Election night 2013

I know the thread title doesn't match but it's two seperate elections that I wanted to address...


Second story isn't linked because its so new that the headline is all there is. No story yet.

We had the culmination of a very strange mayoral race in Rochester, NY. The Democratic incumbent barely campaigned due to an illness (later death) in the family, and lost the primary to the 35-year-old City Council president. People continued to campaign on the incumbent's behalf, and running on the Independence and Working Families lines (NY allows for multiple party endorsements), he lost approx. 55%-40%.

Here's a great post about what Election night '13 tells us;

http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/11/05/what-will-tonight-tell-us/

Main quote:

"But we know already what tonight will tell us: the GOP is fracturing deeply, the internal contradictions of the Southern Strategy have begun to emerge as insurmountable, and the party is in danger of becoming a protest vote by seniors alarmed at the new multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-faith America being born – and with little credibility in actual governance. Christie is their hope – but the way he divides his party is also their predicament."

Threegoofs said:

Here's a great post about what Election night '13 tells us;

What Will Tonight Tell Us? « The Dish

Main quote:

"But we know already what tonight will tell us: the GOP is fracturing deeply, the internal contradictions of the Southern Strategy have begun to emerge as insurmountable, and the party is in danger of becoming a protest vote by seniors alarmed at the new multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-faith America being born – and with little credibility in actual governance. Christie is their hope – but the way he divides his party is also their predicament."

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I'm ecstatic about Cuccinelli's defeat, I only wish it had been by wider margins. But I'm not sure tonight actually told us much of anything that we didn't already know regarding the nomination of extreme candidates, especially ones who have such terrible images in the eyes of independents and moderates. However the astonishingly close vote in Virginia doesn't seem to support Sullivan's premise as well as it could, it almost seems like something he wrote before the election. I've shied away from his commentary because of how bitter he is when it comes to the GOP, I think it taints his pieces. Your excerpt is true but I don't see how tonight was resounding proof of that.

LOL. The Democrats had to fund a third party candidate to get a win. Even then they barely hung on. LOL.

ItAin'tFree said:

LOL. The Democrats had to fund a third party candidate to get a win. Even then they barely hung on. LOL.

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GOP Donors Double Dipping with Nader

The GOP funded Ralph Nader in 2004 to try to stymie Kerry. That's politics.

Here is a WaPo analysis of Christie's win: Why today is a great day to sell Chris Christie stock

There isn't much the Virginia Election is saying. McAuliffe barely won doubling the money over a Tea party Candidate. It took Biden, Clinton and Obama just to put McAuliffe over the top. As well as Michelle Obama's Radio Ads. Obama himself having to make a showing in order for Out of State Democrat who has never held an elected position in his life.....to win.

So the Democrats will spin it that this is the breakdown of the GOP and a refute of the Tea Party. While the Tea Party and the GOP will say it shows a refute of Obamacare. The problem isn't the spin or the media play. The problem for the Democrats is.....seeing this election that had poll numbers in the double digits for McAuliffe going into the last couple of days. Out spending and can only manage to eek-out a slight victory. Leaves to many other Democrats looking at Obamacare and knowing they are on the Bubble. That Independents, undecided, and the GOP came out to vote for the Republican candidate and almost made the pass. Of course Republicans now know if they would have ran a legitimate contender. They could have won it.

Now the Christie election does indeed show something.....it was a Landslide. 62% of the Vote. With Christie having 1/3rd of Democrats vote for him. Women Vote for him. Hispanics Vote for him and he even pulled more than the usual with the youth vote. This puts Christie in the front runner position for the 2016 Election for the GOP and presents a real Problem for the Democrats.....mainly due to Obamacare.

ItAin'tFree said:

LOL. The Democrats had to fund a third party candidate to get a win. Even then they barely hung on. LOL.

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Moreover, before the Launch of Obamacare McAuliffe was ahead +17.

jmotivator said:

Moreover, before the Launch of Obamacare McAuliffe was ahead +17.

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Mornin JM. :2wave: Yep.....but it seems al lot of those polls were skewered. What should have all those liberals and progressives waking up and taking notice. Was how Independents and the undecided. Brought all of that race down to the wire. Now they may be doing a recount.

Course I would look into the money areas. That's where McAuliffe should be check out and looked into deeply. McAuliffe would be an Excellent Candidate for Corruption. It just permeates the air all around him.

Hey MMC! In the end this is a push. 52% of the state voted for limited government and McAuliffe still faces a strong Republican legislature. McAuliff isn't getting anything he wants as governor.

jmotivator said:

Hey MMC! In the end this is a push. 52% of the state voted for limited government and McAuliffe still faces a strong Republican legislature. McAuliff isn't getting anything he wants as governor.

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Problem is the top 5 seats being Democratic.....not just McAuliffe. Moreover they will continue to increase pop in Northern Virginia more and more. With many who will work out of DC, and we aren't talking Republicans.

Threegoofs said:

Here's a great post about what Election night '13 tells us;

What Will Tonight Tell Us? « The Dish

Main quote:

"But we know already what tonight will tell us: the GOP is fracturing deeply, the internal contradictions of the Southern Strategy have begun to emerge as insurmountable, and the party is in danger of becoming a protest vote by seniors alarmed at the new multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-faith America being born – and with little credibility in actual governance. Christie is their hope – but the way he divides his party is also their predicament."

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You're delusional.

Your Chicago politicians had to fund a third-party candidate to barely eek out a victory you should have won in a relative landslide. Meanwhile, Christie won by historical proportions again in one of the bluest states in the nation.

Last night was a referendum on Obamacare, and you failed. The tide has tipped strongly toward the GOP, and that will play out next fall, especially after the abortion of this catastrophe really shows its ass.

My quick post-election thoughts:

The Christie re-election demonstrates that Republicans can be competitive on a national basis. To do so, GOP candidates need to win a broad share of voters (generally centrist voters, as well as conservative ones). Such positioning will cost GOP candidates a narrow slice of conservative voters (the Tea Party faction), but it will bring them far more additional voters than the small number they will lose. Christie provided an example of how to put together winning coalitions in an electorate in which Democratic voters outnumber Republican ones.

The false narrative that “RINOs” [fill in the name of any recent losing GOP Presidential candidate] were the reason the Republicans could not win national elections was proved false. Again. GOP candidates lost those races, because they were unable to build and/or articulate policy positions that appealed to an increasingly diverse electorate based on the exit poll results. In that evolving electorate, women and Latino voters play a larger role.

The narrative, popular on the airwaves but false, is merely an attempt at denial. It is an effort to avoid considering the possibility of reform in some areas, flexibility in others, and a willingness to at least try to understand differences to meet the ever changing needs of the electorate. The narrative was tested. Two pragmatic Republicans (Governor Christie and NY's Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino) prevailed in electorates in which the “degree of difficulty” for Republicans is relatively high given voter registration numbers. In contrast, the two uncompromising Tea Party candidates (Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia Governor’s race and Dean Young in the Alabama GOP primary for the 1st Congressional District) were defeated. The close margin in Virginia was not the result of a lack of national GOP support. It was the result of the combination of a badly flawed Democratic Party nominee and rough opening to the Affordable Care Act, a combination that would have propelled any credible GOP candidate to victory.

Three lessons from the 2013 elections are:

1. Governance, which requires a degree of pragmatism to build agreement and is measured by concrete outcomes, trumps loud posturing over ideology and unyielding rigidity.

2. Candidates can articulate positions on social values issues (both Christie and Astorino are right to life, for example), but a measure of restraint to respect the honest differences that exist on such fundamental issues will help them build winning coalitions; an aggressive crusading approach that favors state intervention to coerce outcomes will fragment the electorate leading to narrower appeal for such candidates.

3. At the State level, the GOP is building a roster of viable national candidates. The same cannot be said for some those coming out of the Senate, a number of whom led or supported a disastrous no-win fight over the ACA with little regard for the economic, political, or fiscal fallout and whom have accomplished little in the way of concrete results (unlike the governors in question). At the end of the day, results matter; excuses for a lack of results don’t.

MMC said:

Course I would look into the money areas. That's where McAuliffe should be check out and looked into deeply. McAuliffe would be an Excellent Candidate for Corruption. It just permeates the air all around him.

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Just about any credible GOP candidate would have defeated him on account of his flaws and the rough start to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). VA is not a blue state. The State GOP has only itself to blame for allowing an uncompetitive candidate to represent the party (the LG candidate was even worse). The GOP could and should have won this seat.

MMC said:

Problem is the top 5 seats being Democratic.....not just McAuliffe. Moreover they will continue to increase pop in Northern Virginia more and more. With many who will work out of DC, and we aren't talking Republicans.

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It still doesn't matter. The Legislature still controls the legislative process. McAuliffe can ask for all he wants but the bills still need to pass through state congress.

Also, Virginia Governor is a one term deal. McAuliffe will likely finish his term having changed nothing in the state.

donsutherland1 said:

Just about any credible GOP candidate would have defeated him on account of his flaws and the rough start to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). VA is not a blue state. The State GOP has only itself to blame for allowing an uncompetitive candidate to represent the party (the LG candidate was even worse). The GOP could and should have won this seat.

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I normally am very impressed by your reasoning Don, but in this one you show a significant one sided look at the situation and an amazingly unfamiliar undersetanding of Virginia, it's demographics, and the issues facing the state. My computer's having issues at the moment with formatting, not allowing returns to be shown...so I'm going to ear mark this for a response later. But you're coming at an extremely multi-dimensional issue from a SINUGULARLY one directional fashion that simply uses information that helps to confirm your already decided upon conclussion and ignoring facts and information regarding the state and the race that conflict with it.

jmotivator said:

It still doesn't matter. The Legislature still controls the legislative process. McAuliffe can ask for all he wants but the bills still need to pass through state congress.

Also, Virginia Governor is a one term deal. McAuliffe will likely finish his term having changed nothing in the state.

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And like Quinn.....he will go into court and freeze their pay.

MMC said:

With many who will work out of DC, and we aren't talking Republicans.

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Why do you think Republicans would not live there and work out of DC? That's what many of them do, Republican and Dems.

donsutherland1 said:

Just about any credible GOP candidate would have defeated him on account of his flaws and the rough start to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). VA is not a blue state. The State GOP has only itself to blame for allowing an uncompetitive candidate to represent the party (the LG candidate was even worse). The GOP could and should have won this seat.

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Mornin DS. :2wave: Well I agree with you and I do agree with you that they hold the blame. As if all would have united, Tea Party and all, I believe they would have won it, narrowly or by a very slight margin. Virginia demographics will continue, IMO to turn blue.

Even other Democrats should have ran McAuliffe out.....or chased him out. Telling him he don't know anything about the state nor its politics. Wanna donate.....great, can use the money. Other than that.....hit the road jack.

TheNextEra said:

Why do you think Republicans would not live there and work out of DC? That's what many of them do, Republican and Dems.

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I was going with Roves assessment of Washington DC, Virginia, and Maryland. Wherein he cites about the Federal government and all those Federal workers as well Union employees.

Sometimes.....Neo Cons will put those answers out there, despite deflecting on something else they are asked..

MMC said:

Problem is the top 5 seats being Democratic.....not just McAuliffe. Moreover they will continue to increase pop in Northern Virginia more and more. With many who will work out of DC, and we aren't talking Republicans.

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Northern Va is filled with non-Virginians.....we can smell them down here in SE Virginia. :lol:

Zyphlin said:

I normally am very impressed by your reasoning Don, but in this one you show a significant one sided look at the situation and an amazingly unfamiliar undersetanding of Virginia, it's demographics, and the issues facing the state. My computer's having issues at the moment with formatting, not allowing returns to be shown...so I'm going to ear mark this for a response later. But you're coming at an extremely multi-dimensional issue from a SINUGULARLY one directional fashion that simply uses information that helps to confirm your already decided upon conclussion and ignoring facts and information regarding the state and the race that conflict with it.

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I am aware of changes taking place that have made VA purple (particularly changes in northern VA). One has seen the electorate become more urban and more diverse (growing balance of voting power shifting to eastern/northern VA that now accounts for a large and growing share of the state's overall population). The 2013 election also continued the trend in which a higher share of the electorate had completed their college degrees. All of these factors have led VA to become less reliably Republican than in earlier elections. Nevertheless, all things being considered, this still should have been a GOP victory given the convergence of an abnormally weak/highly flawed Democratic nominee and issues related to ACA rollout. I'm not sure how much the McDonnell-related issues played into the vote, but didn't see a large impact in the early exit polling data. Cuccinelli might have won the VA of the early 2000s. He was not positioned to win VA in 2013. The flawed opponent and ACA issues masked what could have been a much bigger defeat.

MMC said:

I was going with Roves assessment of Washington DC, Virginia, and Maryland. Wherein he cites about the Federal government and all those Federal workers as well Union employees.

Sometimes.....Neo Cons will put those answers out there, despite deflecting on something else they are asked..

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You know Macaulliffe is anti-coal don't you? Just wait and see.

American said:

Northern Va is filled with non-Virginians.....we can smell them down here in SE Virginia. :lol:

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Enter Stage Right >>>>> ....Lynard Skynard. OOOH that Smell.....can't you smell that, smell. OOOH WOO that Smell, the smell Surrounds You! .....