Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%
You still don't get it. I know you're factoring in the paricipation rate since Obama took over. But you're only doing that for the current unemployment rate -- you're not doing that for the unemployment rate when Obama became president.
That's what I did for Bush; which made the unemployment rate 10% when Obama took over. By you saying it's up now even more than 10% because of that means you're factoring in the participation rate twice now for Obama.
What you're trying to do, and it's not working out for ya, is increasing the unemployment rate based on the drop in the LFPR. But the mistake in your equation is that you're only factoring in the drop in LFPR since January of 2009; when in fact, that drop began much earlier.
That means what you're doing is comparing the 7.8% that Obama inherited without factoring in the LFPR with the current 7.6% rate while factoring in the LFPR.
Apples to oranges. If you want apples to apples, you have to factor in the LFPR drop while Bush was president, which elevates the unemployment rate from 7.8% to 9.9%. So again, even by that metric, Obama lowered unemployment.
There's no spin. The BLS data indicates the U3 rate was 7.8% when Obama became president and it's now 7.6%. In my world, 7.6 is lower than 7.8.
That's where your problems begin -- you have no idea how many of those who left the workforce, did so because they wanted to.
Yet nothing you have presented indicates that. That seems to be your wishful thinking.
Okay...first
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet Not sure why the link does not work - just type in 'LFPR' in the 'Search' box.
The month GWB (who I think was a lousy POTUS btw) took over - the LFPR was 66.7%
For January 2007, it was 66.4%.
5 years later it had only dropped 0.3%.
By the time he left office - with a full blown major recession in progress - it had dropped to 65.8%. Obviously the recession affected the numbers greatly - just as the Fed suggested.
Now - since Obama took over, the rate has fallen to 63.3% - the lowest it has been since June, 1979 (!).
That is a drop of 2.5% in just over 4 years.
In GWB's first 5 years it had only dropped 0.3% (and then the housing slowdown began and things started to spiral downwards).
So, you are saying that the LFPR is primarily falling because of factors other then the lousy economy - despite the fact that it has dropped over 8 (EIGHT!!!) times faster during Obama's first four years then it did during GWB's first 5?
That is (imo) clearly ridiculous - no offense.
Two) If you wish to take a different starting date to figure in the drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) - go ahead.
But I chose the day Obama took over as my guide because he (and his disciples - like you seem to be) are insisting that the unemployment rate is about the same today as when he took over.
Officially, it is.
But the actual unemployment rate if you included those that have left the work force simply because they cannot find work should (imo) be counted as still part of the work force since they left by force/technicality - not by choice.
And on that basis - the unemployment rate should be well over 9% (using the Fed's own report as a guidepost).
Those are facts.
Now if you wish to spin it so your guy's numbers look better - feel free.
It changes nothing...facts are facts.
And three) the official unemployment rate is worse today then the day Obama was inaugurated - not better as you stated above.
The day he took office (January 20, 2009) the rate officially was 7.3% - not 7.8%.
Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Type in 'Search' window - 'unemployment rate' and hit the first result.
So by either standard I have listed here - the U.S. unemployment rate is worse today then the day Obama took office.
So, now I have a question for you.
Since the day Obama took office, the official unemployment rate is worse, average housing price is down, the national debt is up over 50% and food stamp usage is up over 40%.
National Debt by Year
On the basis of ONLY those guideposts - would you consider Obama's Presidency a success?
Yes or no, please?