U.S. economy bounces back sharply

apdst · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

This isn't a bounce back. It's makeup work for what didn't happen during the winter; it's no net increase.

Fenton · Jul 31, 2014

DA60 said:
Apparently the 'bounce back' maybe a dead cat...or a sick one anyway.

'The Chicago purchasing managers index unexpectedly plunged to 52.6 in July from 62.6 in May.
Economists were expecting the index to climb to 63.0.

"A monthly fall of this magnitude has not been seen since October 2008 and left the Barometer at its lowest level since June 2013," said MNI Chicago in its press release'

Chicago PMI, July 2014 - Business Insider

It would seem that the Obama apologist are more concerned with manufacturing the facade of economic improvement than they are in providing a objective and comprehensive analysis.

DA60 · Jul 31, 2014

Fenton said:
It would seem that the Obama apologist are more concerned with manufacturing the facade of economic improvement than they are in providing a objective and comprehensive analysis.

I have said it many times before...partisan politics is destroying America.

It staggers my mind that SO many intelligent people are so completely blind to the absolute ridiculousness of Neo-Keynesian economic theory (something the left has seemingly fully embraced).

What kind of a moronic system believes in spending massive amounts of debt money to prop up an economy...but if it does not work, just spend even more.

Throwing money at a problem until there is no more money to throw requires no skill and a suspension of common sense.

Forget innovation or experimentation or new ideas or hard work or even free market...just spend, spend, spend. Whether it's cash or credit...if you can get it...spend it. And it does not matter what you buy...just buy it.

And the truly sad and frustrating part is that when all this eventually fails...most Keynesian's (like Krugman) will simply say 'we did not spend enough, fast enough'.

Keynesianism...a moocher's paradise.

donsutherland1 · Jul 31, 2014

apdst said:
This isn't a bounce back. It's makeup work for what didn't happen during the winter; it's no net increase.

IMO, it is premature to suggest that the 4.0% annualized growth in Q2 marks the start of a sustained period of faster economic growth e.g., annualized real growth consistently above 3%.

The "makeup" as you termed it reflected demand that had been deferred, in large part, for the temporary factors that led to a very bad first quarter. Weather was one factor, but not the only one. Aside from non-weather-related issues, some slowing following the robust Q4 activity (3.5% annualized rate) might also have contributed to the bad Q1 outcome.

Over the past year, GDP has grown 2.4%. The average annual growth rate since the end of the recession has been 2.1%. At least for me, it is too soon to be sure that economic growth is now moving onto a path that will see it accelerate materially from its post-recession average. Barring subsequent data, I still believe the narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth remains more likely than the start of a period of sustained robust growth, at least through the rest of this year.

Lovebug · Jul 31, 2014

DA60 said:
Means nothing...wait for the final revision (then few will pay attention).

They dropped Q1 from +0.1% initially all the way down to -2.1% in th final revision...clearly (IMO) they are either incompetent and/or being influenced.

Means nothing? You'll be surprised to know that good news has quite an effect on spending habits. Sadly, it seems that too many profit by focusing on the negative, making a grand living actually.

DA60 · Jul 31, 2014

donsutherland1 said:
IMO, it is premature to suggest that the 4.0% annualized growth in Q2 marks the start of a sustained period of faster economic growth e.g., annualized real growth consistently above 3%.

The "makeup" as you termed it reflected demand that had been deferred, in large part, for the temporary factors that led to a very bad first quarter. Weather was one factor, but not the only one. Aside from non-weather-related issues, some slowing following the robust Q4 activity (3.5% annualized rate) might also have contributed to the bad Q1 outcome.

Over the past year, GDP has grown 2.4%. The average annual growth rate since the end of the recession has been 2.1%. At least for me, it is too soon to be sure that economic growth is now moving onto a path that will see it accelerate materially from its post-recession average. Barring subsequent data, I still believe the narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth remains more likely than the start of a period of sustained robust growth, at least through the rest of this year.

That growth has been with the aid of artificially low interest rates and over $12 trillion in government/Fed money thrown at the economy since the recession began.

When the economy can stand on it's own without these crutches, only then is it 'healthy'.

And IMO, that will never happen.

I believe that the first Q the Fed ends QE once and for all and starts to raise interest rates the economy will collapse (how far, I do not know).

I believe the economy is a mess...with the Fed indirectly propping up equities (and making the rich, richer) whilst the rest of the economy outsources to other countries and trades in quality full time jobs for lower paying part time ones because the Fed/federal government refuses to allow prices to reach their 'natural' reset levels from the skewed prices just before the housing bubble burst.

It is the Mercedes-McDonald's recovery...and it's powered by debt (as opposed to solid fundamentals).

And IMO, it's a mirage.

DA60 · Jul 31, 2014

Lovebug said:
Means nothing? You'll be surprised to know that good news has quite an effect on spending habits. Sadly, it seems that too many profit by focusing on the negative, making a grand living actually.

Means nothing as in I do not believe it is remotely accurate and will be revised significantly downwards in a few months.

I assumed that was obvious.

Maybe not.

EnigmaO01 · Jul 31, 2014

WCH said:
Yep, expect glowingly good reports through the election cycle.

And expect those on the other side of the aisle and those that despise Obama to poo poo any good news.

polgara · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

fmw said:
Yes and we've had touches of it. Just recently General Motors was taken from the stockholders and operated by the government. The company was freed after the debt was forgiven but it was a socialized company for a while. I read never ending hatred of corporations from the left on this forum and the desire to have the government get involved with how they are managed. It is horrifying to me. Definitely trending toward socialism. Hopefully we can reverse the trend.

:agree: Same type of thinking has ruined many countries' economies over the years, as history has shown us. Think Russia and other countries who have learned the hard way - Shoddy goods that no one wants to buy.

Why anyone would think we could be the first to beat the odds is puzzling to me. It destroys incentive to innovate to stay competitive; it takes away the worker's desire to do the best job they can - why bother when ideas for improvement won't even get a hearing; and it squelches the human spirit to be thought of as nothing more than a human robot with no brains of their own!

I cite the ACA as a good example of what government interference in the free market can look like. Tweaks may have been needed, but to overturn an entire sector of our economy was not needed, IMO. Time will tell what the result will be, but looking at countries with socialized medicine today should give us a clue on what to expect - higher cost with lowered standard of health care for those who do not have the means to buy better for themselves.

Greetings, fmw. :2wave:

DA60 · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

a351 said:
Cherry picking select indicators on a month by month basis while ignoring long term trends is pretty close to useless. It's fairly apparent that you're not interested in looking at any positive indicators that run contrary to your own beliefs.

LOL...so you are posting in a thread about the latest government numbers PLUS you have commented in other threads (many times?) that were referencing the latest economic numbers.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/us-pa...-again-president-obama-14.html#post1063546766

Yet, you call using the last official government numbers on employment 'cherry picking'?

Can you spell 'hypocrisy'?

So, for the record everyone, a351 now considers using the latest official government statistics about major areas of the economy (employment, in this case) as 'cherry picking'.

It has long been clear to me that your mind is completely closed on this issue and further discussion with you on this would be a huge waste of my time.

You are on my ignore list...life is too short to waste on the closed minded.

Good day.

fmw · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

polgara said:
:agree: Same type of thinking has ruined many countries' economies over the years, as history has shown us. Think Russia and other countries who have learned the hard way - Shoddy goods that no one wants to buy.

Why anyone would think we could be the first to beat the odds is puzzling to me. It destroys incentive to innovate to stay competitive; it takes away the worker's desire to do the best job they can - why bother when ideas for improvement won't even get a hearing; and it squelches the human spirit to be thought of as nothing more than a human robot with no brains of their own!

I cite the ACA as a good example of what government interference in the free market can look like. Tweaks may have been needed, but to overturn an entire sector of our economy was not needed, IMO. Time will tell what the result will be, but looking at countries with socialized medicine today should give us a clue on what to expect - higher cost with lowered standard of health care for those who do not have the means to buy better for themselves.

Greetings, fmw. :2wave:

Greetings, Polgara. I wish I could get the government to run all of my competitors' businesses. That would certainly give me a leg up. It's hard to imagine where the socialist tendencies arised in today's youth. It certainly wasn't from the history of american business.

fmw · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Dittohead not! said:
The General Motors bailout and subsequent control by government is an example of an experiment in socialism. It didn't last long.
Does the "left" really want the government to start running corporations, or are they simply opposed to the corporations running the government?

It must be the former since business definitely doesn't run the government.

Dittohead not! · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

fmw said:
It must be the former since business definitely doesn't run the government.

Don't be so sure.
Corporations have the money it takes to keep campaigns going and lobbyists employed. The average person does not.

fmw · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Dittohead not! said:
Don't be so sure.
Corporations have the money it takes to keep campaigns going and lobbyists employed. The average person does not.

I never said the average person runs the government.

Dittohead not! · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

fmw said:
I never said the average person runs the government.

No, you said that corporations do not.

So, just who do you think does run the government?

fmw · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Dittohead not! said:
No, you said that corporations do not.

So, just who do you think does run the government?

Politicians, political appointees and bureaucrats, obviously.

Dittohead not! · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

fmw said:
Politicians, political appointees and bureaucrats, obviously.

And who elects the politicians who then appoint the political appointees who hire the bureaucrats?

fmw · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Dittohead not! said:
And who elects the politicians who then appoint the political appointees who hire the bureaucrats?

Doesn't matter. People have choices limited by the political parties. Voters do not run the government either. Politicians, political appointees and bureaucrats do.

DA60 · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Btw, the DOW has dropped over 300 points today.

For the record, on December 31, 2013 the DOW closed at 16,576.73.

Right now it is 16,569.33.

So it's down for the year, so far.

Dittohead not! · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

fmw said:
Doesn't matter. People have choices limited by the political parties. Voters do not run the government either. Politicians, political appointees and bureaucrats do.

Are you discounting the influence of money on these politicians, appointees and bureaucrats?

ludin · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

average GDP growth in a health economy will be 3-6% in a year.
a recession recover should see a gdp growth of 7-10%.

the fact that we are just now reaching 4% says that the overall health of the economy is bad more so if it gets reduced which more than likely it will.

Fenton · Jul 31, 2014

EnigmaO01 said:
And expect those on the other side of the aisle and those that despise Obama to poo poo any good news.

We're still waiting for that " Good news "

fmw · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Dittohead not! said:
Are you discounting the influence of money on these politicians, appointees and bureaucrats?

No, I didn't suggest for a minute that they are free of corruption. In fact, I consider them corrupt to the point of disability.

Dittohead not! · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

fmw said:
No, I didn't suggest for a minute that they are free of corruption. In fact, I consider them corrupt to the point of disability.

Correct, and the money comes from the wealthy corporations, mainly.

So, who is really running things in Washington?

fmw · Jul 31, 2014

Re: US GDP Grows 4% in Q2, Beating Expectations

Dittohead not! said:
Correct, and the money comes from the wealthy corporations, mainly.

So, who is really running things in Washington?

I already answered that twice.

U.S. economy bounces back sharply

apdst

Fenton

DA60

donsutherland1

Lovebug

Be humble and kind

DA60

DA60

EnigmaO01

polgara

DA60

fmw

fmw

Dittohead not!

master political analyst

fmw

Dittohead not!

master political analyst

fmw

Dittohead not!

master political analyst

fmw

DA60

Dittohead not!

master political analyst

ludin

Fenton

fmw

Dittohead not!

master political analyst

fmw