• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points

LowDown

LowDown

Curmudgeon
DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 19, 2012
Messages
14,185
Reaction score
8,768
Location
Houston
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points - First Read

The internals of this poll are revealing. 46% are Democrats and 35% are Republicans. At the height of Obama fever in 2008 the polls had a split favoring Democrats by 7%, and now, after 3 years of economic suffering, somehow the split is favoring Democrats by 11%?

Note that in a poll with 11% more Democrats than Republicans Obama leads by only 6%. Moreover, Obamacare gets only 40% favorable in a poll with 46% Democrats.

Why are they putting a poll out that can be debunked in about 5 seconds?
 
LowDown said:
NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points - First Read

The internals of this poll are revealing. 46% are Democrats and 35% are Republicans. At the height of Obama fever in 2008 the polls had a split favoring Democrats by 7%, and now, after 3 years of economic suffering, somehow the split is favoring Democrats by 11%?

Note that in a poll with 11% more Democrats than Republicans Obama leads by only 6%. Moreover, Obamacare gets only 40% favorable in a poll with 46% Democrats.

Why are they putting a poll out that can be debunked in about 5 seconds?
Click to expand...

One, there are about 72 million registered Democrats versus about 55 million registered Republicans, so an accurate poll sample SHOULD show more Democrats than Republicans. And two, virtually all polls employ weighting to adjust the sample pool to national statistics.

Why do conservatives always attack poll samples when they don't like the results, but never attack them when they do like the results?
 
AdamT said:
One, there are about 72 million registered Democrats versus about 55 million registered Republicans, so an accurate poll sample SHOULD show more Democrats than Republicans. And two, virtually all polls employ weighting to adjust the sample pool to national statistics.

Why do conservatives always attack poll samples when they don't like the results, but never attack them when they do like the results?
Click to expand...

Same could be said of the democrats. But as always you dont want to see both sides.
 
muciti said:
Same could be said of the democrats. But as always you dont want to see both sides.
Click to expand...

The same could be said, but it wouldn't be true. As always you insist on two sides being equal when they aren't.
 
AdamT said:
The same could be said, but it wouldn't be true. As always you insist on two sides being equal when they aren't.
Click to expand...

Really? If a poll comes out that liberals or democrats dont agree with they dont attack the poll? You sure about that?

(hint the above is a very loaded question)
 
muciti said:
Really? If a poll comes out that liberals or democrats dont agree with they dont attack the poll? You sure about that?

(hint the above is a very loaded question)
Click to expand...

No, I'm not saying that it never happens, but in my experience conservatives are far more likely to attack the pool sample of any poll they don't like than liberals are.
 
AdamT said:
Why do conservatives always attack poll samples when they don't like the results, but never attack them when they do like the results?
Click to expand...

Going to imagine that it's for similar reasons that liberals do it...

Because people rarely are consistent in anything except the notion that they want what helps them.

Oh wait...you're basing this off your exceptionanl and totally unbiased and objective "experience" with liberals and conservatives. Well, lordy me...how dare I question that. Yes, obviously you speak nothing but absolute fact...damn those rotten conservatives, damn'em to hell.

:roll:

In regards to the story, it's interesting but not surprising that the negative tones of both camps is having a negative impact on themselves as well as the other side. 2008 showed a bit what the power of a very positive campaign can do for the American people. While your most partisans and your very politically active individuals like the slugfest...a lot of your average americans are ones I think that frankly tire of the mudslinging.

The horse race being close doesn't surprise me too much and is something I expect until at least the debates. The economy numbers are probably the most interesting take away from the article however.
 
Last edited:
LowDown said:
NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points - First Read

The internals of this poll are revealing. 46% are Democrats and 35% are Republicans. At the height of Obama fever in 2008 the polls had a split favoring Democrats by 7%, and now, after 3 years of economic suffering, somehow the split is favoring Democrats by 11%?

Note that in a poll with 11% more Democrats than Republicans Obama leads by only 6%. Moreover, Obamacare gets only 40% favorable in a poll with 46% Democrats.

Why are they putting a poll out that can be debunked in about 5 seconds?
Click to expand...

No poll is perfect, which is why each one has a margin of error. Since the margin of error is 3.9 percent, the poll is most likely valid, and not an outlier, and could also be interpreted as Romney slightly ahead and still within the margin of error.
 
I'm pretty sure NBC already reported that Obama won in a landslide the next election. Saw it on the "news" last night actually, it was right after they reported that the TEA Party was solely responsible for global warming and that James Holmes is actually Sarah Palin in a wig.

AdamT said:
One, there are about 72 million registered Democrats versus about 55 million registered Republicans, so an accurate poll sample SHOULD show more Democrats than Republicans.
Click to expand...

Only 28 states allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote, I'd be interested to know the source of your statistic.

"As of 2010, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. By 2011 Gallup found that Americans identifying as independents had risen to 40 percent."
Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Polls don't mean much, especially this far out. Especially biased and skewed polls put forth by hyper-partisan "news" outlets. Only 40% of likely voters approve of Obama's job performance, yet somehow 55% of likely voters plan to vote for him? Really? So 15% of voters hate the job he's doing, but they're going to vote for him anyway? Ah.

The sad part is, a lot of NBS viewers swallow this narrative without ever giving it (or math) a second thought. MSNBS has become a parody of itself, lately they make FoxNews look like PBS. Not to go off topic, but one of the morons at MSNBS had an explanation for the Aurora shootings: Racism. I'm not kidding.

AdamT said:
Why do conservatives always attack poll samples when they don't like the results, but never attack them when they do like the results?
Click to expand...
"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%."
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™
 
Zyphlin said:
Oh wait...you're basing this off your exceptionanl and totally unbiased and objective "experience" with liberals and conservatives. Well, lordy me...how dare I question that. Yes, obviously you speak nothing but absolute fact...damn those rotten conservatives, damn'em to hell.
Click to expand...

Yes, well, I can only base it on my personal "observations" (Zyph air quotes added). :roll:
 
jerry7 said:
You need to either start reading your links before you post them or stop using Wikipedia. According to your link there were 72 million registered dems....in 2004! LOL. As of 2011 it was down to 42 million. Of course it is Wikipedia. Maybe somebody will go in and change it again before you read this reply.
Click to expand...

I originally got the numbers from a different site but couldn't locate it. In any case, BOTH parties' registrations have declined since 2004 ... if you read the link. And in fact, the proportion of Democrats to Republicans actually INCREASED as a result (1.4:1 versus 1.3:1). So, if a poll *only* has 11% more registered Democrats than Republicans, then Democrats are actually UNDERrepresented in the poll relative to the population of registered voters. Oops!
 
AdamT said:
One, there are about 72 million registered Democrats versus about 55 million registered Republicans, so an accurate poll sample SHOULD show more Democrats than Republicans. And two, virtually all polls employ weighting to adjust the sample pool to national statistics.
Click to expand...

Obviously you didn’t take the time to read the poll and understand the demographics mentioned in the OP. Do you think descriptions like ‘not very strong Democrat’, ‘independent/lean Democrat’, ‘not very strong Republican’, ‘independent/lean Republican’ (page 26) sound like ‘registered’?...another FAIL

…try again.:lamo
 
AdamT said:
I originally got the numbers from a different site but couldn't locate it. In any case, BOTH parties' registrations have declined since 2004 ... if you read the link. And in fact, the proportion of Democrats to Republicans actually INCREASED as a result (1.4:1 versus 1.3:1). So, if a poll *only* has 11% more registered Democrats than Republicans, then Democrats are actually UNDERrepresented in the poll relative to the population of registered voters. Oops!
Click to expand...

According to the Pew Research Center (an actual, legitimate source) democratic registration is down 4% since 2008 while republicans are down 1% and independents up 6%. If you include independents who are leaners its dems 48%, reps 40%. This is down from a 15 point democrat lead in 2008. Democrats held a 15 point advantage in 2008, exit polling revealed 7% more dems voted and Obama won by 7 points. This was with a crazed democratic electorate. The enthusiasm is gone. It is very likely that more republicans will vote this time, similar to 2010. There is no way that a poll overrepresenting democrats by 11% that gives Obama a 6 point lead is good news for Obama. In fact it is a disaster. This poll is an attempt to shape the news, not reflect it. It is designed to depress republican votes by attempting to convince people that an Obama win is inevitable. It's not going to work this time.
Section 9: Trends in Party Affiliation | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
 
jerry7 said:
According to the Pew Research Center (an actual, legitimate source) democratic registration is down 4% since 2008 while republicans are down 1% and independents up 6%. If you include independents who are leaners its dems 48%, reps 40%. This is down from a 15 point democrat lead in 2008. Democrats held a 15 point advantage in 2008, exit polling revealed 7% more dems voted and Obama won by 7 points. This was with a crazed democratic electorate. The enthusiasm is gone. It is very likely that more republicans will vote this time, similar to 2010. There is no way that a poll overrepresenting democrats by 11% that gives Obama a 6 point lead is good news for Obama. In fact it is a disaster. This poll is an attempt to shape the news, not reflect it. It is designed to depress republican votes by attempting to convince people that an Obama win is inevitable. It's not going to work this time.
Section 9: Trends in Party Affiliation | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Click to expand...

As I mentioned above, this is still entirely beside the point. Every major polling firm applies weighting to the pool to bring it in line with national averages. That is why these sorts of attacks are invalid.

It's funny that you're leveling this criticism at a Wall Street Journal poll, given that the WSJ is a right-leaning, Rupert Murdoch-owned newspaper.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom