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AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

Μολὼν λαβέ;1063931423 said:
Apparently they don't see the data as you do.

Most Dems running on their own record would have to explain their connection to Obama. That doesn't seem to be a wining ticket.
Way to miss the point, as usual.
It is almost like the Democrats let Fox News run their campaigns for them. Conservative media claims 2014 is a referendum on Obama, and the Democratic candidates run right out there and campaign as if it actually is.
Exactly. And then, if it is going to be about Obama, they completely refuse to tout the good things which have happened under Obama.

Obviously I live in a fairly small corner of the country (as do we all) but I live in an area which allows me to get television advertisements for election races in three different states. I've yet to see a single Democrat run on things which have gone well in the last few years.

Now what many people in this thread seem not to realize is I honestly don't care who wins what election, but it has been terrible campaigning strategy.
Really? Isn't this one of the most uttered justifications to ObamaCare, that it worked, well sort of, in Massachusetts?
Yes, just as it is one of the most offered oppositions to Obamacare and they both are stupid.

Bottom line here is that are aren't enough Americans working full time and that there are far too many Americans that would gladly have a full time well paying job, but can only find part time work, and that this is a direct result of the failed liberal policies of Obama and his administration.
I'm sorry...when I hear people blame "liberals" or "conservative" for all of the ills in the world, I've learned they simply are not worth my time to care about. Sometimes I respond, but this time I've decided you're not worth my time.

Come back with something better than blind partisanship and we'll talk.
 
That's not true. Most are retired, disabled, students, stay home spouses etc. Over 92% of those not looking for work don't want a job. Of those who say they do, most stopped looking for personal reasons, not "giving up."

You know it is such crap reading page after page of you demanding that people that argue against your points constantly accompany their claims with backing reference material, yet you get to throw BS like this with nothing...pfft...The next time you ask for proof of anything remember this post.
 
You know it is such crap reading page after page of you demanding that people that argue against your points constantly accompany their claims with backing reference material, yet you get to throw BS like this with nothing...pfft...The next time you ask for proof of anything remember this post.
Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

Almost everything pinqy ever says, especially in a thread like this, comes from the BLS. The difference from someone like him and others who are asked to support their position is that the others are saying inaccurate things. They then use these inaccurate statements to support their inaccurate position.
 
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You know it is such crap reading page after page of you demanding that people that argue against your points constantly accompany their claims with backing reference material, yet you get to throw BS like this with nothing...pfft...The next time you ask for proof of anything remember this post.

The difference is that I have a proven history of knowing what I'm talking about and not making **** up. So when I give figures, they will be correct, and I always have actual sources.
A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex
 
The difference is that I have a proven history of knowing what I'm talking about and not making **** up. So when I give figures, they will be correct, and I always have actual sources.
A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

Yes, Sly posted the same table...Problem with Statistics is that they can be manipulated, and in this climate of political appointees, and corruption of the system, I hold very little confidence in them....BTW, since you are holding out some sort of expertise on the subject, I forget, do you work for the BLS or something?
 
Oh, you mean people who make false statements because they've done no research like:
How was that a false statement? Becaise you say so? I don't think so.
 
Then back it up and show your source that it's true. I already posted proof that it's not.

My source? Are you saying that media news outlets don't use the U-3 in favor over the U-6 numbers? Really? Don't be silly now....

I will give you a pretty good article on it...

"First, when the latest jobs report was released on Friday morning. It was generally heralded as a good report — for good reason. According to initial Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates, the U.S. gained nearly 200,000 jobs in June, and another 70,000 jobs appear to have been discovered in April and May. As a result, the nation’s official unemployment rate held steady at 7.6%; not great, but miles better than the 10% unemployment rate that the U.S. flirted with between 2009 and 2010.

But the “official” unemployment rate doesn’t count men and women like G. — discouraged workers who have settled for part-time jobs or have given up looking altogether. Tracking those individuals, under what’s called the “U-6″ rate, gives a very different measure of the nation’s unemployment rate: 14.3%.

And unlike other jobs figures, the U-6 rate actually got worse in June — it went up by 0.5 percentage points.

There’s a strong argument that given the Great Recession’s damage to the economy, and because millions of Americans like G. have simply given up their job search, the U-6 rate is a more accurate reflection of national employment. Like the “official” rate, the U-6 essentially doubled between 2007 and 2009; unlike the official rate, it’s not coming down as fast.

But most news organizations don’t cover the U-6 rate, and many economists don’t focus on it. (Donald Marron of the Brookings Institution was among the few economists who regularly monitored it through the recession and the recovery; when we spoke last year, Marron told me that the U-6 offered a broader look at where the nation stood.)


June 2013 unemployment trends. Source: Ritchie King, qz.com.

One reason that the U-6 rate remains so high is because it’s so hard to get back into the workforce once you’ve been out for months — whether perception or reality, many employers see these would-be workers as damaged goods."

Why The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Higher Than You Think - Forbes
 
My source? Are you saying that media news outlets don't use the U-3 in favor over the U-6 numbers?
No, I am not saying that. I am saying that the statement "The U-3 is what is commonly used to report figures to the people, and that uses data of monthly benefit claims." is false because the bolded part is untrue. But nice try at diversion.

You see if one part of a statement is false, then the statement as a whole is false (unless there's an "or".)

So, what is your source that the U-3 uses data of monthly benefit claims? Oh, you don't have one.
 
No, you didn't.
Yes, I did. I showed how ptif's comment was false and I showed how pinqy got his statement from the BLS.
Problem with Statistics is that they can be manipulated
:lamo

I always love how when people are proven wrong they just claim the facts are lies. It's always good stuff.
 
No, I am not saying that. I am saying that the statement "The U-3 is what is commonly used to report figures to the people, and that uses data of monthly benefit claims." is false because the bolded part is untrue. But nice try at diversion.

You see if one part of a statement is false, then the statement as a whole is false (unless there's an "or".)

So, what is your source that the U-3 uses data of monthly benefit claims? Oh, you don't have one.

Oh for Christ sake....So sorry, I didn't know that semantics was what you were going to hang your hat on Mr. Expert....:roll:
 
Yes, I did. I showed how ptif's comment was false and I showed how pinqy got his statement from the BLS.
:lamo

I always love how when people are proven wrong they just claim the facts are lies. It's always good stuff.

And I love how progressives love to exploit any situation to be smug, and arrogant....Also how progressives won't admit that they are progressives....:lol:
 
And I love how progressives love to exploit any situation to be smug, and arrogant
I'm sorry, is that you admitting I had already proven it? It's about time you finally admit you were wrong.

....Also how progressives won't admit that they are progressives....:lol:
I think it's funny you think caring about facts and truth makes one a progressive. There's nothing "progressive" at all about simply discussing numbers. All I've done is show you one poster was making factually inaccurate statements and another was correcting him. The fact you think being correct and using facts makes someone a progressive is quite telling.

What I find sad is how incapable some people are at thinking of anything more complex than "us vs. them". You seem to think that, because I am supporting someone who is posting facts you don't like, I must be in opposition to you and, thus, have to be one of the "evil" progressives. The idea that someone could just simply care about truth, and the fact you're on the wrong side of it, never occurs to you.
 
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Oh for Christ sake....So sorry, I didn't know that semantics was what you were going to hang your hat on Mr. Expert....:roll:
Semantics? No, it's just a false statement. No use of semantics is needed for that. Of course you never acknowledged you were wrong in that statement
 
I'm sorry, is that you admitting I had already proven it? It's about time you finally admit you were wrong.

I may have been wrong, or at least un inclusive in my statement about U-3, when it should have included survey numbers as well, but in general, the numbers reported are manipulated, and have been for a long time through republican, and democrat administrations. I stand by that.

I think it's funny you think caring about facts and truth makes one a progressive. There's nothing "progressive" at all about simply discussing numbers. All I've done is show you one poster was making factually inaccurate statements and another was correcting him. The fact you think being correct and using facts makes someone a progressive is quite telling.

What I find sad is how incapable some people are at thinking of anything more complex than "us vs. them". You seem to think that, because I am supporting someone who is posting facts you don't like, I must be in opposition to you and, thus, have to be one of the "evil" progressives. The idea that someone could just simply care about truth, and the fact you're on the wrong side of it, never occurs to you.

See, there's that arrogance I spoke of...That's not what I said and you know it, but just couldn't resist the inclination to blather on in your usual insulting arrogant spew...What never occurs to you is how you come off to people...I can tell you, based on what I've read of your postings, you're probably not someone I'd enjoy being around...Now, does that make you a progressive? No....Being a progressive makes you a progressive, and you display all of the earmarks of the usual....Nothing special.

But, continue with the facade if it makes you happy....:shrug:
 
Semantics? No, it's just a false statement. No use of semantics is needed for that. Of course you never acknowledged you were wrong in that statement

Ok, like I just said to Sly...I should have included survey numbers in my statement...But that doesn't make the jist of what I was saying wrong...Hell, are you really saying that UE is really less than 7% right now?
 
Ok, like I just said to Sly...I should have included survey numbers in my statement...But that doesn't make the jist of what I was saying wrong..
Yes it does. There's no "gist" to a flat claim that the UE rate is based on benefit claims. It's just wrong...they play no part at all.

Hell, are you really saying that UE is really less than 7% right now?

Well of course it is....unless you completely change the standard definitions.
 
I may have been wrong, or at least un inclusive in my statement about U-3, when it should have included survey numbers as well, but in general, the numbers reported are manipulated, and have been for a long time through republican, and democrat administrations. I stand by that.
Where is your evidence that they are manipulated? See, this is my complaint about people talking without being able to back it up. You have a belief the numbers are manipulated, but you have no evidence or actual reason for that belief. You don't even understand how the numbers are collected and compiled, so how could you possibly claim they are manipulated?


And you still can't admit you were wrong. you "may have been wrong?" No, there's no "may" about it. And "un-inclusive?" No, unemployment insurance claims play zero role in the national unemployment numbers. They're not used at all in any way.

So why did you say they were? Why would you make a false claim like that?
 
I may have been wrong
You were.
or at least un inclusive in my statement about U-3
Not what you and I were discussing. We were discussing about how ptif made a false statement to support a position which was inaccurate. When you accused pinqy of not sourcing his claims, I pointed out the difference between pinqy and many others is how pinqy almost always uses BLS numbers and when he asks for the sources of others, it is because they are making inaccurate claims.

I proved, as an example, ptif made a false statement. You claimed I didn't, which is what you were wrong about.

but in general, the numbers reported are manipulated
Do you have any real evidence to support your position, aside from "because I want to think so"?

See, there's that arrogance I spoke of
We've already covered this. When people make absurd statements, they don't deserve any better than I give them. Perhaps it is arrogance, I don't dispute that, but it's more just a lack of caring when dealing with people who are too damn stubborn to see why what they are saying is wrong.

In other words, YOUR arrogance (meaning another's arrogance, not you specifically) triggers mine. The fact you admitted you were wrong when presented with the truth (though not about what you and I were discussing) immediately improves my desire to converse in a meaningful manner.

That's not what I said and you know it
No, it's not what you said, but it is what you said. You called me a progressive for no reason better than because I refuse to go along with your (or another conservative's) provably false statement regarding the percentage of discouraged workers. Because I insisted on actual facts, rather than the made up crap which makes you feel better in your political lean, you called me a progressive.

So, like I said, it is what you said.

What never occurs to you is how you come off to people
Oh no, I know exactly how I come off. I already told you in that ridiculous thread you created about abortion to age 5 that I know I rub people the wrong way.

What has not appeared to have occurred to you is that I honestly do not give a rat's ass if someone who insists on being wrong, even when being presented with the truth, thinks poorly of me. I have many cares and concerns in this world, but whether or not someone who needs to hide their head in the sand in order to continue believing what they want to believe likes me is simply not one of them.

I can tell you, based on what I've read of your postings, you're probably not someone I'd enjoy being around
Yes, probably not. You don't seem to like when people point out how often you are wrong and/or being silly.

Being a progressive makes you a progressive, and you display all of the earmarks of the usual
I suspect you cannot point to a single thing I actually believe which is "progressive".

No, really, go ahead. Point to something I believe which makes me "progressive".

But, continue with the facade if it makes you happy....:shrug:
There's no facade. When I claim to care only about results, and not what method is used to achieve them, it's the truth. When I say I don't care which party makes America better, only that it improves, it's the truth.

You see, I'm not like you. You want the country to fail when a "liberal/progressive/Democrat" is President, because you seem to be far more concerned about your team winning (or the other team losing) than you do about the good of the country. I believe in equality under the law. I believe in local control if possible, state powers where appropriate and federal powers where necessary. There's nothing progressive about that at all.

At the end of the day, your only standard for me being a "progressive" is that I'm not nearly as far to the right as you are.
 
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Yes it does. There's no "gist" to a flat claim that the UE rate is based on benefit claims. It's just wrong...they play no part at all.

Then tell me why I hear reports every month about benefit claims numbers up or down, and how that impacts the economy if "they play no part at all"....

Well of course it is....unless you completely change the standard definitions.

Sept. report was 5.9%....Everyone agrees that 5% is close to "full employment"... And you're saying that we are that close to full employment? Sorry dude, I call BS on that one...
 
Then tell me why I hear reports every month about benefit claims numbers up or down, and how that impacts the economy if "they play no part at all"....
Benefit claims reports come out every week, actually. But why would the fact that there are reports about benefits claims mean they're used to calculate the official unemployment numbers???

Separate reports, by separate agencies....The Employment Situation is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the weekly UI benefits claims are from the Employment and Training Administration of the Dept of Labor. (yes BLS falls under Labor too, but only administratively...operations are completely separate.)


Sept. report was 5.9%....Everyone agrees that 5% is close to "full employment"... And you're saying that we are that close to full employment? Sorry dude, I call BS on that one...
5.9% is a long way off from 5%. There are also a lot of other factors that are important to look at too...such as discouraged and part time for economic reasons and real wages and average hours.
 
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