Same.. (choppin)..
Here are the countries in Europe that get 50% or more of their energy from Russia: Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Slovenia.. those right on the cusp of 50%... Austria and Poland. Then comes Germany, Italy, Romania, and France. Those outside of the European Commission.. also include Turkey at 64%.
So I don't know how anyone, including a smart person like you, thinks that you can find gas and crude that easily from places like Turkey or even Kazakstan. Building a new pipeline takes years. But problem is Kazakstan is part of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia which is morphing into Eurasian Union come 2015. Also to get gas and crude from Kazakhstan require building a line across the Caspian Sea or running it through Iran. Sending LNG from US to Europe wouldn't be viable until 2016 at the earliest.
Again the Ruble isn't a big deal. Ruble collapsed by 70% in 6 months in 1998 and Russia survived. They'll revalue it and that'll be all. No different then what Greece and Cyprus should have done if they left the EU.
10% of Russia GDP is 200 billion. But it's not in Euros but dollars. Russia and China already agreed to increasing trade between each other by $100 billion (in 2012 it was $88 billion) by 2020 on top of the new oil deals they signed in Oct 2013 and part of the that agreement includes $20 billion investment by China into to Russia's infrastructure. So it's not gonna be a huge loss.. maybe $100b which is okay in the grand scheme of things.
EU will be hurt far worse in the short term because while they have "stock pile" of NG, it's a short supply. Russia and Putin have been playing Chess and the West has been playing checkers. Now if it lasts a while.. it's up in the air who gets hurt.
Ok.
I shall reiterate. I am not saying that a trade war with Russia will leave the EU scat free, that's not what I am saying. But the damage done will collapse Russia faster than the EU.
Also, Poland gets around 70% of its gas from Russia and all of western europe past Germany have virtually 0 imports from Russia in terms of energy resources.
The only major EU economy to be influenced by Russia is Germany with around 30-35%.
You think that devaluating your currency is that easy?
Look, the russian ruble today is lower than it's been in over 10 years. If Russia devalues it's currency to 1998/1999 levels, the inflation will kill it. High inflation and a low value currency means more expensive imports and less valuable exports. It's why China is the manufacturer of the world, it's devaluating it's currency to artificially keep costs low and so, the exports from China are cheap. That makes it have it's competitive edge. But Russia doesn't want and can't become the second world manufacturer of mass produced bad quality goods. That spot is already taken and it's costing China dearly in terms of health and human capital... and China has people to spare (cynical but true), Russia doesn't.
If Putin devalues the currency + a trade war with the EU = bye bye Russian economy. You may think that because Russia has natural resources and a pipeline to the EU, that said thing makes it the boss. But it doesn't. The guy with the money is the boss.
To give an analogy. It's not the guy who carries the bricks who is in charge, it's the guy who is paying him to carry them to build his house that is in charge. The brick carrier needs the money and the guy with the money wants his house... but if the worker stops carrying, sure it'll be a small setback, but there are dozens of more workers willing to get the money and carry the bricks.
This is what is called "soft power" as opposed to conventional military "hard power". Nukes and tanks and infantry won't save your country from collapsing in on itself else the Soviet Union would have won the cold war.
If Russia devalues it's currency, any trade with China will not cover it's expenses.
It's like, if I sell you 1 apple for 100 ruble, and that can make me pay my mortgage... if I devalue the ruble, I'll have to sell you 1 apple for 110 ruble to get the same value. Get it? You think China will happily adjust it's offer for Russian inflation? No. Maybe it can increase the trade with Russia in 5-6 years by 100bil... but that's incremental, baby steps. Not happening.
As for the EU. Ironically, if Germany had continued to push nuclear energy as it did before Fukushima and a bunch of green activists in Germany got scared that somehow a tsunami+earthquake will hit Germany and cause reactors to collapse... so if Germany had continued to push for nuclear energy, by now, it may have been even less dependent on Russian energy and so would countries like Poland who follow Germanys' example.
