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Egypt army commander suspends constitution[W:95]

cpwill said:
that is an excellent point. economic growth depends upon a certain threshold of predictability, and Egypt's economic problems do not belong to or disappear with Morsi.
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So neither tourism nor foreign investors were deterred by the Islamist government?

Sure the economy won't be fixed over night, but getting rid of the Brotherhood is only bound to make it better.
 
Analysts are optimistic that the ousting of President Morsi may presage a brighter future for Egypt's economy.

Stocks in Cairo rose by 7% on Thursday on the news, their largest one-day percentage gain in over a year.

Traders are hoping that Egypt's prospects will improve in the absence of Mr Morsi, even though the country's battered economy remains in crisis.

Some analysts said a long-stalled loan from the IMF may now be possible, although others remained sceptical.

"The technocrats will know how to deal with institutions - they will help the country financially because they have a clear agenda," said Sebastien Henin, portfolio manager at The National Investor, an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm.

"There will be a definitive change to the business environment for international and domestic investors," he added.
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BBC News - Egypt analysts optimistic for post-Morsi economy
 
Sounds like something the cons on the Sup. Ct. do from time to time ...
 
L0neW0lf said:
So neither tourism nor foreign investors were deterred by the Islamist government?
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Foreign investment will not be spurred by the lack of stability and predictability brought on by the coup - quite the opposite. And Egypt's problems center mostly on the unfortunate facts that her State controls too much of her industry, and that she is a rentier economy with a new political inability to cut off rising expenditures. :( There aren't enough tourists in all the lands (and they are unlikely to come now - tourists do so dislike revolutions, counterrevolutions, spikes in kidnappings, and the like) to solve Egypt's structural problems.

Sure the economy won't be fixed over night, but getting rid of the Brotherhood is only bound to make it better.
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That is.... for several reasons, not correct. I'm not saying that the Brotherhood was inherently good for the economy, nor am I saying that they had any kind of especial financial acumen (though a study of the success of Muslim finance over the past few years might suggest that when it comes to avoiding debt-fueled speculation, they may be on to something), but.... yeah. Outside of a temporary IMF loan (which itself is long-term harmful), I see very few ways in which this coup is "bound" to make the economy better.
 
L0neW0lf said:
"The technocrats will know how to deal with institutions - they will help the country financially because they have a clear agenda," said Sebastien Henin, portfolio manager at The National Investor, an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm.
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BBC News - Egypt analysts optimistic for post-Morsi economy
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Think about what he just said. The Mubarak crowd is back in charge. The people who kicked off this revolution by producing a failed economy a couple of years back.


:shrug: hey, I hope I'm wrong. It would be a great thing for the 80-odd million Egyptian people, who don't deserve to suffer because their state is stupidly structured. But I really don't see the military being willing to give up its' economic power now.
 
chromium said:
Is this going to be an annual thing I wonder, where they install a new muslim extremist. I don't see how this country as a whole deserves voting rights, when they continue to operate under a theocracy and rely on military coup.
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Who says there will be a new one? (indeed who were the previous ones? the Mamluks? ) the first one barely lasted two years.
 
cpwill said:
That is.... for several reasons, not correct. I'm not saying that the Brotherhood was inherently good for the economy, nor am I saying that they had any kind of especial financial acumen (though a study of the success of Muslim finance over the past few years might suggest that when it comes to avoiding debt-fueled speculation, they may be on to something), but.... yeah. Outside of a temporary IMF loan (which itself is long-term harmful), I see very few ways in which this coup is "bound" to make the economy better.
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But those few ways are important. Foreign investment fled the country when the MB took over, killing their currency and drying up the job market.

Granted, it isn't likely to come back in the middle of a civil war either...
 
cpwill said:
:doh I explicitly pointed out the opposite - that Morsi had not done all those things, but that if he had rebellion would be justified.
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Which Democratic principle did he miss then? The problem is that Egypt wants a Democracy and Islamists do not believe in Democracy. This created the conditions for overthrow. Morsi was ruling as a religious dictator and a 51% majority of the vote did not justify that. Even you agreed that America should rebel if a President became dictator.
 
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iguanaman said:
Which Democratic principle did he miss then? The problem is that Egypt wants a Democracy and Islamists do not believe in Democracy. This created the conditions for overthrow. Morsi was ruling as a religious dictator and a 51% majority of the vote did not justify that. Even you agreed that America should rebel if a President became dictator.
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I don't disagree that Morsi was an Islamist and that Islamists generally do not believe in Democracy... though they can adjust to it (see: Iran, which is sort of half a democracy). Nor do I claim that Morsi wasn't an authoritarian. I simply point out that military coups and mobs do not denote legitimacy in a representative form of government - elections do.
 
cpwill said:
I don't disagree that Morsi was an Islamist and that Islamists generally do not believe in Democracy... though they can adjust to it (see: Iran, which is sort of half a democracy). Nor do I claim that Morsi wasn't an authoritarian. I simply point out that military coups and mobs do not denote legitimacy in a representative form of government - elections do.
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I know I shouldn’t bother, but what is it about elections that are so sacrosanct without any other theological issues being addressed?

Elections mean nothing without the theory that backs them up.
 
GPS_Flex said:
I know I shouldn’t bother, but what is it about elections that are so sacrosanct without any other theological issues being addressed?

Elections mean nothing without the theory that backs them up.
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Correct. Look at our own country during our last election. A determined effort directed by the Obama administration to discourage, intimidate, frustrate and threaten with jail a large group of people that generally oppose everything Obama and the rest of the -ist's want to do. It went on for about three years but hit high gear after it was clear the group had very rapidly gained political strength with the domination it had with the midterm elections. Yes, we had an election in 2012 but the results were clearly influenced by the illegal and corrupt actions done by the Obama administration.
We sort of have a democracy nowadays but only when falls in line with what the leftists at the top want. Pass a law, doesn't matter, they do what they want. The constitution? They have no use for it.
 
iliveonramen said:
Sure but that's still playing out.
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yes but you could say that about any current situation - making it.... sort of... well, not useful for commentary. I don't really think that Turkey's military is likely to stage coup in the near future in Turkey.
 
GPS_Flex said:
I know I shouldn’t bother, but what is it about elections that are so sacrosanct without any other theological issues being addressed?

Elections mean nothing without the theory that backs them up.
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The theory is that sovereignty flows from the people to the State, not the other way around. The mechanism for that flow is elections. Without them, its' just self-proclaimed avatars of the people claiming to be acting on their behalf. Representative Government > Liking the Results of a Particular Election
 
cpwill said:
yes but you could say that about any current situation - making it.... sort of... well, not useful for commentary. I don't really think that Turkey's military is likely to stage coup in the near future in Turkey.
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The Turkish military has conducted multiple coups since the 60's when the government either grew too polarizing or lost control. In all coups Democracy was re established. Hence why I likened the Turkish military and their role to the possible role of the Egyptian military.

Seems to be a pretty useful comparison to me!
 
iliveonramen said:
The Turkish military has conducted multiple coups since the 60's when the government either grew too polarizing or lost control. In all coups Democracy was re established. Hence why I likened the Turkish military and their role to the possible role of the Egyptian military.

Seems to be a pretty useful comparison to me!
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The Turkish military was neutered during the Trials of the Generals when Erdogan went through and wiped out the power bases capable of fomenting a coup. It is possible they have a particularly charismatic junior leader somewhere, but unlikely, especially given that the Islamist party in Turkey remains the largest party by far, with a fractured opposition unlikely to pose any real challenges in the future.

:shrug: you can compare them, but when it comes to de-islamisization, not well. The Egyptian military was just fine with letting the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Nour parties be the largest two in the Egyptian government, just as they were happy to drop el Baradei when Islamists protested.
 
cpwill said:
The Turkish military was neutered during the Trials of the Generals when Erdogan went through and wiped out the power bases capable of fomenting a coup. It is possible they have a particularly charismatic junior leader somewhere, but unlikely, especially given that the Islamist party in Turkey remains the largest party by far, with a fractured opposition unlikely to pose any real challenges in the future.

:shrug: you can compare them, but when it comes to de-islamisization, not well. The Egyptian military was just fine with letting the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Nour parties be the largest two in the Egyptian government, just as they were happy to drop el Baradei when Islamists protested.
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Which is all pretty irrelevant. The Turkish military acted as a stabilizing force when a government become too polarized and order broke down.

The Morsy government was very polarizing. Like the Turkish Military the Egyptian military seems to see itself as an autonomous force whose goal is to keep the government in check.

Like I said...pretty similar role for the military and it worked for Turkey for a long time.
 
12-Year Old Explains Egyptian Revolution in Under 3 Minutes | REALfarmacy.com | Healthy News and Information

This kid is my new hero. There is hope for Egypt. There are good people who want a modern nation, free from tyranny and oppression from bronze age superstition. There are a lot within the younger generations in a lot of countries, who have learned about the world through mass communication and the internet, who aren't interested in relics of the past or separating people based on gender, religion, or sexuality. Building a modern nation is tricky, and Egypt isn't giving up the fight.
 
iliveonramen said:
Which is all pretty irrelevant. The Turkish military acted as a stabilizing force when a government become too polarized and order broke down.
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Really. Is that what we have seen, lately?

The Morsy government was very polarizing. Like the Turkish Military the Egyptian military seems to see itself as an autonomous force whose goal is to keep the government in check.
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Yes. We have a word for that sort of thing. It is called "Junta". It has a bad connotation for good reason. Ceding sovereignty to the military rather than the people is a form of government. What it is not, however, is representative government.

Like I said...pretty similar role for the military and it worked for Turkey for a long time.
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For decades. And we were willing to tolerate the abuses of such a system. The result is radicalized out-groups.
 
Paschendale said:
12-Year Old Explains Egyptian Revolution in Under 3 Minutes | REALfarmacy.com | Healthy News and Information

This kid is my new hero. There is hope for Egypt.
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:roll:

Unemployment among the young was at 25% before the revolution, and it's only risen since then. The Muslim Brotherhood remains the largest and best organized political movement in Egypt, and now it has been radicalized from the Democratic process, causing it to call for uprisings. The second largest party behind the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Nour, who has traditionally held the view that Democracy is un-Islamic, and was only (barely) pulled into the political process by the Brotherhood in the first place has just pulled out of the political process. They will likely now go back to their more traditional like-minded groups who are launching attacks in the Sinai and seeking to destroy the Tourism trade that previously provided about 10% of Egyptian GDP.

Speaking of which:

egypt-growth.png


Fuel subsidies alone are sucking up 8% of Egypt's GDP, and - along with food subsidies - drowning the government which can no longer survive without outside assistance. Egypt has to import 50% of the bread its populace is dependent on, and it is rapidly running out of the money to do so as food prices rise. To fix Egypt's economic slide would require a hefty amount of political and social trust and willingness for competing political groups to come to compromises, except now we are at the point where political groups are solving their disputes like this:

as.jpg


Oh, but hey! An erudite 12 year old who has been taught to say things that will appeal to a Western Audience!

There are good people who want a modern nation, free from tyranny and oppression from bronze age superstition.
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Yeah. Too bad they are less than a third of the populace, eh?
 
cpwill said:
Really. Is that what we have seen, lately?
.
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So true...it's impossible to make comparisons to situations which happened in the past. I missed that memo.

Yes. We have a word for that sort of thing. It is called "Junta". It has a bad connotation for good reason. Ceding sovereignty to the military rather than the people is a form of government. What it is not, however, is representative government.
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Not the same thing.

The country wasn't ruled by the military except for brief periods after restoring order.

For decades. And we were willing to tolerate the abuses of such a system. The result is radicalized out-groups.
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Radical groups already flourish in the region. That's the whole problem. Religious fanatics and Democracy cannot coexist.
 
iliveonramen said:
So true...it's impossible to make comparisons to situations which happened in the past.
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Well, you were responding to the "until Erdogan" statement. :)

Not the same thing.

The country wasn't ruled by the military except for brief periods after restoring order.
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The country is ruled by the military much to the same manner in which this country is run by the people - the military there exercises sovereignty and reserves the right to overturn all other decision-makers. To include the people themselves. So, yeah. The Sovereign is Sovereign.

Radical groups already flourish in the region. That's the whole problem. Religious fanatics and Democracy cannot coexist.
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Sort of. I think you have that bacwards. Democracy degrades fanatics by integrating them.
 
cpwill said:
Sort of. I think you have that bacwards. Democracy degrades fanatics by integrating them.
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I generally agree with you but not in all cases. I think there are political groups that are dangerous to Democracy when they gain a majority. Rather than being in the game to influence policy they are in the game to completely rewrite the rules. Democracy is a means rather than an end for them.
 
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