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Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

SgtRock

SgtRock

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BREAKING NEWS from NBC Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order
12-05-12

Syria has mixed the binary chemical components and armed bombs and missles with GB nerve agent better known as Sarin. Sarin was developed by the Germans in 1938. It is a organophosphorus which attacks the nervous system killing withing 15 minutes. Once the chemicals are mixed to form Sarin they must be used within 60 days to be effective. A single artillery shell of GB could kill 20,000 plus in a city like Aleppo or Tel Aviv. It can be inhaled or absorbed through the skin. The treatment for GB poisening is atropine.
My knowledge of chemical weapons comes from trainning I recieved at the US Armys former Nuclear Biologocial and Chemical school at Ft McClellan Alabama. I was trained their as a NBC operations specialist in 1980.

As recently as Tuesday, officials had said there was as yet no evidence that the process of mixing the "precursor" chemicals had begun. But Wednesday, they said their worst fears had been confirmed: The nerve agents were locked and loaded inside the bombs.
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Sadam Hussain used Sarin on his own people and we know what the results were.

Most of the reports I have read indicate that Assad would use this dangerous chemical weapon on his own people. I believe he knows his days are numbered and he will use them on Israel. There are at least 8 installations in Syira where chemical weapons are known to be stored. Two of those are near the border with Lebanon and within range of Israel.

Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order - World News
 
I've been hoping someone would find a recent story in this Breaking News (saw snippets about it on CNN, but can't find a link). If the Sarin gas has already been mixed and loaded, this could get incredibly ugly incredibly fast. I hope those few brave journalists on the ground in Syria beat feet to a safer destination.

Then again, with so many potential targets covering so many hundred miles, who could predict where is "safe" and where is not? I'm feeling quite uneasy about this development. :(
 
SgtRock said:
BREAKING NEWS from NBC Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order
12-05-12

Syria has mixed the binary chemical components and armed bombs and missles with GB nerve agent better known as Sarin. Sarin was developed by the Germans in 1938. It is a organophosphorus which attacks the nervous system killing withing 15 minutes. Once the chemicals are mixed to form Sarin they must be used within 60 days to be effective. A single artillery shell of GB could kill 20,000 plus in a city like Aleppo or Tel Aviv. It can be inhaled or absorbed through the skin. The treatment for GB poisening is atropine.
My knowledge of chemical weapons comes from trainning I recieved at the US Armys former Nuclear Biologocial and Chemical school at Ft McClellan Alabama. I was trained their as a NBC operations specialist in 1980.



Sadam Hussain used Sarin on his own people and we know what the results were.

Most of the reports I have read indicate that Assad would use this dangerous chemical weapon on his own people. I believe he knows his days are numbered and he will use them on Israel. There are at least 8 installations in Syira where chemical weapons are known to be stored. Two of those are near the border with Lebanon and within range of Israel.

Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order - World News
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I would be stunned if he used them on Israel. These are my thoughts:

Assad and his cohorts in Damascus are attempting to gauge Western, and in this case more importantly regional reaction to their overt preparations for demonstrative chemical strikes. While simultaneously exploring the possibility of seeking asylum, they can demonstrate their capacity to deal mass violence which is a powerful negotiating tool for calling off the international hounds. However it would be a mistake to view this solely as political theater, the Damascus government clearly envisions several scenarios and ways in which usage could be plausibly useful:

A. The government I believe has made the calculus that a demonstrative use of chemical weapons that inflicts 40-100+ casualties is unlikely to incur immediate international military action, and that US deterrence thresholds are as the past year of fighting has proved, extremely elastic. I doubt Assad believes that the President will commit to immediately military action on one, or even two or three such strikes alone.

B. In using these weapons they can try and strike at the all important political-military link between the Syrian rebel groups and their civil base. They probably hope such terror bombings would slow the flow of recruits to rebel groups, and limit operational cooperation in areas likely to come under bombardment (i.e. suburban areas and environ towns which are crucial to the rebels but easy politically and technically to target effectively).

C. It will stiffen the back of Assad loyalists who may be convinced that the regime is not preparing to flee and abandon them to their fates. If the regime hopes as some have speculated to create a rump state in Latakia, the usage and transference of such weapons could be solid boost.

Now, obviously usage brings about some severe problems for the government. First of all it absolutely abrogates any hope of a negotiated exit or settlement even with Assad deposed, the war would be to the finish. Secondly it opens Assad up to the risk of internal political overthrow from leadership cadres who see this as tainting their ability to function and build alliances in a post-Assad Syria. Third it poisons the waters with key allies like Russia and Iran and while asylum would still almost certainly be accepted (from Iran) the continued high level military backing might become untenable. Fourth and most severely is the risk of international military action, as I said I think they can get away with limited use without bringing this about in a quick fashion (it might lay the groundwork for future intervention) but a mass casualty attack or international attacks ends this security, so does transference to paramilitary third parties like Hezbollah.

Just as a side note, aside from the political reasons not to fire at Israel, it is probably technically extremely difficult to effectively target Israel. Assad does not have a huge amount of missiles, and only a fraction are spun-up, fueled, and ready to fire at any period of time. Rogue strikes and lone launches could go by unnoticed, but they would almost certainly be intercepted by the layered ABM system in place. A mass barrage would be spotted and interdicted. The retaliation from a successful attack would also likely be brutal.
 
Secretary Clinton drew the redline. Once the chemicals are mixed if we attempt to destroy them Sarin will be released and thousands will die. I am affraid it is to late to do much of anything about this now. This is not good. The Syrians next move will most likely be to move these weapons to populated areas. Some of them are already in populated areas. If you attempt to take them out it will result in releasing the Sarin. The time to act has passed. The time to pray is upon us.
 
SgtRock said:
Secretary Clinton drew the redline. Once the chemicals are mixed if we attempt to destroy them Sarin will be released and thousands will die. I am affraid it is to late to do much of anything about this now. This is not good. The Syrians next move will most likely be to move these weapons to populated areas. Some of them are already in populated areas. If you attempt to take them out it will result in releasing the Sarin. The time to act has passed. The time to pray is upon us.
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Why would thousands die? There are a huge amount of variables at play in such a strike, and I think you may not appreciate the difficulty of chemical dispersal. An air strike at a munitions base, or on an artillery emplacement is almost certainly not going to kill thousands, it probably wouldn't even pervade the entire base. Also only limited amount of the bombs have been 'mixed' most are in pre-binary state, and those that are would probably not have a ton of time to aerosolize in the event of a bombing even if the membrane is broken.

I also don't think they will use these weapons, if they use them, on a mass populated area. The first strike, if there is one, will look more like Egyptian usage in Yemen, not Halabja.
 
There is a worse scenario--they could fire it into Turkey at US troops. It isn't like Turkey and Syria haven't been clashing already.
 
Sherman123 said:
I would be stunned if he used them on Israel. These are my thoughts:

Assad and his cohorts in Damascus are attempting to gauge Western, and in this case more importantly regional reaction to their overt preparations for demonstrative chemical strikes. While simultaneously exploring the possibility of seeking asylum, they can demonstrate their capacity to deal mass violence which is a powerful negotiating tool for calling off the international hounds. However it would be a mistake to view this solely as political theater, the Damascus government clearly envisions several scenarios and ways in which usage could be plausibly useful:

A. The government I believe has made the calculus that a demonstrative use of chemical weapons that inflicts 40-100+ casualties is unlikely to incur immediate international military action, and that US deterrence thresholds are as the past year of fighting has proved, extremely elastic. I doubt Assad believes that the President will commit to immediately military action on one, or even two or three such strikes alone.

B. In using these weapons they can try and strike at the all important political-military link between the Syrian rebel groups and their civil base. They probably hope such terror bombings would slow the flow of recruits to rebel groups, and limit operational cooperation in areas likely to come under bombardment (i.e. suburban areas and environ towns which are crucial to the rebels but easy politically and technically to target effectively).

C. It will stiffen the back of Assad loyalists who may be convinced that the regime is not preparing to flee and abandon them to their fates. If the regime hopes as some have speculated to create a rump state in Latakia, the usage and transference of such weapons could be solid boost.

Now, obviously usage brings about some severe problems for the government. First of all it absolutely abrogates any hope of a negotiated exit or settlement even with Assad deposed, the war would be to the finish. Secondly it opens Assad up to the risk of internal political overthrow from leadership cadres who see this as tainting their ability to function and build alliances in a post-Assad Syria. Third it poisons the waters with key allies like Russia and Iran and while asylum would still almost certainly be accepted (from Iran) the continued high level military backing might become untenable. Fourth and most severely is the risk of international military action, as I said I think they can get away with limited use without bringing this about in a quick fashion (it might lay the groundwork for future intervention) but a mass casualty attack or international attacks ends this security, so does transference to paramilitary third parties like Hezbollah.

Just as a side note, aside from the political reasons not to fire at Israel, it is probably technically extremely difficult to effectively target Israel. Assad does not have a huge amount of missiles, and only a fraction are spun-up, fueled, and ready to fire at any period of time. Rogue strikes and lone launches could go by unnoticed, but they would almost certainly be intercepted by the layered ABM system in place. A mass barrage would be spotted and interdicted. The retaliation from a successful attack would also likely be brutal.
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You do realize we are talking about a genocidal mad man who is already responsible for murdering his own people including many women and children. I think at this point Assad has resigned himself and will most likely attempt to go out in a blaze. Rebels are closing in on Damascus and Assad is a cornerd tyrant with an arsenal of death. Like I said its time to pray.
 
SgtRock said:
You do realize we are talking about a genocidal mad man who is already responsible for murdering his own people including many women and children. I think at this point Assad has resigned himself and will most likely attempt to go out in a blaze. Rebels are closing in on Damascus and Assad is a cornerd tyrant with an arsenal of death. Like I said its time to pray.
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He is a calculated dictator who as yet has not killed nearly as many people as he could if he wanted to. If he decided to behave like Saddam Hussein he could do so, but he hasn't yet. Which implies a level of rationalism about how he deploys the power at his disposal, because he has not yet abandoned hope for regaining control or at least balancing the scales, moreover there are a variety of internal and international variables weighing upon his decision making process.
 
Sherman123 said:
Why would thousands die? There are a huge amount of variables at play in such a strike, and I think you may not appreciate the difficulty of chemical dispersal. An air strike at a munitions base, or on an artillery emplacement is almost certainly not going to kill thousands, it probably wouldn't even pervade the entire base. Also only limited amount of the bombs have been 'mixed' most are in pre-binary state, and those that are would probably not have a ton of time to aerosolize in the event of a bombing even if the membrane is broken.

I also don't think they will use these weapons, if they use them, on a mass populated area. The first strike, if there is one, will look more like Egyptian usage in Yemen, not Halabja.
Click to expand...

How do you know how many munitions have been mixed. Are you a member of the SIS, CIA etc? My job in the military involved defense from chemical weapon attacks. You have to realize that some of these weapons are already in highly populated areas. One of the characteristics of GB is its low persistance time. This allows occupation of areas where the chemical has been deployed in a relitivly short time, approximatley 1 to 8 hours depending on terrain,wind and tempeture. However GB is toxic in a very low doses. It can be delivered in many ways from land mines to missles. Like I said before a single artillery round can kill thousands.
 
Sherman123 said:
He is a calculated dictator who as yet has not killed nearly as many people as he could if he wanted to. If he decided to behave like Saddam Hussein he could do so, but he hasn't yet. Which implies a level of rationalism about how he deploys the power at his disposal, because he has not yet abandoned hope for regaining control or at least balancing the scales, moreover there are a variety of internal and international variables weighing upon his decision making process.
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You sound as if you know the man personally. You are a member of the SIS arn't you? lol... Well I hope you are right. Its hard to be optimistic when it comes to a man who is killing his own people.
 
SgtRock said:
How do you know how many munitions have been mixed. Are you a member of the SIS, CIA etc? My job in the military involved defense from chemical weapon attacks. You have to realize that some of these weapons are already in highly populated areas. One of the characteristics of GB is its low persistance time. This allows occupation of areas where the chemical has been deployed in a relitivly short time, approximatley 1 to 8 hours depending on terrain,wind and tempeture. However GB is toxic in a very low doses. It can be delivered in many ways from land mines to missles. Like I said before a single artillery round can kill thousands.
Click to expand...

Well we know they haven't mixed a huge amount, because we have a fair approximation of how much of the stockpile has been moved, and how many delivery systems they have in place. Most reports and open source analysis indicates that either a few hundred shells and a few score bombs at most have been readied. Also you don't put too many together, because once you put them in shells (not warheads) the risk of membrane break increases and over a relatively short time the gases will become 'inert' and the shell becomes unusable, something like 40-80 days.

Moreover a single artillery round cannot kill thousands, most likely it can if properly placed kill a few score people. The amount of agent you have in a shell is not going to be huge, and its going to diminish dramatically with dispersal, and as you mentioned it has a low persistence period. Look at Halabja, the Iraqi's used everything from Sarin to VX in huge quantities, but they didn't bother with chemical shelling, they used low flying air power for mass aerial dispersal which is the only effective way to get a large kill zone for most wielders of chemical weapons. So the Iraqi's launched something on the order of 14-20 successive waves of aerial bombardments, using planes and helicopters to dump literally tons of gas during the bombardment, perhaps/probably hundreds of tons.
 
SgtRock said:
You sound as if you know the man personally. You are a member of the SIS arn't you? lol... Well I hope you are right. Its hard to be optimistic when it comes to a man who is killing his own people.
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The SIS? Is that MI6? But I'm not being optimistic, I'm just trying to lay out how I see things happening and I don't view it positively by any means.
 
Just to give another perspective Iraq used about 2,500-3,000 tons of synthesized chemical gases during the war, in tens of thousands of shells and bombs. Over the roughly eight years of deployment, most of which came towards the end, some 10,000-20,000 Iranian soldiers were reported killed. Chemical warfare is terrifying, and extremely deadly, but it requires layered and heavy use to achieve mass casualties and effects, and for unsophisticated regimes an ample amount of luck.
 
Sherman123 said:
Well we know they haven't mixed a huge amount, because we have a fair approximation of how much of the stockpile has been moved, and how many delivery systems they have in place. Most reports and open source analysis indicates that either a few hundred shells and a few score bombs at most have been readied. Also you don't put too many together, because once you put them in shells (not warheads) the risk of membrane break increases and over a relatively short time the gases will become 'inert' and the shell becomes unusable, something like 40-80 days.

Moreover a single artillery round cannot kill thousands, most likely it can if properly placed kill a few score people. The amount of agent you have in a shell is not going to be huge, and its going to diminish dramatically with dispersal, and as you mentioned it has a low persistence period. Look at Halabja, the Iraqi's used everything from Sarin to VX in huge quantities, but they didn't bother with chemical shelling, they used low flying air power for mass aerial dispersal which is the only effective way to get a large kill zone for most wielders of chemical weapons. So the Iraqi's launched something on the order of 14-20 successive waves of aerial bombardments, using planes and helicopters to dump literally tons of gas during the bombardment, perhaps/probably hundreds of tons.
Click to expand...


I disagree if the conditions are right 1 artillery shell of Sarin could kill thousands. Sarin is 30 times more effective than phosgene and 190 times more than chlorine. I work with CL2 at one of the largest water treatment facilities in the States. I know how deadly chlorine gas is. Sarin has a CT-50 of 100. Because of its extreme potency, sarin is lethal to 50 percent of exposed individuals at doses of 100 to 500 mg across the skin, or 50–100 mg/min/m3 by inhalation. Its extremely nasty stuff.
 
SgtRock said:
I disagree if the conditions are right 1 artillery shell of Sarin could kill thousands. Sarin is 30 times more effective than phosgene and 190 times more than chlorine. I work with CL2 at one of the largest water treatment facilities in the States. I know how deadly chlorine gas is. Sarin has a CT-50 of 100. Because of its extreme potency, sarin is lethal to 50 percent of exposed individuals at doses of 100 to 500 mg across the skin, or 50–100 mg/min/m3 by inhalation. Its extremely nasty stuff.
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It isn't about lethality, you are talking about the toxicity of gases under laboratory conditions. In reality the utilization of chemical weapons on a mass scale to inflict mass casualties is difficult and consumes large amounts of chemical stockpiles to effect it. Again you can look to Iraq (and Iranian counter strikes) as excellent examples of this. It should tell you something that the Iraqi's had to dump 50 tons of VX at Halabja on conjunction with everything else they used, AND with an aerosol dispersal mixed with low flying bombardment to get the casualties they did. A single shell of Sarin fired into a neighborhood in Aleppo would kill a few dozen people if that, it might kill less depending on circumstances.
 
I'm not saying Assad couldn't if he wanted to, go for a Halabja redux, but it would be a more coordinated and large scale attack. You'd probably have to use more weapons than they have allegedly prepared. At this stage it is a terror weapon, useful primarily for ostensible its strategic value.
 
SgtRock said:
Secretary Clinton drew the redline. Once the chemicals are mixed if we attempt to destroy them Sarin will be released and thousands will die. I am affraid it is to late to do much of anything about this now. This is not good. The Syrians next move will most likely be to move these weapons to populated areas. Some of them are already in populated areas. If you attempt to take them out it will result in releasing the Sarin. The time to act has passed. The time to pray is upon us.
Click to expand...

If we strike with FAE weapons most of the agent will be burned up. There will be more collateral damage from the strike than there will be from the release of the agent.

And, while we're at it; didn't Obama swear up, down and sideways that if Assad made a move with the NBC weapons he would kick som ass?
 
The thing with Chemical Munitions.

They are usually 'MIXED' during deployment. The motion of the round after being fired mixes the chemical components allowing them to be activated....

This way chemical munitions can be stockpiled without having to worry about a short shelf-life.
 
As a former CBRN NCO who is working on going back active duty as we speak.... this both terrifies and excites me......
 
Deja vu..... another Colin Powell at the UN moment...
 
Blue_State said:
to give away to France and China...Muhahahahaha
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I know we didn't get any oil or contracts for extraction, transport, processing and other logistics. I was just having fun with the "Colin Powel!!11!!" comment. Some people, anything that happens they think back to the worst possible allusion and quickly pronounce "It's that again!". It's a silly tactic, but I see it often.

Just like the Native Americans!
Just like Hiroshima!
Just like Colin Powel!

The hate is tangable. Like, anything to protect Assad. No matter how ridiculous and ignoring of world consensus, the US is the bad guy and the mass murdering Islamic dictators are innocent.

If someone cannot figure out the motive for such nonsense, then I don't know what's wrong with them.
 
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ecofarm said:
I know we didn't get any oil or contracts for extraction, transport, processing and other logistics. I was just having fun with the "Colin Powel!!11!!" comment. Some people, anything that happens they think back to the worst possible allusion and quickly pronounce "It's that again!". It's a silly tactic, but I see it often.

Just like the Native Americans!
Just like Hiroshima!
Just like Colin Powel!

The hate is tangable. Like, anything to protect Assad. No matter how ridiculous and ignoring of world consensus, the US is the bad guy and the mass murdering Islamic dictators are innocent.

If someone cannot figure out the motive for such nonsense, then I don't know what's wrong with them.
Click to expand...

I was jumping on your joke. Adding to it. Kind of like a comedic sidekick.
 
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