out my Social Distortion and Reverend Horton Heat records. Real music will always be relevant. It's like the difference between some processed velveeta and some really good upper Wisconsin aged cheddar. The processed **** feeds the instant need, the real cheese feeds that real long term desire. And if you think Rockabilly is a "dead genre" then you're the one who needs to get out.
 
imagep said:
Manufacturing has been migrating back to the US. Unfortunately, manufacturing jobs haven't.

Computers and robots can be operated just as cheaply in the US as in any country in the world. As we continue to automate and computerize, no country will have a particular economic advantage in the cost of production, so international trade will actually likely decrease.

Even China has been loosing manufacturing jobs, not to cheaper labor countries, but to automation.

I have no idea why you are trying to make this a political issue. I'm not a liberal, or even a democrat. It's not a political issue, it's a technology issue.
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It is a political issue and not a technology issue and you are the one who was talking about income distribution which is not a "technology issue". So the cable guy and the phone guy and the fiber guy just becomes the fiber guy. Job descriptions are meaningless. Civilization did not collapse when the typewriter repair guy went away.

The US runs about a trillion dollar a year deficit in capital investments, meaning Americans are sending more money overseas than America is receiving from foreign investment. It does not matter if your socks are made 100% by machines. Those machines need electricity, they need water for dyes and cooling and such, they need repairmen. China's dropping to 7.3% growth from 8.5% is not a trend that favors the US. The lack of water and electric are. I believe it was the Economist that recently had an article about the growing problem of businesses having production disrupted just because of water related issues. Eventually companies will migrate to the places that give them some advantage. A Nestle food processing plant will move into replace a closed textile mill. I recently read a news story about a newly constructed coal power plant being built in either Ohio or Illinois that is largely a municipal owned endeavor. They built next to the coal mine so that the reduced transportation cost of coal from next door offset the increased compliance cost because they were coal-fired. Businesses will continue to look for non-labor related advantage. I would imagine that energy/utility costs exceed labor costs in most large manufacturing facilities in the US. The person who assumed they would work at the textile mill might be able to work at the food processing plant, and the person who wanted to be a $60K a year miner might be a $35K a year lineman, but that does not mean that society will be involuntarily addled by computers.
 
tres borrachos said:
My kids won't be doomed to a life of poverty. They will hopefully go into the right fields and choose professions that won't be obsolete.....
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I hope you are right about that.

My fear for my kid is that he will go into a profession, that isn't obsolete, but just has far fewer jobs than it has qualified professionals. The problem is that few professions are likely to be growing fast enough to replace those that are shrinking.
 
HenryChinaski said:
Well **** if that's the case I'll toss out my Social Distortion and Reverend Horton Heat records. Real music will always be relevant. It's like the difference between some processed velveeta and some really good upper Wisconsin aged cheddar. The processed **** feeds the instant need, the real cheese feeds that real long term desire. And if you think Rockabilly is a "dead genre" then you're the one who needs to get out.
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What matters is not what you or I like, but what the masses are willing to purchase. I'll bet that a lot ore velveeta is sold than "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar".

For that matter, I guess I should "get out more" because I have never even heard of "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar":lamo
 
tres borrachos said:
The government can't stop technology from replacing humans. It's been happening for generations.
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With the result that we have more leisure time to spend with our families or, as Nancy Pelosi suggested, taking up writing or photography. Or trashing Nancy on Debate Politics, come to think of it..
 
Declan said:
It is a political issue and not a technology issue and you are the one who was talking about income distribution which is not a "technology issue". So the cable guy and the phone guy and the fiber guy just becomes the fiber guy. Job descriptions are meaningless. Civilization did not collapse when the typewriter repair guy went away.

The US runs about a trillion dollar a year deficit in capital investments, meaning Americans are sending more money overseas than America is receiving from foreign investment. It does not matter if your socks are made 100% by machines. Those machines need electricity, they need water for dyes and cooling and such, they need repairmen. China's dropping to 7.3% growth from 8.5% is not a trend that favors the US. The lack of water and electric are. I believe it was the Economist that recently had an article about the growing problem of businesses having production disrupted just because of water related issues. Eventually companies will migrate to the places that give them some advantage. A Nestle food processing plant will move into replace a closed textile mill. I recently read a news story about a newly constructed coal power plant being built in either Ohio or Illinois that is largely a municipal owned endeavor. They built next to the coal mine so that the reduced transportation cost of coal from next door offset the increased compliance cost because they were coal-fired. Businesses will continue to look for non-labor related advantage. I would imagine that energy/utility costs exceed labor costs in most large manufacturing facilities in the US. The person who assumed they would work at the textile mill might be able to work at the food processing plant, and the person who wanted to be a $60K a year miner might be a $35K a year lineman, but that does not mean that society will be involuntarily addled by computers.
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Jobs being replaced by technology is a technology issue. Distribution of income is an economic issue. Neither have to be political, unless we just want them to be, but to your point, I do agree that the solutions will largely be guided by politics.
 
Grant said:
With the result that we have more leisure time to spend with our families or, as Nancy Pelosi suggested, taking up writing or photography. Or trashing Nancy on Debate Politics, come to think of it..
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True. But she left out that you'd have less money.
 
imagep said:
What matters is not what you or I like, but what the masses are willing to purchase. I'll bet that a lot ore velveeta is sold than "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar".

For that matter, I guess I should "get out more" because I have never even heard of "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar":lamo
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The masses bought beanie babies too for awhile. The masses buy what they're told too music wise. They jump On fads and what's marketed to them, that is Until they develop a ear and crave music with more substance.
 
HenryChinaski said:
The masses bought beanie babies too for awhile. The masses buy what they're told too music wise. They jump On fads and what's marketed to them, that is Until they develop a ear and crave music with more substance.
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I don't disagree.

But regardless, it's becoming harder and harder to make a living wage in music, unless you have special connections. There are just way too many people pursing a shrinking market of financial opportunity in the music field. Anytime that competition increases without a corresponding increase in sales, profits will tend to fall.
 
HenryChinaski said:
You're right about one thing in that there is not as much revenue generated in music sales today due to technology, MP3 and the internet. Where bands have compensated for this lost revenue is live performance.
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i must challenge this presentation that live performance is going to offset the absence of recorded music income
fewer and fewer locales are offering live music. the audience does not appear as it once did, and it is cheaper to hire a DJ
there is simply not the demand for live music that there was back in the day

You can use pro-tool and cakewalk to your hearts content in a studio but no one is going to go to a venue to watch some dude push buttons on a stage.
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one of the best acts i have ever heard was crystal method. i believe that consists of two guys punching buttons in a very musical way

Do you really think that the Boston Symphony Orchestra could be replaced by two guys with synthesizers? Never happen.
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not sure what is happening elsewhere but our symphony, in the fifth fastest growing US economy, is near bankrupt. its costs exceed its income and it struggles on only because of local government subsidies
as with other live music, the demand for symphonic performances is significantly down

And all of this top 40 pop **** that is over produced with pro-tools is marketed to teens to twenty somethings who haven't developed an ear for what's real yet.
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doesn't matter what is 'real'. what matters is what the public is willing to buy. and if it is pro tools produced pap that is being purchased, then that is what will be made/played

People will always hunger for organic music.
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not familiar with what constitutes 'organic' music. is that music without any fertilizer? i do believe people will seek out music, within any era. but that music is subject to change. in my parents' era, player pianos were a big deal. while it s not my thing, there were certainly a lot of them sold. and significantly for this thread, recognize that those player pianos did not require a pianist to make music

I'm in a Rockabilly roots band. Lead guitar, Acoustic rhythm and an upright bass. We record analog to two track. There is no ****ing way you can fake that real sound. I've heard records where bands try to replicate that warm tube sound digitally, I always know, you can't fool me.
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good music is good music, whatever genre it might be, so long as the musicianship and songwriting are stellar. and while i would probably prefer analog to digital recording, digital recording of good music still produces good music

And if the **** ever hit the fan. I'd grab My guitar and start busking. Good buskers make pretty good money.
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besides being a good musician, you must also secure a good scene for busking. not certain i would want to depend on busking - the listeners' willingness to throw some money your way for playing where they happened by - for my income. but then i am not a good musician; i'd likely starve

My point is there will always be money to be made by musicians playing real instruments.
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but that does not mean that some musos would not be displaced by a skillful technician making digital music the public would pay to hear. it's happening today
 
imagep said:
I hope you are right about that.

My fear for my kid is that he will go into a profession, that isn't obsolete, but just has far fewer jobs than it has qualified professionals. The problem is that few professions are likely to be growing fast enough to replace those that are shrinking.
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I hope I'm right as well. Time will tell. But I have no interest in politicians trying to stop technology advancements.
 
Grant said:
Which will make our leisure time far more leisurely that we had hoped or anticipated.
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Only if you consider scavenging for food in the trash cans of those who are employed "leisure".
 
Grant said:
With the result that we have more leisure time to spend with our families or, as Nancy Pelosi suggested, taking up writing or photography. Or trashing Nancy on Debate Politics, come to think of it..
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I would love to get paid to attack her and Reid on the internet for a living.
 
tres borrachos said:
I hope I'm right as well. Time will tell. But I have no interest in politicians trying to stop technology advancements.
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me either. Technology is a good thing.

What I do have an interest in is having an economy where there are ample income opportunities to be earned from work, so that everyone can have one.

The alternatives are either a huge welfare state, or mass poverty, neither of which I find preferable to shorter working hours and fewer years in the labor pool.

what we are really talking about here is that we will one day soon have an economy in which there is no need for scarcity. At that point, everything that we know about economics will be moot, as economics is the study of scarcity. It would be a piss poor would if we allowed scarcity to exist, when we have the technology (but not the political will power) to eliminate it.
 
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