• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

I kind of figured you were and then the previous poster raised the question and I didn't want to offend. In a different forum I was conversing with a white lady of about 75 years for about a year and discovered at that length of time that she was not the militant black 25 year old male depicted in her avatar.

Anyway, if that is your only point, you really need to examine what the problems with the hypothesis are.

Primary among the problems is that this is still a hypothesis despite being under review for decades. It does no meet even one of the criteria to be a scientific Theory and THAT all by itself should reveal something to you about the consensus.


Scientific theory - Ask.com Encyclopedia

A body of descriptions of knowledge is usually only called a theory if it has fulfilled these criteria:

It makes falsifiable predictions with consistent accuracy across a broad area of scientific inquiry (such as mechanics).
It is well-supported by many independent strands of evidence, rather than a single foundation. This ensures that it is probably a good approximation, if not completely correct.
It is consistent with pre-existing theories and other experimental results. (Its predictions may differ slightly from pre-existing theories in cases where they are more accurate than before.)
It can be adapted and modified to account for new evidence as it is discovered, thus increasing its predictive capability over time.
It is among the most parsimonious explanations, sparing in proposed entities or explanations. (See Occam's razor. Since there is no generally accepted objective definition of parsimony, this is not a strict criterion, but some theories are much less economical than others.)
The first three criteria are the most important. Theories considered scientific meet at least most of the criteria, but ideally all of them. This is true of such established theories as special and general relativity, quantum mechanics, plate tectonics, evolution, etc.

We've covered this before.

2. Just a theory?

Climate-change deniers and creationists have deployed the word "theory" to cast doubt on climate change and evolution.

"It's as though it weren't true because it's just a theory," Allain said.

That's despite the fact that an overwhelming amount of evidence supports both human-caused climate change and Darwin's theory of evolution.

Part of the problem is that the word "theory" means something very different in lay language than it does in science: A scientific theory is an explanation of some aspect of the natural world that has been substantiated through repeated experiments or testing. But to the average Jane or Joe, a theory is just an idea that lives in someone's head, rather than an explanation rooted in experiment and testing.

"Just a Theory": 7 Misused Science Words: Scientific American
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

I've done that already, many times.
I haven't seen any.

How about reminding us of one example please. Maybe we forgot.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

I disagree.

Regardless, you should know there are many more than "seven" scientists out there who disagree with the more common viewpoint.

In this case, I think you are taking a tangent to argue a term that at worse, I misused.

again, there isn't a lot if them. They make up a very small percentage. They are the outliners.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

I haven't seen any.

How about reminding us of one example please. Maybe we forgot.

Then you haven't looked. I've laid out if my claim, that there is a consensus, and to rebut his claim, that there is no solid evidence of GW and mans role.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

We've covered this before.

2. Just a theory?

Climate-change deniers and creationists have deployed the word "theory" to cast doubt on climate change and evolution.

"It's as though it weren't true because it's just a theory," Allain said.

That's despite the fact that an overwhelming amount of evidence supports both human-caused climate change and Darwin's theory of evolution.

Part of the problem is that the word "theory" means something very different in lay language than it does in science: A scientific theory is an explanation of some aspect of the natural world that has been substantiated through repeated experiments or testing. But to the average Jane or Joe, a theory is just an idea that lives in someone's head, rather than an explanation rooted in experiment and testing.

"Just a Theory": 7 Misused Science Words: Scientific American
LOL...

Great article... for a magazine that caters to laymen.

A real scientific magazine would choose to enforce the terminology to be correct, instead of dumbing down.

I used to love Scientific American, until I actually started to study real science.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

again, there isn't a lot if them. They make up a very small percentage. They are the outliners.
I will agree to that. However, facts make statistics. Statistics do not make facts.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

LOL...

Great article... for a magazine that caters to laymen.

A real scientific magazine would choose to enforce the terminology to be correct, instead of dumbing down.

I used to love Scientific American, until I actually started to study real science.

Doesn't change that they are correct. ;)
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Then you haven't looked. I've laid out if my claim, that there is a consensus, and to rebut his claim, that there is no solid evidence of GW and mans role.

That's because consensus does not make a theory or law. Models that poorly support hypothesis do not support anything to the extent of real theories or scientific laws.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Doesn't change that they are correct. ;)

Well, considering how dumbed down out society is becoming, I don't know what to say to that.

I often mix them up as well in casual conversation. We all my say " my theory is..." rather than using it correct scientifically. However, when we speak of scientific matters, it is absolutely incorrect to be so careless.
 
Last edited:
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

I will agree to that. However, facts make statistics. Statistics do not make facts.

Didn't say they did. But we have to rely in the best science, and not the outliners. And as there has always been an answer from the consensus to the outliners, there's no logical reason to accept the out liners. Now, I know you're impressed with your own brilliance, but you must accept that others may not be. And they seek to learn, not teach, and to them the consensus matters.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

That's because consensus does not make a theory or law. Models that poorly support hypothesis do not support anything to the extent of real theories or scientific laws.

Models are but one way. And they are a valid way.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Well, considering how dumbed down out society is becoming, I don't know what to say to that.

I often mix them up as well in casual conversation. We all my say " my theory is..." rather than using it correct scientifically. However, when we speak of scientific matters, it is absolutely incorrect to call be so careless.

Pits nit carelessness. Scientist merely mean something different than the lay person does, as the article noted. The scientist is not as uncertain when using the word as the lay person paints it.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

...So you all tell me. I know that those willing, or wanting to mask the "ends" that they are for will attack me for using the Blaze as a source for the secondary piece, but agenda 21 is there for all to read...

Agenda 21 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Read it, and do your own research, but this is probably the clearest sign that the UN is a dangerous to freedom, and needs to be dismantled.
Agenda 21 is a completely voluntary action plan, we can pull out at anytime and it's completely non-binding. It's a PR stunt, not a law. Even if it was binding, when was the last time we actually did what the UN told us to do? What would they do to us, send us a mean letter?
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

I've done that already, many times.



Then you are the only one. There is not a scientific paper written anywhere that has proven this or AGW would be a Theory and it is still just a notion.

You need to send this "proof" to the national Academy of Science.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Funny.

I don't see consensus anywhere in that definition.

What am I missing?



That's the long and the short of it right there.

The "Pal Review" process boys as you so accurately termed it in the recent past still can't bring themselves to accord this the Theory Level of recognition.

Just another thing on which they all seem to agree.

Why is it that they all agree that this the real deal and yet they all can't agree that this is the real deal?
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

We've covered this before.

2. Just a theory?

Climate-change deniers and creationists have deployed the word "theory" to cast doubt on climate change and evolution.

"It's as though it weren't true because it's just a theory," Allain said.

That's despite the fact that an overwhelming amount of evidence supports both human-caused climate change and Darwin's theory of evolution.

Part of the problem is that the word "theory" means something very different in lay language than it does in science: A scientific theory is an explanation of some aspect of the natural world that has been substantiated through repeated experiments or testing. But to the average Jane or Joe, a theory is just an idea that lives in someone's head, rather than an explanation rooted in experiment and testing.

"Just a Theory": 7 Misused Science Words: Scientific American



You have missed my point entirely. Again.

Evolution is a Theory and that means that it almost certainly a fact. It can be changed and adapted as new stuff is discovered. However, even before the perfect understanding of why it works, it can be used to predict and make verifiably accurate statements of the condition of things that it affects and are affected by it. Evolution includes biology, genetics, medicine and every generational change of any species ever evolved. This is pretty complex. It involves literally millions of interactions. They can all be explained, predicted and anticipated by the Theory of Evolution.

Does AGW Science do this? Let's check:

It makes falsifiable predictions with consistent accuracy across a broad area of scientific inquiry (such as mechanics).

Nope, missed it on this one.

It is well-supported by many independent strands of evidence, rather than a single foundation. This ensures that it is probably a good approximation, if not completely correct.

Let's see, what does "anthropogenic" mean... There's the activities of man and then there is... well you probably have guess this one. Missed again.

It is consistent with pre-existing theories and other experimental results. (Its predictions may differ slightly from pre-existing theories in cases where they are more accurate than before.)

The predictions of AGW Science are notable only because the are ALWAYS wrong. This really quite amazing. An unblemished record of failure. Missed on this one, too.

It can be adapted and modified to account for new evidence as it is discovered, thus increasing its predictive capability over time.

The Name of this tripe pretty well precludes any adaptation. The A part of AGW assigns the cause and did so before the case was closed. Really, before the case was opened. Adaptation away from being Anthropogenic pretty well destroys the entire discipline. Missed again.

It is among the most parsimonious explanations, sparing in proposed entities or explanations. (See Occam's razor. Since there is no generally accepted objective definition of parsimony, this is not a strict criterion, but some theories are much less economical than others.)

Let's see... Climate always has changed and it's changing again. The evidence needs to support a radical departure from previous climate changes and that is impossible since our planet's climate has at various times been pretty dynamic. Missed again.

The moral of the story is that the politicians started out with a cause and told the scientists they would give them a whole big pile o' cash to do research on it.

They took the cash. They are doing the research.
 
Last edited:
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

I've done that already. I did it over many posts. Many sources.

Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature - IOPscience

However, these types of articles are something you really should read:

Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?

(Snip)

The third characteristic is selectivity, drawing on isolated papers that challenge the dominant consensus or high lighting the flaws in the weakest papers among those that support it as a means of discrediting the entire field.

http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/19/1/2.full.pdf



You say there is a consensus and now you are attacking debating techniques that I have not used.

Still waiting for your response to the third piece.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

OK, If I were one of the scientists, I would be one of the 97.1% who agree AGW is happening.

Please explain something to me...

How many classify at the 50%?



Where is that percentage? How many thought AGW was more than 50% of the warming?



Yes, this fits you guys perfectly. You warmers are the denialists.


You guys continue to have faith in the sciences you fail to understand.



Al Gore, for example...



Interesting how debates from skeptics are refused by the alarmists.



This article demands the use of logic.

If I throw a watermelon off a building and there is a parking lot below, no amount of logic will keep it from hitting that parking lot. Maybe the windshield of that Toyota. Crap!

I gotta go.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Back to this:

Bond et al. 2013



Solar Variability: Striking a Balance with Climate Change



OK.

Can someone explain to me how much CO2 contributes if the sun is responsible for 25% the global warming increase, and black carbon for 44% of it?



Those who don't think about this are prone to accept this.

Like any political argument that is presented in one sentence; if the rebuttal is three sentences, you lose.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Is there a scientific consensus on black carbon being the reason for 44% of Global Warming?



What makes this interesting is that there are at least 50 discreet causes of warming and they all have an impact and often those various impacts are interrelated and interdependent.

In the case of each of these and all of these together, it's pretty obvious by now that modeling these presents problems that the best modelers in the world cannot overcome.

If our entire effort is directed at the modification of one of the causes and that cause turns out to have no real impact, what have we done? Hint: The bridge to nowhere.

http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0120a5c9415b970b-pi
 
Re: UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warming

There is a great deal of money to be made from human-caused global warming. I wonder how many global warming advocates would continue in their quest to save the planet if all of the money dried up?

If it were real one would think they would continue altruistically.



Technocrats are rarely altruists if we are talking about spending their own money.

If they are spending other people's money, no problemo!
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Would you call for an open debate on gravity? You see, treating nonsense as if it were valid is showing bias.



There actually is an open debate on gravity. One of the results is the verification of the black matter that apparently is pretty massive in the Universe.

Scientists know that gravity works and how and when it will work terrestrially, but they are not completely clear on why it works. The when and where part is a Law. The why part is a Theory. Both parts can be used to make predictions and are the basis for other courses of action.

AGW on the other hand, is a jumble of conjecture with no predictive capabilities. There was a cause and the AGW crowd assigned the effect.
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Anyone know if we have witness as large of a Coronal Hole in the sun, as the one we are witnessing since July?



Link in above pic.

another: NASA SOHO site



I have no idea what this might mean. it looks like something from Star Wars. Is the big black spot a "cool" place on the Sun?
 
Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Unless of course you cherry pick something that isn't the argument, or misrepresent what's being said, or present something as factual that isn't. Go back to the article on tricks your side uses. ;)



I'm not using any tricks. Go ahead and make your case.
 
Back
Top Bottom