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Crisis in Egypt: Morsi and General Al-Sisi vow death

It's now been two days since the head of Egypt's armed forces tried to accommodate U.S. concerns and offered to allow the Muslim Brotherhood a chance to participate in Egypt's political transition.

BBC News - Egypt army chief al-Sisi: Room for all in Egypt

At that time, I guessed that the Muslim Brotherhood would insist on its unrealistic and unreasonable demand that Morsi be reinstalled as President and that the U.S. would not publicly credit this constructive offer. To date, the Muslim Brotherhood has retained its rigid demands. From the White House, there has been only silence, maintaining a U.S. leadership vacuum on an issue that remains important to U.S. interests.

In fact, USA Today reported that a de facto cut-off of U.S. military assistance to Egypt has been undertaken during a policy review now underway.

Reports: Most Egypt military aid cut off

In short, the U.S. continues to offer Egypt's transitional government no meaningful opportunities to take a more moderate course (its trial balloon toward that end was ignored) and instead seeks to punish Egypt during a time when U.S. reliability would provide a far greater incentive for a constructive political evolution. At the same time, the lack of transparency regarding the de facto severance of military aid can only breed ambiguity, again at the expense of U.S. reliability and U.S. influence.

In the wake of U.S. silence to Egypt's constructive offer, Egypt's transitional government can reasonably ask, "What does the U.S. really want?" Neither Cairo and probably not even Washington has a clear idea in the continuing absence of a U.S. foreign policy strategy on which a sound policy could be grounded and the overwhelmingly reactive nature U.S. foreign policy making has assumed in the absence of such a foundation.

Down the road, one should not be too surprised to see U.S. policy makers assert that the U.S. lacked sufficient influence to shape Egypt's outcome. On closer inspection, that excuse would be essentially groundless. The reality would be that through hesitation and ambiguity in the face of a crisis, the U.S. frittered away influence and opportunity to shape the outcome.
 
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donsutherland1 said:
It's now been two days since the head of Egypt's armed forces tried to accommodate U.S. concerns and offered to allow the Muslim Brotherhood a chance to participate in Egypt's political transition.

BBC News - Egypt army chief al-Sisi: Room for all in Egypt

At that time, I guessed that the Muslim Brotherhood would insist on its unrealistic and unreasonable demand that Morsi be reinstalled as President and that the U.S. would not publicly credit this constructive offer. To date, the Muslim Brotherhood has retained its rigid demands. From the White House, there has been only silence, maintaining a U.S. leadership vacuum on an issue that remains important to U.S. interests.

In fact, USA Today reported that a de facto cut-off of U.S. military assistance to Egypt has been undertaken during a policy review now underway.

Reports: Most Egypt military aid cut off

In short, the U.S. continues to offer Egypt's transitional government no meaningful opportunities to take a more moderate course (its trial balloon toward that end was ignored) and instead seeks to punish Egypt during a time when U.S. reliability would provide a far greater incentive for a constructive political evolution. At the same time, the lack of transparency regarding the de facto severance of military aid can only breed ambiguity, again at the expense of U.S. reliability and U.S. influence.

In the wake of U.S. silence to Egypt's constructive offer, Egypt's transitional government can reasonably ask, "What does the U.S. really want?" Neither Cairo and probably not even Washington has a clear idea in the continuing absence of a U.S. foreign policy strategy on which a sound policy could be grounded and the overwhelmingly reactive nature U.S. foreign policy making has assumed in the absence of such a foundation.

Down the road, one should not be too surprised to see U.S. policy makers assert that the U.S. lacked sufficient influence to shape Egypt's outcome. On closer inspection, that excuse would be essentially groundless. The reality would be that through hesitation and ambiguity in the face of a crisis, the U.S. frittered away influence and opportunity to shape the outcome.
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Mornin DS :2wave: .....and now another major blow to the MB. The Egyptian military has the MB's Supreme Spiritual Leader.

Egypt arrests Brotherhood's spiritual leader.....

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Egypt on Tuesday announced the arrest of the supreme leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, dealing a serious blow to the Islamist group at a time when it is struggling to keep up its street protests against the ouster President Mohammed Morsi in the face of a harsh crackdown by authorities.

The Brotherhood's spiritual guide, Mohammed Badie, was arrested in an apartment at the eastern Cairo district of Nasr City, close to the location of the six-week sit-in protest by supporters of Morsi, who also hails from the Islamist group. The encampment was cleared by security forces last Wednesday, along with another protest site in Giza, in a raid that killed hundreds of people.....snip~

Egypt arrests Brotherhood's spiritual leader
 
Grant said:
Consensus in Egypt | National Review Online
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While I don't believe a "post-American" government in Cairo is necessarily a foregone conclusion just yet, the "Great Hesitation" in Washington has left a large policy vacuum that increases the probability of that outcome. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I believe it is almost incomprehensible that the U.S. has been unable or unwilling to pursue any kind of reasonably coherent policy for so long given its large interests in Egypt. During the 1970s, it took a war and extremely skillful diplomacy by Secretary of State Kissinger to extract the USSR from Egypt and much of the Middle East. In contrast, hesitation and missteps are eroding U.S. influence and credibility and rapidly creating openings for others to exploit that situation.

I don't believe a post-Morsi government will repudiate its peace treaty with Israel, because such a treaty has served Egypt's interests. However, such a government might be less willing to run risks on behalf of American interests, unless its own interests are also at stake, if the U.S. maintains an absence of a coherent policy or seeks to punish the embattled transitional government.
 
donsutherland1 said:
While I don't believe a "post-American" government in Cairo is necessarily a foregone conclusion just yet, the "Great Hesitation" in Washington has left a large policy vacuum that increases the probability of that outcome. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I believe it is almost incomprehensible that the U.S. has been unable or unwilling to pursue any kind of reasonably coherent policy for so long given its large interests in Egypt. During the 1970s, it took a war and extremely skillful diplomacy by Secretary of State Kissinger to extract the USSR from Egypt and much of the Middle East. In contrast, hesitation and missteps are eroding U.S. influence and credibility and rapidly creating openings for others to exploit that situation.

I don't believe a post-Morsi government will repudiate its peace treaty with Israel, because such a treaty has served Egypt's interests. However, such a government might be less willing to run risks on behalf of American interests, unless its own interests are also at stake, if the U.S. maintains an absence of a coherent policy or seeks to punish the embattled transitional government.
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Looks like we will add more to the Crisis.....

White House says U.S. has not cut off aid to Egypt.....

Media reports that suggest the United States has cut off aid to Egypt are not accurate, a White House spokesman said on Tuesday, adding that the Obama administration is still reviewing its options.

"That review has not concluded and ... published reports to the contrary that assistance to Egypt has been cut off are not accurate," White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters in a briefing.

He said Obama was convening a meeting with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss Egypt and the review of U.S. aid to the country.

"I wouldn't anticipate any major announcements related to our aid and assistance in the immediate aftermath of this meeting," Earnest said, noting Obama holds such meetings regularly.

The Pentagon also denied reports that military aid had been cut off.....snip~

White House says U.S. has not cut off aid to Egypt
 
donsutherland1 said:
While I don't believe a "post-American" government in Cairo is necessarily a foregone conclusion just yet, the "Great Hesitation" in Washington has left a large policy vacuum that increases the probability of that outcome. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I believe it is almost incomprehensible that the U.S. has been unable or unwilling to pursue any kind of reasonably coherent policy for so long given its large interests in Egypt. During the 1970s, it took a war and extremely skillful diplomacy by Secretary of State Kissinger to extract the USSR from Egypt and much of the Middle East. In contrast, hesitation and missteps are eroding U.S. influence and credibility and rapidly creating openings for others to exploit that situation.
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Could it be possible that an incoherent policy is the policy? That it is deliberate as perhaps discussed in the staff lounges at Harvard? The thing is, if people who follow these things understand that American policies in the ME are foolish and short sighted, how can the leadership not know? These are not stupid people.
I don't believe a post-Morsi government will repudiate its peace treaty with Israel, because such a treaty has served Egypt's interests. However, such a government might be less willing to run risks on behalf of American interests, unless its own interests are also at stake, if the U.S. maintains an absence of a coherent policy or seeks to punish the embattled transitional government.
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Right. Israel, and the US to a lesser extent, can be blamed for all the faults of the local governments. It's best the people's anger is focused there in order to maintain that 'stability'..
 
Incoming
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Egypt Salafists warn against trying to wipe out Islamism.....

While security forces round up the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's second largest religious party has warned the state against trying to wipe out political Islam entirely during its toughest crackdown in decades.

The Nour Party, a Salafist group that backed the military's removal of President Mohamed Mursi last month, is now also feeling the heat, its leader Younes Makhyoun told Reuters.

Members of his pacifist party - which follows an austere interpretation of Islam - have been beaten, harassed and turned over to the police in recent days, simply because they wear beards as a sign of their religious observance, he said.

Political Islam could not be "uprooted", he added. "If anyone is thinking about excluding it, that is of the utmost stupidity."

The Brotherhood's main rival, the Nour Party turned strongly against the much older Islamist group earlier this year, joining liberals who accused Mursi of staging a power grab.

When Mursi was overthrown on July 3, Nour endorsed an army-backed transition plan, lending Islamist support to the new order as the government promised an inclusive process. But the party began to distance itself from the government after dozens of Brotherhood supporters were gunned down by security forces.

The Nour Party, the most successful political newcomer after Mubarak's downfall, tried to take the middle ground in the last months of Mursi's rule. It tabled proposals for defusing political tensions and boycotted pro-Mursi rallies.

That reduced Mursi's allies to smaller Islamist parties including the Gamaa Islamiya, a once armed Salafist movement.

After Mursi's downfall, Nour exercised major influence in shaping the interim government, vetoing two candidates for prime minister. Analysts say the party has paid a price as its approach eroded its standing among some Islamists.

Brotherhood activists involved in violence should be put on trial, he said. But "random arrests of all Brotherhood members is a mistake", he said......snip~

Egypt Salafists warn against trying to wipe out Islamism
 
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