U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

Montecresto said:

Thanks imagep! "Burdened" was the key word. After 200 years of accumulation, we had a 900 billion ND. In eight short years of the Reagan administration that had tripled. Bush-2 doubled it from 5-10, Obama is on track to doubling it again. The Reagan era ended our lending policies and made us the biggest debtor nation. My point. We have a systemic problem, not a particular party problem.

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True. But what did you expect?

1/2 of the people want more and more and more from the government, and the other 1/2 of the people don't want to pay for it.

The government, that'd be the politicians, don't have the backbone to tell first 1/2 'No', and nor do they have the backbone to tell the second 1/2 they have to pay for it. Solution: Government can borrow more and politicians appease both groups and stay in office.

Everyone does realize that it's the government's entitlement programs that are driving the debt, right?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

imagep said:

Take a look at where Reagan was compared to Carter five years into his presidency. Or where the second Bush was compared to Clinton.

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Compare Obama to all of them.

eohrnberger said:

True. But what did you expect?

1/2 of the people want more and more and more from the government, and the other 1/2 of the people don't want to pay for it.

The government, that'd be the politicians, don't have the backbone to tell first 1/2 'No', and nor do they have the backbone to tell the second 1/2 they have to pay for it. Solution: Government can borrow more and politicians appease both groups and stay in office.

Everyone does realize that it's the government's entitlement programs that are driving the debt, right?

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I have no expectations! Partisanship has dashed all such hopes of a remedy by only being concerned about a growing national debt (or ant problem for that matter) when the opposing party is in power.

Montecresto said:

That's subjective. Meanwhile, we've been burdened with national debt for 35 years, both parties nearly equally contributing to it, receding economy and political gridlock, and blaming it all on one person or party seems the best solution to you.:roll:

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There's nothing subjective about the truth.

Fenton said:

There's nothing subjective about the truth.

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And there are no similarities between truth and partisan talking points.

Montecresto said:

And there are no similarities between truth and partisan talking points.

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What ''talking points ?

I'm a Conservative, so I'm not really accustomed using talking points.

Im great at identifying them, when people like you devolve down to using then.

Fenton said:

What ''talking points ?

I'm a Conservative, so I'm not really accustomed using talking points.

Im great at identifying them, when people like you devolve down to using then.

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All partisans such as yourself use the daily talking points memo, both sides. Now if your criticisms of US policy, both domestic and foreign, were fair and balanced, that is to say, you called out ALL wrong doing, not just wrong doing you observe in the Democratic Party, then you wouldn't find yourself labeled such.

842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)

Although the GDP of the first quarter of 2014 is the sharpest decline in five years, another index of economy goes in contrary way. The Dow Jones index reaches its history high(over 17,000) on July 3, 2014. Since April – despite the poor economy that GDP suffered a big loss – the stock market remains in high level. Obviously, the ruler of this country is planning a rising stock market trap. They don’t want the bad news of fallen GDP to interrupt their plan. Then we saw this dramatic GDP cheating opera. They deliberately put the original report of first quarter GDP having 0.1% increase. That’s the minimum unit to separate two thorough different worlds – positive and negative. With this small 0.1%, people thought the US economy was still increasing, though at the cliff of recession. With other cheating method and propaganda, they keep Americans in a dream that US economy is going to prosperous. Here is how Dow Jones index kept rushing to its recent peak – watch the timing (from April to June) while actually economy is in recession.

Dow Highest Closing Record

The Dow historical closing high is 16,947.08 set June 20, 2014. Normally, investors say "sell in May," but that's why you can't time the market. The Dow is on a winning streak, after falling to 15,372.80 on February 3. Here's this year's streak:

•16,945.92 on June 10
•16,943.10 on June 9
•16,924.28 on June 6
•16,836.11 on June 5
•16,743.63 on June 2
• 16,717.17 on May 30
•16,715.44 on May 13
•16,695.47 on May 12
•16,583.34 on May 9
•16,580.84 on April 30

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Be noticed that April 30 was the day they gave original report of the first quarter GDP. Could you see from this chart how they build this upward ladder to lure innocent people in to join this “rush to pick up the peak fruit” movement?


843. Psychological trick (7/10/2014)

All the three claimed figures of the first quarter GDP were meticulously selected to make it a smooth cheating.

1. They said it increased 0.1%. A minimum number of 0.1 to make it a positive increase.
2. They said it decreased 1.0%. 1 is the smallest integer, next to 1 is 0. So they hint it’s a smallest decrease.
3. They said it decreased 2.9%. People know the merchants used to price the merchandise at 99 cents. It’s a psychological gimmick. They used the same trick to avoid an upper numerical grade.

They split the decrease number in three gradual decreasing number, buffered the impact on people psychologically. With other cheating method, they successfully push the stock market to history high while US economy is in recession.
They invent another method to calculate the unemployment and say It is only 6.1% right now. They told you so while actually one third of Americans are unemployed.

People in government lie to us because they can

When faced with the highest levels of unemployment in American History why does the government trumpet a falling unemployment rate?

By Dr. Robert Owens

(INTELLIHUB) –
The Corporations Once Known as the Mainstream Media regales us with oxymoronic statements such as, “Despite the unemployment rate plummeting, more than 92 million Americans remain out of the labor force.” The Great Recession grinds on in the lives of everyday working people while our leaders talk about a recovery that only benefits them and their cronies.

People in government lie to us because they can - Intellihub.com

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Montecresto said:

All partisans such as yourself use the daily talking points memo, both sides. Now if your criticisms of US policy, both domestic and foreign, were fair and balanced, that is to say, you called out ALL wrong doing, not just wrong doing you observe in the Democratic Party, then you wouldn't find yourself labeled such.

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Bwahahaha !

Pot meet kettle.

To be accused of being partisan by someone who bought the whole " Bush lied people died " narrative hook, line and sinker is rich.

Here's your problem. You have to continue to attempt to draw parallels from Obama to past administrations because you're a loyal left wing partisan but can no longer ignore his failures

But your mitigations are still arbitrary and influenced by your ideology and better yet, influenced by stale and warmed over left wing talking points.

Its boring listening to you dredge up 10 year old empty platitudes about Bush.

Fenton said:

Bwahahaha !

Pot meet kettle.

To be accused of being partisan by someone who bought the whole " Bush lied people died " narrative hook, line and sinker is rich.

Here's your problem. You have to continue to attempt to draw parallels from Obama to past administrations because you're a loyal left wing partisan but can no longer ignore his failures

But your mitigations are still arbitrary and influenced by your ideology and better yet, influenced by stale and warmed over left wing talking points.

Its boring listening to you dredge up 10 year old empty platitudes about Bush.

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Except for one thing. I don't defend this president on everything he does, as you will find from the partisan left on this board. Can you post links of me defending Obamacare, his drone program, his border policy, his use of the military in the ME, his provocations to China in the WestPac, no you can't. What you will find however is that I'm critical of all that. And that is what legitimises my critique of Bush or any other of Obama's predecessors. If one only criticises the opposing party, such as yourself, then he is a partisan.

Reaffirming the continuation of a narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth, GDP rebounded in Q2. Real GDP grew at an annualized 4.0% rate compared with the annualized 2.1% contraction in Q1.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2014/pdf/gdp2q14_adv.pdf

donsutherland1 said:

Reaffirming the continuation of a narrative of modest to occasionally moderate growth, GDP rebounded in Q2. Real GDP grew at an annualized 4.0% rate compared with the annualized 2.1% contraction in Q1.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2014/pdf/gdp2q14_adv.pdf

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I suppose some will look at this as a positive rebound when the reality is the economy is stagnant at best and far too many people have such low standards that they accept the low economic growth, high unemployment, and high debt as the new normal. This country wasn't built on low standards, goals, and expectations.

Conservative said:

I suppose some will look at this as a positive rebound when the reality is the economy is stagnant at best and far too many people have such low standards that they accept the low economic growth, high unemployment, and high debt as the new normal. This country wasn't built on low standards, goals, and expectations.

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I'd like to see growth sustained at more robust levels. But this report is important as it puts aside concerns that the U.S. was slipping into a new recession, concerns most economists did not share.

donsutherland1 said:

I'd like to see growth sustained at more robust levels. But this report is important as it puts aside concerns that the U.S. was slipping into a new recession, concerns most economists did not share.

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The traditional definition of a recession doesn't seem to apply to the millions of unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers who seem to be in more of a depression than recession. More importantly is the morale of the American people and their lack of confidence in the leadership or should I say lack of leadership we have today. Mindset is so important in our economy as well as our lives and poor leadership or lack of it breeds poor confidence.

Conservative said:

The traditional definition of a recession doesn't seem to apply to the millions of unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers who seem to be in more of a depression than recession. More importantly is the morale of the American people and their lack of confidence in the leadership or should I say lack of leadership we have today. Mindset is so important in our economy as well as our lives and poor leadership or lack of it breeds poor confidence.

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The point about the still elevated figures of long-duration unemployment (and broader measures) is a fair one. It should also be of concern to policy makers, as skills erode, relevant job networks shrink, etc., as the duration of unemployment increases.

Conservative said:

The traditional definition of a recession doesn't seem to apply to the millions of unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers who seem to be in more of a depression than recession. More importantly is the morale of the American people and their lack of confidence in the leadership or should I say lack of leadership we have today. Mindset is so important in our economy as well as our lives and poor leadership or lack of it breeds poor confidence.

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U6 SAAR Unemployment is around 12%. 2003 up to the recession it was hovering around 8-10%; after the crash it shot up to around 16%, so it's coming down. GDP is picking up; indeed, a 4% annualized growth rate would be huge, as the average annual growth rate since 1970 is about 3%. Of course it's not going to hit 4% given that a lot of this was probably a pickup from a slow Q1, but it's promising that GDP is on track to hit the average.

The only indicator worth debating, then, is labor force participation rate (CIVPART). You are correct that this has been declining since the recession, but in fact it actually peaked around 2000. There are so many factors involved in this data - the aging of the baby boomers, etc. - that it is insufficient to point to it as evidence of an unhealthy economy on its own.

Khayembii Communique said:

U6 SAAR Unemployment is around 12%. 2003 up to the recession it was hovering around 8-10%; after the crash it shot up to around 16%, so it's coming down. GDP is picking up; indeed, a 4% annualized growth rate would be huge, as the average annual growth rate since 1970 is about 3%. Of course it's not going to hit 4% given that a lot of this was probably a pickup from a slow Q1, but it's promising that GDP is on track to hit the average.

The only indicator worth debating, then, is labor force participation rate (CIVPART). You are correct that this has been declining since the recession, but in fact it actually peaked around 2000. There are so many factors involved in this data - the aging of the baby boomers, etc. - that it is insufficient to point to it as evidence of an unhealthy economy on its own.

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You are exactly the kind of person I have been talking about, someone with low expectations and low standards. Sorry but the reality is this country lacks leadership, has a campaigner in chief as the world and the U.S. economy suffers. The only thing holding this economy up are the red states with pro growth economic policies as well as capitalism. If this country were Europe we would be a true disaster like Greece today. I suggest setting higher standards and having higher expectations because you are going to get exactly what you expect out of someone who lacks leadership and management skills.

Notice how Obama is doing nothing more than going around the country raising cash and campaigning about impeachment, about those evil Republicans, and how bad business is? That isn't leadership, that is class warfare and this country wasn't built on this kind of negativity.

Conservative said:

You are exactly the kind of person I have been talking about, someone with low expectations and low standards. Sorry but the reality is this country lacks leadership, has a campaigner in chief as the world and the U.S. economy suffers. The only thing holding this economy up are the red states with pro growth economic policies as well as capitalism. If this country were Europe we would be a true disaster like Greece today. I suggest setting higher standards and having higher expectations because you are going to get exactly what you expect out of someone who lacks leadership and management skills.

Notice how Obama is doing nothing more than going around the country raising cash and campaigning about impeachment, about those evil Republicans, and how bad business is? That isn't leadership, that is class warfare and this country wasn't built on this kind of negativity.

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Your post has almost no relevance to mine you're supposedly responding to. Hitting average historic GDP growth would be a pretty damn good indicator that the economy is well on the way to recovery, and isn't in any way "low expectations"; unemployment is a lagging indicator and will always take longer to pick up given companies' historic experience through the recession and desire to retain lean cost structures going into a growth phase.

Khayembii Communique said:

Your post has almost no relevance to mine you're supposedly responding to. Hitting average historic GDP growth would be a pretty damn good indicator that the economy is well on the way to recovery, and isn't in any way "low expectations"; unemployment is a lagging indicator and will always take longer to pick up given companies' historic experience through the recession and desire to retain lean cost structures going into a growth phase.

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No, sorry but hitting average GDP Growth after the recession we had is very poor performance and should be the issue. This is a capitalistic economy where govt. spending has been propping it up and govt spending was a very low percentage of GDP in the past. Private businesses have incentive to grow, govt. is destroying that incentive. Still Companies are going to do what it takes and that is why this country is so different than Europe.

Conservative said:

No, sorry but hitting average GDP Growth after the recession we had is very poor performance and should be the issue. This is a capitalistic economy where govt. spending has been propping it up and govt spending was a very low percentage of GDP in the past. Private businesses have incentive to grow, govt. is destroying that incentive. Still Companies are going to do what it takes and that is why this country is so different than Europe.

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What GDP growth rate would you be satisfied with?

Also, government spending as percentage of GDP has been hovering around 35% since the 80's.

Khayembii Communique said:

What GDP growth rate would you be satisfied with?

Also, government spending as percentage of GDP has been hovering around 35% since the 80's.

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Reagan's average after a similar recession. He had over 7% during his term. Actually govt. spending was about 20% of GDP with the other three components making up the difference, That 35% is the low end of Europe's GDP

Conservative said:

You are exactly the kind of person I have been talking about, someone with low expectations and low standards. Sorry but the reality is this country lacks leadership, has a campaigner in chief as the world and the U.S. economy suffers. The only thing holding this economy up are the red states with pro growth economic policies as well as capitalism. If this country were Europe we would be a true disaster like Greece today. I suggest setting higher standards and having higher expectations because you are going to get exactly what you expect out of someone who lacks leadership and management skills.

Notice how Obama is doing nothing more than going around the country raising cash and campaigning about impeachment, about those evil Republicans, and how bad business is? That isn't leadership, that is class warfare and this country wasn't built on this kind of negativity.

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"Leadership?" Is that the problem? What metric do you use to gauge leadership? Is Obama supposed to will the economy to improve? Considering that Obama has gotten absolutely no cooperation from the GOP on anything, it is hard to lay governing at the feet of the President. What is psychotic is that you wingers say he is passive and not a leader, then complain that Obama is a dictator when he does things out of disgust for GOP inaction. The President can't enact legislation on his own. He needs Congress and the do-nothing House isn't interested in governing.

The fact that unemployment has dropped to pre-crisis levels; GDP is moving upward are all good signs, to the chagrin of people like you. Why? Because you are fully invested in Obama failing -- because having him succeed undercuts your right-wing ideology.

Conservative said:

Reagan's average after a similar recession. He had over 7% during his term.

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Ah yes, the single time that the economy has had a real annual GDP growth rate at that level in the past 40 years. That sounds like a perfectly reasonable expectation. :roll:

Actually govt. spending was about 20% of GDP with the other three components making up the difference, That 35% is the low end of Europe's GDP

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Are you looking at total or Federal government spending? Not that it matters, it's just a line shift but the trend is similar.

Conservative said:

Reagan's average after a similar recession. He had over 7% during his term. Actually govt. spending was about 20% of GDP with the other three components making up the difference, That 35% is the low end of Europe's GDP

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The recession of 1981 was nothing similar to the demand-lacking, liquidity trap, recession we have today. The 1981 recession was essential deliberately caused by the Fed raising interest rates to fend off inflation, when they took their foot off the breaks, everything bounced back. It was what economists call a V-shaped recession.

EDIT:

That Reagan recover did not "average" 7%. One year it rose for the reason that I mentioned. Overall, the Reagan years under-performed economically.



This shows what everyone was supposed to know: we had an awesome performance in the generation following the war (despite very high tax rates on the rich and a very strong union movement); we had a long period of poor productivity performance that spanned the Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush I administrations; we then had a revival during the Clinton administration, but even so not up to postwar standards. By the way, I don’t give Clinton credit for that revival; it was about learning to use technology. But in any case, there is no hint of a Reagan miracle in the data.

MTAtech said:

"Leadership?" Is that the problem? What metric do you use to gauge leadership? Is Obama supposed to will the economy to improve? Considering that Obama has gotten absolutely no cooperation from the GOP on anything, it is hard to lay governing at the feet of the President. What is psychotic is that you wingers say he is passive and not a leader, then complain that Obama is a dictator when he does things out of disgust for GOP inaction. The President can't enact legislation on his own. He needs Congress and the do-nothing House isn't interested in governing.

The fact that unemployment has dropped to pre-crisis levels; GDP is moving upward are all good signs, to the chagrin of people like you. Why? Because you are fully invested in Obama failing -- because having him succeed undercuts your right-wing ideology.

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No, leadership is about getting results through people and good leadership is about getting good results by getting people to work together. The Obama rhetoric doesn't promote good leadership nor do his policies of class warfare and envy. Reagan gave you the template but liberal arrogance refuses to accept it. It isn't the GOP's responsibility to show leadership, they are in the minority. It is the President's job and he isn't the first President to have opposition. Name for me one compromise of Obama during his term?

Like all liberals you focus on the minority when it is in your supposed best interest. The GOP has stopped NOTHING that Obama wanted during his first term when he had total control. The fact is unemployment has dropped because the base hasn't increased with population growth, only discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force are making the numbers look better than they are.

Noticed that it is the GOP House with is obstructionist but not Harry Reid for not debating GOP House bills. Why isn't that obstructionist? Do you think it is the legal right of the President to change bills that the Congress generated and passed? Do you think that ruling by Executive Order promotes bipartisanship? Do you think proposing a 3.9 trillion dollar budget shows fiscal responsibility? Do you think fund raising and attacking Republicans with the world burning is leadership?

What you show is how little you understand about leadership and the responsibilities of leadership. Obama is a perfect example of what not to do. My rightwigh ideology is what made this country great, free enterprise, pro growth, individual wealth creation, incentive. You ought to pay more attention to what works instead of trying to defend what hasn't