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Strait of Hormuz standoff: Iran films US aircraft carrier

I'm not a Paul supporter. I do understand his stance with regards to the Constitution.

The Constitution imposes no such requirements on Paul. The contrast between how FDR responded to Pearl Harbor attack and how Ron Paul says he would respond to an Iranian act of aggression against vital U.S. interests could not be greater. The issue isn't the Constitution. It's Paul's naive neo-isolationist/non-interventionist ideology.

His ideology is premised on the assumption that what happens overseas has no impact on the U.S. Hence, even if Iran undertook an action to close the Strait of Hormuz and sparked a global energy crisis, Paul would meekly "report" the issue to Congress. Anyone can observe or report issues. Leadership would be required in the face of the crisis and, as had been the case with the financial crisis, Paul would provide none. Others would need to provide it. I have little doubt that Congress would clean up Paul's mess in this case. However, the reality is that leadership voids invite challenges. The absence of leadership in the White House during a Paul Presidency would pose a threat to American interests.
 
The Constitution imposes no such requirements on Paul. The contrast between how FDR responded to Pearl Harbor attack and how Ron Paul says he would respond to an Iranian act of aggression against vital U.S. interests could not be greater. The issue isn't the Constitution. It's Paul's naive neo-isolationist/non-interventionist ideology.

Those are not comparable.

His ideology is premised on the assumption that what happens overseas has no impact on the U.S. Hence, even if Iran undertook an action to close the Strait of Hormuz and sparked a global energy crisis, Paul would meekly "report" the issue to Congress.

An energy crisis is not a risk to the life of American citizens. No action is warranted, action is not. If the prices go out of control that is where the market starts to work, not where government starts to save the day. The US government has no authority to be involved in the matter.

Anyone can observe or report issues. Leadership would be required in the face of the crisis and, as had been the case with the financial crisis, Paul would provide none.

He wouldn't save the banks or pump the economy with money or even help people save their homes. You are taking "he will not do what I want" as no action at all. That is a mistake. He isn't a Keynesian supporter or social or market interventionist and that appears to be where you problem is and yes the constitution does stop those activities regardless of what the SC says.
 
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i am thinking the plan is to provoke iran into doing something stupid
likely the reason we sent our aircraft carrier to enter the very waters where the iranians were conducting their announced naval exercise

I think that an argument can be made that us ramping up what could be perceived as an absolute intent to not let Iran close International Waters is rather a provocation for Iran to not do something stupid.

While I believe Iran has no true intent of closing anything, sanctions or no sanctions, I believe the correct course of action is to make it as clear as possible to Iran that we will respond with prejudice, and with the support of many other countries, both in that region, and worldwide. If anything, this posturing by Iran has made themselves seem as more a loose-cannon than before, and I do not see that helping them in any arena except with a few of the hometown extremists regardless.
 
i am thinking the plan is to provoke iran into doing something stupid
likely the reason we sent our aircraft carrier to enter the very waters where the iranians were conducting their announced naval exercise

So the plan is to pick a fight? And people call Ron Paul nuts. :roll:
 
I think that an argument can be made that us ramping up what could be perceived as an absolute intent to not let Iran close International Waters is rather a provocation for Iran to not do something stupid.

While I believe Iran has no true intent of closing anything, sanctions or no sanctions, I believe the correct course of action is to make it as clear as possible to Iran that we will respond with prejudice, and with the support of many other countries, both in that region, and worldwide. If anything, this posturing by Iran has made themselves seem as more a loose-cannon than before, and I do not see that helping them in any arena except with a few of the hometown extremists regardless.

what we observed was iran's bellicose chest thumping, however false it may be, in order to save face
the new sanctions cost them face
they are trying to pretend that they can control their own fate
and yes, its audience was likely as internal as external
 
........... An energy crisis is not a risk to the life of American citizens. No action is warranted, action is not. If the prices go out of control that is where the market starts to work, not where government starts to save the day. The US government has no authority to be involved in the matter. ........

What ? If the cost of fuel here doubles, you do not see that as a threat to all Americans ? More loss of competitiveness and more jobs lost ? Certainly a double-dip recession, if not depression. You don't perceive the enormous hardship ?

Ron Paul is a friggin whacko.
 
The Iranian government is certainly not a victim, its quite clear it wants to become a regional power and part of that is undermining US influences in the region. They've been active even when they weren't directly threatened, for example support certain insurgent groups in Iraq or Afghanistan. However lets be clear, the Iranian people for the most part don't have a dog in this fight, they are more concerned with domestic problems than foreign ones and yes some of them have suffered due to sanctions, its a necessarily cost but it doesn't mean their sacrifice doesn't exist.

In part this is why the sanctions have some chance to work. It would destabilize Iran, and it would reduce the power of those in charge of Iran. There is no proof that sanctions will work, but the other two options are military strikes or letting Iran get nuclear weapons, both of which are inferior options to sanctions to my mind.
 
The U.S. doesn't have rights to the Strait, so I don't see how it would be a direct declaration of war against the U.S. to block it. Obviously it would affect our oil economy, but in terms of legal provisions, the Strait is not ours so all of this entitlement to attack Iran about it is uncalled for. If the U.S. attacks Iran over the Strait then we would be violating international law. Despite what the warhawks would have us believe, we can't just go to war with any country we want. Mind you, the UN law has been flouted many times in recent years by several of the big powers, so it might not matter, especially if the U.S. forms a coalition again.

I have to agree though that during a recession and an election year, another major war would be extremely unpopular - but it could happen anyway, since oil industry is our biggest sacred cow. Anything that obstructs it would suffer the rath of the Republocrats. Not to mention, the POTUS has the unilateral power to deploy the military now, so it would actually be up to King Obama and not so much our Congress, unless the GOP makes a push for it to happen.

The only loose canon here is Israel, and their government has been looking for any excuse to bomb the **** out of Iran for several years now. The tensions are climbing. It wouldn't be so severe if Iran weren't already surrounded by nations that have been infiltrated by our military. They are likely to be more nervous, and more nervous means they will take measures to procure their security.

The US is threatening to stop any attempt to close the straits, not to strike Iran itself.
 
Why is it that US conservatives are so blood thirsty and war hungry?

Finally the US can draw down its massive military spending and now the US conservatives are looking for the next war to get more American's killed in.

It is after all mostly the US conservatives fault that Iran is doing what it is doing... deal with your own failures by admitting that before going all guns blazing against Iran and its people. Dont be the starter of the next war.. let them make the first move and at least you will have justice and legal aspect on your side for once.

Pete, try and understand this. The US is planning sanctions against Iran instead of military strikes. The US will stop any effort of Iran to close the straits, which is hardly going to war. And some of us liberals agree that Iran cannot be allowed to close the straits.
 
What ? If the cost of fuel here doubles, you do not see that as a threat to all Americans ? More loss of competitiveness and more jobs lost ? Certainly a double-dip recession, if not depression. You don't perceive the enormous hardship ?

Ron Paul is a friggin whacko.

What does enormous hardships have to do with keeping our nation save? From what I can tell nothing. As for the price of oil it should cause people to move past the solution if it hurts enough, so it should resolve itself. On a sidenote, the government worrying about the price of energy prices is a bit hypocritical since they have been trying to run coal plants price up to make their solution more desirable for a good year and a half now. The government does understand the use of prices in a market and do practice it regardless of how hypocritical they are about it.
 
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Meh. Iran doesn't have the balls to close the Strait.

I suspect this is most likely. They have no real chance to close the straits by simple blockade, and other methods would hurt them more than any one else. One Carrier Task Force could take out the entire Iranian navy with minimal casualties.
 
This thread begs the questions:

What steps would other nations take to protect their interests if the US did not do it for them?

How much money would be saved by letting other countries handle their own problems - money that could be put toward rebuilding the US infrastructure, educational system, health system, etc.?

It is a US problem. A nuclear Iran is a threat to the US, and the closing of the straits would dramatically raise oil prices. The US can only lose by either giving in.
 
It is a US problem. A nuclear Iran is a threat to the US, and the closing of the straits would dramatically raise oil prices. The US can only lose by either giving in.

more like: a nuclear Iran is a threat to American troops. They are not a threat to me or anyone else in the United States.
 
more like: a nuclear Iran is a threat to American troops. They are not a threat to me or anyone else in the United States.
i would submit that a nuclear pakistan is more of a threat to our troops deployed to the ME
to consider iran a domestic nuclear threat is a bit of a stretch
 
What does enormous hardships have to do with keeping our nation save? From what I can tell nothing. As for the price of oil it should cause people to move past the solution if it hurts enough, so it should resolve itself. On a sidenote, the government worrying about the price of energy prices is a bit hypocritical since they have been trying to run coal plants price up to make their solution more desirable for a good year and a half now. The government does understand the use of prices in a market and do practice it regardless of how hypocritical they are about it.

Iran's hand on the oil spigot is not a natural capitalist market force. It would cause unnatural fluctuations in supply, which would disproportinately effect certain countries more than others. Much to our ruin.
 
i would submit that a nuclear pakistan is more of a threat to our troops deployed to the ME
to consider iran a domestic nuclear threat is a bit of a stretch

and yet, there is no discussion of taking out Pakistan's nuclear capability. funny how that works huh?
 
Pakistan and Iran are different countries. That means they are, *gasp*, different. We handle the situation in each case differently. This is not complicated. Any essentially unstable or inimical country with nukes or working towards nukes is a potential thread, be they Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia, Israel, India, North Korea. We treat those countries all differently, which, considering they are different, is appropriate.
 
Iran's hand on the oil spigot is not a natural capitalist market force. It would cause unnatural fluctuations in supply, which would disproportinately effect certain countries more than others. Much to our ruin.

Why do we care what happens in other countries? We don't. And Iran is filled with empty threats. Everyone knows if they started blocking oil to countries they would be cutting their own head off. Paul has already said he plans to open up oil drilling in this country by completely unblocking it and we could easily get oil from elsewhere if Iran decides to go full retard and block countries from buying its oil. Even if somehow everything went to **** for us we would still be able to live through it fine and most likely be better off because of it. This is a non issue.
 
Why do we care what happens in other countries? We don't. And Iran is filled with empty threats. Everyone knows if they started blocking oil to countries they would be cutting their own head off. Paul has already said he plans to open up oil drilling in this country by completely unblocking it and we could easily get oil from elsewhere if Iran decides to go full retard and block countries from buying its oil. Even if somehow everything went to **** for us we would still be able to live through it fine and most likely be better off because of it. This is a non issue.

As I noted earlier in the thread, our ability to ignore things in the ME with regard to oil is directly proportional to the amount of added oil we access here in North America, especially stateside and Canada. But until we decrease our dependence on imported oil, we are ......... drumroll ........... completely dependent upon it.

Many of us agree that Iran has zero intention of blocking the Straits. The question posed though was "what if they did attempt to block them". The call for military action would be widespread.
 
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Why do we care what happens in other countries? We don't. And Iran is filled with empty threats. Everyone knows if they started blocking oil to countries they would be cutting their own head off. Paul has already said he plans to open up oil drilling in this country by completely unblocking it and we could easily get oil from elsewhere if Iran decides to go full retard and block countries from buying its oil. Even if somehow everything went to **** for us we would still be able to live through it fine and most likely be better off because of it. This is a non issue.

So a little more oil at some unspecified future date if Paul actually won the election(and that has about zero chance of happening) somehow would ofset the loss of 1/5 of the worlds oil supply being stopped up in the Persian Gulf?
 
j-mac, et al,

I know that many, many people would agree with you on this. But, there are other issues, concepts and principles involved. I may not totally agree with Ron Paul's logic; but it does give pause for concern.

(THE ARGUMENT - THUMBNAIL - GOES LIKE THIS)

The US needs to rank it's "vital interests" with the "vital interests" of all the key players. This constant use, by political midget minds, of the phrase "US vital Interests" and "National Security" as an excuse for unilateral authority to enter into military conflicts is becoming overworked.

There are about 15-20 VLCC Oil Tankers that transit the Straits of Hormuz daily. Only a faction of them are US Flagged. But none of the Persian Gulf Terminals are US. They belong to some of the riches nations in the world. Filthy rich! (Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman!!!) And every one of them (with the exception of Iraq) can afford to fund their own protective defense force.

Iran has a GNP of about $187B. Kuwait $59B, Saudi Arabia $289B, Bahrain $10B, Qatar $15B, United Arab Emirates $112B and Oman $23B; not counting Iraq with $16B. For most of them, oil is their only significant export. The Straits are much more critical a passage to them, than to the US. Without the Straits, they are shut-down.

Why is it the US that has to defend the Straits? Well the answer is, the US does not. The US does so because it wants to be Regionally Relevant and exercise hegemonic like influence. The Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea Neighbors to Iran cannot afford to let Iran block the straits any more than Iran itself can afford to box-in its own exports.

Yes, I've heard all the arguments that the 5th Fleet is the only force in the region that can challenge Iran. But each time we play the role of "World Police" - we get our reputation massacred and get virtually no return on our investment. And, we further convince the Regional Government that they need not invest in their own critical defense soft points.

At a time when unemployment is at an all time high, and when the budget is stretched to its limit, when American credit has been internationally down graded, when multinational and transnational corporations (like Exxon $370B, Royal Dutch Shell $368B, BP $297B, Sinopec $289B, etc, most having a annual revenue greater than the Persian Gulf States) are exporting jobs like crazy, do we need to spend money maintaining the 5th US Fleet to protect Persian Gulf Interests.


Defend the Persian Gulf Region today, and you'll have to do it again tomorrow; even as they condemn you for it. Make them defend themselves, and you'll save yourself the problems associated with infidels interfering.

At some point, you would think we would have learned that we cannot trust these people; and nor can we afford to defend them.

If the Regional Governments of (Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman!!!) And if they don't have a problem with Iran, and are concerned enough to contain Iran, then why should the US?

(COMMENT)

There is some merit to the argument. And, there are some ironies.

The US did not ratify the UNC Law of the Seas convention when it was introduced nearly 30 years ago. Nor has the US ratified the International Criminal Code (Rome Statues) introduced a decade ago. Yet we tend to exercise military force under the flag of "customary law." Other nations see this as recognizing the conventions as - "when it is convenient for America." They have learned that America will selectively enforce conventions as the "World Police." But are not subject to them. We circumvent UN decrees - when they don't act the way we want (Coalition of the Un-willing), and use them when we take action.

But no matter what the argument - it will not stop the US from taking a military confrontational position. The US needs, it is an essential need, to be militarily relevant in the region.

People like Ron Paul see a different way. Let's not be too hard on them.

Most Respectfully,
R

Most excellent post, my friend! This is why I stated that should Iran blockage the Straits, it shouldn't be the U.S. who comes to the rescue. We really don't have a vital national security interest in the Persian Gulf region where oil is concerned because we don't import nearly as much OPEC oil now as we once did. Therefore, if the blockade becomes a U.N. problem, then and only then should we intervene on that level. However, it would be a completely different matter should Iran attack one of our warships or military aircraft in the region. Otherwise, they've done nothing to warrant a U.S. retaliation. Leave them be; let them thumb their chests. As long as they leave us alone, we'll leave them alone.
 
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So a little more oil at some unspecified future date if Paul actually won the election(and that has about zero chance of happening) somehow would ofset the loss of 1/5 of the worlds oil supply being stopped up in the Persian Gulf?

Wish you luck on the never going to happen chant. Always works out well for people. You should ask conservatives how well that has worked out for them in the last 90 or so years.

Anyway, if it they go through with it and we can't replace it, than well, that is that. Prices will go up and the market will deal with it. Still not seeing a warrant in action.
 
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Pete, try and understand this. The US is planning sanctions against Iran instead of military strikes. The US will stop any effort of Iran to close the straits, which is hardly going to war. And some of us liberals agree that Iran cannot be allowed to close the straits.

LOL yea .. like the sanctions it has had against Cuba and Iran for the last few decades have matter at all. And like it or not, it is not the rhetoric coming from the right.. it is war talk.
 
If filming a carrier is enough for a stand-off, all Iran needs is a few camcorders and they can hold out for years!
 
Not necessarily the Pitbull's battle alone, but it's easier to fight the battle when your supposed "allies" aren't always getting in the way rather than doing anything truly useful. Then again I'm not sure the US is really a Pitbull anymore. I doubt our current administration has the intestinal fortitude to fight a war all-out. Obviously the last one did not, nor have any since the end of WWII.


tell that to me and my regiment when we backed you up in Iraq...
 
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