• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

Rhapsody1447

Skeptical Optimist
DP Veteran
Joined
Aug 25, 2006
Messages
1,510
Reaction score
707
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Conservative
Unemployment in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in November to a two-year low, while employers added fewer workers than projected and earnings eased, indicating the labor market is making limited progress.

The jobless rate declined to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March 2009, from 9 percent, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Payrolls climbed 120,000, with more than half the hiring coming from retailers and temporary help agencies, after a revised 100,000 rise in October that was more than initially estimated. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain of 125,000.

Companies like DirectTV have said they will keep a tight rein on spending and employment in 2012, reflecting concern over the outlook for demand, Europe’s debt crisis and the U.S. deficit. The scant number of jobs is limiting wage gains and restraining consumers’ ability to boost spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.

“The labor market is showing very gradual progress, but it is progress,Stephen Stanley chief economist for Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut said before the report. “Things are getting a little bit better on the economy. Firms are hiring but staying trim.”

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6% - Bloomberg

Good news for everybody except Gingrich/Romney. These economists are becoming laughable with their predictions as it seems almost every job report misses expectations and is later revised by 2 standard deviations. This one they were "right on" as payrolls came in as expected at 120k but the unemployment rate unexpectedly decline. Some pessimists are attributing this to a decline in the labor force. Either way, unemployment rate is now below 9%, the lowest it's been since it peaked at 10.1% back in March 2009.
 
Last edited:

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6% - Bloomberg

Good news for everybody except Gingrich/Romney. These economists are becoming laughable with their predictions as it seems almost every job report misses expectations and is later revised by 2 standard deviations. This one they were "right on" as payrolls came in as expected at 120k but the unemployment rate unexpectedly decline. Some pessimists are attributing this to a decline in the labor force. Either way, unemployment rate is now below 9%, the lowest it's been since it peaked at 10.1% back in March 2009.


Either they are duping America, or not counting some people that absolutely be counted, or I don't know what, because I sure don't see the problem getting better.

They tinker around with these stats in DC to the point where no one is telling the truth any more. I am disappointed in the lies.

j-mac
 

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6% - Bloomberg

Good news for everybody except Gingrich/Romney. These economists are becoming laughable with their predictions as it seems almost every job report misses expectations and is later revised by 2 standard deviations. This one they were "right on" as payrolls came in as expected at 120k but the unemployment rate unexpectedly decline. Some pessimists are attributing this to a decline in the labor force. Either way, unemployment rate is now below 9%, the lowest it's been since it peaked at 10.1% back in March 2009.

That's because people have fallen off of unemployment and aren't looking for work - so they are no longer counted.

It's an illusion - it does not mean that all those people actually *found* employment.
 
seasonal employment due to the holidays.......happens every year
 
Everything you guys said is true. Almost all the pundits attribute it to the decline in the labor force from 64.2% to 64% and from the article: "Payrolls climbed 120,000, with more than half the hiring coming from retailers and temporary help agencies, after a revised 100,000 rise in October." I agree with you 100% j-mac as I pointed out the stupidity of the estimates and the unreliability of the numbers in my OP. Here are some very telling charts from the report. Sorry for the HUGE images:

Persons Who Want A Job Now.jpgAverage Duration Of Unempllyment.jpgNot im Labor Force.jpgParticipation Rate.jpg

Unfortunately most people don't care to understand this part. It's a great political talking point to say the unemployment rate is at it's lowest since 2009 and under 9%
 
unemployment numbers are meaningless until they count everyone who is unemployed.

i can see excluding those who genuinely don't want to work or cannot work. but those who want a job and can't find one have to be counted.
 
I agree, they aren't counting all they should. However, I have seen some progress in our area. A couple of new small businesses are going into a fairly stagnant small town, and I do see some big construction projects in several areas. Construction = jobs.
 
Everything you guys said is true. Almost all the pundits attribute it to the decline in the labor force from 64.2% to 64% and from the article: "Payrolls climbed 120,000, with more than half the hiring coming from retailers and temporary help agencies, after a revised 100,000 rise in October." I agree with you 100% j-mac as I pointed out the stupidity of the estimates and the unreliability of the numbers in my OP. Here are some very telling charts from the report. Sorry for the HUGE images:



Unfortunately most people don't care to understand this part. It's a great political talking point to say the unemployment rate is at it's lowest since 2009 and under 9%


Absolutely. And the talking point starts out with the election season about to go into primary voting is no mistake. This is a political move by MSM to shore up a President who has been a complete disaster for this country economically. consider this:

The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, was forecast to hold at 9 percent. The decrease in the jobless rate reflected a 278,000 gain in employment at the same time 315,000 Americans left the labor force.

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6% - Bloomberg

That's 315K right there no longer counted. I guess they don't count anymore...Are they even still here?


j-mac
 
I agree, they aren't counting all they should. However, I have seen some progress in our area. A couple of new small businesses are going into a fairly stagnant small town, and I do see some big construction projects in several areas. Construction = jobs.

Construction is one indicator, another good local indicator for an area is if there are new bank branches opening up in an area. Banks = money flow into an area economy.

j-mac
 

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6% - Bloomberg

Good news for everybody except Gingrich/Romney. These economists are becoming laughable with their predictions as it seems almost every job report misses expectations and is later revised by 2 standard deviations. This one they were "right on" as payrolls came in as expected at 120k but the unemployment rate unexpectedly decline. Some pessimists are attributing this to a decline in the labor force. Either way, unemployment rate is now below 9%, the lowest it's been since it peaked at 10.1% back in March 2009.

Of course the unemployment rate is sharply down. People are hiring for Christmas. After the holidays, watch it climb back up again.
 
Either they are duping America, or not counting some people that absolutely be counted, or I don't know what, because I sure don't see the problem getting better.

So when economic data does not mesh with right wing talking points, THEN the data is incomplete? :lamo
 
Either they are duping America, or not counting some people that absolutely be counted, or I don't know what, because I sure don't see the problem getting better.

They tinker around with these stats in DC to the point where no one is telling the truth any more. I am disappointed in the lies.

j-mac

partisan much? good god, mac, do you HEAR yourself? we have good news, and you don't like it because god forbid obama get any kind of credit. perhaps you don't see things getting better because you don't want to see them getting better?
 
Of course the unemployment rate is sharply down. People are hiring for Christmas. After the holidays, watch it climb back up again.

this new rate isn't seasonally adjusted?
 
So when economic data does not mesh with right wing talking points, THEN the data is incomplete? :lamo

Or.... The data, all the data, doesn't show the unemployment situation to be anywhere near as positive as a .4% drop in unemployment usually indicates.

If you dispute what the data says, then by all means, let's hear it... If you don't, then your comment comes off as rather pathetic.
 
Last edited:
Or.... The data, all the data, doesn't show the unemployment situation to be anywhere near as positive as the .4% drop in the unemployment that the government published indicates.

If you dispute what the data says, then by all means, let's hear it... If you don't, then your comment comes off as rather pathetic.

From bls.gov

  • Government employment continued to trend down in November, with a decline in the U.S. Postal Service (-5,000). Employment in both state government and local government has been trending down since the second half of 2008.
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 120,000 in November, in line with the average gain for the prior 12 months (+131,000). The private sector added 140,000 jobs, as employment rose in a number of service-providing industries. Government employment continued to trend down.
  • The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 64.0 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little.
  • In November, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 432,000 to 7.6 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed.
  • The number of unemployed persons, at 13.3 million, was down by 594,000 in November. The labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed, was down by a little more than half that amount.

If you don't agree with the mechanics behind the unemployment rate, then so be it. But to question the integrity of the data when it is politically inconvenient comes off as hyperpartisan nonsense.
 
Another chart that I thought was very telling. It's important to distinguish against job losses and job gains. Although in the chart job losses are ticking down, new jobs remain at all time lows. Undoubtedly this is a sign of uncertainty by employers and will be the number one indicator of the unemployment figure going forward. It seems at this point in the recovery employers have cut most of the jobs they needed to but remain hesitant to hire new workers.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf

Gains vs Losses.JPG
 
The labor market, those looking for jobs shrunk by 315K people that gave up! There is your percentage drop, but it isn't very honest is it?


j-mac
 
partisan much? good god, mac, do you HEAR yourself? we have good news, and you don't like it because god forbid obama get any kind of credit. perhaps you don't see things getting better because you don't want to see them getting better?

Reality is non partisan. Analogy here, if I owe you $20 bucks, and you say forget it, I don't get to claim that I paid you back do I?


j-mac
 
Reality is non partisan. Analogy here, if I owe you $20 bucks, and you say forget it, I don't get to claim that I paid you back do I?


j-mac

we have always measured this way.
 
additionally, it seems like every report in the past several years begins with the term "unexpectedly," whether it's a rise or drop. it looks like economists might need some new models.
 

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6% - Bloomberg

Good news for everybody except Gingrich/Romney. These economists are becoming laughable with their predictions as it seems almost every job report misses expectations and is later revised by 2 standard deviations. This one they were "right on" as payrolls came in as expected at 120k but the unemployment rate unexpectedly decline. Some pessimists are attributing this to a decline in the labor force. Either way, unemployment rate is now below 9%, the lowest it's been since it peaked at 10.1% back in March 2009.



wait, so, now, in November December, 120,000 retail jobs were created (besides those lost off the roles), You don't say! :ssst:


Give me the numbers for January and we'll talk. :lol:
 
So when economic data does not mesh with right wing talking points, THEN the data is incomplete? :lamo

It would seem that everyone realizes that the data is not complete......other than yourself it would seem. This bogus way of counting unemployment was created long before Obama and it was equally as bogus then.

Just because those 315,000 have nowhere else to look for a job does not mean they no longer want a job.
 
Last edited:
Reality is non partisan. Analogy here, if I owe you $20 bucks, and you say forget it, I don't get to claim that I paid you back do I?


j-mac

Also, she does not get to claim that $20 as an outstand debt owed to her.
 
additionally, it seems like every report in the past several years begins with the term "unexpectedly," whether it's a rise or drop. it looks like economists might need some new models.

I do get a kick out of this. It must be nice to be wrong every month and still keep your job.
 
The labor market, those looking for jobs shrunk by 315K people that gave up! There is your percentage drop, but it isn't very honest is it?
j-mac

Unsubstantiated nonsense. Table A-1 clearly states that there are 594,000 less unemployed people than last month. Whether or not they "gave up" is something you cannot determine strictly from the participation rate.

How many people retired, went back to school, started their own business, etc...?
 
Back
Top Bottom