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PAPER: Military action against Iran 'likely'..

onestepfurther said:
So just for argument, let's say Iran builds a few nukes -- the first three or so obviously go to Israel, but what of the next few? May I suggest that cities on the coasts (NY, DC, LA, etc.) are easy to get within blast radius of if your blast radius is measured in tens of miles. Just a thought. Iran not a threat? Sun not rise in east.
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iran has not initiated military action against another sovereign nation in approximately 200 years
we cannot even say that about israel for 200 weeks

now, which nation currently possess nuclear weapons but refuses to participate in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty
which nation refuses to allow access to neutral observers to assess its military capacity
hint: it is not iran
 
Helix said:
someday we'll figure out that replacing oil is important enough to make it a top-level national priority.

i hope we figure it out before the next war.
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Or maybe we could start pumping our own oil -- it's not like there ain't enough of it. But seriously, it IS and has been a top priority, in both gov't and private research for years. But the wind is sometimes calm, and the the sun (even if solar panels were 100% efficient -- and they ain't) just doesn't lay enough energy on us to power our society.
 
obvious Child said:

Whoa there. That's not counting proxies because if we count proxies, Iran has been in a cold war with Israel for the better part of 30 years.
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what proxies are you referring to?
 
onestepfurther said:
Or maybe we could start pumping our own oil -- it's not like there ain't enough of it. But seriously, it IS and has been a top priority, in both gov't and private research for years. But the wind is sometimes calm, and the the sun (even if solar panels were 100% efficient -- and they ain't) just doesn't lay enough energy on us to power our society.
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Not going to change much unless you nationalize oil. First, there's nothing stopping Canada, OPEC or Russia from reducing supply to reduce total world supply to increase prices to where they want them. If the US increased production by 50,000 BPD, OPEC merely needs to drop 50,000 BPD to keep largely the same price. Nationalization isolates a country from the global market in the industry of nationalization. And the US is largely a small player in the global market. If we got off of oil, we'd see a serious decline in oil demand and price. Guess which government goes down? Carcas, Tehran, Moscow. All fall as revenue dries up. Replacing oil may be the easiest way to knock off our enemies. And all without firing a shot.
 
justabubba said:
iran has not initiated military action against another sovereign nation in approximately 200 years
we cannot even say that about israel for 200 weeks

now, which nation currently possess nuclear weapons but refuses to participate in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty
which nation refuses to allow access to neutral observers to assess its military capacity
hint: it is not iran
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200 years, ay? I didn't know that. It's relevance to this discussion is open to question, but seriously, thank you. I'll have to check that out.

If your neighbor were building a Colt .45 and stating publicly that he wanted to wipe you off the map, would you sign a Colt .45 NPT? I sure as hell wouldn't. I think I'd get more ammo and spend some time at the range.
 
obvious Child said:
Not going to change much unless you nationalize oil. First, there's nothing stopping Canada, OPEC or Russia from reducing supply to reduce total world supply to increase prices to where they want them. If the US increased production by 50,000 BPD, OPEC merely needs to drop 50,000 BPD to keep largely the same price. Nationalization isolates a country from the global market in the industry of nationalization. And the US is largely a small player in the global market. If we got off of oil, we'd see a serious decline in oil demand and price. Guess which government goes down? Carcas, Tehran, Moscow. All fall as revenue dries up. Replacing oil may be the easiest way to knock off our enemies. And all without firing a shot.
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That is a fascinating idea. Really. Kudos. But it does presuppose the possibility of quitting our oil habit. As flies-in-ointment go, that's pretty big.
 
onestepfurther said:
200 years, ay? I didn't know that. It's relevance to this discussion is open to question, but seriously, thank you. I'll have to check that out.

If your neighbor were building a Colt .45 and stating publicly that he wanted to wipe you off the map, would you sign a Colt .45 NPT? I sure as hell wouldn't. I think I'd get more ammo and spend some time at the range.
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in this case the neighbor did NOT say he wanted to wipe israel off of the map
the iranian president did advocate assisting in regime change
 
onestepfurther said:
That is a fascinating idea. Really. Kudos. But it does presuppose the possibility of quitting our oil habit. As flies-in-ointment go, that's pretty big.
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I'm not creative enough (or old enough) to claim credit to that. Oil revenues make a disproportionate amount of those nation's GDP and tax revenue. Remember that Caracas in the years of cheap oil had a very different government. Russia as well. Representation without taxation can often result in governments that are in many ways tyrannical. Saudi Arabia for one. No one is going to argue that getting off oil is easy, but it would be the easiest way to topple our enemies without going to war at the same time as producing huge economic gains in the US. We export energy systems rather than importing at the same time denying our enemies revenue.
 
justabubba said:
and how do you determine that these are iranian proxies
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Iran funnels them money and weapons. Not to mention provides training. I don't see how they are fundamentally different from the proxies the US used against the Soviet client states back in the Cold War. We give them money, weapons and training to fight our enemies so we don't directly have to. That's a proxy.
 
Heh..Romney will do the same thing if elected...you ummm think the GOP is against war all of a sudden...THEY ARE ALL WAITING TILL AFTER THE ELECTION...come on guys...darn..honest up some
 
justabubba said:
iran has not initiated military action against another sovereign nation in approximately 200 years
we cannot even say that about israel for 200 weeks
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Makes you wonder where the irrational fear comes from by some in a country with the most powerful military on the planet, doesn't it?
 
justabubba said:
what proxies are you referring to?
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really?

IRGC--> Qods--> Hezbollah (--> Hamas)
IRGC--> Qods--> Mahdi Army
IRGC--> Qods--> Taliban

Who are the Qods Forces?

The Quds Force (alternatively spelled Ghods or Qods) (Persian: نیروی قدس‎, translit. Niru-ye Qods, "Jerusalem Force") is a special unit of Iran's Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Revolutionary Guard). It has been described as "tasked with exporting" Iran's Islamic revolution,[1] or "responsible for extraterritorial operations" of the Revolutionary Guard...
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The Qods Force is the offensive arm of the IRGC. They are those most dedicated to exporting the Jihad.

Iran has been involved in an insurgent-style offensive in the Middle East against the Sunnis, against the Israelis, and against the US for about 25 years now.


Oh - just for entertainment: who can name me the branch of Iranian military controlling the development of its' nuclear program? :)
 
justabubba said:
and how do you determine that these are iranian proxies
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:doh

well, let's see. if someone trains you, funds you, and directs you; would you say that you are or are not a proxy?

Iran created Hezbollah. They staff Hezbollah. They fund Hezbollah, they supply Hezbollah, they enable Hezbollah and they direct Hezbollah. Why the hell do you think Hezbollah is fighting for the Assad regime?
 
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obvious Child said:
Iran funnels them money and weapons. Not to mention provides training. I don't see how they are fundamentally different from the proxies the US used against the Soviet client states back in the Cold War. We give them money, weapons and training to fight our enemies so we don't directly have to. That's a proxy.
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so, what you are saying is they provide backing to those with ideologies aligned with their own just as the USA does
so, what they do is wrong while when we do it then it is good?
 
cpwill said:
Oh - just for entertainment: who can name me the branch of Iranian military controlling the development of its' nuclear program? :)
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I believe that's Qods also, isn't it?
 
justabubba said:
so, what you are saying is they provide backing to those with ideologies aligned with their own just as the USA does
so, what they do is wrong while when we do it then it is good?
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:doh

questions of whether or not it's "right" or "wrong" (it is certainly smart) are irrelevant when discussing capability sets.
 
cpwill said:
:doh

questions of whether or not it's "right" or "wrong" (it is certainly smart) are irrelevant when discussing capability sets.
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let's replay the discussion
i noted that iran has not initiated a military action against another sovereign nation in about 200 years
in response, it was presented that iran fights by proxie
just like the USA
so either we conclude that iran has not initiated a war in two centuries or that the USA is fighting wars across the globe via its array of proxies
 
justabubba said:
let's replay the discussion
i noted that iran has not initiated a military action against another sovereign nation in about 200 years
in response, it was presented that iran fights by proxie
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yes and no. While they do that too, Qods forces is no more a "proxy" of Iran than US Special Forces are a "proxy" of the United States.
 
justabubba said:
let's replay the discussion
i noted that iran has not initiated a military action against another sovereign nation in about 200 years
in response, it was presented that iran fights by proxie
just like the USA
so either we conclude that iran has not initiated a war in two centuries or that the USA is fighting wars across the globe via its array of proxies
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The fact that Iran fights by proxy has nothing to do with the US. Your statement that Iran has not took military action in 200 years is misleading and wrong.
 
drz-400 said:
The fact that Iran fights by proxy has nothing to do with the US. Your statement that Iran has not took military action in 200 years is misleading and wrong.
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it's quite accurate. but prove me wrong. offer facts which will undermine my assertion

the comparison to the US is regarding proxies. it appears some would insist that because iran provides assistance to those "proxies" aligned with its interests, we must conclude that iran is thus engaged in warfare
using that rationale, we must also then conclude the US has been in perennial war via our own array of proxies across the globe
 
justabubba said:
it's quite accurate. but prove me wrong. offer facts which will undermine my assertion

the comparison to the US is regarding proxies. it appears some would insist that because iran provides assistance to those "proxies" aligned with its interests, we must conclude that iran is thus engaged in warfare
using that rationale, we must also then conclude the US has been in perennial war via our own array of proxies across the globe
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There have been two facts offered in the discussion:

1. Iran created, funds, trains, supplies, etc various groups such as Hezbolla.

The fact that Iran provides assistance to certain proxies aligned with its interest is not necessarily a bad thing. However, using common sense rather than Noam Chomskism we see that the interests Iran is funding are a) not aligned with our own and b) are regarded as militant groups wishing to "obliterate" a certain sovereign nation (Israel). Thus we conclude that saying Iran has not taken military action in 200 years against a sovereign is misleading at best and wrong at worst.

2. Iran's Qods force has been invloved in military action with the US

This directly refutes the idea the Iran has not had any military action in 200 years.
 
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