Business Activity In US Shrinks For First Time Since 2009

Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in September for the first time in three years, adding to signs manufacturing will contribute less to the economic recovery.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer fell 49.7 this month from 53 in August. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

Uncertainties surrounding domestic fiscal policy and weakening economies in Europe and China may prevent companies from adding to headcount and ramping up production. Slow growth prospects prompted the Federal Reserve to announce more accommodation measures earlier this month in a bid to help spur the three-year-old expansion.

The median estimate of 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the gauge would fall to 52.8. Projections ranged from 50 to 54.5.

The Chicago group’s gauge of new orders dropped to 47.4 from 54.8. The employment measure declined to 52, the weakest since March 2010, from 57.1 the prior month. The production gauge fell to 55.4 from August’s reading of 57.4, today’s report showed.

Factory activity in the New York area contracted more than forecast in August, to its lowest level in more than three years, and production in the Philadelphia region shrank for a fifth month, Fed reports showed this month.

Household spending increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the lowest in a year, Commerce Department data show. Companies’ spending on equipment and software rose at a 4.8 pace over the same period, the weakest since the third quarter of 2009.

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The recent release of the final estimate of Q2 GDP, and the September's Durable Goods Report, confirmed that indeed the economy was far weaker than the headline releases, and media spin, suggested.

While I am not yet prepared to say that we are in a recession now, as opposed to the ECRI and John Hussman, my continued estimation is still that it is likely to occur in early 2013, however, at the current run rate of the data it could well be in the fourth quarter of this year. What is important, however, is that the evidence of the potential onset of recession is mounting.

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The Prof said:

Business Activity in U.S. Shrinks for First Time Since 2009 - Bloomberg

thursday: Revised Q2 GDP: 1.25% - Business Insider

things are getting worse---fast

incomes, wages, joblessness, longterm, food stamps, poverty, disability, despair, hopelessness, malaise---everything that should be up is down, everything that should be down is up

perhaps the numbers are lying?

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The jobless rate probably rose in September as employers kept a lid on hiring, showing why Federal Reserve policy makers have zeroed in on shoring up the U.S. labor market, economists said before a report this week.

The rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in August, according to the median forecast of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg before Oct. 5 figures from the Labor Department. Payrolls increased by 115,000 in September, less than the 139,000 average over the first eight months of the year, the report may also show.

Persistent joblessness may curb wage gains and limit consumer spending, representing another impediment to an economy facing a slowdown in manufacturing as global demand cools and businesses curtail investments. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues at the central bank pledged this month to keep pumping money into financial markets until employment picks up.

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Weakening demand is forcing new and accelerated cost reductions at companies from Bank of America and Hewlett-Packard to Staples and Eastman Kodak, dimming the outlook for an already struggling U.S. labor market.

Even as consumer confidence and housing show signs of recovering, sales for businesses in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.9 percent from a year earlier in July through September, the second consecutive quarterly drop and biggest decline since 2009, according to analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. A 1.2 percent gain projected for October-December still is smaller than the 5.4 percent rise in this year’s first three months.

A global slowdown triggered by Europe’s debt crisis is exacerbated by the potential impact of the impending U.S. fiscal cliff of changes in taxes and government spending. All this is pushing finance chiefs back to the drawing board, with some limiting hiring and investment and others slashing more jobs than originally announced. Such belt-tightening will dominate employment prospects for the rest of the year.

Partly because of the retrenching, companies in the S&P 500, excluding financial institutions and utilities, held near- record cash totaling $1.01 trillion in the first three months of 2012, S&P data show.

Bank of America, the second-biggest U.S. lender, is speeding up a 2011 plan to trim $8 billion in expenses and more than 30,000 positions. Hewlett-Packard, the world’s largest personal-computer maker, will slash 29,000 jobs instead of the 27,000 it announced in May. Staples is accelerating its shutdown of 15 American stores as consumers shift to using fewer traditional office products such as folders.

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For those reasons, it’s more than a little frightening that we’re seeing a spate of depressing numbers that could signal a recession on the horizon — or that one is already here. On Thursday the Commerce Department revised down its estimate of second-quarter GDP growth to 1.3% from an already sluggish 1.7%. If that weren’t bad enough, the Department also reported that orders of durable goods – long-lasting pieces of equipment like airplanes or heavy machinery – fell 13.2% in August. And Friday, the Project Management Institute was out with a survey which showed that manufacturing activity in the Chicago region was contracting, surprising many analysts. While it’s unwise to read too much into any one of these data, the three in succession are unsettling.

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The Prof said:

today: Bernanke makes strong defense of Fed policies - Yahoo! Finance

sept 14: Egan-Jones downgrades U.S. rating on QE3 move - MarketWatch

just another ostrich

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Ray410 said:

The fact of business activity shrinking would be a normal result of a country sinking into permanent 3rd world tribalism without a common language or culture.

Who could be silly enough to think that there would ever be jobs for 80 million uneducated, poverty stricken Mexicans and blacks, all with huge families and countless pregnant babies with more babies on the way? Most don't have the ability to even learn English, let alone read and write.

What jobs could they ever do? The fact is they were not imported to work and contribute. The liberals imported them to destroy, to be government focused dependents, just like the liberals have done to the blacks.

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