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Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends power

apdst

apdst

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Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Good for Egypt!
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Egypt's military has played a strong to dominant role in politics and that role is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Hence, even if the Muslim Brotherhood won the Presidency, its ability to radically alter Egypt's policies and relationships would be limited.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

apdst said:
I really hate to say I told you so, but...

I figgered this was going to happen. It's trully sad, but it's the reality of the region.
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This is in triplicate............
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

OMG what a total shock! The people with the guns are still in charge!
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

We should invade them, I'm sure there is oil somewhere around there we can justify it for.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

I'd say this shows the divisions in Egypt run much deeper than anyone thought. I don't think this move really even solidifies SCAF's power. It almost doesn't matter who wins the election at this point. The whole thing is unstable.

It's difficult to see where this is leading. Hopefully not an Algeria-esque civil war...
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Excon said:
Good for Egypt!
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:shock:
How is this at all good?
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

TheDemSocialist said:
:shock:
How is this at all good?
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Well, an Islamist controlled parliament + presidency is hardly good either. I don't think anyone is in much of a position to predict whether this will be good or bad in the long run. It's too unclear what will happen from this point. All it really tells us is that the transition is not going to be as quick and painless as everyone hoped.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

TheDemSocialist said:
:shock:
How is this at all good?
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:shrug: it seems the alternative is war with Israel.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

cpwill said:
:shrug: it seems the alternative is war with Israel.
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Yeah because Egypt is definitely in a position to fight a war...
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Jetboogieman said:
Yeah because Egypt is definitely in a position to fight a war...
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Absolutely. Allah commands it and will ensure victory.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

cpwill said:
Absolutely. Allah commands it and will ensure victory.
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So in actuality you have no evidence of this at all besides perhaps some big talk from small people who have yet to be in control of any armed forces to speak of.

Not to mention lacking money or resources for a war.

Not to mention having to move a hell of a lot equipment, vehicles, ordinance and troops through the Sinai desert which isn't exactly going to go unoticed.

Not to mention they can't even sort their own people out yet, let alone try and sort out Israel.

I could go on but these three points are enough that even if some radicial fundamentalist seized power in Egypt and tried to start a war he wouldn't even get that effort off the ground.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

The Egyptian Army never really relinquished control. They simply lent it to the fledgling "democracy", and now the Islamic brotherhood have too many seats and a chance at the Presidency, that's too close to be comfortable, and the Army has closed Parliament down.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

donsutherland1 said:
Egypt's military has played a strong to dominant role in politics and that role is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Hence, even if the Muslim Brotherhood won the Presidency, its ability to radically alter Egypt's policies and relationships would be limited.
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Egypt's military with the strong support of the US Military and US foreign aid in inumerable CIA projects. Egypt will be just like one of our Latin American "banana republics" where we make sure the management of the country is in the Corporate "clique." It will all be "Mighty Wurlitzered" to sound like a strategic imperitave to support the new military dictatorship. In fact, it is just an attempt to maintain the same management.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Jetboogieman said:
So in actuality you have no evidence of this at all besides perhaps some big talk from small people who have yet to be in control of any armed forces to speak of.
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On the contrary, they have been in possession of an armed force for many years. They've been using it to conduct low-level warfare against Israel. A portion of their armed force left a couple of decades ago and merged to help form another armed force you may be familiar with.

Not to mention lacking money or resources for a war.
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There you are wrong. They simply (probably) lack the resources to win.

Not to mention having to move a hell of a lot equipment, vehicles, ordinance and troops through the Sinai desert which isn't exactly going to go unoticed.
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Oh yeah. Their ability to score conventional tactical surprise would be roughly nil - especially with the US probably sharing satellite imagery. Their ability to ramp up attacks within Israel and from Gaza as a shaping mechanism, however, would not be.

I could go on but these three points are enough that even if some radicial fundamentalist seized power in Egypt and tried to start a war he wouldn't even get that effort off the ground.
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Ah. You think that he would rather be dethroned (and probably killed) by his own party? Egyptian Islamists have an established policy concerning national leaders who fail them on Israel.



What you are arguing is actually a mirror argument for one of the most famous Intelligence Failures of the 20th Century: Egypt Will Not Attack Over Yom Kippur Because She Lacks The Ability. Egypt did lack the ability to launch a successful assault - unfortunately the incentives for Egyptian leadership overrode that. The power of the human mind to convince itself of what it wishes to believe is powerful; "Realists" make a critical error when they think of nations as thinking entities that will seek their own self-interest, and they make another when they engage in mirror imaging. All your points make perfect sense... to a generally secular Westerner. To a Believer, they are immaterial.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Manc Skipper said:
The Egyptian Army never really relinquished control. They simply lent it to the fledgling "democracy", and now the Islamic brotherhood have too many seats and a chance at the Presidency, that's too close to be comfortable, and the Army has closed Parliament down.
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I wonder if they explicitly see themselves as playing a similar function to Turkey's military?
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

cpwill said:
I wonder if they explicitly see themselves as playing a similar function to Turkey's military?
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They likely see themselves as guarantors of Egypt's stability and interests. They also understand that it's easy for outsiders to advocate for "democracy" that could lead to radicals gaining power, as those outsiders won't have to live with the consequences of such an outcome. That's not the same for Egypt's people. The generals fully understand that the rise of a radical regime would ultimately be harmful to Egypt's interests and people. Not surprisingly, whomever wins the Presidency will have limited powers.

From Reuters:

Egypt's Islamists claimed a lead on Monday in vote-counting for the presidential election but the generals who have run the country since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak issued new rules that made clear real power remains with the army.

A decree from the ruling military council, published as the count got under way on Sunday, spelled out only limited powers for the new head of state and reclaimed for itself the lawmaking prerogatives held by the Islamist-led parliament which the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) dissolved last week.
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Generals guard Egypt power as Islamists claim lead | Reuters

In other words, there will likely be no radical turn. Instead, Egypt will likely remain committed to a moderate course and one that includes peace with Israel. Such an outcome would be compatible with U.S. interests in the region.

One can imagine worse outcomes than this. Given what happened in Pakistan following U.S. pressure that forced President Musharraf from office--the evolution of a semi-reliable partner into a generally hostile actor--I'm not going to complain if the military assumes for itself the role of a guarantor of moderation. Hence, at least for now, I will reserve judgment on the military's recent decisions. Having said that, I do hope that basic freedoms for Egypt's people will be protected.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

cpwill said:
Absolutely. Allah commands it and will ensure victory.
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Tell that to Azerbaijan, who supplies the majority of Israel's oil via Turkey.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

That Arab spring is something else huh? Yeah, the Muslim Brotherhood will sort it all out for the better.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

cpwill said:
:shrug: it seems the alternative is war with Israel.
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Please explain how you came to this conclusion.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Jetboogieman said:
So in actuality you have no evidence of this at all besides perhaps some big talk from small people who have yet to be in control of any armed forces to speak of.

Not to mention lacking money or resources for a war.

Not to mention having to move a hell of a lot equipment, vehicles, ordinance and troops through the Sinai desert which isn't exactly going to go unoticed.

Not to mention they can't even sort their own people out yet, let alone try and sort out Israel.

I could go on but these three points are enough that even if some radicial fundamentalist seized power in Egypt and tried to start a war he wouldn't even get that effort off the ground.
Click to expand...

I guess the next thing you're going to try to convince us of, is that it hasn't happened before, much less happened, twice.
 
Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

apdst said:
I guess the next thing you're going to try to convince us of, is that it hasn't happened before, much less happened, twice.
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Well.... the last time Egypt attacked Israel was just shy of 40 years ago... so... um... I dunno I live in todays world.

And well hey, I have been known to be wrong from time to time but here's something I am not wrong about.

If Egypt tries, Israel will wipe them out.

But I can't help get the feeling people like you would love nothing more than for Egypt to attack Israel for two reasons.

1) You harbor anti-Islamic sentiment, so you'll get to make some hay out of that.

2) Then you'll be able to say "Yeah Obama you should have... um... stopped mubaruk from being Overthrown! You handed Egypt over to the Islamists!"
 
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Re: Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends powe

Jetboogieman said:
Well.... the last time Egypt attacked Israel was just shy of 40 years ago... so... um... I dunno I live in todays world.

And well hey, I have been known to be wrong from time to time but here's something I am not wrong about.

If Egypt tries, Israel will wipe them out.

But I can't help get the feeling people like you would love nothing more than for Egypt to attack Israel for two reasons.

1) You harbor anti-Islamic sentiment, so you'll get to make some hay out of that.
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SHoulda seen the, "yooz-a-racist", bull**** coming. It's really sad that that's the only argument that you can come up with. You make all these claims and don't have a single piece of evidence to support your comments.



2) Then you'll be able to say "Yeah Obama you should have... um... stopped mubaruk from being Overthrown! You handed Egypt over to the Islamists!"
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That's exactly what he should have done and that's exactly what he did. Obama didn't do anything for the Egyptian people. If anything, he made their lives worse and put millions of other lives in jeopardy
 
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