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Krugman Wishes He Were Wrong Amid EU Austerity Backlash

the only problem with this is that governments - well at least that of the USA - continue the deficit spending once the economy rebounds
rather than retiring the accumulated debt, we do foolish things like giving more tax breaks to the rich and starting needless wars on the credit card
for a vivid example, notice what we did after clinton left office with a balanced budget

To be fair.. the US has not since WW2 had such a large debt, so it has never been a problem. Now it is. Last time you did have such a debt ratio, you did cut, you did run surpluses (or small deficits under inflation) and your debt ratio did go down.. granted you did grow your way out if it too :)

If you look at Europe, countries with high debt ratios over the last 60 years in Europe, HAVE cut during good times, and paid off debt. Denmark is a good example of that.... Denmark was Greece (without the lax tax collection) in the late 1970s.. on the verge of bankruptcy. Hell the UK was on the verge of bankruptcy as well in the late 1970s and got their act together. It has been done and can be done. That is also in large part, why Europeans relative to Americans are extremely pessimistic when it comes to economics.. a small sneeze in the economy and we stop spending because of fear of the future. It also means that tax cuts often dont work in Europe as they maybe would in the US.. we pay off personal debt or save up with our tax cuts instead of go spend it on a new car.
 
Greece's problem is structural. IF people actually paid their taxes, then there would be a budget surplus. Problem is there is 60+% tax evasion in the country.
Sorry, while a significant problem, that statement is crap.

Greece has one apparently simple option for reining in a budget deficit that has roiled financial markets: Clamp down on widespread tax evasion, which costs the country an estimated €15 billion ($20.5 billion) a year, an amount that would pay off a big chunk of the budget deficit.

Greece Grapples With Tax Evasion - WSJ.com
 
Borrowing and spending your way out of economic downturn, as much as it appeals to the left, is a recipe for disaster. It obviously did not work for socialist governments in Greece or elsewhere. When the money's all gone you wind up passing the hat around for donations. If you don't believe me, try it in your own personal finances. I might give you a buck if I pass by you panhandling and ranting about the injustice of banks on the street. Good luck!

And THAT is your problem and the problem of right wing US politics these days... .

You can NOT compare your personal finances with that of a country.

First off, a country will never run out of money. Taxes will always be paid. Only time that this will stop is during a civil war.. which is not realistic.. Now you can easily run out of money.. no job, no savings means no money. That simply wont happen for a country.

Secondly.. if we start comparing personal finances with that of countries, then you got a huge problem. Most people have debt vs gdp (income) of several hundred percent. Got a mortgage?

The average house price in the US is around 200k...

Latest U.S. Home Prices Show Your Largest Asset May Be Withering Away | The Business Desk with Paul Solman | PBS NewsHour | PBS

It varies depending on region of course.

The annual average income (aka GDP for the single person) was about 47k .. lets be large. and say 50k!... also depends on region..

So you got a mortgage that is on average 200k, and you earn on average 50k.. that is a debt vs GDP of 400%!

Now that must mean that everyone that has a mortgage must be bankrupt.. after all, a country with 100+% debt vs GDP is seen as in serious trouble if not bankrupt these days according to the right wing kitchen table economic theory.
 
Sorry, while a significant problem, that statement is crap.

Greece has one apparently simple option for reining in a budget deficit that has roiled financial markets: Clamp down on widespread tax evasion, which costs the country an estimated €15 billion ($20.5 billion) a year, an amount that would pay off a big chunk of the budget deficit.

Greece Grapples With Tax Evasion - WSJ.com

First off that article is from 2010.

The tax evasion problem varies from 15 to 20 billion a year. The deficit for 2011 came in around 18 billion.

A deficit of a billion or 3 would mean defacto that they are under the 3% deficit target, plus depending on inflation would actually start paying off on the debt. If you talk only on a primary surplus point of view.. then they would have a huge budget surplus.

So no, my statement is not crap.. it is very real and factual. Now there are some that are massive tax dodgers (about 15k people according to some numbers) that owe 45 billion Euros in taxes, and then there is the shadow economy which according to some accounts for 25% to 35% of the overall economy.

Fact is, much of Greeces problems are related to a poor tax collecting system.
 
And THAT is your problem and the problem of right wing US politics these days... .

You can NOT compare your personal finances with that of a country.

First off, a country will never run out of money. Taxes will always be paid. Only time that this will stop is during a civil war.. which is not realistic.. Now you can easily run out of money.. no job, no savings means no money. That simply wont happen for a country.

Secondly.. if we start comparing personal finances with that of countries, then you got a huge problem. Most people have debt vs gdp (income) of several hundred percent. Got a mortgage?

The average house price in the US is around 200k...

Latest U.S. Home Prices Show Your Largest Asset May Be Withering Away | The Business Desk with Paul Solman | PBS NewsHour | PBS

It varies depending on region of course.

The annual average income (aka GDP for the single person) was about 47k .. lets be large. and say 50k!... also depends on region..

So you got a mortgage that is on average 200k, and you earn on average 50k.. that is a debt vs GDP of 400%!

Now that must mean that everyone that has a mortgage must be bankrupt.. after all, a country with 100+% debt vs GDP is seen as in serious trouble if not bankrupt these days according to the right wing kitchen table economic theory.
This too is nonsense. When you are buying a house, you build equity. That is an asset. It is not a difficult concept for most.

Furthermore, your claim that taxes will always be paid, while true, ignores the fact that a country like Greece spends far more than it receives in tax revenue. You don't have to lose your job to go broke. Just spend more than you take in. In that sense, your private finances are not unlike finances on a state level. Try it if you're stupid enough.
 
First off that article is from 2010.

The tax evasion problem varies from 15 to 20 billion a year. The deficit for 2011 came in around 18 billion.
Where the hell do you get this crap from? Billion what?

This is getting a bit silly.
 
Very strange then that Greece went belly-up. For years Greece essentially followed Krugman's ideas (austerity being for suckers) and wound up bankrupt and panhandling in the capitals of Europe.

Exactly. And they most certainly did run out of others people's money, where even with what is equivelent to about 50% write-downs, they still seem to lack the backbone to suck-it-up.

With France reverting back to its noodle-spine self by voting in a Socialist again, the EU is screwed. Soon as you give the European parasites an inch of slack, they take another mile.

They are out of other people's money, a concept that socialists cannot comprehend. We'll watch them feed on each other from here.
 
Wait...so you think austerity is making things better for Greece? Spain? Ireland is the closest thing to a success, but they've only just experienced their first quarter of growth, while we here in the US have had 11 straight quarters of growth. The UK's austerity program has resulted in 4 of their last 6 quarters shrinking and their highest quarter of growth post-recession is a mere 1/3 of what our best quarter has been.

It hasn't been a success anywhere. It results in slow growth or (worse) a return to recession, which (as we know) only makes debt grow due to lower tax receipts. That's why debt is growing in the countries who have instituted these policies instead of shrinking. Stimulate first; then deal with the debt when the economy has recovered. There's a reason why it's been done that way for a long time; because it works.

They have two choices: Austerity or Default. Their third choice, blowing money they do not have, hit that inevitable snag. No one is going to loan them money anymore. You wanna buy a Greek bond right now ? They promise high return. :roll:
 
Where are you getting that Ireland is "doing well"? By what measure?
Ok, relatively they did better. Look at your own chart, their GDP is increasing. It is not in freefall like other European countries. They are also ahead of schedule in their austerity.


The problem with Greece goes back much further, they did not have an economy that really allowed them to be a full member in the Euro along with their inability to collect taxes in a sufficient manner, but the bigger problem was the speculating and over-valuation of Greek properties/businesses. Now they are defaulting from the world-wide recession. It is up to the EU whether it wants to lose a member state (and I think that would be a good thing for Greece to do, they need to regain control over their own currency).
There is always going to be someone irresponsible in a currency union. The euro was a mistake, because it was based on political and not economic reasons. The euro lets countries decide their own wage level, but to be competitive then you need to have a wage level corresponding to your current account. With currencies, then countries who inflate their wage levels will experience inflation. In the EU, it means large current account deficits, and then a complete crash. Because of the euro, the countries can't adjust and the other countries are dependant on them. The euro means that any country being irresponsible can drag the whole region down. Imagine it was France, and not Greece.

Ah, the confidence fairy tale.
Austerity, the reduction of govt spending on top of reduced private demand will always lead to extended, deeper recessions. We already know that.
Fairy tale? Are you kidding me? It is probably the most important factor in an economy. If people have no confidence the economy will recover, then they won't invest. If they believe the politicans are going to mess up the economy, then they won't invest. That is basic economics, and common sense.

Reduction of government spending will of course lead to deeper recessions, but sometimes it is neccecary. Its not like it will never work. As I have pointed out, Ireland was probably in the worst situation, and they are doing ok now. Also, Iceland cut massively over one year. Their GDP dropped massively. But after a year or two it got better. The much better way is to fix the situation fast, so the economy and people can recover. Don't drag it out.
 
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And you got your economics degree from where? Because you're going to have to do a LOT more work than this to try to outdo Krugman.
Can you outdo Milton Freidman? Does that mean I can use Milton Friedman as a reference. He also won a nobel price. He even got it in something that was relevant to what he talked about daily. Krugman got it for trade theories, and even on that field he is weak.

Reality is, they won their price for influencing people, they did not win the price for being good economists. In fact they are both terrible economists, because their agenda prevents them from doing proper research. Secondly, just because you are an economist, does not mean you are correct. Or else, the crisis wouldn't have occoured. A crisis Krugman thought would be a slowdown. He also predicted it to happen in 2006 and kept revising.

To cite Krugman is like citing Bill Maher or Bill O'reilly. That may work on Fox News or Democratic Underground, but not here.

Greece cooked their books, which is why their problem is by far the worst. But austerity has stalled out their economy entirely. The same thing is happening in Spain, which is the Eurozone's third biggest economy and could be a MASSIVE problem for the world economy if they collapse. The only way out of recession is spending.
Really, what about Japan? They did exactly that, they just kept spending and their economy never recovered. Because of the spending, bad debt was never liquidated. And because of the spending, then their public debt went out of control. Also, Ireland and Iceland didn't do badly. What about Latvia? They had a fall of 18% of GDP over one year, current account deficit was at 20%. Unemployment rose to 20%. Now, they have a 6% growth, positive balance sheet, positive current account and an unemployment of 14%.

There needs to be a balance, and we need to look at other factors such as confidence. If you keep lying like Greece and the EU did, then who knows what will happen tomorrow. Two really bad years is better than a miserable decade. It also gives the economy the possibility to recover and rebalance.

History and present conditions prove that austerity is a failure during a recession.

Austerity's Greatest Failure - Matthew O'Brien - Business - The Atlantic
Dumbest article I have ever read. It pretty much goes like this, Uh... US got a lower bond yield than Portugal, and the same as UK, and did no austerity. That means austerity is bad. Why do you cite it? It makes you look dumb.

Also, UK did not do much austerity. Then they wouldn't have got an inflation rate of 5%. That is one of the things Friedman proved. That high inflation was caused by the government inflating the money supply, which is the opposite of austerity.

“It took 30 years of frivolous public spending to bring the country to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%. Two years of severe austerity brought debt to 168% of GDP. Obviously the medicine didn’t work.”

(from this article)
The austerity didn't bring it to 168% of GDP. The crisis did.

There's ample evidence that austerity is a failure as a policy.
I must say your evidence is pretty terrible. Even I can make better arguments than that for your point.

I can tell you what does not work. Having an outside country telling a country what to do, and essentially removing your democracy. Because guess which country is going to be blamed, if it goes haywire? Also, imposed austerity is much tougher to accept. EU shouldn't have tried to control Greece, let the Greeks find out where they want to cut.
 
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............... Reduction of government spending will of course lead to deeper recessions, but sometimes it is neccecary. Its not like it will never work. As I have pointed out, Ireland was probably in the worst situation, and they are doing ok now. Also, Iceland cut massively over one year. Their GDP dropped massively. But after a year or two it got better. The much better way is to fix the situation fast, so the economy and people can recover. Don't drag it out.

I shortened your post, but it was all good. However, the above paragraph is a perfect example to illustrate the leadership needed to get us out of the morass, and how Obama does not possess it.

In the early very late 70's and early '80's, one of the big anchors on the economy was inflation. Reagan took over one heck of a mess, where a big part of the solution meant a continued shrinking of the money supply, working with Volker. A perfect example of staying the course with a remedy that made things tough in the short term, but was the only way to fix things long term. We endured unemployment of about 10.8% in Reagan's second year, as the foundation was mended, and still trusted his leadership. "Stay the Course" was the motto for the '82 midterms, and Reagan did very well all things considered. And in '84 he won like 525 electoral votes. Obama sure ain't doing that this year. He's out on his ass if enough folks wake up.

As noted, Reagan not only oozed confidence and leadership, but he also made the tough decisions that warranted that loyalty.

Not Obama. Obama is like a piss-ant. He is an imposter in the arena of leadership. A joke. An incompetent.
 
You say that like the left has shown *ANY* inclination to adopt austerity measures or entitlement reform. They spend like drunken sailors and any talk about cutting entitlements is met with wails and gnashing of teeth. Stop pretending it's the Tea Party's fault. Who is in power right now? Who is running up the deficit to unheard of levels?

And who started launching wars in the Middle East? Who began wars that were funded by the national credit card?

Let's not forget that everyone is totally fine with that well known tax haven the Cayman Islands existing and not going after it.
 
After 2-3 years of "austerity" programs, Europeans are starting to look at their economies in a different manner.



'Somehow', in some mysterious fashion, the "failed" stimulus programs advocated and pushed for by the Administration have kept the US from falling back into recession. Now that the stimulus funding has ended, we are starting to see the economy here beginning to slow. Naturally those of the Austrian school think that this proves their point that government should spend even less.
The EU is failing because they refuse to accept and tackle the real issue: the euro itself. Sharing a bank account with your neighbors is a preposterous idea, why anyone would consider it financially intelligent or viable is beyond me.
 
And who started launching wars in the Middle East? Who began wars that were funded by the national credit card?

We've been doing it for many decades, meddling in the affairs of the nations of the Middle East to secure our cheap oil supply. No administration is beyond blame. It's no surprise they're pissed off at us, we've had our fingers in their business for a long, long time. When they can't challenge us militarily, politically or financially, what option is left to them? Terrorism. I'm not excusing it, but if the situation were reversed and there was a much more powerful nation pulling the same crap in the U.S. that we've pulled in the Middle East, we'd be doing the same thing to them.
 
Camlon wrote:
Reduction of government spending will of course lead to deeper recessions, but sometimes it is neccecary. Its not like it will never work. As I have pointed out, Ireland was probably in the worst situation, and they are doing ok now. Also, Iceland cut massively over one year. Their GDP dropped massively. But after a year or two it got better. The much better way is to fix the situation fast, so the economy and people can recover. Don't drag it out.

Nice to see a conservative acknowledge that cutting government spending will lead to "deeper recessions"

"It's not like it will never work"? Really - could the commenter provide an example where it did work?

Iceland shut down its three major banks and then told the creditors - "too bad, you ain't gettin' paid". Non-Icelanders who had deposited money in the closed banks were told - "Eh too bad." The value of the Iceland krona crashed on the international market, which then caused the price of imports to skyrocket but it made Iceland a much cheaper place to visit, which brought in money to the nation's economy.

As there are only about 330,000 Icelanders, trying to compare the US economy with its 320,000,000 population, does seem to be a bit off.

Now, think about the difference in the amount of offshore money that is in US banks and the amount that was in Icelandic banks - Do you honestly think that if US banks told those depositors - "Eh, too bad, you lost it" - that there would not be serious repercussions, repercussions that would affect the world's economy?

Ireland: from the Irish Times
Tax take for April down on same month last year
TAX REVENUES in April were 1.3 per cent down on the same month last year at €2.08 billion, according to Department of Finance figures. This, however, was slightly better than expected on budget day.

Government lowers official expectations for growth
THE GOVERNMENT yesterday lowered its expectations for economic activity and employment in 2012 in its first economic forecast since December’s budget.
 
Ok, relatively they did better. Look at your own chart, their GDP is increasing. It is not in freefall like other European countries. They are also ahead of schedule in their austerity.
Let me update you and the chart.......the chart is tracking GNP, not gdp, and the result for the 4th quarter of 2011: -2.2%.



There is always going to be someone irresponsible in a currency union. The euro was a mistake, because it was based on political and not economic reasons. The euro lets countries decide their own wage level, but to be competitive then you need to have a wage level corresponding to your current account. With currencies, then countries who inflate their wage levels will experience inflation. In the EU, it means large current account deficits, and then a complete crash. Because of the euro, the countries can't adjust and the other countries are dependant on them. The euro means that any country being irresponsible can drag the whole region down. Imagine it was France, and not Greece.
.....or Spain...but wait, Spain didn't have the big deficits going into the crash, and they got hit by the housing crash just like Ireland and the US and the UK.....I guess everyone was "irresponsible".


Fairy tale? Are you kidding me? It is probably the most important factor in an economy. If people have no confidence the economy will recover, then they won't invest. If they believe the politicans are going to mess up the economy, then they won't invest. That is basic economics, and common sense.
No, you misunderstand, the idea that "confidence" will overcome the natural tendency for consumers to pull back in hard times is a fairy tale. Consumers can't, their wealth has been severely cut down, income is down, job loss is high.....DEMAND is down. "Confidence" will not overcome these realities.

Reduction of government spending will of course lead to deeper recessions, but sometimes it is neccecary. Its not like it will never work. As I have pointed out, Ireland was probably in the worst situation, and they are doing ok now. Also, Iceland cut massively over one year. Their GDP dropped massively. But after a year or two it got better. The much better way is to fix the situation fast, so the economy and people can recover. Don't drag it out.
Ireland is not going the Iceland route, they can't....apples and oranges. And Iceland did not go into the same levels of govt cut backs, they kept social spending up and it is paying off. As I showed above, Ireland had a lower fourth quarter in 2011.

Now, austerity, as a means to lower debt via govt cuts in spending can work....WHEN AN ECONOMY IS NEAR FULL STEAM.....but if it is already experiencing lower private demand, removing govt spending makes the recovery longer and slower. That is not "neccecary" at all.

Edit to add: The vote on austerity came in last night in France, you lost.
 
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Right -- as the European countries that concentrated on spending cuts fall like dominoes back into recession.

You can only ignore reality for so long, until it comes back to prove you're wrong, by exacting a brutal lesson. Europe and the US will eventually have to pay the piper for our folly.
 
.....or Spain...but wait, Spain didn't have the big deficits going into the crash, and they got hit by the housing crash just like Ireland and the US and the UK.....I guess everyone was "irresponsible".

They actually had a surplus... just pointing that out..
 
Krugman is a liar. I still don't understand why people use him as a reference, especially here. This is not Democratic Underground.

Actually, Greece didn't do any austerity before they run out of money in 2010. They would love to keep going, but who are going to lend them. Even with plenty of money, Greece would just muddle through and there would be no hope of them paying back. However, Germany has implemented a pretty tough austerity program, and they are not doing badly at all. Ireland was in a much worse situation than Greece, they had a very tough austerity program, and they are doing well.

There is no connection. The problem is, Greece is like a drug addict. They are addicted on credit. They don't want to reform, and corruption and tax evasion is widespread. EU officals told us first there was no problem in Greece, then that a bailout will solve all problems, then a second bailout, but they won't default, then they defaulted, but pretended it wasn't a default. In return Greece were supposed to do reforms they had no interest in doing. The expectations were way off, and the market is terrified of Greece right now. Would you put money in a Greek bank? Would you lend them money? Would you start up a business? There is no trust. If the EU hadn't sugar-coated the situation, and let Greece find solutions to their problems on their own, then Greece would probably be out of the recession right now.

The problems in EU is due to lack of trust, and setting wrong expectations. It is not due to austerity.

Ireland is doing well?
chart.png
 
You can only ignore reality for so long, until it comes back to prove you're wrong, by exacting a brutal lesson. Europe and the US will eventually have to pay the piper for our folly.

Of course you do...but paying the piper doesn't need to be a drastic process in the middle of decreased global demand for goods.
 
I just don't understand where the money is coming from for these countries to borrow it. Where is the money suppose to come from? The national lending wells are drying up.
 
You can only ignore reality for so long, until it comes back to prove you're wrong, by exacting a brutal lesson. Europe and the US will eventually have to pay the piper for our folly.
Who is "our", what is the "folly"?

If "our" is the US, you fail to see that all of the EU, Australia and even China had seen a run-up in real estate prices, it was truly a world wide bubble.

If by "folly" you mean the world wide bubble, then what is the solution, a more restrictive set of lending requirements, ala Canada?
 
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I just don't understand where the money is coming from for these countries to borrow it. Where is the money suppose to come from?

It's usually in the form of bonds. The countries sell bonds promising a certain percentage of return. For countries like Greece they have ridiculously high interest rates on the bonds, because nobody wants to buy them and they have horrible credit.

Most of it comes from private banks, investors, and other nations like China. A lot of the loans come from the ECB (European Central Bank), which is paid for and subsidized by the EU member states' taxpayers. China is buying up a massive portion of our and the EU's debt. It's getting really bad.
 
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It's usually in the form of bonds. The countries sell bonds promising a certain percentage of return. For countries like Greece they have ridiculously high interest rates on the bonds, because nobody wants to buy them and they have horrible credit.

Most of it comes from private banks, investors, and other nations like China. A lot of the loans come from the ECB (European Central Bank), which is paid for and subsidized by the EU member states' taxpayers. China is buying up a massive portion of our and the EU's debt. It's getting really bad.

I get where it comes from, but I was under the impression that these sources are drying up. Or is that not correct?
 
I get where it comes from, but I was under the impression that these sources are drying up. Or is that not correct?
It's definitely bankrupting everybody, which is why everyone's affected in the recession. When they run out of legitimate funds they step in and just print more money to pay for it, which is TOTALLY an awesome idea. :roll:
 
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