High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate.....

MMC said:

It appears they are looking at this virus spreading.....even with High risk cases. In the meantime here in the US Duncan is in critical condition and that's with treatment. What say ye?


Reuters - Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date.

Those numbers are based on air traffic remaining at full capacity. Assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France's risk is still 25 percent, and Britain's is 15 percent. France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - include French speakers and have busy travel routes back, while Britain's Heathrow airport is one of the world's biggest travel hubs. Belgium has a 40 percent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 percent each, according to the study first published in the journal PLoS Current Outbreaks and now being regularly updated at ebola - MoBS

The latest calculations used data from October 1.....snip~

High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate

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Mr.Nick said:

Ebola takes anything from 10-20 days to incubate - no imagine how much contact these infected people had in the time Ebola victims had contact with during the time they weren't feeling sick??????

This is going to be terrible in the US.

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polgara said:

Greetings, MMC. :2wave:

How can Ebola be fought with the airlines flying all around the world on a daily basis? Many businessmen do not usually have the luxury of planning their business travel a month in advance, even in the US. Vacation travel with their families, yes...business no. Will we be required to have a document from a doctor stating that we are Ebola free, along with our passport, if we have to travel worldwide in the near future? And how will we quarantine millions of people for three weeks to be sure they don't have Ebola, since it takes that long for symptoms to appear? :wow:

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MMC said:

Heya Nick. :2wave: Plus the Doctor they gave the experimental drug to is back in the hospital and they have him under observation. They are saying he now has an upper respiratory infection and some Pink eye.

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MMC said:

Heya Lady P

.....Well they account for countries restricting flights. Still 19 days isn't a lot of time.....is it?

Theres always teleconferencing so I am told. :mrgreen:

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polgara said:

i was on a teleconference call not too long ago, and the meeting was successful, and business was handled. The only problem I have always had with them is that no one can see anyone else, nor is there any way to know who else is sitting in that you didn't know about. The man who scheduled the call had the option of who to invite to participate on the call, and we all had to announce one by one that we were present for the call. Face to face is better, IMO, but certainly more costly, and now with Ebola, potentially more hazardess to your health. :wow:

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EnigmaO01 said:

I actually prefer a teleconference over a videoconference. I find video conferences very distracting and there always seem to be minor glitches. And I can't stand to look at myself. LOL

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Mr.Nick said:

The only Ebola "cure" (if you want to call it that) was by taking the blood of those who have natural "immunities" and giving blood transfusions to the sick in hopes the immunities bond with the sicks's immune system. It has worked with great deal of success, however the problem with this is that the majority who are "immune" carry virus that would kill those who don't share the antibodies with the individuals who gave blood.

If we don't quarantine this Ebola outbreak it would be a pandemic - much like Mad Cows disease or Bird Flu just 10x worse given the incubation period of nearly a moth.

Think of this - how many people do you act within a month on a personal to personal level - 100 or eve 1000's and that was before they even knew they were ill.

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vCJD Statistics (Humans): (source: CDC)
1996-2014 - 228 vCJD cases have been reported in 12 countries:
United Kingdom - 176
France - 27
Ireland - 4
United States - 4
Spain - 5
The Netherlands - 3
Portugal - 2
Canada - 2
Italy - 2
Japan - 1
Saudi Arabia - 1
Taiwan - 1

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polgara said:

About half the people on the call were located at different places across the country, and weren't even near where the call originated from. That's a good thing about teleconferencing - it keeps travel costs down. Plus, in my case, no one knew I was still in my robe, drinking my morning coffee! Don't tell anyone, okay? :mrgreen:

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Hatuey said:

Mad Cow Disease Fast Facts - CNN.com



So we're looking at... 40 cases... 50 tops? We had no deaths for H5N1....

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MMC said:

It appears they are looking at this virus spreading.....even with High risk cases. In the meantime here in the US Duncan is in critical condition and that's with treatment. What say ye?

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Mr.Nick said:

Ebola takes anything from 10-20 days to incubate - no imagine how much contact these infected people had in the time Ebola victims had contact with during the time they weren't feeling sick??????

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Mr.Nick said:

How can Ebola be fought with the airlines flying all around the world on a daily basis?

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Mr.Nick said:

Will we be required to have a document from a doctor stating that we are Ebola free, along with our passport, if we have to travel worldwide in the near future?

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Mr.Nick said:

And how will we quarantine millions of people for three weeks to be sure they don't have Ebola, since it takes that long for symptoms to appear?

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HonestJoe said:

What is there to say? There is a known risk of individuals infected with Ebola travelling to other countries. That's hardly news and it's something the relevant authorities were already aware of any are taking measures to account for. It's much more unlikely that there will be any kind of widespread infection in western nations given the nature of the infection and the resources we have to safely manage any cases.

Ebola isn't infectious when a patient isn't showing any symptoms. It's one of the few saving graces.

Widespread long distance travel always presents an issue with the spread of infectious diseases but I'm not convinced it's as much a concern as it would be for others, given where the outbreak currently is and the nature of the infection.

Unlikely. Anyone with symptoms should be (and I expect would be) refused by the airlines. There is documentation regarding flying internationally though that generally involves self-declaration (the first US case allegedly involved false information on such documents).

If we ever get to the point of needing to quarantine millions of people, how would be the least of our worries. There is no serious prospect of it getting to that point though.

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MMC said:

Well it is news.....that's why the CDC already admitted there were gaps. Mistakes happen and all that.

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MMC said:

Heya Lady P

.....Well they account for countries restricting flights. Still 19 days isn't a lot of time.....is it?

Theres always teleconferencing so I am told. :mrgreen:

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HonestJoe said:

That an epidemic of an infectious disease has broken out in another part of the world means that there is a risk of infected individuals travelling to other countries is not news. Beyond putting some quite high-concept numbers around the risk, this report doesn't tell us anything new. It certainly doesn't tell the relevant experts and officials anything new as they would have long been considering this risk and how best to respond to it.

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MMC said:

Well that part is and isn't.....it was finding the Gaps. Now we know of a couple. Which most knew would come from Human error anyways.

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HonestJoe said:

I'm still not clear what here is new or unexpected. This article isn't about specific gaps or flaws, just an analysis of the situation as it is known and understood. I don't want to do you a disservice but you do seem to be trying to spin it up in to something more significant and, dare I say, scary.

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MMC said:

Now according to these Scientists they are calculating in 18 days. High Risk Ebola will be entering France and the UK. That's why they worded it that way.

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MMC said:

If they didn't think it wasn't important enough to put it out with the Media then it wouldn't be.

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MMC said:

Oh and I am not spinning any of it.....its already whats been up in the news.

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HonestJoe said:

The scientists didn't word that, the Yahoo headline writer did. The wording of the actual report in question is perfectly bland and boring.

Incidentally, you do realise that it's saying "There is a high risk that Ebola could enter these countries" and not that something called 'High Risk Ebola' will be entering those countries?

Their stated interest wasn't to get in the media but to inform the relevant authorities already managing these risks. The media just picked up on it because it was published in the public domain and any "new" information about Ebola, especially with scary sounding predictions, sells copy at the moment.

As I said, I didn't want to do you a disservice but even though that isn't your intention, it is how your posts could come across. It's the kind of thing that requires care and consideration.

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MMC said:

If in 18 days it could.....what do you think their model says after 60 days? That it still could?

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MMC said:

It appears they are looking at this virus spreading.....even with High risk cases. In the meantime here in the US Duncan is in critical condition and that's with treatment. What say ye?


Reuters - Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date.

Those numbers are based on air traffic remaining at full capacity. Assuming an 80 percent reduction in travel to reflect that many airlines are halting flights to affected regions, France's risk is still 25 percent, and Britain's is 15 percent. France is among countries most likely to be hit next because the worst affected countries - Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia - include French speakers and have busy travel routes back, while Britain's Heathrow airport is one of the world's biggest travel hubs. Belgium has a 40 percent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 percent each, according to the study first published in the journal PLoS Current Outbreaks and now being regularly updated at ebola - MoBS

The latest calculations used data from October 1.....snip~

High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate

Click to expand...