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N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

APACHERAT said:
Kerry can't be any worse than Hillary. At least Kerry has some direct experiences with negotiating with our enemies in reference to Kerry directly talking to the North Vietnamese government in Paris back in the 70's.


Last week Obama appointed a long time liberal civilian JAG lawyer to be on an officers commissioning board. Looks like if you want to get promoted you better be politically correct.

I'm not sure, but I wonder if this is the same liberal civilian JAG lawyer who told the military they couldn't take out Osama bin Laden's convoy in Tora Bora in 2001 because the person sitting next to Bin Laden might be an innocent non combatant ?
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Apache, I know you long for the Cold War era when we could tell who our enemy's were.

But that era is gone. In its place is a kind of conflict were we have no advantage. We are fighting a enemy rthat does not recognize nationalitys, borders, or law. We are not fighting a war againist nations, we are fighting criminal orginizations, that is what terrorists are in the end: criminals.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Apache, I know you long for the Cold War era when we could tell who our enemy's were.

But that era is gone. In its place is a kind of conflict were we have no advantage. We are fighting a enemy rthat does not recognize nationalitys, borders, or law. We are not fighting a war againist nations, we are fighting criminal orginizations, that is what terrorists are in the end: criminals.
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Are you on the right thread ?

You just described our southern border and illegal aliens pouring across our border from Mexico. They also ignore our laws, nationality, sovereignty and are criminals.
 
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American said:
What the hell are all those ribbons for? It's not like they've been to battle in 60 years or something. Ever notice the generals, they cover the front and the back of their uniforms. Bunch of posers.
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That is an awful lot of fruit salad to be wearing.
 
cpwill said:
Sort of. Everyone is a rational actor. The A Priori Assumptions are the bitch to figure out.
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That's the general assumption... even though there is bountiful evidence showing that the human race is plagued by crazed individuals.
 
Jango said:
That's the general assumption... even though there is bountiful evidence showing that the human race is plagued by crazed individuals.
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who are acting perfectly rationally according to their deeply flawed beliefs.
 
I have been closer to the DPRK than just about anyone here. I didn't enter the country, but I saw and heard enough even back in 1999 that caused me concern for the people of the country. Rather than retell it here, I will link the YouTube video. (if this breaks any rules, mods just delete and give me a warning - thanks)

My personal experience in a border city across from the DPRK
 
This whole threat nonsense coming out of NK is just that (imo)...nonsense.

I give anyone 100:1 odds that NK does not attack within 6 months (I want my money sometime).
 
DA60 said:
This whole threat nonsense coming out of NK is just that (imo)...nonsense.

I give anyone 100:1 odds that NK does not attack within 6 months (I want my money sometime).
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I agree with you that it is highly unlikely, but we can't ignore it either.

There is a real possibility that Kim is in a tight corner. The military might really want this. If he backs down, he may be risking being overthrown. He may regard a limited confrontation as the best way out. It isn't like the DPRK hasn't done provocative actions in the past. It might be the only way for him to get out of this with his leadership in tact while not starting another war on the peninsula that would run the risk of starting World War II as the four most powerful states in the world are all right there.
 
ludahai said:
I agree with you that it is highly unlikely, but we can't ignore it either.

There is a real possibility that Kim is in a tight corner. The military might really want this. If he backs down, he may be risking being overthrown. He may regard a limited confrontation as the best way out. It isn't like the DPRK hasn't done provocative actions in the past. It might be the only way for him to get out of this with his leadership in tact while not starting another war on the peninsula that would run the risk of starting World War II as the four most powerful states in the world are all right there.
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But I believe that to pay attention to him is EXACTLY what he wants and why he is doing this.

I say tell him that if he attacks - he will be met with full force and blah blah blah (all the military threat stuff)...and that is it.


Other then in nukes (and America has agreed to attack the north with nukes if they attack the south with nukes), the north is completely outclassed by the south.

The North is stuck with 1960's/70's weaponry - since they have been broke for decades.

The South - having a very advanced economy - has a completely up-to-date armed forces...in all areas (outside of nukes).

The North knows this and would not dare attack.

And the only reason the NK people put up with the hardships is to support the military.

If the latter is shown to be useless - which it would in a war with the South - that support would undoubtedly fall away and Kim would be overthrown.

I guarantee you he does not want that.


No, imo, there is near zero chance that the North would start a war.

They have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose.

But just threatening to start a war might get them something.

Why not - it has more-or-less worked in the past.
 
DA60 said:
But I believe that to pay attention to him is EXACTLY what he wants and why he is doing this.

I say tell him that if he attacks - he will be met with full force and blah blah blah (all the military threat stuff)...and that is it.
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Pay attention, stern warnings, and no more aid (the problem is that in the past, the US and the ROK has rewarded this behavior with aid)


Other then in nukes (and America has agreed to attack the north with nukes if they attack the south with nukes), the north is completely outclassed by the south.

The North is stuck with 1960's/70's weaponry - since they have been broke for decades.
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True. But, they could still destroy Seoul and there isn't much we could do about. They can't sustain a war much beyond an initial thrust unless they get aid from the Chinese.

The South - having a very advanced economy - has a completely up-to-date armed forces...in all areas (outside of nukes).
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Agreed, though they don't have the numbers that the DPRK has and can't stop the DPRK from destroying Seoul.

The North knows this and would not dare attack.
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I would tend to agree with this, which is why I think a limited attack like sinking a South Korean ship or shelling a disputed island is more likely.

And the only reason the NK people put up with the hardships is to support the military.
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Actually, it is because they don't know anything else. They have been brainwashed for decades.

If the latter is shown to be useless - which it would in a war with the South - that support would undoubtedly fall away and Kim would be overthrown.
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He won't have to be overthrown. No Mussolini here. The USA would destroy him and the leadership in P'yongyang before it came to that.

I guarantee you he does not want that.
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Of course he doesn't.


No, imo, there is near zero chance that the North would start a war.
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Near zero chance he starts a large war, but a much greater chance he stages a limited engagement as mentioned above. Of course, that carries the risk, however small, of a mistake being made leading to escalation.

They have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose.
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True. This holds assuming Kim and their military are rational actors.

But just threatening to start a war might get them something.
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It has in the past. They are hoping it will again. Hopefully Obama and Park will not give it this time.

Why not - it has more-or-less worked in the past.
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Agreed.
 
North Korea may see a limited engagement as a solution to it's population problem.
They are starving, too many mouths to feed.
In the past the US has been very kind with the countries they have defeated.
It worries me that Kim may believe his own press.
 
ludahai said:
Pay attention, stern warnings, and no more aid (the problem is that in the past, the US and the ROK has rewarded this behavior with aid)




True. But, they could still destroy Seoul and there isn't much we could do about. They can't sustain a war much beyond an initial thrust unless they get aid from the Chinese.



Agreed, though they don't have the numbers that the DPRK has and can't stop the DPRK from destroying Seoul.



I would tend to agree with this, which is why I think a limited attack like sinking a South Korean ship or shelling a disputed island is more likely.



Actually, it is because they don't know anything else. They have been brainwashed for decades.



He won't have to be overthrown. No Mussolini here. The USA would destroy him and the leadership in P'yongyang before it came to that.



Of course he doesn't.




Near zero chance he starts a large war, but a much greater chance he stages a limited engagement as mentioned above. Of course, that carries the risk, however small, of a mistake being made leading to escalation.



True. This holds assuming Kim and their military are rational actors.



It has in the past. They are hoping it will again. Hopefully Obama and Park will not give it this time.



Agreed.
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Seems Gordan Chang would agree with you. He also thinks as soon as festivities simmer down. That N Korea will make an Attack upon S Korea. Like they did with the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of those Islands.

The Failure of Deterrence in Korea.....

hp.03.26.13.KoreaDMZ.jpg


In a poll released last month by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, 66 percent of South Koreans said they wanted their country to develop nuclear weapons to ward off attacks from North Korea. In fact, only 48 percent of the population last year believed America would use nukes to retaliate against a North Korean nuclear strike against them, down 7 percent from 2011.

The survey by the private think tank in Seoul is a clear vote of “no confidence” in the US, which has, by treaty, since 1953, pledged to defend the South, with nukes if necessary. If the South Koreans trusted Washington, they would not want to have their own arsenal of the world’s most destructive weapons.....snip~


Why Missile Defense? Because China Is Arming North Korea

So the North Koreans cannot be “unmoored.” On the contrary, Beijing is enabling the behavior, if not directing it. If the Chinese were really trying to restrain North Korea, they would not have transferred the launchers to the Kim regime in the first place. China also has various means of controlling its client state. And while China arms the Kim regime, it is criticizing America for defending itself: the Foreign Ministry on Monday responded to Hagel’s announcement by suggesting the administration’s missile-defense plan would “antagonize” North Korea.


North Korea is a regional menace. Thanks to China’s arms and technology transfers to North Korea—and the reach of its KN-08 missiles, which have sufficient range to hit targets on US soil—the Kim regime is on its way to being a global one. We don’t just have a North Korea problem. We have a China problem.....snip~

Gordon G. Chang's Blog
 
This clown has executed most of his generals since he started running the show, so there's no telling what he's got on his mind.

On one hand, did he purge his generals, because they didn't wanted to invade the south? On the other hand, did he do it because they did want to invade the south?
 
How about the possibility that Kim is just demonizing the USA to unite his countrymen behind him. He's a new leader and can generate a crisis in which he comes out smelling like a rose and looking powerful for standing up to the "Demon." This also distracts the citizens from local problems like hunger, etc. Since Teddy Roosevelt encouraged the Japanese to invade Korea, the USA has not been too popular. The USA has built a strong CORPORATE hegemony in South Korea to the benefit of the people, perhaps. Sometimes I think the North Koreans just want to re-unite the two Koreas as before the Japanese invasion. Also, as regards North Korean "nukes," our great ally Pakistan harbors the man who sold Nuclear Technology to the Third World and that would be A. Q. Khan, the National hero of Pakistan, and he walks the streets freely. Our ally, Pakistan, seems to be the nuclear benefactor/terrorist behind North Korea. Politics usually smells like fish whether it is local or international. There are no "white knights" in this embroglio.
 
One must also recognize the Corporate contribution to the public relations and media concentration on this event. First, when a country that runs on Corporate profits has a $700 billion military offense budget, the forces that profit from this budget will automatically mobilize their Media/public relations to make citizens feel frightened to maintain their profits. With the Iraq War wound down and the Afghan War winding down, a new area to generate profit must be found/annointed. Nothing like the threat of war to perk up those arms manufacturers and logistics support budget. War is profitable and damn good business, and business controls lots of press. Try to separate the truth from the profit. Impossible. Anyway, don't underestimate the power of hype for profit. The business of the USA is business, and war is a damn good business. Something seems to demand recognition in that last sentence.
 
I'm not too concerned about the North attacking the South in force. What I am concerned about is some mistake by some radar operator or some other misinterpreted piece of information causing an action that will lead to who knows what.
 
DaveFagan said:
One must also recognize the Corporate contribution to the public relations and media concentration on this event. First, when a country that runs on Corporate profits has a $700 billion military offense budget, the forces that profit from this budget will automatically mobilize their Media/public relations to make citizens feel frightened to maintain their profits. With the Iraq War wound down and the Afghan War winding down, a new area to generate profit must be found/annointed. Nothing like the threat of war to perk up those arms manufacturers and logistics support budget. War is profitable and damn good business, and business controls lots of press. Try to separate the truth from the profit. Impossible. Anyway, don't underestimate the power of hype for profit. The business of the USA is business, and war is a damn good business. Something seems to demand recognition in that last sentence.
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Please warn me next time. I didnt have my tin foil hat on.
 
I'm somewhat more concerned what this Admins reaction would be to a strike on this country.:surrender
 
jonny5 said:
Please warn me next time. I didnt have my tin foil hat on.
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Your hat won't reflect reality. Business per usual. Machiavellian ploys as written in The Prince.
 
WCH said:
I'm somewhat more concerned what this Admins reaction would be to a strike on this country.:surrender
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He would blame it on the Harlem Shake videos and say "what difference does it make?"
 
jonny5 said:
He would blame it on the Harlem Shake videos and say "what difference does it make?"
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We have bases within spitting distance that, with the right sort of weapon, could be obliterated without a lot of warning time. That possibility and the likelihood we wouldn't use a nuclear response because of the region in which they lie, leaves Barry with few options.

So you're most likely correct..
 
WCH said:
We have bases within spitting distance that, with the right sort of weapon, could be obliterated without a lot of warning time. That possibility and the likelihood we wouldn't use a nuclear response because of the region in which they lie, leaves Barry with few options.

So you're most likely correct..
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I have no doubt there would be a military response that would end with a regime change in North Korea. The Chinese are the wildcard.
 
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