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Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit

Let's see, GOP's last few candidates... Romney, McCain, Dole, and Bush. 3 out of 4 lost. Bush had two close elections. All four are moderates, no where near conservative. Last conservative, Reagan. Won in two tremendous landslides. In two elections, he won something like 97 out of 100 states.
Yeah, why nominate a conservative like Cruz? We're doing so well with the moderates!
 
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has won the latest presidential straw poll at a conservative summit in Louisiana.

Cruz took 30 percent of the vote at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans. He edged out conservative speaker and author Ben Carson.

Read more here: Cruz wins presidential straw poll at GOP summit




What doe's anyone think about this?

My thoughts are that neither Cruz, nor Carson will ever see the inside of the White House except as guests.

I doubt that either one of them will be the GOP's candidate.

Straw polls are basically meaningless. But if you are interested in polls for the GOP nomination, here you go:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

I would be paying attention to the polls above more so than any straw poll. Cruz is running an average of 6 points.
 
I don't have a crystal ball, but it's obvious to me that the Democratic party is likely to control the White House for a long time.

I think you are right - with or without a crystal ball. What they really need to overcome is this persistent anti-Obama rhetoric. The middle of the road folks get it -the RIght hates Obama. We have had years of hearing that they hate Obama, Obamacare, etc.

Those all important middle of the road voters need to hear what the candidate is for - specifically - and what his plans are. Being against Obama is not a plan. Being against Obamacare is not a plan. I think until well thought out plans that have the possibility of passing (means working together) are put out there - the Dems will remain in office.

But of course, nothing will actually change in American politics until Big Business/Unions etc are out of the back pocket of politicians.
 
i think you are right - with or without a crystal ball. What they really need to overcome is this persistent anti-obama rhetoric. The middle of the road folks get it -the right hates obama. We have had years of hearing that they hate obama, obamacare, etc.

Those all important middle of the road voters need to hear what the candidate is for - specifically - and what his plans are. Being against obama is not a plan. Being against obamacare is not a plan. I think until well thought out plans that have the possibility of passing (means working together) are put out there - the dems will remain in office.

but of course, nothing will actually change in american politics until big business/unions etc are out of the back pocket of politicians.




i agree.

When do you think that's going to happen?
 
That's all you got, Cruz is a dumbo? You are discredited, you did it to yourself. That's an asinine statement to make since he's nowhere close to stupid. You may not like him, but he isn't stupid. And he'd kick Hillary's ass in any debate.

Well, it may be an asinine statement but it's true. he's a dumbass. a dumbo. He has no leadership skills, no intellectual capacity for governance and he's toxic. He did an idiotic shutdown of the govt and now he denies he played a part in it. It's like he doesn't know that video recordings exist. He has no balls either to at least stand up for what turned out to be an unpopular move.
 
I don't have a crystal ball, but it's obvious to me that the Democratic party is likely to control the White House for a long time.

The electoral math favors the Democrats big time today whereas in the 80's it favored the Republicans. So choosing the right candidate to run in 2016 is more important than ever. I do not think Cruz is that candidate. His favorable/unfavorable ratings is at 23% favorable, 31% unfavorable. With 46% of the electorate undecided Cruz could turn this around. But compare Cruz to Hillary in the favorable/unfavorable 49% ratings: 49% favorable, 45% unfavorable. But unlike Cruz, she has no wiggle room for improvement.

But back to the electoral math, Cruz is from Texas, a solid Republican state which almost any GOP candidate is going to carry. Now Jeb Bush should be able to deliver Florida, a must win swing state for any Republican to have a chance of winning in 2016. I do not think Curz could appeal to enough independents to do that in Florida. Another thing to remember, due to the large Democratic Party base, any Republican candidate must win approximately 55% of the independent vote. I do not see Cruz doing this either.
 
Cruz for president and Rand for vice president would be a pretty good ticket.

That would be fine with me. Any room for Palin in that for a three way ticket? Or perhaps just Paul & Palin. The grade school kids would love that - "vote for PP".:mrgreen:
 
Who does the GOP have that can beat Hillary?

It can be done, Hillary's approval rating among independent voters is on the minus side, 44% to 48%. So we are back to the right candidate, it took an Eisenhower to put a stop to 5 consecutive presidential wins by the Democrats back in 1952. It will probably take someone of that stature to off set the Democratic electoral math advantage in 2016. Who that might be is anyone's guess.
 
The electoral math favors the Democrats big time today whereas in the 80's it favored the Republicans. So choosing the right candidate to run in 2016 is more important than ever. I do not think Cruz is that candidate. His favorable/unfavorable ratings is at 23% favorable, 31% unfavorable. With 46% of the electorate undecided Cruz could turn this around. But compare Cruz to Hillary in the favorable/unfavorable 49% ratings: 49% favorable, 45% unfavorable. But unlike Cruz, she has no wiggle room for improvement.

But back to the electoral math, Cruz is from Texas, a solid Republican state which almost any GOP candidate is going to carry.
Now Jeb Bush should be able to deliver Florida, a must win swing state for any Republican to have a chance of winning in 2016.
I do not think Curz could appeal to enough independents to do that in Florida. Another thing to remember, due to the large Democratic Party base, any Republican candidate must win approximately 55% of the independent vote. I do not see Cruz doing this either.




I will be surprised if the GOP is able to win in Florida in 2016, I believe that the demographics there don't favor the GOP.
 
I think you are right - with or without a crystal ball. What they really need to overcome is this persistent anti-Obama rhetoric. The middle of the road folks get it -the RIght hates Obama. We have had years of hearing that they hate Obama, Obamacare, etc.

Those all important middle of the road voters need to hear what the candidate is for - specifically - and what his plans are. Being against Obama is not a plan. Being against Obamacare is not a plan. I think until well thought out plans that have the possibility of passing (means working together) are put out there - the Dems will remain in office.

But of course, nothing will actually change in American politics until Big Business/Unions etc are out of the back pocket of politicians.
The Dems... the party of Big Unions?
 
It can be done, Hillary's approval rating among independent voters is on the minus side, 44% to 48%. So we are back to the right candidate, it took an Eisenhower to put a stop to 5 consecutive presidential wins by the Democrats back in 1952. It will probably take someone of that stature to off set the Democratic electoral math advantage in 2016. Who that might be is anyone's guess.

I suspect you are correct - I really do not think it will be Hillary. Who it will be is anybody's guess right now. But I expect that a variety of factors - demographic, personal and political will all combine to take her out of the race.

On the GOP side I fully expect a hard right candidate to win - maybe Paul - and we see a repeat of the Goldwater debacle of 64 up and down the ticket from coast to coast with a few obvious exceptions in between where even far right wing crazy will still sell.
 
I will be surprised if the GOP is able to win in Florida in 2016, I believe that the demographics there don't favor the GOP.

Romney only lost Florida 50% to 49% in 2012. I think that shows just how close the two parties are there. Jeb Bush is still very popular down there and he most certainly IMO would win Florida. Remember the panhandle region is solid Republican and resembles Georgia more than the other areas of Florida. Then throw in the Cuban vote, it is very possible but again, it will take the right candidate. Here is the latest polls in Florida's Governor's race, Republican Scott has taken the lead, look at the Cuban break down.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #21291

But having said this about Florida, that state will do the Republicans any good unless they can also win in Ohio and Virginia plus one more, probably New Hampshire. If the Republican candidate can win every state Romney did plus Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire, that puts a Republican in the White House in 2016. 270-268 electoral votes. Romney lost Ohio and Virginia by 4% points and New Hampshire by 6 points.

Doable, but it will take the right candidate. But I am a numbers guy and not necessary an ideological guy when it comes to figuring out which state whomever could carry. I doubt Cruz could take any of the 4 states I mentioned.
 
I suspect you are correct - I really do not think it will be Hillary. Who it will be is anybody's guess right now. But I expect that a variety of factors - demographic, personal and political will all combine to take her out of the race.

On the GOP side I fully expect a hard right candidate to win - maybe Paul - and we see a repeat of the Goldwater debacle of 64 up and down the ticket from coast to coast with a few obvious exceptions in between where even far right wing crazy will still sell.

Paul is an interesting possibility, his overall favor/unfavorable rating is 32-34 which equates roughly to Hillary's. Among independents it is 35% favorable 30% unfavorable, better than Hillary's among this group. I can't explain that. Perhaps Paul just doesn't have the baggage Hillary does. But like you, I expect someone else than Hillary to run in 2016 on the Democratic side. But in a head to head match up with Hillary, Paul loses 51-42, but it is way to early to put much stock it that. Also like you, I do not believe Paul can overcome the electoral math advantage the Democrats have.
 
It can be done, Hillary's approval rating among independent voters is on the minus side, 44% to 48%. So we are back to the right candidate, it took an Eisenhower to put a stop to 5 consecutive presidential wins by the Democrats back in 1952. It will probably take someone of that stature to off set the Democratic electoral math advantage in 2016. Who that might be is anyone's guess.

You're setting the bar really high, Pero.
The GOP has no candidate of such stature.
Then again, neither do the Dems.
 
I think mainstream America pretty much categorizes Cruz in the Palin, Bauchmann, Perry, Santorum and Cain, etc., department.

I wouldn't take this poll seriously. I assure you that America, generally speaking, doesn't take Cruz seriously.
 
Paul is an interesting possibility, his overall favor/unfavorable rating is 32-34 which equates roughly to Hillary's. Among independents it is 35% favorable 30% unfavorable, better than Hillary's among this group. I can't explain that. Perhaps Paul just doesn't have the baggage Hillary does. But like you, I expect someone else than Hillary to run in 2016 on the Democratic side. But in a head to head match up with Hillary, Paul loses 51-42, but it is way to early to put much stock it that. Also like you, I do not believe Paul can overcome the electoral math advantage the Democrats have.
Paul's libertarian beliefs will sink him, of particular note, he is against the public accommodations portion of the CRA of 1964. And there is video of him saying so.
 
You're setting the bar really high, Pero.
The GOP has no candidate of such stature.
Then again, neither do the Dems.

I do not think the Democrats really need a candidate of the stature of IKE. If you take all the states Obama won by 5 points or more and add them up, that is 272 electoral votes. 2 more than what is needed to win. I call those state Democratic trustworthy states. They do not include Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida. The GOP trustworthy states add up to just 191.
 
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Paul's libertarian beliefs will sink him, of particular note, he is against the public accommodations portion of the CRA of 1964. And there is video of him saying so.

Everything is hypothetical at this time anyway. Paul does seem to connect with the younger voters though.
 
Paul is an interesting possibility, his overall favor/unfavorable rating is 32-34 which equates roughly to Hillary's. Among independents it is 35% favorable 30% unfavorable, better than Hillary's among this group. I can't explain that. Perhaps Paul just doesn't have the baggage Hillary does. But like you, I expect someone else than Hillary to run in 2016 on the Democratic side. But in a head to head match up with Hillary, Paul loses 51-42, but it is way to early to put much stock it that. Also like you, I do not believe Paul can overcome the electoral math advantage the Democrats have.

If Paul gets the nomination he will get completely and utterly crucified by all his libertarianish positions that are on record. Front and center will be the various civil rights laws and he will come out defending the ability to be a bigot - which might fly on a right leaning site like this one with its libertarian crowd but will absolutely get him killed (politically speaking) with the general public. Paul will be the guy who wants to let bigots turn away minorities from their businesses and it will keep him with the independent voter.

Like it or not - Romney had the best shot to overcome the electoral math you pointed out - and even then he lost. So who replaces Romney and is able to get by the far right loons?
 
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