• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter

jmotivator said:
U.S. GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter - WSJ.com

"he U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014, the latest stumble for a recovery that has struggled to find its footing since the recession ended almost five years ago."

The "recovery" is over.
Click to expand...

Subsequent data indicate that the dip was likely temporary and not the end of the recovery. For example, from the April 2014 Beige Book:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report. The expansion was characterized as modest or moderate by the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Chicago reported that economic growth had picked up, and New York and Philadelphia indicated that business activity had rebounded from weather-related slowdowns earlier in the year. The Cleveland and St. Louis Districts both reported a decline in economic activity.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/files/BeigeBook_20140416.pdf
 
donsutherland1 said:
Subsequent data indicate that the dip was likely temporary and not the end of the recovery. For example, from the April 2014 Beige Book:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report. The expansion was characterized as modest or moderate by the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Chicago reported that economic growth had picked up, and New York and Philadelphia indicated that business activity had rebounded from weather-related slowdowns earlier in the year. The Cleveland and St. Louis Districts both reported a decline in economic activity.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/files/BeigeBook_20140416.pdf
Click to expand...

As seen and managed by a quasi-governmental entity. :)
 
WCH said:
As seen and managed by a quasi-governmental entity. :)
Click to expand...

The Fed's Beige Book is one report. Numerous reports including but not limited to durable goods orders, the PMI Manufacturing Index, and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey pointed to a noticeable pickup from Q1.

Also, assuming some degree of pent up demand on account of weather-related issues, a real annualized growth rate of 3% or above looks good for Q2 (first report to be released on July 30). There is some possibility of a figure near 4%. Odds of a figure below 2% are probably fairly low.
 
Last edited:
jmotivator said:
The "recovery" is over.
Click to expand...
Why, because one indicator -- and one that is rather incomplete -- was down a bit?

Businesses seem to think that things are looking up. Stocks went up this morning (DJI up 33 pts right now, SPX up 5), and several other indicators are looking fine.


"A pickup in receipts at retailers, stronger manufacturing and faster job growth indicate the first-quarter setback will prove temporary as pent-up demand is unleashed. Federal Reserve policy makers said at their April meeting that the economy has strengthened after adverse weather took its toll.

" “The next couple of quarters are going to be a lot stronger,” said Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity-market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., said by phone. He helps oversee around $400 billion. “The market ought to be able to read through this and begin to price in better economic growth.”

"Fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market continues to strengthen. Jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 300,000 in the week ended May 24, a Labor Department report showed. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 318,000.

"Separate data will probably show that pending home sales rose 1 percent in April, economists estimated before the report due at 10 a.m. They rose 3.4 percent the prior month."
U.S. Stocks Rise After GDP Data, Tyson Bid for Hillshire - Bloomberg
 
Visbek said:
Why, because one indicator -- and one that is rather incomplete -- was down a bit?

Businesses seem to think that things are looking up. Stocks went up this morning (DJI up 33 pts right now, SPX up 5), and several other indicators are looking fine.
Click to expand...

Stock are a terrible measure of the health of the economy. As a wise man once said "Stock always go up, until they go down."


"A pickup in receipts at retailers, stronger manufacturing and faster job growth indicate the first-quarter setback will prove temporary as pent-up demand is unleashed. Federal Reserve policy makers said at their April meeting that the economy has strengthened after adverse weather took its toll.

" “The next couple of quarters are going to be a lot stronger,” said Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity-market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., said by phone. He helps oversee around $400 billion. “The market ought to be able to read through this and begin to price in better economic growth.”

"Fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market continues to strengthen. Jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 300,000 in the week ended May 24, a Labor Department report showed. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 318,000.

"Separate data will probably show that pending home sales rose 1 percent in April, economists estimated before the report due at 10 a.m. They rose 3.4 percent the prior month."
U.S. Stocks Rise After GDP Data, Tyson Bid for Hillshire - Bloomberg
Click to expand...


I always have to shake my head at the cycle in Economic reporting. In the wake of the 2007 recession the American people wanted to string up all the economists and and market gurus who were bullish leading up to the collapse. Then, at the bottom of the collapse the same people who wanted to string these eternal optimists up by their feet start using their rosey outlook to convince themselves that everything will be all right.

We haven't fixed anything that was wrong with the 2007 economy. In fact, the only improvement over 2007 is that companies are now stockpiling more cash to weather economic lows and this administration is hell bent on taking that stockpile under the pretense of economic equality.
 
and those on the right cheer when the nation's economy appears to have had a hiccup
meanwhile they ignore the consistent growth of the economy under a democratic president
cheering against the economy. betting against the country. today's GOP
 
donsutherland1 said:
Subsequent data indicate that the dip was likely temporary and not the end of the recovery. For example, from the April 2014 Beige Book:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report. The expansion was characterized as modest or moderate by the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Chicago reported that economic growth had picked up, and New York and Philadelphia indicated that business activity had rebounded from weather-related slowdowns earlier in the year. The Cleveland and St. Louis Districts both reported a decline in economic activity.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/files/BeigeBook_20140416.pdf
Click to expand...

They have to say that. Its the Federal Reserve. Gotta keep up the illusion of recovery at all costs. People really do drink the kool-aid. The one redeeming sector for GDP was healthcare.
 
Cheering? How about reiterating the adjunct failure of your beloved dictator and his minions in the media and academia that make crap up as they go and lie routinely?

justabubba said:
and those on the right cheer when the n

ation's economy appears to have had a hiccup
meanwhile they ignore the consistent growth of the economy under a democratic president
cheering against the economy. betting against the country. today's GOP
Click to expand...
 
Visbek said:
Why, because one indicator -- and one that is rather incomplete -- was down a bit?

Businesses seem to think that things are looking up. Stocks went up this morning (DJI up 33 pts right now, SPX up 5), and several other indicators are looking fine.


"A pickup in receipts at retailers, stronger manufacturing and faster job growth indicate the first-quarter setback will prove temporary as pent-up demand is unleashed. Federal Reserve policy makers said at their April meeting that the economy has strengthened after adverse weather took its toll.

" “The next couple of quarters are going to be a lot stronger,” said Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity-market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., said by phone. He helps oversee around $400 billion. “The market ought to be able to read through this and begin to price in better economic growth.”

"Fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market continues to strengthen. Jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 300,000 in the week ended May 24, a Labor Department report showed. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 318,000.

"Separate data will probably show that pending home sales rose 1 percent in April, economists estimated before the report due at 10 a.m. They rose 3.4 percent the prior month."
U.S. Stocks Rise After GDP Data, Tyson Bid for Hillshire - Bloomberg
Click to expand...

We were also told in Q4 2013 that Q1 of 2014 would pick up. So excuse me if I remain the cynical skeptic as these so-called economists predict the highly manipulated and volatile markets.

Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort index collapsed to its lowest level in 6 months as 'Buying Climate' collapsed and economic expectations plunged from 48 to 42.5 (7-month lows). Those earning over $100k are happy and comfort soared but the comfort of those earning under $40k plunged to new cycle lows. Wealth transfer almost complete?

The only housing sales that rose were those valued over 750k. Sales are dropping for the middle class. http://www.realtor.org/sites/defaul.../ehs-05-22/ehs-04-2014-summary-2014-05-22.pdf Check the data. Sales aren't picking up for the 99%.

After the terrible April departure of people from the labor force, it isn't surprising the jobless claims dropped some more. I would hardly call this strengthening since people are dropping out of the workforce and therefore not being included in the calculation for the jobless rate. Any jobs gains are being offset in job quality.

When economists have manipulated data to work with, I can see how everything is "looking up". The new normal, "just have faith", doesn't seem to be working out so well IMO.
 
Last edited:
justabubba said:
and those on the right cheer when the nation's economy appears to have had a hiccup
meanwhile they ignore the consistent growth of the economy under a democratic president
cheering against the economy. betting against the country. today's GOP
Click to expand...

So what in the economy is growing? Show me. Everything I read says people are giving up looking for work in droves. CEO pay has never been higher, yet we are at a stagnant unemployment rate with millions no longer looking for work. How do you spin this as growth?

I'm not blaming Obama for the problem, as this all started years ago. but he isn't helping it any. We never seem to be proactive, but reactive. That is a huge problem because by the time we finally react, most of the damage is done.
 
jmotivator said:
U.S. GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter - WSJ.com

"he U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014, the latest stumble for a recovery that has struggled to find its footing since the recession ended almost five years ago."

The "recovery" is over.
Click to expand...

Wonder how many people bought the Obama line about transforming America and if this is the transformation they voted for? The new liberal normal is the European Normal, high unemployment, high debt, low economic growth, and massive govt. dependence
 
justabubba said:
and those on the right cheer when the nation's economy appears to have had a hiccup
meanwhile they ignore the consistent growth of the economy under a democratic president
cheering against the economy. betting against the country. today's GOP
Click to expand...

its called lack luster growth. the worst growth rate after a recession in modern times.
 
justabubba said:
and those on the right cheer when the nation's economy appears to have had a hiccup
meanwhile they ignore the consistent growth of the economy under a democratic president
cheering against the economy. betting against the country. today's GOP
Click to expand...

So tell me when you voted for Obama in 2008 based upon his desire to transform America, is this the transformation that you voted for? Do you realize that the total debt now exceeds 100% of GDP, that there still are fewer people working today than when the recession began, that the economic growth is below the average of the Bush term, and that the unemployment/under employment is worse than anything Bush had?

It is great to be loyal but loyalty has to have its limits. When will we ever reach that limit with Obama supporters?
 
BTW, less then half of America receives significant snowfall.
 
Last edited:
Visbek said:
Why, because one indicator -- and one that is rather incomplete -- was down a bit?

Businesses seem to think that things are looking up. Stocks went up this morning (DJI up 33 pts right now, SPX up 5), and several other indicators are looking fine.


"A pickup in receipts at retailers, stronger manufacturing and faster job growth indicate the first-quarter setback will prove temporary as pent-up demand is unleashed. Federal Reserve policy makers said at their April meeting that the economy has strengthened after adverse weather took its toll.

" “The next couple of quarters are going to be a lot stronger,” said Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity-market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., said by phone. He helps oversee around $400 billion. “The market ought to be able to read through this and begin to price in better economic growth.”

"Fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market continues to strengthen. Jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 300,000 in the week ended May 24, a Labor Department report showed. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 318,000.

"Separate data will probably show that pending home sales rose 1 percent in April, economists estimated before the report due at 10 a.m. They rose 3.4 percent the prior month."
U.S. Stocks Rise After GDP Data, Tyson Bid for Hillshire - Bloomberg
Click to expand...

LOL !

Did you just equate the equities markets to our economy ?

How desperate are you people ? Wait, dont answer that.
 
Fenton said:
LOL !

Did you just equate the equities markets to our economy ?

How desperate are you people ? Wait, dont answer that.
Click to expand...

Exactly. July 2007 set a record in the stock market... how healthy was the economy?

Investment in the stock market is driven by the absence of a return on bonds. Any port in a storm.
 
WCH said:
As seen and managed by a quasi-governmental entity. :)
Click to expand...

You do realize that GDP numbers come from a government agency too?
 
justabubba said:
and those on the right cheer when the nation's economy appears to have had a hiccup
meanwhile they ignore the consistent growth of the economy under a democratic president
cheering against the economy. betting against the country. today's GOP
Click to expand...

Uhm, what persistent growth ?

GDP would indicate "persistent growth".
 
jmotivator said:
U.S. GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter - WSJ.com

"he U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014, the latest stumble for a recovery that has struggled to find its footing since the recession ended almost five years ago."

The "recovery" is over.
Click to expand...

I could be wrong, but I believe the first quarter results for the US were a GDP of 0.1%, not 1% - a significant difference, and basically flat. It was anticipated that the GDP would be in the 1.5% range for the quarter so the results are terrible.

That said, weather was indeed a major factor and drag on consumer activity and the shipment of goods. Canada had similar issues, yet our GDP was significantly better, in the 1.2% range.

I'm curious, although this may not be a factor at all, whether or not the onset of the ACA, the mandate of individual purchase of health insurance coverage and the loss of coverage for many as well as the increased cost in coverage due to mandated minimum coverages for others has had any impact on consumer confidence and/or activity due to a reduction in disposable income.
 
CanadaJohn said:
I could be wrong, but I believe the first quarter results for the US were a GDP of 0.1%, not 1% - a significant difference, and basically flat. It was anticipated that the GDP would be in the 1.5% range for the quarter so the results are terrible.
Click to expand...

The +0.1% was the preliminary number. The final number is -1.0%.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom