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U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487:681]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Why is it bad that the workforce participation rate is lowest in years?

That just means that we have a larger percent of our workforce that is financially secure enough that they don't have to work. Some of those people are in college, or retired, or have decided to be housemakers or stay at home moms and dads. Thirty years ago, back when conservatives talked about things like "values" and "family" and "education", those were thought to be good things, but now conservatives seem to be the anti-values/family/education party.

Also, if todays workforce participation rate is still higher than at any point prior to 1978, so in a way we are returning to the "good ole days".

PS - I believe that I read that as of last month all jobs lost during the Great Bush Recession had been recovered and that we now have a record number of jobs in the USA.

Several points:

While retirements explain part of the drop in labor force participation, one can't conclude that most or all of the drop is benign. At least some share of people who are pursuing education might actually have a preference of working. Education, of course, should provide them with greater labor market flexibility.

Most importantly, even as total employment is approaching pre-Recession levels (the recession began in 2007 Q4), a number of indicators remain quite problematic. Data related to the duration of unemployment, the share of long-term unemployed, broader unemployment measures, and information about people not in the labor force remain notably worse than they were just prior to the recession. Put simply, structural unemployment (jobs-skills mismatch) is greater than it was prior to the recession. Structural unemployment is more difficult to address than cyclical unemployment, as it has causes that go beyond the strength of the economy. Some of its remedies are long-term in nature e.g., education/training, and those remedies depend, in part, on fiscal investments that can be constrained by overall fiscal realities (e.g., deficits) and priorities.

Select data:

Employment_May2014.jpg
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Thanks for the red herrings.

The increasing efficiency of retail, the move online, and shrinking of this type of employment are long-term trends. It doesn't alter the fact that there was just a big jump in retail spending, which (again, keeping on track with the thread) indicates that the bad Q1 results do NOT indicate some fundamental weakness of the economy.

Are you guys really going to distract from every bit of positive economic news this week? Seriously?



Yeah, and the loss of jobs that will not be returning. Plays more into that truth about BO's economy.

Moreover I never said anything about that Retail catching a slight jump.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Yes. Absolutely and without question.

Do you even understand what Walgreens is considering? They were acquired by a Swiss company. They aren't going to close any stores, they aren't going to fire any US staff. All they are going to do is change their legal status from a US corporation to a Swiss corporation, which will let them exploit a huge tax loophole (possibly $4 billion over 5 years). This is happening just 2 years after they took a big tax credit from the state of Illinois.



Walgreens isn't a "small business." They're the largest pharmacy chain in the US. They had nearly $1 billion in sales last year with over 8000 stores. They've been acquiring other chains and expanding.



And you apparently continue to do anything you can to dump on the economic indicators that *might* show that Q2 will be in positive territory, and that Q1 was an anomaly.

What are you going to say if Q2 shows a healthy increase in GPD?

Sorry, wasn't clear when I talked about small businesses as that was never intended to be Walgreens, but it is the small businesses that are the engine that drives the U.S. economy and those are the businesses hurting under Obama.

Yes, I will continue to "dump" on Obama because he is clueless and has no concept as to how the private sector works. Only a true liberal will ignore actual economic policies and results picking and choosing which policy or which result supposedly supports their point of view. Such low standards you have. After the recession we had we should have seen 7+% economic growth but not under Obama where 2% is acceptable.

What am I going to say? It should have been better and would have been better because the base is so low.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

It just makes me think of Blockbusters. As the environment changes, so do the goods and services required to service that area. If you are making buggy whips in the day of the car...you will find yourself unemployed.


Heya Blue State. :2wave: That's a good example. But like what I had put up shows those jobs wont be returning or filled ever again. All businesses that will no long be making money nor hiring any. Nor selling any products.

1625612_10153842757735203_1647845648_n.jpg
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

As many of us not left of center have been saying, Obamacare is killing jobs and job growth. If it is not repealed, our country's better days will be behind us and not in our future. We are now in an out-of-control downward spiral economically. It will be entertaining at least to see the administration, the pundits and the apologists try to spin their way out of this one.

Obama is an abysmal failure and his policies are now coming to fruition. Can't blame this on Bush can they.

Can repealing Obamacare instantly solve the problem?I guess there are other factors contributing to this ongoing recession.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Sorry, wasn't clear when I talked about small businesses as that was never intended to be Walgreens, but it is the small businesses that are the engine that drives the U.S. economy and those are the businesses hurting under Obama.
So basically, you are no longer responding to my points, or the general discussion at hand. Good to know.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Yes. Absolutely and without question.

Do you even understand what Walgreens is considering? They were acquired by a Swiss company. They aren't going to close any stores, they aren't going to fire any US staff. All they are going to do is change their legal status from a US corporation to a Swiss corporation, which will let them exploit a huge tax loophole (possibly $4 billion over 5 years). This is happening just 2 years after they took a big tax credit from the state of Illinois.

Their obligations under the ACA won't change. They aren't affected by Keystone. They weren't acquired by a Swiss company because the CEO got a 4% tax hike this year. None of the stuff you posted is relevant to this possible change of its tax home.



Walgreens isn't a "small business." They're the largest pharmacy chain in the US. They had nearly $1 billion in sales last year with over 8000 stores. They've been acquiring other chains and expanding.



And you apparently continue to do anything you can to dump on the economic indicators that *might* show that Q2 will be in positive territory, and that Q1 was an anomaly.

What are you going to say if Q2 shows a healthy increase in GPD?

Let me give you an example of what good leadership and economic policies will do. Arguably the 81-82 recession with a 20 misery index was worse than than the 07-09 recession and yet Reagan was able to turn it around with a positive economic policy that put more money into the hands of the American people and that is what led to the economic activity increase generating almost 17 million jobs. Compare that to what we have today

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Original Data Value

Series Id: LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Years: 1980 to 2014

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1980 99879 99995 99713 99233 98945 98682 98796 98824 99077 99317 99545 99634
1981 99955 100191 100571 101056 101048 100298 100693 100689 100064 100378 100207 99645
1982 99692 99762 99672 99576 100116 99543 99493 99633 99504 99215 99112 99032
1983 99161 99089 99179 99560 99642 100633 101208 101608 102016 102039 102729 102996
1984 103201 103824 103967 104336 105193 105591 105435 105163 105490 105638 105972 106223
1985 106302 106555 106989 106936 106932 106505 106807 107095 107657 107847 108007 108216
1986 108887 108480 108837 108952 109089 109576 109810 110015 110085 110273 110475 110728
1987 110953 111257 111408 111794 112434 112246 112634 113057 112909 113282 113505 113793
1988 114016 114227 114037 114650 114292 114927 115060 115282 115356 115638 116100 116104

Highlighted are the employment numbers when the recession began, when it ended, and the end of the first term of Reagan along with the employment at the end of his Presidency. Very easy to understand what happened 5 5 years after the end of the 81-82 recession compared to what Reagan inherited, 100.7 million working Americans July 1981, 114 million working Americans 5 years later.

Compare that to the 146.3 million working Americans in December 2007 when the recession began to the 145.8 million working Americans today.

Leadership works, understanding of the private sector economy is better and we have neither today.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

So basically, you are no longer responding to my points, or the general discussion at hand. Good to know.

I have responded to your points which is something you never do. You don't seem to understand the private sector either and the engine that drives it, it isn't Walgreens or the big corporations, it is the small businesses that aren't even reflected in the BLS numbers. You are going to see this fall just how happy Americans are with Obamanomics.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Can repealing Obamacare instantly solve the problem?I guess there are other factors contributing to this ongoing recession.

The recession ended just a few months after Obama took office in 2009. We have been in a weak and prolonged recovery ever since. It took about ten years to recover from the great depression, so a weak and prolonged recovery should be expected.

And repealing Obamacare would do little, if anything, to improve things.

What I find interesting is that right after Obama took office, there were lots of conservatives claiming that the government should do nothing to stimulate the economy and that we should just let the recession burn itself out. Those people pretty much got what they wanted.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

The recession ended just a few months after Obama took office in 2009. We have been in a weak and prolonged recovery ever since. It took about ten years to recover from the great depression, so a weak and prolonged recovery should be expected.

And repealing Obamacare would do little, if anything, to improve things.

What I find interesting is that right after Obama took office, there were lots of conservatives claiming that the government should do nothing to stimulate the economy and that we should just let the recession burn itself out. Those people pretty much got what they wanted.

I don't recall the 842 billion dollar Obama stimulus doing nothing but I do recall Conservatives predicting the results that we have today coming from that stimulus. A stimulus was indeed needed just not the Obama stimulus that bailed out unions and gave people a $500 tax rebate check. The claims of Obama tax cuts are bull**** because they came with strings on them, "you do this and we will give you that" which is always the liberal way. Micromanaging the private sector economy is something the bureaucrats in D.C. do the same why they created a 17.5 trillion dollar debt, badly.

For someone who didn't vote for Obama, I can only assume that you voted for someone further left or didn't vote at all. I don't see a lot of credibility in your posts for a so called business owner but I do see a lot of excuses made for Obama and his policies.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

I don't recall the 842 billion dollar Obama stimulus doing nothing but I do recall Conservatives predicting the results that we have today coming from that stimulus. A stimulus was indeed needed just not the Obama stimulus that bailed out unions and gave people a $500 tax rebate check. The claims of Obama tax cuts are bull**** because they came with strings on them, "you do this and we will give you that" which is always the liberal way. Micromanaging the private sector economy is something the bureaucrats in D.C. do the same why they created a 17.5 trillion dollar debt, badly.

For someone who didn't vote for Obama, I can only assume that you voted for someone further left or didn't vote at all. I don't see a lot of credibility in your posts for a so called business owner but I do see a lot of excuses made for Obama and his policies.

I do agree that the spendulous bill was a huge screwup. It was political payoloa to his cronies and never was intended to do what we needed stimulous to do. It was horribly mismanaged, and a horrible bill to begin with.

What makes you believe that I supported the spendulous bill? I am pretty sure that the rebate checks went out under Bush, not Obama, you might want to double check on that. I don't remember any Obama tax cuts, but I do believe that middle class tax cuts are needed now to get our economy going.

I suspect that you are such a ideolog that you can't imagine anyone being anything other than that. There are some of us who could care less about ideologies or being members of political clubs, or siding up on teams. The only thing I really care about is finding out what the truth is, and how things can be done better in the future.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

Can repealing Obamacare instantly solve the problem?I guess there are other factors contributing to this ongoing recession.

It would bee a hell of a start
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

I do agree that the spendulous bill was a huge screwup. It was political payoloa to his cronies and never was intended to do what we needed stimulous to do. It was horribly mismanaged, and a horrible bill to begin with.

What makes you believe that I supported the spendulous bill? I am pretty sure that the rebate checks went out under Bush, not Obama, you might want to double check on that. I don't remember any Obama tax cuts, but I do believe that middle class tax cuts are needed now to get our economy going.

I suspect that you are such a ideolog that you can't imagine anyone being anything other than that. There are some of us who could care less about ideologies or being members of political clubs, or siding up on teams. The only thing I really care about is finding out what the truth is, and how things can be done better in the future.

Bush gave a downpayment on his tax cuts with a $500 dollar rebate check in July 2001 before the bigger tax cut actually went into effect. The Bush tax cuts were ongoing and cut actual rates putting more money into all taxpayers' paychecks. Obama's so called tax cut to individuals was a rebate check plus other tax credits if those people performed some kind of activity. There were no strings to either the Bush or Reagan tax cuts, all you had to do was be an income earner.

As for being an ideologue, I grew up a staunch Democrat in a Depression era family but grew out of it when I realized that the Democrat Party of JFK changed and became the entitlement liberal party taking money from those who produce to give to those who don't. I can spend my money quite well and probably give more to charity than many here actually make. I have voted for Democrats and Republicans and was like far too many here believing in an ideology instead of actual economic results. I am a conservative and used to be a conservative Democrat until the party left me.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Bush gave a downpayment on his tax cuts with a $500 dollar rebate check in July 2001 before the bigger tax cut actually went into effect. The Bush tax cuts were ongoing and cut actual rates putting more money into all taxpayers' paychecks. Obama's so called tax cut to individuals was a rebate check plus other tax credits if those people performed some kind of activity. There were no strings to either the Bush or Reagan tax cuts, all you had to do was be an income earner.

As for being an ideologue, I grew up a staunch Democrat in a Depression era family but grew out of it when I realized that the Democrat Party of JFK changed and became the entitlement liberal party taking money from those who produce to give to those who don't. I can spend my money quite well and probably give more to charity than many here actually make. I have voted for Democrats and Republicans and was like far too many here believing in an ideology instead of actual economic results. I am a conservative and used to be a conservative Democrat until the party left me.

Did you forget about the George Bush free money stimulous in 2008, or are you just pretending that it didn't happen?


Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The IRS added together a $600 rebate for the parent and $600 for the two children to get $1,200, then subtracted the phaseout reduction of $750 ($50 for each $1,000 income above $75,000) to get $450...As 2008 began, economic indicators suggested an increased risk of recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before Congress that quick action was needed to stimulate the economy through targeted government spending and tax incentives.[SUP][10][/SUP] Congress moved rapidly to pass such legislation. The legislation was designed to stimulate spending by businesses and consumers during 2008. The hope was that the targeted individual tax rebates would boost consumer spending and that targeted tax incentives would boost business spending.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Did you forget about the George Bush free money stimulous in 2008, or are you just pretending that it didn't happen?


Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Didn't forget it at all, never have and never will support rebate checks. Bush was leaving office and Bush did the right thing in leaving half of the TARP money for Obama not knowing that Obama would recycle the money and get his zealots to blame Bush for the deficit. The recession ended in June 2009, what do you think caused that?
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Didn't forget it at all, never have and never will support rebate checks.

So you were just pretending that the free money in the mail program of 2008 didn't happen. Selective memory is a common trait among ideologues.

Bush was leaving office and Bush did the right thing in leaving half of the TARP money for Obama not knowing that Obama would recycle the money and get his zealots to blame Bush for the deficit. The recession ended in June 2009, what do you think caused that?

I thought that it ended in March or April of 2009, but regardless of that, I think it had just pretty much burned itself out. The spendulous bill probably did contribute slightly, but mostly likely for psychological reasons more than anything else (I am under the impression that the recession ended about the same time that the first spendulous checks were being distributed).

Regardless, no president was going to stand by and let our economy go down the toilet while doing nothing. I don't care who was elected, that person would have pushed for some sort of stimulous program.

I would have preferred massive tax cuts for the worker/consumer class, and a significant reduction in corporate income tax rates.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

Let me give you an example of what good leadership and economic policies will do. Arguably the 81-82 recession with a 20 misery index was worse than than the 07-09 recession and yet Reagan was able to turn it around with a positive economic policy that put more money into the hands of the American people and that is what led to the economic activity increase generating almost 17 million jobs. Compare that to what we have today

Highlighted are the employment numbers when the recession began, when it ended, and the end of the first term of Reagan along with the employment at the end of his Presidency. Very easy to understand what happened 5 5 years after the end of the 81-82 recession compared to what Reagan inherited, 100.7 million working Americans July 1981, 114 million working Americans 5 years later.

Compare that to the 146.3 million working Americans in December 2007 when the recession began to the 145.8 million working Americans today.

Leadership works, understanding of the private sector economy is better and we have neither today.

So please, tell me what Reagan did and I'll let Obama know he should do it. Should Reagan raise taxes like he did in 1982? The national debt tripled during Reagan's presidency, so that's not something the Democrats need to learn how to do. Maybe it was the deregulation of industry that Carter started? I'm guessing that you're thinking about the magic wand our great leader waved which made everything all better.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

So please, tell me what Reagan did and I'll let Obama know he should do it. Should Reagan raise taxes like he did in 1982? The national debt tripled during Reagan's presidency, so that's not something the Democrats need to learn how to do. Maybe it was the deregulation of industry that Carter started? I'm guessing that you're thinking about the magic wand our great leader waved which made everything all better.


Well, Obama could learn something from Clinton, and lower Capital Gains taxes.

But Obama increased them along with taxes on dividends.

He could have NOT passed a law that mandated unquantifiable cost increases on Business and consumers years before its implementation.

What a fantastic way to kill a economy.

He could STOP with the AGW scam and stop targeting Coal.

He could obey the damn law and control our borders too.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q

So please, tell me what Reagan did and I'll let Obama know he should do it. Should Reagan raise taxes like he did in 1982? The national debt tripled during Reagan's presidency, so that's not something the Democrats need to learn how to do. Maybe it was the deregulation of industry that Carter started? I'm guessing that you're thinking about the magic wand our great leader waved which made everything all better.

From what I understand, he spent our country into prosperity.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

From what I understand, he spent our country into prosperity.


As opposed to whats happening now ?
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

As opposed to whats happening now ?

Very different from what is happening now.

When the POTUS is a republican, republicans (not that I am equating republicans with extremist conservatives like yourself) tend not to make a big deal about deficit spending, and dems are of course happy to help republicans spend. When we have a dem as POTUS, suddenly republicans become against government spending, and they work against dems to constrain spending.

It's a historic fact that when we have a republican POTUS, deficit spending increases faster than under democrat presidents.

From my point of view as an independent moderate, that's about the only reason why I prefer a dem as president and republicans controlling congress. This combination seems to be most effective in limiting government.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

Very different from what is happening now.

When the POTUS is a republican, republicans (not that I am equating republicans with extremist conservatives like yourself) tend not to make a big deal about deficit spending, and dems are of course happy to help republicans spend. When we have a dem as POTUS, suddenly republicans become against government spending, and they work against dems to constrain spending.

It's a historic fact that when we have a republican POTUS, deficit spending increases faster than under democrat presidents.

From my point of view as an independent moderate, that's about the only reason why I prefer a dem as president and republicans controlling congress. This combination seems to be most effective in limiting government.

Deficit spending under Obama is LOWER than it was under Bush ?


Honestly, how you can say that with a straight face is beyond me ?

Especially after the last 6 years.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

Deficit spending under Obama is LOWER than it was under Bush ?


Honestly, how you can say that with a straight face is beyond me ?

Especially after the last 6 years.

It depends on how you look at it, and what metrics you chose to ignore and which ones you chose to use as examples and how you adjust those figures (inflation, population growth, percent of GDP, etc). One can make an argument either way.

Growth of discretionary spending has been lower under Obama than any other recent president. If you want to lower non-discretionary spending, you need to look to congress to cut social security and medicare.

Regardless, under Obama, our deficit has so far increased by a much smaller percent than under Reagan.

Administration_chart_0.png


Growth-of-Deficit-WSJ.jpg


Slowest-Spending-WSJ.jpg


Slowest-Spending-TPM.png
 
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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks By Most Since Great Recession in 1Q[W:487]

It depends on how you look at it, and what metrics you chose to ignore and which ones you chose to use as examples and how you adjust those figures (inflation, population growth, percent of GDP, etc). One can make an argument either way.

Growth of discretionary spending has been lower under Obama than any other recent president. If you want to lower non-discretionary spending, you need to look to congress to cut social security and medicare.

Regardless, under Obama, our deficit has so far increased by a much smaller percent than under Reagan.

Administration_chart_0.png


Lets look at it HONESTLY.

Obama signed 9 out of the 12 Spending appropriations bills from Pelosi's FY2009 Budget.

He then passed " Stimulus " ( a pay off to the Unions ) and then ran 3 Consecutive TRILLION dollar plus annual deficits.

So he lowered deficit spending from 1.3 Trillion down to 600 Billion for the years following ?

Big damn deal , it still equates to 6 trillion added to our debt in 5 years.

What are you trying to prove ?
 
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