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Doctor being tested for Ebola in NYC [W:110]

Re: Doctor being tested for Ebola in NYC

The difference in the maps shows how the virus has spread. FWIW, the average daily figures for confirmed, probable, and suspected worldwide ebola cases for the last 3 weekly periods is below:

7-Day Period Ending:
October 5: 122 per day
October 12: 138 per day
October 19: 134 per day

They estimate that only about 1 in 4 cases are actually reported, in liberia, the drop was blamed on infections overloading the system. Not a good thing.
1200px-West_Africa_Ebola_2014_5_cum_case_by_country_lin.png

Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

What are your qualification in medicine?

Practicing inpatient internal medicine and emergency medicine PA, and Paramedic.
ID (infectious disease) patients including isolation patients are part of my daily work.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

Also, some strains of ebola have indeed spread through the air, and with the rapid rate of spread its increasingly likely it will happen again. Note that things like increased mobility from outbreak locations makes this even more likely and potentially more deadly.
From Pigs to Monkeys, Ebola Goes Airborne | HealthMap

For a so-called professional you like to scaremonger. That's not airborne, it's aerosol.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

Wrong DS.....one can even spread it when Cured.

Sperm can contain the virus for a period of three to six months even after a person has been cured of EVD. The 21-day quarantine period remains ambiguous and we need more research to conclusively establish its basis,” added Dr Srivastava......snip~

Good point. I should have been clearer, as I was referring to the doctor's case. He couldn't spread it before he became symptomatic. Once one has come down with Ebola, the virus lingers in one's semen for an extended period of time.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

For a so-called professional you like to scaremonger. That's not airborne, it's aerosol.

OMG! Nooooooo! Well, take his damned credentials away, he clearly is not as qualified as you to speak on the matter...
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

Also, some strains of ebola have indeed spread through the air, and with the rapid rate of spread its increasingly likely it will happen again. Note that things like increased mobility from outbreak locations makes this even more likely and potentially more deadly.
From Pigs to Monkeys, Ebola Goes Airborne | HealthMap

Heya USC. :2wave: Yep I have had those researchers up and the one that showed primates getting infected. By Air alone.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

Good point. I should have been clearer, as I was referring to the doctor's case. He couldn't spread it before he became symptomatic. Once one has come down with Ebola, the virus lingers in one's semen for an extended period of time.

Heya DS. :2wave: What do you think about that International Study challenging the 21 day incubation period?
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

OMG! Nooooooo! Well, take his damned credentials away, he clearly is not as qualified as you to speak on the matter...


As it happens, for once you're correct, he isn't.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

I absolutely am. Now slip into some wine and read New Yorker magazine.

The article says researchers believe the disease spread by droplets, NOT airborne.

While the study provided evidence that transmission of Ebola between species is possible, researchers still cannot say for certain how that transmission actually occurred. There are three likely candidates for the route of transmission: airborne, droplet, or fomites.
....
Author Dr. Gary Kobinger suspects that the virus is transmitted through droplets
....
What do these findings mean? First and foremost, Ebola is not suddenly an airborne disease. .... Furthermore, because human Ebola outbreaks have historically been locally contained, it is unlikely that Ebola can spread between humans via airborne transmission.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

The article says researchers believe the disease spread by droplets, NOT airborne.

I don't get the definition of "airborn" that they're talking about. Coughs and Sneezes leave droplets in the air some as small as 5 microns that could stay in the air indefinitely. If the ebola virus is contained in one of those droplets it can land on someone, be inhaled by them, go in their eye (mucus membrane) etc. Larger droplets will eventually fall onto surfaces which can then be picked up by someone touching that spot. The virus is transferred onto the other persons skin and then again into the eye or other mucus membrane. This is how the flu travels every year - the flu is a virus the same as ebola is a virus.

The Gross Science of a Cough and a Sneeze

What I do understand is that ebola is not as resilient on surfaces as say the flu can be. Ebola likes wet warm environments and at least in the US, the seasonal change in some of the country will be very hostile to Ebola should it get on a surface outside. Inside, the humidity commonly drops in the norther tier of states so dry heat will also not be very helpful to Ebola.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

I don't get the definition of "airborn" that they're talking about. Coughs and Sneezes leave droplets in the air some as small as 5 microns that could stay in the air indefinitely. If the ebola virus is contained in one of those droplets it can land on someone, be inhaled by them, go in their eye (mucus membrane) etc. Larger droplets will eventually fall onto surfaces which can then be picked up by someone touching that spot. The virus is transferred onto the other persons skin and then again into the eye or other mucus membrane. This is how the flu travels every year - the flu is a virus the same as ebola is a virus.

The CDC runs down the research here: Review of Human-to-Human Transmission of Ebola Virus | Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC

It appears the primates were 20cm from the pigs, and pigs can generate large droplets very effectively. In other conditions - such as when a plexiglass barrier prevented large droplets, but wouldn't contain the small ones you refer to, there was no transmission. And in studies of humans, in the VAST majority of cases, the person infected is known to have directly contacted human bodily fluids, and indirect transmission can't be confirmed but is in any event very rare. That's consistent with the cases here where it's only healthcare workers directly treating the dying patient who got sick, and not other bystanders, including family members living in the same home.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

The article says researchers believe the disease spread by droplets, NOT airborne.

Yes, and I have demonstrated that the disease is also capable of airborne transmission.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

Yes, and I have demonstrated that the disease is also capable of airborne transmission.

Where did you demonstrate that? And if it's airborne, why is the rate of transmission so low except for healthcare workers and others in regular, and/or direct contact with bodily fluids?
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

Where did you demonstrate that? And if it's airborne, why is the rate of transmission so low except for healthcare workers and others in regular, and/or direct contact with bodily fluids?

Im not arguing that the current strain is airborne, as far as we know. Im saying its capable of airborne transmission and there is documented evidence of that.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

Im not arguing that the current strain is airborne, as far as we know. Im saying its capable of airborne transmission and there is documented evidence of that.

So what did the CDC miss in their rundown of previous outbreaks and their assessment of the risks?
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

The CDC runs down the research here: Review of Human-to-Human Transmission of Ebola Virus | Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC

It appears the primates were 20cm from the pigs, and pigs can generate large droplets very effectively. In other conditions - such as when a plexiglass barrier prevented large droplets, but wouldn't contain the small ones you refer to, there was no transmission. And in studies of humans, in the VAST majority of cases, the person infected is known to have directly contacted human bodily fluids, and indirect transmission can't be confirmed but is in any event very rare. That's consistent with the cases here where it's only healthcare workers directly treating the dying patient who got sick, and not other bystanders, including family members living in the same home.

I generally agree - the transmission rate via a cough/sneeze is very low percentage wise - but I do not think it's impossible to transfer that way. The plausibility may be low but given just the math - it's possible. That is why the CDC approved PPE includes a N95 mask the CDC requires filters down to 2 microns.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

I generally agree - the transmission rate via a cough/sneeze is very low percentage wise - but I do not think it's impossible to transfer that way. The plausibility may be low but given just the math - it's possible. That is why the CDC approved PPE includes a N95 mask the CDC requires filters down to 2 microns.

We're on the same page.

The only thing I'm objecting to is the scare mongering that Ebola is an airborne disease like the flue or other highly contagious viruses. It's just not, and there is no reason to treat it as such. For a medical provider spending extended time in the same room as a person sick and dying, throwing up, coughing, etc. then there is no reason to take any risks of it spreading by droplets large or small. But the risk to the population of NYC while the doctor was bowling or walking on the streets with no fever and no symptoms was, for all practical purposes, zero.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

So what did the CDC miss in their rundown of previous outbreaks and their assessment of the risks?

My biggest issue is with its inconsistent policies (regarding adequate protection), its slow implementation (some aren't due to kick in until monday when we have exposure in nyc) and its refusal to recommend closing of the border.
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

We're on the same page.

The only thing I'm objecting to is the scare mongering that Ebola is an airborne disease like the flue or other highly contagious viruses. It's just not, and there is no reason to treat it as such. For a medical provider spending extended time in the same room as a person sick and dying, throwing up, coughing, etc. then there is no reason to take any risks of it spreading by droplets large or small. But the risk to the population of NYC while the doctor was bowling or walking on the streets with no fever and no symptoms was, for all practical purposes, zero.

I did a bit of reading on virus mutations ... there are chances each time a virus is passed on to genetically change. The changes however do not always make the virus more deadly especially in transmission method. In labs scientists have forced mutations of virus transmission methods but found that even strains of flu which were deadly - when changed to an easier transmission method became less virluent and less deadly. Of course one cannot predict which mutation will take place but we at least know that if Ebola did make a change and could be spread like the flu there is a chance it will become less deadly - of course there is an equal chance it may become more deadly as well.


This is a decent page defining the Ebola virus itself:
http://viralzone.expasy.org/all_by_species/207.html
 
Re: Doctor rushed to Bellevue Hospital with Ebola symptoms went bowling a day earlier

My biggest issue is with its inconsistent policies (regarding adequate protection), its slow implementation (some aren't due to kick in until monday when we have exposure in nyc) and its refusal to recommend closing of the border.

I think it's now generally accepted the CDC and hospitals were caught flat footed on this.
 
Re: Doctor being tested for Ebola in NYC

No it isn't. Obama and his CDC drone did nothing to keep Ebola out of the US.

If that's true, and I don't believe it is, then it appears doing nothing has been a pretty good plan so far.

Factbox: Ebola cases in the United States | Reuters

So far we've had one non-citizen travel to the U.S. He died, and the two nurses he infected two nurses who have recovered.

U.S. based camera man was treated and recovered, infected no one.

An unidentified American was treated and released from Emory, infected no one.

Three Christian missionaries contracted Ebola overseas, transferred here for treatment, recovered, infected no one.

The doctor in NYC, now being treated, no known persons infected.

There is no outbreak in the U.S. One person with Ebola, the African, has died. There are two people infected - the nurses in Dallas - who have recovered. I'm not sure how the results could be better with a travel ban.
 
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