Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

Boo Radley · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Lord of Planar said:
OK, If I were one of the scientists, I would be one of the 97.1% who agree AGW is happening.

Please explain something to me...

How many classify at the 50%?

Where is that percentage? How many thought AGW was more than 50% of the warming?

Yes, this fits you guys perfectly. You warmers are the denialists.

You guys continue to have faith in the sciences you fail to understand.

Al Gore, for example...

Interesting how debates from skeptics are refused by the alarmists.

If it's 30% instead of 50%, so?

And debate isn't refused. Too often you resent things that are factually inaccurate. Once that is noted, and you cling to it, that ends actual debate.

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Boo Radley said:
If it's 30% instead of 50%, so?

And debate isn't refused.

Really?

Then can you point me to an actual debate rather than pal review vs. peer review wars? I can't find any.

Call for an Open Debate on Climate Science.

Funny how I have listened to skeptics speak, and they claim the likes of Hansen, Mann, and others refuse to have an actual debate on the subject. Have you ever heard of an actual debate between climate scientists?

Boo Radley said:
Too often you resent things that are factually inaccurate. Once that is noted, and you cling to it, that ends actual debate.

What did I say that was inaccurate? Was it real, or a typo? Can you please tell me what mistake I made?

You didn't answer my question.

In that study, they take those with the AGW agreement (97.1%) and mention a 50% point. They do not say how many of the scientists say that AGW is more or less than 50% of the observed warming.

You fail to comprehend my argument that YES! AGW is real. My argument is that it is less than 50% of the warming. They mention the 50% point, but do not quantify it.

I wonder why...

How many times have I mentioned that what is not said, is as important as what is said?

Helix · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Moderator's Warning:

From this point on, attacks will result in points and thread bans. To be safe, address the topic, and not other posters.

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Back to this:

Bond et al. 2013

After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m-2.

Solar Variability: Striking a Balance with Climate Change

Over the past century, Earth's average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit). Solar heating accounts for about 0.15 C, or 25 percent, of this change, according to computer modeling results published by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies researcher David Rind in 2004.

OK.

Can someone explain to me how much CO2 contributes if the sun is responsible for 25% the global warming increase, and black carbon for 44% of it?

distraff · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Lord of Planar said:
Back to this:

Bond et al. 2013

Solar Variability: Striking a Balance with Climate Change

OK.

Can someone explain to me how much CO2 contributes if the sun is responsible for 25% the global warming increase, and black carbon for 44% of it?

Is there a scientific consensus on black carbon being the reason for 44% of Global Warming?

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

distraff said:
Is there a scientific consensus on black carbon being the reason for 44% of Global Warming?

I derived the 44% from it accounting for 0.71/1.6 W/m^2 warming as claimed by the IPCC.

This is a new study, and Bond is a respected climate scientist. Nobody can class him as a denier. I love the new accurate data that science now has on the subject since SOURCE was launched.

Full study:

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Authors:

T. C. Bond1, S. J. Doherty2, D. W. Fahey3, P. M. Forster4, T. Berntsen5, B. J. DeAngelo6, M. G. Flanner7, S. Ghan8, B.
Kärcher9, D. Koch10, S. Kinne11, Y. Kondo12, P. K. Quinn13, M. C. Sarofim6, M. G. Schultz14, M. Schulz15, C.
Venkataraman16, H. Zhang17, S. Zhang18, N. Bellouin19, S. K. Guttikunda20, P. K. Hopke21, M. Z. Jacobson22, J. W.
Kaiser23, Z. Klimont24, U. Lohmann25, J. P. Schwarz3, D. Shindell26, T. Storelvmo27, S. G. Warren28, C. S. Zender29

1University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA.
2Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
3NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
4University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
5Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo and Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
6US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.
7University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
8Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA.
9Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany.
10US Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA.
11Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany.
12University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
13NOAA Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA.
14Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany.
15Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway.
16Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, India.
17China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
18Peking University, Beijing, China.
19Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
20Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA
21Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York, USA.
22Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
23 European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, King's College London, London, UK, and Max Planck Institute for
Chemistry, Mainz, Germany.
24International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
25Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
26NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA.
27Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
28University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
29University of California, Irvine, California, USA.

distraff · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Lord of Planar said:
I derived the 44% from it accounting for 0.71/1.6 W/m^2 warming as claimed by the IPCC.

This is a new study, and Bond is a respected climate scientist. Nobody can class him as a denier. I love the new accurate data that science now has on the subject since SOURCE was launched.

Full study:

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Authors:

T. C. Bond1, S. J. Doherty2, D. W. Fahey3, P. M. Forster4, T. Berntsen5, B. J. DeAngelo6, M. G. Flanner7, S. Ghan8, B.
Kärcher9, D. Koch10, S. Kinne11, Y. Kondo12, P. K. Quinn13, M. C. Sarofim6, M. G. Schultz14, M. Schulz15, C.
Venkataraman16, H. Zhang17, S. Zhang18, N. Bellouin19, S. K. Guttikunda20, P. K. Hopke21, M. Z. Jacobson22, J. W.
Kaiser23, Z. Klimont24, U. Lohmann25, J. P. Schwarz3, D. Shindell26, T. Storelvmo27, S. G. Warren28, C. S. Zender29

1University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA.
2Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
3NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
4University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
5Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo and Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
6US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.
7University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
8Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA.
9Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany.
10US Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA.
11Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany.
12University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
13NOAA Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA.
14Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany.
15Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway.
16Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, India.
17China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
18Peking University, Beijing, China.
19Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
20Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA
21Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York, USA.
22Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
23 European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, King's College London, London, UK, and Max Planck Institute for
Chemistry, Mainz, Germany.
24International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
25Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
26NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA.
27Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
28University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
29University of California, Irvine, California, USA.

Wait... did the paper give this 44% statistic or did you decide to do your own scientific analysis based on what the paper said?

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

distraff said:
Wait... did the paper give this 44% statistic or did you decide to do your own scientific analysis based on what the paper said?

I derived the 44% from it accounting for 0.71/1.6 W/m^2 warming as claimed by the IPCC.

The IPCC claims 1.6 W/m^2 of warming. The study claims 0.71 W/m^2 is cause by BC.

0.71/1.6 = 0.4438.

Misterveritis · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Papa bull said:
How many decades of "plateau" is it going to take before you warmists can agree you're wrong. Or are you all going to go to your grave swearing up and down that one of these days there will be the 2nd coming of global warming?

Will the much awaited return of JC coincide with global warming?

Misterveritis · Aug 10, 2013

Re: UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warming

j-mac said:
That would only be so if your proclaimed science hadn't been caught skewing data to fit the political agenda.

There is a great deal of money to be made from human-caused global warming. I wonder how many global warming advocates would continue in their quest to save the planet if all of the money dried up?

If it were real one would think they would continue altruistically.

distraff · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Lord of Planar said:
The IPCC claims 1.6 W/m^2 of warming. The study claims 0.71 W/m^2 is cause by BC.

0.71/1.6 = 0.4438.

I would be careful with doing climate science for the climate paper if you are not yourself a climate scientist. You never know the little differences in measures that could be taken into account. So it may not be apples and oranges. First off, what are the time intervals for the two estimates you cited?

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warming

Misterveritis said:
There is a great deal of money to be made from human-caused global warming. I wonder how many global warming advocates would continue in their quest to save the planet if all of the money dried up?

If it were real one would think they would continue altruistically.

I think if it were real, we would be making real changes.

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

distraff said:
I would be careful with doing climate science for the climate paper if you are not yourself a climate scientist. You never know the little differences in measures that could be taken into account. So it may not be apples and oranges. First off, what are the time intervals for the two estimates you cited?

They are both from 1750 to 2005.

Misterveritis · Aug 10, 2013

Re: UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warming

Boo Radley said:
Let me give you a little help:

We find such claims to be far wide of the mark. The e-mails (which have been made available by an unidentified individual here) do show a few scientists talking frankly among themselves — sometimes being rude, dismissive, insular, or even behaving like jerks. Whether they show anything beyond that is still in doubt. An investigation is being conducted by East Anglia University,

In other news the Holder Justice Department is investigating Fast and Furious to find out what they did and when they did it. Obama is investigating his Benghazi Massacre and estimates he will eventually find out where he was from the moment he was notified of the attack to the time he departed 9 hours later for his Las Vegas fundraiser.

distraff · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Lord of Planar said:
They are both from 1750 to 2005.

According to this article:
Black carbon is worse for global warming than previously thought | Environment | theguardian.com

CO2 alone is responsible for 1.6 watts per square meter. Black carbon is responsible for 1.1 watts per square meter. Remember that this is one study that may be later confirmed or dis-confirmed. So lets not jump to any conclusions yet.

Misterveritis · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

code1211 said:
I find it to be annoying when idiots change quotes and present them as quotes.

I like it as long as it is clever and obvious. Use italics to clearly identify the changed words...or bold or both.

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

distraff said:
According to this article:
Black carbon is worse for global warming than previously thought | Environment | theguardian.com

CO2 alone is responsible for 1.6 watts per square meter. Black carbon is responsible for 1.1 watts per square meter. Remember that this is one study that may be later confirmed or dis-confirmed. So lets not jump to any conclusions yet.

Yes, you caught me.

I forget what the total is positive forcing is. CO2 is at 1.66 W/m^2 according to the IPCC, but net warming is 1.6 WW/m^2. According to the IPCC, the cooling effects (negative forcing components) make the net warming about equal to the warming of CO2.

Think about this though.

Solar is increased, BC is increased. This means for CO2 and the net forcing to stay as claimed by the IPCC, other warming factors have to decrease, or they have to find a way to claim more cooling by other factors.

Either way. The alarmist community is wrong on their assessments.

Verax · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Lord of Planar said:
Yes, you caught me.

I forget what the total is positive forcing is. CO2 is at 1.66 W/m^2 according to the IPCC, but net warming is 1.6 WW/m^2. According to the IPCC, the cooling effects (negative forcing components) make the net warming about equal to the warming of CO2.

Think about this though.

Solar is increased, BC is increased. This means for CO2 and the net forcing to stay as claimed by the IPCC, other warming factors have to decrease, or they have to find a way to claim more cooling by other factors.

Either way. The alarmist community is wrong on their assessments.

Another example of how you don't even know what you're talking about. Why would you divide the forcing of black carbon by the forcing of Co2? You would divide bc by the total forcing to get the percentage it contributes. Unless of course you wanted to skew the results to prove your "cause".

You would divide 1.1 by 4.3 to get 25.5% which is certainly significant as it is but no need to exaggerate.

However I have to ask.... how does this negate anything? What was it about 60% of the bc comes from burning fossil fuels which environmentalists are trying to stop. The effects of bc are quickly mitigated so reduction of fossil fuel use would have immediate benefits.

What exactly are you denying here? Co2 is still by far the #1 contributor to climate change.

Once again you are playing jockey jumping between denying climate change, accepting it but saying there is nothing we can do, denying it but saying its black carbon... You switch stances more times than Mic Jagger performing on stage.

EDIT:

Oh yeah lets add some more of your stances. Last week it was variations in solar forcing that deserved the lion's share of the blame right? But what about Sven... whatever his name is, with the gamma rays. Didn't you say its the gamma rays that are doing it?

What's your stance going to be next week?

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Verax said:
Another example of how you don't even know what you're talking about.

I knew exactly what I was doing.

Verax said:
Why would you divide the forcing of black carbon by the forcing of Co2?

That's not what I did.

Verax said:
You would divide bc by the total forcing to get the percentage it contributes.

Yes, The total net forcing is 1.6 W/m^2. BC is 0.71 W/m^2.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 44% of 1.6 equal to 0.71?

Verax said:
Unless of course you wanted to skew the results to prove your "cause".

I did explain it in post 492, didn't I?

Verax said:
You would divide 1.1 by 4.3 to get 25.5% which is certainly significant as it is but no need to exaggerate.

Is the 4.3 the total positive forcing? I don't recall, I would have to look it up.

Verax said:
However I have to ask.... how does this negate anything? What was it about 60% of the bc comes from burning fossil fuels which environmentalists are trying to stop.

Is it only 60%? Without looking, I would suspect more than 60% comes from fossil fuels.

Verax said:
The effects of bc are quickly mitigated so reduction of fossil fuel use would have immediate benefits.

Really?

That peer reviewed article has BC GWP at 900 for the 100 year timeframe. The AR4 places methane at 25, and N2O at 298.

Verax said:
What exactly are you denying here? Co2 is still by far the #1 contributor to climate change.

According to the IPCC yes.

Verax said:
Once again you are playing jockey jumping between denying climate change, accepting it but saying there is nothing we can do, denying it but saying its black carbon... You switch stances more times than Mic Jagger performing on stage.

Once again, I do not deny AGW or climate change. I disagree with the impact claimed for CO2. Please, get that strait. I forget how many times I remind you and others of that.

Verax said:
EDIT:

Oh yeah lets add some more of your stances. Last week it was variations in solar forcing that deserved the lion's share of the blame right?

Yes. I still believe that solar is the primary cause of warming since 1750. That article only covered the last 100 years for solar. I believe solar to be about 0.9 W/m^2 since 1750. Even if BC is stronger than solar, my consistent claim for several years now has been that CO2 takes third place to solar and soot.

Verax said:
But what about Sven... whatever his name is, with the gamma rays. Didn't you say its the gamma rays that are doing it?

No, I'm a bit neutral on that. I believe he is correct that there is an effect, but I think it will be less than CO2.

Verax said:
What's your stance going to be next week?

The same as the last several years I bet. Now if something changes, I will not be ashamed to admit "I was wrong."

Lord of Planar · Aug 10, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

distraff said:
According to this article:
Black carbon is worse for global warming than previously thought | Environment | theguardian.com

CO2 alone is responsible for 1.6 watts per square meter. Black carbon is responsible for 1.1 watts per square meter. Remember that this is one study that may be later confirmed or dis-confirmed. So lets not jump to any conclusions yet.

Thanx.

I had to do a double-take on that.

One of the two links I posted earlier has a 1.1 F increase in temperature for warming over the last 100 years, so I didn't notice this right away. The study the Guardian cites is the same one I linked in post #481. They do in fact say 1.1 W/m^2 instead of 0.71 for a total forcing increase cased by BC. The 0.71 is the direct atmospheric forcing only. the 1.1 comes when calculating the warming/melting ice, etc. as well.

Boo Radley · Aug 11, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Lord of Planar said:
Really?

Then can you point me to an actual debate rather than pal review vs. peer review wars? I can't find any.

Call for an Open Debate on Climate Science.

Funny how I have listened to skeptics speak, and they claim the likes of Hansen, Mann, and others refuse to have an actual debate on the subject. Have you ever heard of an actual debate between climate scientists?

What did I say that was inaccurate? Was it real, or a typo? Can you please tell me what mistake I made?

You didn't answer my question.

In that study, they take those with the AGW agreement (97.1%) and mention a 50% point. They do not say how many of the scientists say that AGW is more or less than 50% of the observed warming.

You fail to comprehend my argument that YES! AGW is real. My argument is that it is less than 50% of the warming. They mention the 50% point, but do not quantify it.

I wonder why...

How many times have I mentioned that what is not said, is as important as what is said?

Would you call for an open debate on gravity? You see, treating nonsense as if it were valid is showing bias.

Boo Radley · Aug 11, 2013

Re: UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warming

Misterveritis said:
In other news the Holder Justice Department is investigating Fast and Furious to find out what they did and when they did it. Obama is investigating his Benghazi Massacre and estimates he will eventually find out where he was from the moment he was notified of the attack to the time he departed 9 hours later for his Las Vegas fundraiser.

Which in no way speaks to this issue.

Lord of Planar · Aug 11, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Boo Radley said:
Would you call for an open debate on gravity? You see, treating nonsense as if it were valid is showing bias.

Why would I do such a silly thing?

Gravity has been quantified, and there is no dispute in the scientific community about it.

How many scientists disagree with the values assigned to gravity? can you think of any?

Several scientists dispute the warming values given to CO2.

code1211 · Aug 11, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Boo Radley said:
I've done that already. I did it over many posts. Many sources.

Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature - IOPscience

However, these types of articles are something you really should read:

Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?

(Snip)

The third characteristic is selectivity, drawing on isolated papers that challenge the dominant consensus or high lighting the flaws in the weakest papers among those that support it as a means of discrediting the entire field.

http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/19/1/2.full.pdf

I already know there is a consensus. What exactly are they consenting to and what is the proof that the consensus is justified? Do they all agree there is some effect from CO2? The whole effect comes from CO2? What is the exact thing that they all are agreeing to?

Why do you continue to repeat the same thing over and over? Make one assertion and back it up with evidence.

As an example, you could assert and demonstrate that CO2 is prime driver of climate or demonstrate exactly what contribution warming CO2 has. That's all I'm asking.

Are you incapable of producing this?

There are at least 50 forcing factors for warming and climate change. To quantify the effect of one, you must quantify the effect of all. For your first attempt, though, I will accept the definition of the quantity of the effect from only the effect of CO2.

If you determine that CO2 is the prime driver of warming, please be prepared to explain why the warming stops and drops despite the continuous and constant rise of CO2.

View attachment 67151904

code1211 · Aug 11, 2013

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Misterveritis said:
I like it as long as it is clever and obvious. Use italics to clearly identify the changed words...or bold or both.

I don't mind if the poster posts the quote as it is and then, separate from the quote in the body of the response, uses quotation marks and makes it clear what was said and what the revision is.

Changing the quote within the little quote balloon is nothing less than dishonest and libelous.

Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

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