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Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

jmotivator

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Obviously "past performance is not indicative of future performance" rules apply here, but it is certainly a bit chilling!

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

The talk is all about a chart that takes the last 19 months of DJIA results and compares them to the 19 months leading up to the great depression:

MW-BU310_scary__20140210132547_MG.jpg

It's a frighteningly tight fit!

So, anyway.. :scared:
 
Obviously "past performance is not indicative of future performance" rules apply here, but it is certainly a bit chilling!

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch



The talk is all about a chart that takes the last 19 months of DJIA results and compares them to the 19 months leading up to the great depression:

View attachment 67161953

It's a frighteningly tight fit!

So, anyway.. :scared:


Yeah, I posted this as a tag on to a thread yesterday....So far I have been called every name in the liberal book, while libs dismiss the chart.
 
That is pretty wild that the data time line is so close with the events.

I read a lot of the nay sayers regarding this chart and really their arguments dont hold water. The ups and downs in the time line match, there are no manipulations of either timeline.

Lets just hope that it does not continue to follow the 1929 chart and breaks with the pattern.
 
A fairly useless chart actually, and a highly misleading one to boot. The y axis is skewed in order to convey the idea that an increase of nearly 100 percent in the year 28-29 is proportional to an increase of less than a third. No surprise though. Every run of success the DJIA has enjoyed in recent memory has been compared to the run-up to the Depression by those who profit off of "scary" and "alternative" analysis.
 
Even if it were accurate, and I'm not totally willing to concede that, though I do think another crash is imminent for a variety of reasons, why would you folks, whose policies have caused the recurrence of the possibility of a crash, keep showing us what a failure opportunity inequality combined with the nearly forced option of having to put both savings and speculation into the market because any other avenue is guaranteed to give almost no returns, what a failure those policies are likely to be exposed as when/if another deeper crash occurs?
 
That is pretty wild that the data time line is so close with the events.

I read a lot of the nay sayers regarding this chart and really their arguments dont hold water. The ups and downs in the time line match, there are no manipulations of either timeline.

Lets just hope that it does not continue to follow the 1929 chart and breaks with the pattern.


The argument tends to revolve around the x axis fit. The problem with that argument is that an x axis fit is only really needed if you are trying to show causation. Straight correlations like this don't need the same x axis.
 
Even if it were accurate, and I'm not totally willing to concede that, though I do think another crash is imminent for a variety of reasons, why would you folks, whose policies have caused the recurrence of the possibility of a crash, keep showing us what a failure opportunity inequality combined with the nearly forced option of having to put both savings and speculation into the market because any other avenue is guaranteed to give almost no returns, what a failure those policies are likely to be exposed as when/if another deeper crash occurs?

Conservative policies caused this?

LOL

You must live in Colorado or Washington.
 
There is some skewing of the 1928 to 1929 data to make it appear as though the rates are comparable. Its my understanding that the Dow doubled in 1928 - 1929, while its only increased by third in the comparing time period.

However, the big difference today is volume due to all the electronic trading. To me that makes such a comparison hard to make.
 
Obviously "past performance is not indicative of future performance" rules apply here, but it is certainly a bit chilling!

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

The talk is all about a chart that takes the last 19 months of DJIA results and compares them to the 19 months leading up to the great depression:

View attachment 67161953

It's a frighteningly tight fit!

So, anyway.. :scared:

4-5 years ago I predicted a double dip and then a depression...

Obamacare, Obama and his hate for capitalism and business (small business), new regulations and a house that pretty much agrees with progressives and a senate dominated by progressives will bring our economy to it's knees.

Our federal government is extremely hostile to business - Obamacare only made that worse. Obamacare forces small businesses to cut hours and have a boat load of part time workers, and even then the successful businesses are being bought out by giants in the industry for their assets or to just squash competition.

Obviously my concerns cannot be summarized in a brief post but we are going down hill.

Obama and his minions are doing everything in their power to bankrupt the United States, kill jobs and get the majority of the populace reliant on government to put food on their table and cloth and educated their children...... They don't need guns or an army to do this - just a pen and the right legislators....

As they say - the fountain pen is mightier than the sword.
 
Obviously "past performance is not indicative of future performance" rules apply here, but it is certainly a bit chilling!

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

The talk is all about a chart that takes the last 19 months of DJIA results and compares them to the 19 months leading up to the great depression:

View attachment 67161953

It's a frighteningly tight fit!

So, anyway.. :scared:

4-5 years ago I predicted a double dip and then a depression...

Obamacare, Obama and his hate for capitalism and business (small business), new regulations and a house that pretty much agrees with progressives and a senate dominated by progressives will bring our economy to it's knees.

Our federal government is extremely hostile to business - Obamacare only made that worse. Obamacare forces small businesses to cut hours and have a boat load of part time workers, and even then the successful businesses are being bought out by giants in the industry for their assets or to just squash competition.

Obviously my concerns cannot be summarized in a brief post but we are going down hill.

Obama and his minions are doing everything in their power to bankrupt the United States, kill jobs and get the majority of the populace reliant on government to put food on their table and cloth and educated their children...... They don't need guns or an army to do this - just a pen and the right legislators....

As they say - the fountain pen is mightier than the sword.
 
The argument tends to revolve around the x axis fit. The problem with that argument is that an x axis fit is only really needed if you are trying to show causation. Straight correlations like this don't need the same x axis.

Ehh...the Dow in 1927 (to show a 2 year rally) went from around 150 to 381. Over double the value.
The current rally for the past 2 years goes 13,000 ish to a high of 16,577.

2 years isn't a big deal for inflation (comparing 2012-14 or 1927-29) but using an inflation adjusted DOW for other years we're not very far from the high's in 96 or even the 2006 peak.

Adjusted for inflation the 1929 Dow Jones wasn't hit again after the Great Depression until the late 1960's to just give you some perspective on how inflated that market was. Even the majority of the 50's was spent with a market only half as high as the 1929 pre crash market.
 
Conservative policies caused this? LOL You must live in Colorado or Washington.
I don't. Yes, I am entirely convinced that the policies I voted for, or at least the Republicans that touted and installed them, have failed to work even though those policies have been escalated greatly since I quit voting for them in 2000.
 
Conservative policies caused this?

LOL

You must live in Colorado or Washington.

I didn't even know conservatives had policies, just unmeaningful bulletin points and buzzwords.
 
I didn't even know conservatives had policies, just unmeaningful bulletin points and buzzwords.
Fair enough when discussing current decade, but previously they did plenty as did the DLC which was just Conservatism-Lite.
 
Eh, it's all good. It's just my retirement money that I have invested. It's not like I am going to lose all my non-existent capital gains! Eat that, rich people!
 
The problem with that argument is that an x axis fit is only really needed if you are trying to show causation. Straight correlations like this don't need the same x axis.

You can't be serious.

WTF is that even supposed to mean?

If I skew the perspective of the image of an anthill I can make it appear to correlate to Mt. Everest.

I'd have to be a ****ing idiot to accept that a contrived correlation is representative of anything significant.

Here's an image of DJIA inflation for the two periods shown in proper perspective:

dow-jones-industrial-average-start-of-period-100-current-mar-1928-nov-1929_chartbuilder1.jpg

I'll add the heading: "Move along folks, nothing to see here.

If P. T. Barnum had access to the Internet the man would have been Emperor of the planet.
 
Yeah, I posted this as a tag on to a thread yesterday....So far I have been called every name in the liberal book, while libs dismiss the chart.

The criticism isnt a liberal-conservative thing. Its an honesty in data thing.

For starters,
Look at the right hand scale and the left hand scale. Totally different. We see a rise of about 100% in one, and a rise of about 35% in the other. I bet you could fiddle with scales and find a million of these matching charts in the last 100 years.. probably in every single market rise.

Secondly, look at the chart before that time. 1929 was at the end of a huge, huge bull market. At the start of your chart, the DJIA had already TRIPLED Iit was about 63 in 1922) with almost no pullbacks from 1922-1928, Thats kinda important for comparison, dontcha think?

Third, the DJIA is not a real good way to judge the stock market these days. It was probably better in 1930, but right now its just 30 companies.. and they arent even necessarily the largest.

Its a great chart for someone who is hawking gold, though. Easy to reel those suckers in with bad math.
 
How'd that work out for ya?

It's going as planned...

Unemployment drops but those out of the workforce continue to rise - now at it's highest level in 35 years. The stock market is a risky business and pretty much no one with expendable funds wants to invest in the market..

If it matters the beginning has already happened, and since we're a faith based economy may delusional people refuse to acknowledge reality or economic reality.
 
A fairly useless chart actually, and a highly misleading one to boot. The y axis is skewed in order to convey the idea that an increase of nearly 100 percent in the year 28-29 is proportional to an increase of less than a third. No surprise though. Every run of success the DJIA has enjoyed in recent memory has been compared to the run-up to the Depression by those who profit off of "scary" and "alternative" analysis.

The Y axis percentage fit is a better argument than the X axis, that is for sure, but that doesn't actually change the correlation. This kind of demonstrative fit isn't uncommon. You don't even need the to graphs to share the same a data source for a Y axis fit. One chart can have, for example, a Y axis that is CO2 concentration and a second Y axis that is Global Temperature anomaly, and both are scaled to fit in the same graph. So having 1928 DJIA and current DJIA scaled to fit the same graph isn't heresy when all you are doing is showing a correlation.
 
Yeah, I posted this as a tag on to a thread yesterday....So far I have been called every name in the liberal book, while libs dismiss the chart.

Hah... yeah. :cool:
 
It's going as planned...

Unemployment drops but those out of the workforce continue to rise - now at it's highest level in 35 years.

:lamo A declining unemployment rate validates your prediction of a depression? All hail the mighty LFPR!

The stock market is a risky business..

As opposed to when exactly? If you're not interested in risks, buy bonds or stay out the market entirely.

and pretty much no one with expendable funds wants to invest in the market..

Yeah? Who's doing all the investing?

If it matters the beginning has already happened

4 to 5 years ago actually. I'm sure you'll take credit when the next recession occurs though, no matter how many years down the road. It's the doomsday mantra.

and since we're a faith based economy may delusional people refuse to acknowledge reality or economic reality.

Words cannot properly describe the amount of irony here.
 
The Y axis percentage fit is a better argument than the X axis, that is for sure, but that doesn't actually change the correlation. This kind of demonstrative fit isn't uncommon. You don't even need the to graphs to share the same a data source for a Y axis fit. One chart can have, for example, a Y axis that is CO2 concentration and a second Y axis that is Global Temperature anomaly, and both are scaled to fit in the same graph. So having 1928 DJIA and current DJIA scaled to fit the same graph isn't heresy when all you are doing is showing a correlation.

You don't think magnitude matters? Come on man, this is just silly.

Slowdown or weakness is always a risk, but a crash? If you understand the fundamentals of economics, there's no reason for a crash right now.
 
:lamo A declining unemployment rate validates your prediction of a depression? All hail the mighty LFPR!



As opposed to when exactly? If you're not interested in risks, buy bonds or stay out the market entirely.



Yeah? Who's doing all the investing?



4 to 5 years ago actually. I'm sure you'll take credit when the next recession occurs though, no matter how many years down the road. It's the doomsday mantra.



Words cannot properly describe the amount of irony here.

You didn't read one ****ing thing I posted did you...

And a declining unemployment rate with the highest percentage of working individuals NOT in the workforce equals BAD ****ING NEWS.

You do realize unemployment statistics are nothing more than those currently working divided by those currently receiving unemployment benefits? - of course that doesn't speak for the 90 million that don't receive unemployment and or gave up looking for employment... That number is astronomical - our true unemployment rate is at like 30%.

Learn something before you ever address me in another post EVER.
 
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