The unemployment report we received from the BLS today is for the period of the second week in October through the first week in November, though it is still referred to as the "November" report but most of the information is really from October. This is always how it is done -- the report we receive early in a given month is always about information for the period of the second week two months previous through the first week of the previous month. The data for this period is captured during the previous month, and tabulated during the remaining weeks, then the report is presented early in the current month.
The information in the report is obtained, not from government unemployment offices reporting actuals, but from a survey taken during the second week of every month by the U.S. Census people specifically for the BLS, in which approximately 120,000 pre-selected individuals and 150,000 pre-selected businesses are interviewed. From these numbers, the BLS draws inferences for the entire nation and those figures appear in the report. Yes, the figures are estimates, not reporting actuals.
Here is the resulting main BLS Employment Status Table:
Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
Notice the sharp rise of half a million people dropped into the the Not In Labor category in November, almost as if they had been taken directly from the Unemployed figure of the previous month and transferred there. Because Not In Labor Force is not included in the unemployment percent calculation, that most certainly has a reducing effect on the rate. And thus by reducing the Civilian Labor Force by this "transfer", that has a double whammy effect of lowering the rate. Could it be that this many unemployed people didn't "officially" look for work during the previous 4 weeks (the 4-week reporting period)? That would indeed get these "discouraged" workers ejected from the "Civilian Labor Force" category and punished into "Not In Labor Force".
The Persons Who Currently Want A Job figure is part of Not In Labor Force, and thus these 6.595 milion people are
not included in the 13.303 million officially Unemployed count. In addition, I've spoken wth a BLS agent who told me that this Currently Want A Job Figure is not at all accurate with respect to reality, as the number they report is simply way understated, as these people who have dropped off the reporting survey radar are simply ignored, with no official assumption made about them. The agent said that, off the record, the Persons Who Currently Want A Job likely reflects about 60% of the real total, as there's simply no way to tabulate, for instance, those who are homeless. Thus the real figure here is really about 10.991 million.
Thus when you add that 10,991 to the 13,303, a more realistic number of unemployed is 24.294 million. Then, recalculating to obtain a truer unemployment rate ((10,991 + 13,303) / (10,991 + 153,893)), we arrive at 14.73%, a more realistic national unemployment rate.
I believe the public is being misinformed, not merely mathematically but substantively as well.
In addition, these figures say nothing about the nature of the 278,000 jobs-increase from the previous reporting period. Considering 'tis the season to buy jolly, it would not surprise me if the jobs increase was greatly minimum wage factory, warehouse, and retail sales clerk in nature, complete with attendant minimum non-living wage remuneration.
Thus with regard to the 9.0-to-8.6 percent "happy days are here again" reduction in the "official" unemployment rate, that is a pretty good example of the "lies, damn lies, and statistics" adage.
