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U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

Samhain said:
The seasonal adjustment takes the peak and valley from the holiday out of the equation, so you can compare apples to apples, not apples to Christmas trees.
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Thank you. Now would you please explain that to Gill?
 
Insights from the bear of bear blogs. It's hard to argue with the logic.

Guest Post: The Real Employment Situation Report | ZeroHedge

We have pointed out in the past that while the headlines may say one thing it is important to remember that there are several "fudge" factors in the data that must be accounted for. The first is to remember that these are estimates and we will very likely see negative revisions to this years data next year. The 2011 revisions to the 2010 data took nearly 1 million jobs out that were believed to have been created.

However, for todays discussion, it is the third point that is more important today than ever in past history. This is the number of individuals that have "fallen off" the rolls entirely due to running out of the ability to file for unemployment claims. Those individuals not counted as part of the labor force swelled by 487,000 to a record 86.5 million. This in turn led to a drop in the labor force participation rate to 64% from last months 64.2%. This is the lowest levels of labor force participation that we have seen since the early 1980's. This weakness is further confirmed by the duration of those out of work which climbed to a new record of 40.9 weeks.
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Employtment to Population.jpg

This is why I prefer to look at the employment to population ratio as a better means of understanding the real employment situation in the country. In order for the country to return to the long term trend of employment by 2020 we will need to be creating nearly 400,000 jobs each month. This of course is a far cry from 120,000 that we saw this month. With the employment to population ratio remaining at levels not seen since 1984 the real pressure on the economy remains focused on the consumer.
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Without employment growing fast enough to offset labor pool overhang we are unlikely to reduce the real unemployment problem that persist in the U.S. This bodes poorly for the consumer, the economy and ultimately the markets as this weakness leaves all three very susceptible to unexpected system shocks. While we certianly hope for the best - "hope" is not an investment strategy that we can use.
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As partisan as they may be, criticisms are the unemployment number and how it is calculated are completely justified.
 
j-mac said:
Construction is one indicator, another good local indicator for an area is if there are new bank branches opening up in an area. Banks = money flow into an area economy.

j-mac
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[FONT=&quot]Another good indicator of the economy is truck tonnage and it rose 5.7 Percent in October.[/FONT]
 
Goldenboy219 said:
So when economic data does not mesh with right wing talking points, THEN the data is incomplete? :lamo
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What are your excuses going to be in February, when the unemloyment rate goes back up over 9%? Blame the GOP?
 
apdst said:
What are your excuses going to be in February, when the unemloyment rate goes back up over 9%? Blame the GOP?
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If the unemployment rate goes back up over 9%, then i will provide an objective take on why i believe it has increased. Until that time, it would be beneficial not to make predictions that you are in no position to make.
 
apdst said:
What are your excuses going to be in February, when the unemloyment rate goes back up over 9%? Blame the GOP?
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It will be the GOPs fault for not passing the dems pay roll tax cut. That is what they will blame it on next month.
 
Goldenboy219 said:
If the unemployment rate goes back up over 9%, then i will provide an objective take on why i believe it has increased. Until that time, it would be beneficial not to make predictions that you are in no position to make.
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"obejective take" = "It's the GOP's fault!" :rofl
 
Blue_State said:
It will be the GOPs fault for not passing the dems pay roll tax cut. That is what they will blame it on next month.
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"but...but...but...tax cuts don't create jobs!"
 
apdst said:
"but...but...but...tax cuts don't create jobs!"
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Tax cuts do not create jobs when private debt levels exceed 100% of income.
 
apdst said:
I take that mean that you're not pumped up over the payroll tax holiday?
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How about i am not expecting it to do much more than increase the deficit.
 
apdst said:
I take that mean that you're not pumped up over the payroll tax holiday?
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its a good trade off going into an election year. Think that one over for awhile.
 
Goldenboy219 said:
How about i am not expecting it to do much more than increase the deficit.
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Since it's only a few bucks a week for most people, I agree that it's not going to have a positive effect on the economy.

The deficit is only going to get fixed by cutting spending.
 
treedancer said:
its a good trade off going into an election year. Think that one over for awhile.
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You believe that folks are going to vote for the Dems next year, because they got a tax cut that amounts to 10 bucks a week?
 
apdst said:
The deficit is only going to get fixed by cutting spending.
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Cutting spending (right now) will weaken economic activity.
 
Goldenboy219 said:
Cutting spending (right now) will weaken economic activity.
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So will raising taxes. Cut spending growth and unfunded entitlement liabilities.
 
Rhapsody1447 said:
So will raising taxes. Cut spending growth and unfunded entitlement liabilities.
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Notice i am not calling for raising taxes or cutting spending (now).
 
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