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Gas prices are highest ever for this time of year

Sometimes people do bad things. But such occurrences are generally outliers, as opposed to the market norm.

What IS the norm is speculators -- who have absolutely no intention of ever taking delivery -- pushing up oil prices. Why do they do it, do you think? It's not because they want the oil. 70% of the oil futures traders will never take delivery of so much as a quart. It used to be the case that only 30% of speculators were financial traders. Now it's 70%. And of course they often make a lot of money on their bets. And who pays for those profits, do you think?
 
What IS the norm is speculators -- who have absolutely no intention of ever taking delivery -- pushing up oil prices. Why do they do it, do you think? It's not because they want the oil. 70% of the oil futures traders will never take delivery of so much as a quart. It used to be the case that only 30% of speculators were financial traders. Now it's 70%. And of course they often make a lot of money on their bets. And who pays for those profits, do you think?

Nobody has yet to show that speculation has driven prices up in 2008, or now. There is credible evidence that leads us to believe that emerging market demand is the key determinant in oil price movements.
 
Nobody has yet to show that speculation has driven prices up in 2008, or now. There is credible evidence that leads us to believe that emerging market demand is the key determinant in oil price movements.

You think that emerging market demand has increased 32% in the last four months? Because that's the price change over that time period.

Listen, I'm not disagreeing with you to the extent that supply and demand are still, by far, the main factors in the price of oil, but I think speculation does drive up costs, and it can do so quite sharply in the short and mid term. And I don't see a good reason why it should be allowed, other than for end users.
 
How Koch Became An Oil Speculation Powerhouse

"In April, ThinkProgress caused a stir when we uncovered a series of Koch Industries corporate documents revealing the company’s role as an oil speculator. Like many oil companies, Koch uses legitimate hedging products to create price stability. However, the documents reveal that Koch is also participating in the unregulated derivatives markets as a financial player, buying and selling speculative products that are increasingly contributing to the skyrocketing price of oil. Excessive energy speculation today is at its highest levels ever, and even Goldman Sachs now admits that at least $27 of the price of crude oil is a result from reckless speculation rather than market fundamentals of supply and demand. Many experts interviewed by ThinkProgress argue that the figure is far higher, and out of control speculation has doubled the current price of crude oil."

"– October 6, 1986: First oil derivative is introduced to Wall Street by traders at Koch."

– 1990-1992: Koch, along with several oil companies and Wall Street speculators, form a coalition lobbying group to deregulate oil speculation. A coalition called “The Energy Group” is organized to press the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to allow oil derivatives to be traded off the NYMEX or any other regulated exchange. Participants in the coalition include Koch, Enron, Phibro (a powerful commodity speculator firm recently sold from Citigroup to Occidental Petroleum), J. Aron & Co (a commodity trading division of Goldman Sachs), BP, and other companies.

– January 21, 1993. Wendy Gramm makes first major move to deregulate oil speculation. “On the final day of the [George H.W.] Bush administration, January 21, 1993, [CFTC chairwoman] Wendy Gramm … approved the rule exempting key energy futures contracts from government regulation and returned a great chunk of the energy market to the grand old days of unregulated futures trading,” writes author Antonia Juhasz in the book Tyranny of Oil.

– 1997: Koch continues to shift from oil refining and pipelines to financial products. As Koch continues its embrace of selling exotic financial products, the company pioneers the first “weather derivatives,” essentially insurance policies sold to utility companies that bet on future temperature and weather patterns.

– December 12, 2000: Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX), after being lobbied by Koch and Enron, creates the infamous “Enron Loophole” vastly deregulating the oil speculation market. On the night of December 12, 2000, Gramm attaches a 262-page amendment to the Commodities Futures Modernization Act, which is then attached to an omnibus spending bill that is signed into law by President Clinton before leaving office. The Gramm amendment, which received absolutely no public scrutiny or committee hearings, radically expands and codifies the energy deregulation agenda began by Gramm’s wife during the first Bush administration.

– 2008: Rampant oil speculation spikes prices to unprecedented levels. As academics from the Peterson Institute, the James Baker Institute at Rice University, and others conclude, non-commercial speculators begin to dominate the market, forcing up prices.

– 2009: Koch presentation to ICE boasts that Koch is on the level of transnational big banks and can now be considered one of the world’s top five oil speculators.

– 2010: Koch’s Tea Party front groups and lobbyists fight financial reforms designed to reign in the unregulated energy market.

– 2011: As oil speculation again hits record highs, leading to record high oil prices, Koch’s allies in Congress fight to undermine new reforms and allow unchecked speculation to spiral out of control."


How Koch Became An Oil Speculation Powerhouse | ThinkProgress
 
You think that emerging market demand has increased 32% in the last four months? Because that's the price change over that time period.

Listen, I'm not disagreeing with you to the extent that supply and demand are still, by far, the main factors in the price of oil, but I think speculation does drive up costs, and it can do so quite sharply in the short and mid term. And I don't see a good reason why it should be allowed, other than for end users.

Why would demand have to increase by 32% for oil to increase by that same amount given your specified time interval? Furthermore, what leads you to believe that the oil market expresses a linear relationship between demand and price? Consider price elasticity of demand, and rethink your response;)
 
Investment banks and hedge funds are incapable of cornering commodity markets; there is nothing to build a case for cornering futures markets, because for every long or short order contract, there is a counter-party required to take the other position. [....]

History disagrees... at least to the extent that investment banks and/or hedge funds can crash an entire market, if not an entire economy.

On September 16, 1992, Black Wednesday, Soros' fund sold short more than $10 billion in pounds,[23] profiting from the UK government's reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float its currency.

Finally, the UK withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, devaluing the pound, earning Soros an estimated $1.1 billion. He was dubbed "the man who broke the Bank of England".[28] In 1997, the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.

George Soros - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt attempted to corner the world silver markets in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at one stage holding the rights to more than half of the world's deliverable silver.[3] During the Hunts' accumulation of the precious metal, silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980.[4] Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later,[4] much of the fall occurring on a single day now known as Silver Thursday, due to changes made to exchange rules regarding the purchase of commodities on margin.[5]

Cornering the market - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Treasury Department suggested that the potential losses to the US and global economy would be 'extremely high' if it [AIG] were to collapse[88] and has suggested that if in future there is no improvement, it will invest more money into the company [in addition to $180 billion already invested], as it is unwilling to allow it to fail.[89]

American International Group - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
If you care to point out where I said it was worth it, I'll be happy to respond.
Right here:

I don't think anyone is surprised that you are unaware that a dictator controlled Iraqi oil since 40 years ago. In order to do business with him, substantial bribes and kickbacks were required. It took an invasion/regime change to open the markets to legitimate oil companies.

You are right on one thing though, it was mission accomplished.
 
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History disagrees... at least to the extent that investment banks and/or hedge funds can crash an entire market, if not an entire economy.

You are comparing apples to chicken legs.
 
History disagrees... at least to the extent that investment banks and/or hedge funds can crash an entire market, if not an entire economy.

I few things

The BOE broke the BOE. Soros jut made the event occur sooner. Economic fundamentals will always win out

The Hunt Brothers were trying to corner a market with a far lower inventory then the oil industry and would have had to take delievery. The failed and lost a bundle because they couldnt afford to take del.

The oil industry is too large to corner the market, it has new supplies being produced every day, and the long term price is set by supply v demand (other then currency changes). Every speculator either has to sell their rights to the oil they contracted for or to take del of the oil. All the oil they bid on, and buy, they have to sell as well
 
Does that mean that every industry that exports product has too much capacity ???

Absurd comment.

If the industry as a whole exports more then is imported, it has excess capacity to serve the domestic market. Meaning that domestic prices are not high because of a shortage in capacity to serve the domestic market
 
What it means is that it's ludicrous to argue that our high gas prices are the result of insufficient refining capacity, when we obviously have sufficient capacity not only for our domestic needs, but to make refined fuel the nations No. 1 export product.

If I had made that argument, you might have a point.
 
Nobody has yet to show that speculation has driven prices up in 2008, or now. There is credible evidence that leads us to believe that emerging market demand is the key determinant in oil price movements.

I did. Many times.

Speculation seen adding $600 to your gas bill - Oct. 13, 2011

Speculation In Crude Oil Adds $23.39 To The Price Per Barrel - Forbes

When Goldman Sachs Warns That Speculation Drives Oil Prices, Listen Up - CBS News

I think you really need to stay out of these discussions as it's impossible for you to defend your position.
 
If I had made that argument, you might have a point.

So you disagree with OpportunityCost, who's argument I was addressing?
 
Right, but as high as our gas prices are it's not from a shortage of anything. The oil companies ship gasoline elsewhere that they make here because they make a bigger profit in doing so. That's just business.

So gas wouldn't necessarily be cheaper just from drilling anywhere and everywhere. Because if the increased crude production just turns into gasoline that they ship to China because they make more money, it doesn't lower the price we pay much at all.

Do you believe prices will go lower if our economy improves? We are exporting more gasoline because there is less demand for it here. What will happen when a Republican President is voted into office in November and the economy begins to improve?
 
[...] The oil industry is too large to corner the market, it has new supplies being produced every day, and the long term price is set by supply v demand (other then currency changes). Every speculator either has to sell their rights to the oil they contracted for or to take del of the oil. All the oil they bid on, and buy, they have to sell as well
You are neglecting option contracts, correct?

Therefore the question would be,
what is to total dollar value of all the open options contracts on oil futures
versus
the total dollar value of all the oil deliverable over the total time frame of all the existing open option contracts (roughly 3 or 4 years worth, I suppose... been quite a few years since I played the options market).

Given that there is some $70 trillion worth of derivatives floating around the world at the moment, I'm far from convinced that the price of oil could not be severely manipulated by options (derivatives) on futures contracts.
 

You post news articles that lack valid methods of critique, and expect to be taken seriously? :lamo

Maybe you would like a second opportunity to internalize a something of substance?

Activity in the crude oil futures market increased appreciably in the past decade, as did the number of noncommercial traders, the so-called speculators. This coincided with rising oil prices but didn’t necessarily cause them. No transmission mechanism linking futures prices to spot prices appears until transactions occur in the spot market. Looking at the 2007–09 period, the data are consistent with how a well-functioning futures market would behave, initially when there is tightness in the market, and later when there is considerable slack due to the global recession. Futures market traders, therefore, seem to have been routine market participants.

Source
 
You are neglecting option contracts, correct?

Therefore the question would be,
what is to total dollar value of all the open options contracts on oil futures
versus
the total dollar value of all the oil deliverable over the total time frame of all the existing open option contracts (roughly 3 or 4 years worth, I suppose... been quite a few years since I played the options market).

Given that there is some $70 trillion worth of derivatives floating around the world at the moment, I'm far from convinced that the price of oil could not be severely manipulated by options (derivatives) on futures contracts.

Derivatives are zero-sum positions, meaning they require a counter-party to even exist.
 
Derivatives are zero-sum positions, meaning they require a counter-party to even exist.
This is true, but you did not address the question: to wit, the sum total of outstanding derivatives can exceed, by a wide margin, the availability of the commodity that they are speculating upon... leading to a bubble, followed by a collapse (I give you the 2008 mortgage-backed-securities market).
 
You are neglecting option contracts, correct?

Therefore the question would be,
what is to total dollar value of all the open options contracts on oil futures
versus
the total dollar value of all the oil deliverable over the total time frame of all the existing open option contracts (roughly 3 or 4 years worth, I suppose... been quite a few years since I played the options market).

Given that there is some $70 trillion worth of derivatives floating around the world at the moment, I'm far from convinced that the price of oil could not be severely manipulated by options (derivatives) on futures contracts.


If the price of oil is too high, then it will not be used. Excess supplies will build up in storage tanks, super tankers and the like. The excess supply will be seen by the market and result in a lowering of the price. Speculator can drive the futures price up, because the futures contract does not mean it will be delieverd, and most likely will not. It is what the actual user of the oil will pay, which will determine the price of oil. Not somebody with a contract that allows him/her to buy oil at a certain price at a certain date, or not to do anything. If the actual user is not willing to pay $120 per barrel, the price will not be $120 per barrel

Unlike gold, silver, Oil is not generally put into long term storage as an investment, and it is constantly being produced in significant quantities. Meaning cornering the market is difficult unless the actuall supply can be reduced
 
This is true, but you did not address the question: to wit, the sum total of outstanding derivatives can exceed, by a wide margin, the availability of the commodity that they are speculating upon... leading to a bubble, followed by a collapse (I give you the 2008 mortgage-backed-securities market).

Again, you are comparing apples to chicken legs. What is the relationship between futures and spot price?
 
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Unlike gold, silver, Oil is not generally put into long term storage as an investment, and it is constantly being produced in significant quantities. Meaning cornering the market is difficult unless the actuall supply can be reduced

This is a key point; the only entities capable of cornering this market are the suppliers themselves.
 
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I just don't get it.

You build a a new refinery or two, which will directly and indirectly create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and you drive the price down on gasoline, groceries, travel, and everything else. You run that pipleline and you pick up our on- and off-shore drilling production, too

Basically, Obama has extended the social security tax cut so people get to keep another $40 per month, then gas prices spiral upward so all that and more goes back into the gas tank. What is the point?

Why we let this go on, while other countries simply pick up the slack and gouge us on the back end, is completely beyond me.

But I guess the Jedi global-warming mind tricks always work on the weak minded, eh Obi Wan?

Submitted without comment (Since the comments on FOX News in 2008 speak for themselves)

 
Hi Gas price is increased very high and i consider you are opinion
 
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