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U.S. economy bounces back sharply

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Btw, the DOW has dropped over 300 points today.

For the record, on December 31, 2013 the DOW closed at 16,576.73.

Right now it is 16,569.33.

So it's down for the year, so far.

I am sure when the humans stop trading the market it will go right back up.
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Greetings, Polgara. I wish I could get the government to run all of my competitors' businesses. That would certainly give me a leg up. It's hard to imagine where the socialist tendencies arised in today's youth. It certainly wasn't from the history of american business.

I read a most interesting article recently that discussed this very topic. It started out by explaining what the intent of our Founders was in writing the Declaration of Independence, particularly the line "all men are created equal" and "they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights." In other words, there is a higher law than any human law, and government must obey it. Our Founders were very well educated men for the most part, at a time when the general public was satisfied with a few years of elementary education, BTW.

That all began to change in the mid-1800s, with the coming of the socialist revolution, which swept the world. Not necessarily an explicit endorsement of "socialism" itself, just endorsement of things socialist. By the early 1900s, socialism was well entrenched in the world's intellectual leadership, and one of its achievements was to create socialized school systems, which taught that the solution to any problem is more government. Higher Law was laughed at - they said our rights to our lives, freedom and property come from the government, and can be altered or abolished as politicians see fit. Very clever, indeed!

Fast forward to today, where this belief is almost universal. Schools and colleges have been teaching an undying faith in government for a very long time, and little or nothing about the system of liberty envisioned by our Founders, and our leaders in Government are the students who were taught this. After the second or third generation of future teachers has been raised this way, there are few left in the school system who know otherwise. Small wonder that some would like vey much to abolish our Constitution - it's contrary to what they were taught in school! :thumbdown:
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

I pulled my money out of the market and put it into govt. bonds. The market seems real nervous and bi-polar. More nervous than usual.
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

I read a most interesting article recently that discussed this very topic. It started out by explaining what the intent of our Founders was in writing the Declaration of Independence, particularly the line "all men are created equal" and "they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights." In other words, there is a higher law than any human law, and government must obey it. Our Founders were very well educated men for the most part, at a time when the general public was satisfied with a few years of elementary education, BTW.

That all began to change in the mid-1800s, with the coming of the socialist revolution, which swept the world. Not necessarily an explicit endorsement of "socialism" itself, just endorsement of things socialist. By the early 1900s, socialism was well entrenched in the world's intellectual leadership, and one of its achievements was to create socialized school systems, which taught that the solution to any problem is more government. Higher Law was laughed at - they said our rights to our lives, freedom and property come from the government, and can be altered or abolished as politicians see fit. Very clever, indeed!

Fast forward to today, where this belief is almost universal. Schools and colleges have been teaching an undying faith in government for a very long time, and little or nothing about the system of liberty envisioned by our Founders, and our leaders in Government are the students who were taught this. After the second or third generation of future teachers has been raised this way, there are few left in the school system who know otherwise. Small wonder that some would like vey much to abolish our Constitution - it's contrary to what they were taught in school! :thumbdown:

To say nothing of the fact that the constitution was constituted in order to limit the power of government and the left wants laissez faire government. I went to college in the 1960's. I can't recall ever hearing a political comment from a professor the whole time - even in the required freshman civics class. Perhaps I just stumbled on to a rare non partisan school but I can't recall any friends at other schools encountering politics in the classroom either. We seemed to get the subjects taught on subject without any political coloration.

I'm not sure when that changed but I suspect it was in the late 80's or early 90's when we started seeing society break into two warring political camps. It isn't hard to understand how college faculties leaned left. They live in a theoretical world fairly immune from reality and consequences. The socialist teachings are appealing. Impractical but appealing. As you said, it destroys motivation and motivation is what drives success and progress.

I'm old enough now that whatever society does isn't going to impact me personally. I'm not likely to live long enough to see any real change. So I view myself as more of a bystander - an observer - but I still care about the country and it saddens me to see it slowly taken apart. Ah well. I think I'll go to bed. Good night.
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

To say nothing of the fact that the constitution was constituted in order to limit the power of government and the left wants laissez faire government. I went to college in the 1960's. I can't recall ever hearing a political comment from a professor the whole time - even in the required freshman civics class. Perhaps I just stumbled on to a rare non partisan school but I can't recall any friends at other schools encountering politics in the classroom either. We seemed to get the subjects taught on subject without any political coloration.

I'm not sure when that changed but I suspect it was in the late 80's or early 90's when we started seeing society break into two warring political camps. It isn't hard to understand how college faculties leaned left. They live in a theoretical world fairly immune from reality and consequences. The socialist teachings are appealing. Impractical but appealing. As you said, it destroys motivation and motivation is what drives success and progress.

I'm old enough now that whatever society does isn't going to impact me personally. I'm not likely to live long enough to see any real change. So I view myself as more of a bystander - an observer - but I still care about the country and it saddens me to see it slowly taken apart. Ah well. I think I'll go to bed. Good night.[/QUOT

Be well. :thumbs:
 
Means nothing...wait for the final revision (then few will pay attention).

They dropped Q1 from +0.1% initially all the way down to -2.1% in th final revision...clearly (IMO) they are either incompetent and/or being influenced.

What really should matter is how liberals get excited over the new normal believing that coming off a bad recession that 4% economic growth, or an average of 1.9% for the fiscal year, is good and to be celebrated. Liberals seem to have very low expectations so the new normal of low economic growth, high unemployment/under employment/discouraged workers, 7 trillion added to the debt in 6 years. Rather scary that social issues trump economic issues in the liberal world and they continue to support the incompetent in the WH.
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

I read a most interesting article recently that discussed this very topic. It started out by explaining what the intent of our Founders was in writing the Declaration of Independence, particularly the line "all men are created equal" and "they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights." In other words, there is a higher law than any human law.....
Not quite. They believed that humans have inherent rights, and that government ought to be restrained -- radical ideas in their time.

However, we should note that they also did not have anything resembling modern corporations as we do now. It would not have occurred to them that government would need to step in to restrain potential abuses by monopolies and multinational corporations. International finance, credit cards, mortgages, derivatives, trading financial products... all unimaginable to them.


That all began to change in the mid-1800s, with the coming of the socialist revolution, which swept the world....
"Socialism" does not mesh with the idea of limited government, but it is NOT incompatible with the idea of inherent rights. In fact, it's fairly easy to construct a socialist ideology based on protecting individuals, and treating them equally under the law.


By the early 1900s, socialism was well entrenched in the world's intellectual leadership, and one of its achievements was to create socialized school systems, which taught that the solution to any problem is more government.
Just to be clear, are you really implying that public schools are a bad thing, because they are "socialist?"


Higher Law was laughed at - they said our rights to our lives, freedom and property come from the government, and can be altered or abolished as politicians see fit. Very clever, indeed!
Not really. The real socialists (e.g. Marx, Engels) made no such claims. They were much more concerned with abuses by capitalist entities, and routinely viewed existing governments as servicing capitalist interests. (Marx didn't even articulate a post-revolutionary government, he only focused on the revolution itself.) Post-Marxian leaders like Lenin, Stalin or Mao viewed government as the best way to manage and distribute the means of production.

There is also the pesky problem that, well, rights probably aren't actually inherent. No one hands you a guarantee of rights when you're born. There is no uniform agreement on what rights are truly inherent, and no way to prove whether a particular right is or is not inherent. E.g. if the Christian deity bestowed freedom of religion and freedom of expression upon humanity, then why was that unrecognized for millennia prior to the ratification of the US Constitution? Why did this deity allow flagrant abuses of human rights for centuries, including deprivation of due process, and the routine use of torture to extract confessions? How does the concept of a warrant to search a home fit into an inherent right? Why were slaves excluded from all rights, until the US fought itself brutally over the matter? When did this deity deign to tell us that a "right to privacy" existed, and by what means? There certainly aren't any passages in the Jewish and Christian canons which outline an explicit list of inherent rights, so how do we know what's on the list? And of course, why would someone who is not Christian, or not religious, be bound by Christian concepts about rights? (We should note, by the way, that many secularists adhere to the concept of rights just as strongly as any religious individual.)

I.e. claiming that rights are "inherent" doesn't prove that is actually the case. Even invoking a religious basis doesn't actually justify any degree of certainty.


Small wonder that some would like vey much to abolish our Constitution - it's contrary to what they were taught in school! :thumbdown:
Actually, almost no one in the US wants to abolish the Constitution. Few want to alter it. Almost every political player in every political position in the US invokes a Constitutional basis for their actions. Thanks for the straw man, though. ;)
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

The national economy's numbers are meaningless in the face of excessive off-the-radar unemployment and widespread financial under-employment.

For scores of millions still suffering in the wake of the Great Recession, their personal economic numbers remain very dismal.

For our nation's economic numbers to be meaningful they have to be compared to our nation's citizens' economic numbers.

The great disparity in this comparison illustrates that citizen well-being is not necessarily tied to corporate well-being in an age of rampant out-sourcing and wage-slave foreign labor exploitation.
 
What really should matter is how liberals get excited over the new normal believing that coming off a bad recession that 4% economic growth, or an average of 1.9% for the fiscal year, is good and to be celebrated. Liberals seem to have very low expectations so the new normal of low economic growth, high unemployment/under employment/discouraged workers, 7 trillion added to the debt in 6 years. Rather scary that social issues trump economic issues in the liberal world and they continue to support the incompetent in the WH.

What scares me is the hard core Keynesians (like Yellen and Krugman) are 'all in' when it comes to spending.
Many people question their own logic when the results disappoint enough...not with the hard core Keynesians, they believe that the problem is not enough money is being thrown at the problem and not fast enough.
Just like in Japan, I assume the Fed will probably just keep spending no matter how bad the economy gets. And if QE doesn't work, they will invent new ways to stimulate...probably even buying stocks directly (the Japanese central bank has already tried that one).

The Keynesians who run the western/Japanese economies have gone 'all in'...and they probably won't stop until the economy gets healthy and self-sufficient or it collapses near-completely.

And the last time they tried anything like this (in the 1930's), the economy never became self sufficient and when they took the government teat away in 1937 it collapsed in a heap (only WW2 saved their bacon).

My guess is history will DEFINITELY repeat itself...this is going to get VERY ugly before the economy gets healthy and self-sufficient again.
 
I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much?

842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)

Although the GDP of the first quarter of 2014 is the sharpest decline in five years, another index of economy goes in contrary way. The Dow Jones index reaches its history high(over 17,000) on July 3, 2014. Since April – despite the poor economy that GDP suffered a big loss – the stock market remains in high level. Obviously, the ruler of this country is planning a rising stock market trap. They don’t want the bad news of fallen GDP to interrupt their plan. Then we saw this dramatic GDP cheating opera. They deliberately put the original report of first quarter GDP having 0.1% increase. That’s the minimum unit to separate two thorough different worlds – positive and negative. With this small 0.1%, people thought the US economy was still increasing, though at the cliff of recession. With other cheating method and propaganda, they keep Americans in a dream that US economy is going to prosperous. Here is how Dow Jones index kept rushing to its recent peak – watch the timing (from April to June) while actually economy is in recession.


Dow Highest Closing Record

The Dow historical closing high is 16,947.08 set June 20, 2014. Normally, investors say "sell in May," but that's why you can't time the market. The Dow is on a winning streak, after falling to 15,372.80 on February 3. Here's this year's streak:

•16,945.92 on June 10
•16,943.10 on June 9
•16,924.28 on June 6
•16,836.11 on June 5
•16,743.63 on June 2
• 16,717.17 on May 30
•16,715.44 on May 13
•16,695.47 on May 12
•16,583.34 on May 9
•16,580.84 on April 30

Be noticed that April 30 was the day they gave original report of the first quarter GDP. Could you see from this chart how they build this upward ladder to lure innocent people in to join this “rush to pick up the peak fruit” movement?
 
I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much?

842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)

Although the GDP of the first quarter of 2014 is the sharpest decline in five years, another index of economy goes in contrary way. The Dow Jones index reaches its history high(over 17,000) on July 3, 2014. Since April – despite the poor economy that GDP suffered a big loss – the stock market remains in high level. Obviously, the ruler of this country is planning a rising stock market trap. They don’t want the bad news of fallen GDP to interrupt their plan. Then we saw this dramatic GDP cheating opera. They deliberately put the original report of first quarter GDP having 0.1% increase. That’s the minimum unit to separate two thorough different worlds – positive and negative. With this small 0.1%, people thought the US economy was still increasing, though at the cliff of recession. With other cheating method and propaganda, they keep Americans in a dream that US economy is going to prosperous. Here is how Dow Jones index kept rushing to its recent peak – watch the timing (from April to June) while actually economy is in recession.




Be noticed that April 30 was the day they gave original report of the first quarter GDP. Could you see from this chart how they build this upward ladder to lure innocent people in to join this “rush to pick up the peak fruit” movement?


You're not alone in your suspicion.

The Obama administration and their minions are more concerned with the manumanufacturing of a facade of recovery.

If it were up to them they would subvert every bit of negative economic data.

Essentially they're telling the poor and the struggling American middle class to " shut up, you're making us look bad "
 
I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much?
As already discussed, GDP is not "the economy" (despite the slightly misleading thread title). It is only one measure of economic conditions.

And yes, it does make sense that GDP changed dramatically between Q1 and Q2, because Q1 GDP went down due to short-term effects such as bad weather, and a drop in exports. And that most people aren't in a position to "feel" the difference between one good quarter, and one bad quarter.


842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)
The stock market isn't much of an economic indicator. It's more an indicator in the confidence that people and institutions have in future stock prices.

For example, the economic news this week was pretty much right down the middle, notably unemployment hasn't changed much. And yet, the US stock market had a broad-based across-the-board downturn. Why? Not because the economy was tanking, but because investors were terrified that the Federal Reserve was going to hike interest rates.

Further, the idea that the BEA is manipulating figures to keep the stock market higher is blatantly absurd, and basically a conspiracy theory. Why would the BEA ever admit any bad news, if that was the case? Why would it have published the Q1 GDP losses? Ridiculous.
 
As already discussed, GDP is not "the economy" (despite the slightly misleading thread title). It is only one measure of economic conditions.

And yes, it does make sense that GDP changed dramatically between Q1 and Q2, because Q1 GDP went down due to short-term effects such as bad weather, and a drop in exports. And that most people aren't in a position to "feel" the difference between one good quarter, and one bad quarter.



The stock market isn't much of an economic indicator. It's more an indicator in the confidence that people and institutions have in future stock prices.

For example, the economic news this week was pretty much right down the middle, notably unemployment hasn't changed much. And yet, the US stock market had a broad-based across-the-board downturn. Why? Not because the economy was tanking, but because investors were terrified that the Federal Reserve was going to hike interest rates.

Further, the idea that the BEA is manipulating figures to keep the stock market higher is blatantly absurd, and basically a conspiracy theory. Why would the BEA ever admit any bad news, if that was the case? Why would it have published the Q1 GDP losses? Ridiculous.


No, THIS stock market is not a indicator of anything conventional.

Its a direct indicator of peoples confidence that QE will either STOP or CONTINUE.

Thats all.

And a 4 percent drop in GDP because of " the weather " ?

The attempt to attribute that to something that happens once a year and every year is a INDICATOR of just how desperate left wing ideologues are when it comes to protecting their President.

Plus, winters in Texas are known to be pretty mild.
 
No, THIS stock market is not a indicator of anything conventional.

Its a direct indicator of peoples confidence that QE will either STOP or CONTINUE.

Thats all.

And a 4 percent drop in GDP because of " the weather " ?

The attempt to attribute that to something that happens once a year and every year is a INDICATOR of just how desperate left wing ideologues are when it comes to protecting their President.

Plus, winters in Texas are known to be pretty mild.

The Fed doesn't have that much power over markets
 
No, THIS stock market is not a indicator of anything conventional.

Its a direct indicator of peoples confidence that QE will either STOP or CONTINUE.

Thats all.

And a 4 percent drop in GDP because of " the weather " ?

The attempt to attribute that to something that happens once a year and every year is a INDICATOR of just how desperate left wing ideologues are when it comes to protecting their President.

Plus, winters in Texas are known to be pretty mild.

This was not an average winter.
Plus, while most of the attention was focused on the North East, the South West, where most of the fruits and vegetables are grown, has been experiencing unprecedented drought.

So, weather could easily drop the GDP that much. Another similar winter, and it will drop even more.
 
I think it is good news, but the primary worry is the jump in inventory which could indicate a slumping marketplace.

Or it could mean that retailers expect our economy to improve at an even faster rate in the near future.

Also, if we believe that production comes before demand, then the supply side is doing the right thing - creating jobs and increasing inventory. Soon, the increase in production should result in an increase in demand due to consumers having more jobs and thus more money to spend and save.
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Btw, the DOW has dropped over 300 points today.

For the record, on December 31, 2013 the DOW closed at 16,576.73.

Right now it is 16,569.33.

So it's down for the year, so far.

That's a good indicator that we are not in a stock market bubble - the fact that the dow has kept within a fairly tight range. Also a good indicator that we are very unlikely to fall into another recession due to any financial bubble-burst cycle.
 
Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

I pulled my money out of the market and put it into govt. bonds. The market seems real nervous and bi-polar. More nervous than usual.

I wouldn't think that at all with the DOW trading within such a tight range. It would appear to me that investors overall feel that the market is correctly priced.
 
I don't believe it. From -2.1% to 4%, too big leap forward. Do you feel the economy improves that much? ...

What would lead you to believe that the economy declined so much first quarter?

Most economists are attributing that huge and unexpected loss to the weather. If that is correct, then a huge gain should have been expected the following quarter to offset that temporarly loss. The loss probably created pent-up demamd, which was released 2nd Q. My expectation for the third quarter would be some stabilization of growth, probably right around the 2% that we have become accustomed to.

Another possible explaination for the decline in 1st Q was due to people down talking our economy due to Obamacare. We had people like Rush predicting that our economy would collapse due to Obamacare. That didn't happen, but maybe to a small degree his predictions became a self fulfilling prophecy. Then when those crazies on the far right realized that he was wrong, we made up for the loss and carried on with business.
 
Or it could mean that retailers expect our economy to improve at an even faster rate in the near future.

Also, if we believe that production comes before demand, then the supply side is doing the right thing - creating jobs and increasing inventory. Soon, the increase in production should result in an increase in demand due to consumers having more jobs and thus more money to spend and save.

It is always good to be optimistic and keep in mind that optimism can be dangerous to the quality of decisions built thereon. In this case the thing to watch is that a buildup of inventory means that the company no longer requires to buy until consumers have bought it. This means that to maintain the level of gdp we need growth of demand.
 
It is always good to be optimistic and keep in mind that optimism can be dangerous to the quality of decisions built thereon. In this case the thing to watch is that a buildup of inventory means that the company no longer requires to buy until consumers have bought it. This means that to maintain the level of gdp we need growth of demand.

Sure.

What I was really getting at is that some on the far right seem to have this believe that demand is dependent upon supply. Even to the point that if producers randomly cranked up production beyond demand, that demand would increase to meet production.

And there is some legitimate bases for that belief. If producers crank up production, then more jobs will be created, and consumers will have more money to spend. Alternativly, if consumers didn't spend more, prices would likely fall as produces had to compete harder for sales, and the value of the dollar would increase due to deflation - resulting in more products being purchased for the same amount of money.

Typically our economy doesn't exactly work like that though because businesses do no seek to produce more goods than they expect to sell, thus there is rarely overproduction. Production normally follows the lead of demand, not the other way around.

Now looking at this particular point in time, if half our growth was due to a build up of inventory, it's entirely possible that the other half of our growth which was demand driven, was also indirectly caused by that same build up in inventory. As long as the fruits of that production growth are shared proportionately between all income classes, demand should catch up to production soon.

If the fruits of production aren't shared, then what you are suggesting may very well happen - a future cutback in production resulting in even lower demand, and thus potentially another recession.

Regardless, there has to be a balance of allocation of money, between supply and demand, to maximize economic growth. We haven't had that balance since the Great Divergence.
 
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This was not an average winter.
Plus, while most of the attention was focused on the North East, the South West, where most of the fruits and vegetables are grown, has been experiencing unprecedented drought.

So, weather could easily drop the GDP that much. Another similar winter, and it will drop even more.


Sorry, I'm not buying it for one minute.

When was the last time WEATHER caused a 4 percent drop in GDP ?
 
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