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Polls are just a snapshot in time and are subject to speculation due to many factors, such as which questions are asked, how they are asked, which questions are not asked, who they are asking, blah blah blah... and here is an article that shows that opposition to SSM is understated in the polls Study: Opposition to same-sex marriage may be understated in public opinion polls | Pew Research Center
No disagreement that desirability bias exists to some extend, that's why knowledgeable proponents of SSCM (You left out the "Civil" initial, that having to do with secular law) will target 55-60% positive polling prior to attempting a ballot initiative. But let's talk about polling that does count, the ballots cast regarding the issue...
In the first half of the 2000's decade 30+ states put ban on SSCM (and many on even the possibility of Civil Unions) on the general ballot and won with margins of victory (IIRC) that 23-76%.
In 2008/2009 California and Maine placed Proposition 8 and Question 1 on the general election ballot (respectively) and both measures passed, but barely squeaked by. A shift of only 2.5% would have changed the outcome of the results. A shift from the bottom end of the earlier results of 25% (-23 - 2.5 = |25.5| ) and from the high end 78% (-76 - 2.5 = |78.5| )
In 2012 four states (Washington, Maryland, Minnesota, and Maine) had SSCM related initiatives on the ballot and in all 4 states proponents of equality won by (IIRC) about 2-3% documenting a further shift over the 2008/2009 results (from narrowly losing to narrowly winning). Disclaimer: of those 4 states 3 initiatives were to approve of SSCM and won, one was to ban SSCM and lost (hence SSCM proponents winning).
In 2008/2009 California and Maine placed Proposition 8 and Question 1 on the general election ballot (respectively) and both measures passed, but barely squeaked by. A shift of only 2.5% would have changed the outcome of the results. A shift from the bottom end of the earlier results of 25% (-23 - 2.5 = |25.5| ) and from the high end 78% (-76 - 2.5 = |78.5| )
In 2012 four states (Washington, Maryland, Minnesota, and Maine) had SSCM related initiatives on the ballot and in all 4 states proponents of equality won by (IIRC) about 2-3% documenting a further shift over the 2008/2009 results (from narrowly losing to narrowly winning). Disclaimer: of those 4 states 3 initiatives were to approve of SSCM and won, one was to ban SSCM and lost (hence SSCM proponents winning).
As a matter of fact there was quite a divide on the community supporting SSCM in regards to the passage of Prop 8. One faction wanted to wait and implement a grass roots campaign and then place a new initiative on the ballot in either 2010 or 2012. Polling has shown, even with factoring in the "desirability bias" that California's SSCM ban would have been repealed at the ballot box in 2012. However the other faction didn't want to wait, they took the court challenge route to Prop 8 resulting in a court victory where Prop 8 was overturned and after reaching the SCOTUS that decision was allowed to stand. Personally I think the decision to go the court route, while a tactical victory (Prop 8 was overturned), I think it was a strategic mistake. The political capital of having one of the most populace states overturn their own ban (like Maine did) would have been a HUGH advantage as SSCM is addressed across the nation.
The writing is on the wall, even if one chooses to dismiss "Public Opinion Polls" on the matter, at the ballot box (the one poll that really counts) the fact that public opinion has shifted towards Marriage Equality is undeniable.
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