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Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:76]

Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

ReformCollege said:
Faulty link, at least on my end.
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Sorry, it must be at your end as it works if I click on it, so does the first one that was posted. Try later...

From the title page:

A Minimal Model for Human and NatureInteraction
Safa Motesharrei
School of Public Policy
University of Maryland
Jorge Rivas
Department of Political Science
University of Minnesota
Eugenia Kalnay
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Maryland
November 13, 2012
Abstract
There are widespread concerns that current trends in population and resource-use areunsustainable, but the possibilities of an overshoot and collapse remain unclear and contro-versial. Collapses have occurred frequently in the past five thousand years, and are oftenfollowed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Many different nat-ural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but a generalexplanation remains elusive. Two important features seem to appear across societies thathave collapsed: (1) Ecological Strain and (2) Economic Stratification.
In this paper, the structure of a new model and several simulated scenarios that offersignificant implications are explained. The model has just four equations that describe theevolution of the populations of Elites and Commoners, Nature, and accumulated Wealth.Mechanisms leading to collapse are discussed and the measure “Carrying Capacity” is devel-oped and defined. The model suggests that the estimation of Carrying Capacity is a practicalmeans for early detection of a collapse. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach asteady state at the maximum carrying capacity, if the rate of depletion of nature is reducedto a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed equitably.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

sawdust said:
Your link doesn't work however if the article from the guardian is correct in this assessment"

And if this quotation is correct,

Then social sciences have indeed payed a role in the study.
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The study was NOT done at NASA and it was done by a mathematician. It is based on some mathematical models with various scenarios.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

prometeus said:
The study was NOT done at NASA and it was done by a mathematician. It is based on some mathematical models with various scenarios.
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I don't like nit pickers and please excuse me if I come across as one. I haven't read the study, don't intend to, your link doesn't work and all I have to go by is the article that was posted on the first page of this thread. This is the title of the article.
Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?
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We can both read. Granted it was done by a mathematician and funded by NASA.

When Obama took office he directed NASA to scale back it's efforts in space exploration and direct itself toward social goals. The director said his mandate from Obama was to get kids enthused about science and math, engage in Muslim outreach pointing out important contributions they've made to science and expand our international relationships. Now, I have no clue what the latter two have to do with space exploration but I have no clue about most of Obama's ideas.
"Bolden: I am here in the region - its sort of the first anniversary of President Barack Obama's visit to Cairo - and his speech there when he gave what has now become known as Obama's "Cairo Initiative" where he announced that he wanted this to become a new beginning of the relationship between the United States and the Muslim world. When I became the NASA Administrator - before I became the NASA Administrator - he charged me with three things: One was that he wanted me to re-inspire children to want to get into science and math, that he wanted me to expand our international relationships, and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with predominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science, math, and engineering."
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Charlie Bolden: Stealth Middle East Diplomat? - NASA Watch

Putting everything in context, Obama uses most of the government to promote his social goals so it's pretty easy to see why Director Bolden would fund a study done by a mathematician who used social scientists to tell us that industrial society was going to send us to hell in a hand basket. It's just more incongruence from this administration.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

DVSentinel said:
A very large number of them are the ones who voted in the socialist minded liberals that are responsible for the economic problems in the US. It is the Liberal agenda that has been forcing jobs overseas and making American made products unaffordable. I think it is great when so many liberals and union workers are left unemployed by outsourcing that their own policies brought about.

Also, I believe that very few would actually die. Survival instinct is a very strong motivator. After a few do die from their laziness, the rest will get the message and we will see them start taking jobs that they have scorned because it is easier and more comfortable to live off the rest of us.

Finally, it is morally reprehensible to enslave others. By saying that non-producers have the "right" to what the producers make and earn is making those producers slaves. When you punish achievement and reward laziness and non-achievement, nothing good at all can come of it. It is not sociopathic to place the wellbeing of the majority ahead of the wellbeing of the few, especially when the few are quite often in their predicament due to their own choices and their own laziness. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.
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The financial crisis that plagues us today started in September 2008. Granted, President Obama hasn't fixed the problem, but it did not start on his watch. And from a solid starting point, President George W. Bush was a victim of a previous Republican administration's policy: President Reagan and deregulation. Sure, President Clinton's policies contributed greatly to the overall problem as well.

So, as history shows, this *really* is not a partisan issue, similar to 9/11, so don't make it one.

And really, it is the year 2014, one would think that the mentality of 'sink or swim' would have stayed with the early 20th century and below given that various U.S. policies that have since become cornerstones of our nation are there to protect the disadvantaged. Why? For one, because it is the humane thing to do, you know, since we're dealing with fellow human beings.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Jango said:
The financial crisis that plagues us today started in September 2008. Granted, President Obama hasn't fixed the problem, but it did not start on his watch. And from a solid starting point, President George W. Bush was a victim of a previous Republican administration's policy: President Reagan and deregulation. Sure, President Clinton's policies contributed greatly to the overall problem as well.

So, as history shows, this *really* is not a partisan issue, similar to 9/11, so don't make it one.

And really, it is the year 2014, one would think that the mentality of 'sink or swim' would have stayed with the early 20th century and below given that various U.S. policies that have since become cornerstones of our nation are there to protect the disadvantaged. Why? For one, because it is the humane thing to do, you know, since we're dealing with fellow human beings.
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Right. Reagan passed those laws himself. Congress had nothing to do with it? Same with Bush? And yes, I can blame the idiot liberals. Republicans had a total of 4 years in the last 50+ that they had control of the house, the senate and the presidency. Since Dems had total or partial control for the other 46+ years, logically, they are the culprits. Further, many of policies that have driven the oppression of the economy are things that are cornerstones of their party.

The problem with deregulation is that it was once regulated. After deregulation, you have to have capitol input in order raise competition.

Humane for whom? And how humane is creating dependence? Humane for everyone else when trying to care for those lazy and worthless causes total economic collapse? Welfare is not humane to the recipients or to the country as a whole.

The choice of welfare over work is often a rational decision based on economic incentives. Empirical studies confirm that welfare is a disincentive for work. For example, an analysis of interstate variation in labor force participation by economists Richard Vedder, Lowell Gallaway, and Robert Lawson found that such participation declined as welfare benefits increased.33 Similarly, Robert Moffitt of Brown University found that the work effort of welfare recipients was reduced by as much as 30 percent. - See more at: TANF and Federal Welfare | Downsizing the Federal Government

A Maryland National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) report concluded that "the ready access to a lifetime of welfare and free social service programs is a major contributory factor to the crime problems we face today."39 The NAACP's conclusion is confirmed by additional academic research. For example, research by M. Anne Hill and June O'Neill shows that a 50-percent increase in welfare and food stamp benefits led to a 117-percent increase in the crime rate among young black men.40 - See more at: TANF and Federal Welfare | Downsizing the Federal Government

Funny, the NAACP still endorses welfare friendly candidates even though they complain that more black men go to prison than to college.

How humane was it for the victims of all those crimes? How humane is it for all those people who suffer the depredations brought on by welfare?
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Fenton said:
Wow the left will Politicize just about everything.

Nothings off limits is it ?

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is now doing studies on " equality " or lack there of ?

LOL !!
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The Goggles of Truth appear to cause reading comprehension, pray tell - How does the title The National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) equal National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)??
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Somerville said:
The Goggles of Truth appear to cause reading comprehension, pray tell - How does the title The National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) equal National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)??
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Who funded this ridiculous politically driven study ?
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Hmmmm

I see the earlier claim is now being ignored

Fenton said:
Who funded this ridiculous politically driven study ?
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Why are you making the assumption that it is "politically driven"? Because you disagree with the results found? Have you bothered to read it?

The center is funded through the National Science Foundation.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Somerville;106 3054497 said:
Hmmmm

I see the earlier claim is now being ignored



Why are you making the assumption that it is "politically driven"? Because you disagree with the results found? Have you bothered to read it?

The center is funded through the National Science Foundation.
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Your kidding me right ??

I've been working with NASA and their Contractors for nearly 2 Decades.

And I live about 5 minutes from Johnson Space Center.

Since 2008 Obama has been cutting funding to NASA and its Contractors, more specifically for their next manned space flight operations.

Constellation was suppose to folow the shuttle with the Contract extending out to Companies like Jacobs, Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

Those Companies have been laying off at a rate I havnt seen in 20 years.


Now, Obama wants to corrupt NASA like hes corrupted so many other Federal Agencies.

Having their funding go out to "legitimize" his twisted ideological views while thousands of Engineers and support staff head straight for the Unemployment lines.

Of course its politically driven. Its no Coincidence thaf the report that focuses on " Inequality" is being released in concert with his rhetoric.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

DVSentinel said:
[/B]

Or we need to be finding a way off this rock. BTW, isn't that what NASA is supposed to be studying?
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The right pretty consistently considers space unworthy of investment.

We're on course to be a civilization that uses up all its cheap energy and ends up "stranded" on the homeworld.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Somerville said:
Why are you making the assumption that it is "politically driven"? Because you disagree with the results found? Have you bothered to read it? The center is funded through the National Science Foundation.
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Every government agency eventually becomes politically driven, as we have seen with the State Department, the DOJ, and the IRS. Same with NASA, which has now become just a massive and expensive bureaucracy.NASA Chief: Next Frontier Better Relations With Muslim World | Fox News
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Fenton said:
Your kidding me right ??

I've been working with NASA and their Contractors for nearly 2 Decades.

And I live about 5 minutes from Johnson Space Center.

Since 2008 Obama has been cutting funding to NASA and its Contractors, more specifically for their next manned space flight operations.

Constellation was suppose to folow the shuttle with the Contract extending out to Companies like Jacobs, Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

Those Companies have been laying off at a rate I havnt seen in 20 years.


Now, Obama wants to corrupt NASA like hes corrupted so many other Federal Agencies.

Having their funding go out to "legitimize" his twisted ideological views while thousands of Engineers and support staff head straight for the Unemployment lines.

Of course its politically driven. Its no Coincidence thaf the report that focuses on " Inequality" is being released in concert with his rhetoric.
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WHAT am I kidding about? I have provided links showing that this study does not appear to have been funded by NASA, no matter what the headlines show; but for some strange reason this point is being pounded into the ground even though it is an imaginary "point".

Get your years straight, Obama became President in Jan 2009, so he had nothing to do with 2008 funding and little to do with 2009 funding for NASA.

I for some reason seem to remember lots of complaints about Obama throwing money around like confetti and now I'm reading that he's been cutting funding for those government agencies. Agencies which, if I remember correctly, can't create jobs because "government can't create jobs"

Hatred causes some to erase the memories of words and actions which no longer agree with today's messages - words and actions they once supported.
Proposed NASA Budget Cuts Spark Bitter Debate in Congress | Space.com July 18, 2013
A NASA authorization bill drafted by the Republican majority of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology proposes to slash NASA's funding to $16.6 billion for 2014 — $300 million less than it received in 2013, and $1.1 billion less than President Obama requested for NASA in 2014. The bill — which authorizes spending levels but provides no actual funding — would roll back NASA’s funding to a level $1.2 billion less than its 2012 budget.

Democratic members of the committee spoke strongly against the proposed cuts, which Republicans say are necessary under the federal sequestration cuts prompted by the Budget Control Act of 2011.

"It is a bad, bad bill," said Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), the committee's ranking Democrat. "The bill were considering today will hurt the NASA centers and work force, cripple the agency's ability to carry out all the responsibilities the nation has given it, and put NASA on a path of mediocrity. It gives me no pleasure to say this is a terribly flawed piece of legislation."

Republicans insisted the bill provided enough money for NASA to achieve its main objectives, and said it was realistic, given the tough fiscal circumstances
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Now please show the reading audience how a REPUBLICAN-authored bill that cuts $1.1 billion from the amount requested by PRESIDENT OBAMA for NASA is an example of Obama "cutting funding"
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Soupnazi630 said:
Been done.

Primitive peoples lived within the means of their environment and lived in misery.
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Not really true.

Lives were short, but that was mainly parasites and disease.

On average, primitive people worked about 20 hours a week.

Original affluent society - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Just wiki, but i've read a lot on the subject over the years.

People in resource rich areas work less, those in less rich ateas more, but the whole "nasty, brutish and short" was salve for colonialists consciences. Not objective 7ruth.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

What if...? said:
We'll see.Profit motive may work, may not.
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There are not many times you can point to where it didn't work, or where people tried to make it work. Money is the greatest motivator.

Bet money that it will be done in a way that makes only a few rich.
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And that is a bad thing? How many people have become rich working for the government, apart from corruption? Private enterprise keeps tax dollars safe, unless crony capitalism is involved.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

It is really astounding that the best counter arguments are really nothing more than ignorant partisan talking points or outright fabrications.
Why can't anyone offer a criticism or counterarguments based on the merits or lack of, of the study or the opposite, the merits of overconsumption and large economic inequality? After all 'let them eat cake' has world so well in the past.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

DVSentinel said:
Really? So we don't have an International Space Station? NASA has not in the past launched maned space flights? We didn't travel to the moon? For there being no way off this rock, we seem to have had quite a few who left it for a short time.
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Water and gravity on the moon.

Pretty clear thats our stepping stone.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Soupnazi630 said:
Ok I should have been more specific.

There is no permanent way off of this rock.

No technology can get us to another world to live on which was the point ofthe discussion. We are centuries if not millenis away from such technological ability.

Going into orbit is meaningless to this end
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Do you assume we need an earthlike planet to move out of the gravity well?

Energy is ridiculously abundant in space, and the moon has water (oxygen/fuel) and gravity (to slow bone loss)

And 100,000 years of raw materials at projected growth rates in the asteroid belt.

Doesn't seem "impossible" to me.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Napoleon said:
The moon is a very useful thing. It's gravitation force stabilizes the Earth's orbit around the sun, gives us oceanic tides, and serves as a middleman between us and some potentially dangerous comets and asteroids. People should think about that before reducing its mass or otherwise ripping chunks out of it to harvest materials. Personally, I don't think we should be playing around with the moons in our solar system unless you're talking about something like harvesting methane from Titan.
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You realize that the level of exploitation would have to be on a nearly miraculous level to have an actual substantive impact on the mass of a celestial body like the moon right? This isn't really a serious concern.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

I finally had a chance to read the 2012 version of the report. Several quick things:

1. I'm not sure where the article cited at the beginning of the thread reaches the idea that a civilizational collapse could occur "in coming decades." The report provides no such specificity.
2. The study examines a number of scenarios that concern an egalitarian society, equitable society (with workers/non-workers), and an unequal society (elites and commoners) at different levels of depletion and wealth.
3. Almost all of the outcomes, particularly those in unequal societies, eventually lead to some kind of collapse according to the mathematical model that is utilized. Reduced birth rates and depletion rates can promote equilibrium in unequal societies according to the model.
4. The study suggests that wealth stratification temporarily buffers the elites from an unfolding crisis, hence even as commoners begin 'dying out,' the elites continue a "business as usual" approach. The authors suggest that this dynamic might explain why the elites were seemingly oblivious to the unfolding catastrophes that culiminated in the collapse of the Roman Empire and Mayan case.

Several points and caveats are relevant:

1. The study cites past literature that finds resource depletion (Type I) and/or extreme wealth inequality (Type II) were present in the numerous cases where societies had collapsed. Hence, it breaks no new ground in tying ecological stress or wealth stratification to societal collapse.
2. The study assumes that elites "prey" on the production of commoners. This idea would assume that whatever value is added from management e.g., efficiencies in organizing production, is exceeded by the additional consumption of the elites. If the gap is smaller, then the overall depletion rate variable used in the model would also be smaller, and any societal collapse would take longer to occur or perhaps even be avoided.
3. The study's model does not distinguish between nonrenewable resources, renewable resources, and flows (wind, solar, etc.). Hence, the depletion variable is coarse. Future versions of the model will attempt to do so and that could have a significant impact on the outcomes.
4. The study notes that technological change can increase efficiency of resource use, but also raise per capita resource consumption. Currently, the study treated the relationship as a wash, but notes that rates could be adjusted in either direction in the future in a subsequent version of the model. Any adjustments will impact the depletion rate and, therefore, have a potentially large impact on the outcomes.

Finally, my guess concerning the cited article's timeline: The article probably took the unequal society/full collapse scenario. started the clock around 1750-1800 (around the start of the industrial revolution). Using that scenario, resource depletion would exceed regeneration and fall below the carrying capacity in the 1950-2050 timeframe. Once that happened, wealth would begin to decline. Afterward (perhaps a century later according to the model), the population of commoners would decline leading to faster declines in wealth. Perhaps 50 years later, the population of elites would decline and perhaps a century later the societal collapse would be complete (circa 2250-2300).

IMO, the article's interpretation detracts from the more serious work of the study by embracing one scenario among many when there is uncertainty concerning some of the inputs to the model. The study's conclusion that most scenarios would inevitably lead to collapse is not the same thing as forecasting the imminent start of a collapse scenario, much less a total collapse one.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Somerville said:
how do we humans " reduce economic inequality" and also find a way " to dramatically reduce resource consumption "??
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I believe the best way to reduce economic inequality and resource consumption is through land dues (land value 'tax') and a citizens dividend. The LVT ensures land is allocated more fairly (I believe site privatization to be the root of all poverty). A citizens dividend ensures the wealth of the Commons is distributed to all citizens, not just a privileged few.

Citizen's dividend - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Land value tax - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to take the necessary steps towards a more sustainable world. The elites would prefer to drive this world into the ground before they let that happen.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

DVSentinel said:
[/B]

Or we need to be finding a way off this rock. BTW, isn't that what NASA is supposed to be studying?
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Well let's see, NASA is in charge of studying the planets... what is Earth again? Are you saying they should be looking for life on other planets, but study on the sustainability of life on our own?
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

DVSentinel said:
Oops. Hate when that happens. Let them reap what the have sown. Die, if that is all they earn for themselves.
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Ah, the old "they are poor because it was their choice" argument. Sorry, it is not that simplistic.
 
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