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Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll, keeps momentum

Demon of Light

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Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., won the Iowa Straw poll on Saturday, turning aside a surge by Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and maintaining the momenum with her rising campaign.

Bachmann captured 4,823 votes out of the total 16,892, while Paul captured 4,671. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty finished third 2,293 votes.

"From one Iowan to another, I will be the pace car, if you will, to set the tone and set the pace for bringing this country back to greatness," she said during her address at the Hilton Coliseum Saturday afternoon.

Source: USA Today

What is really impressive is that Paul was a mere 150 votes from winning himself. Unfortunately the fact he did not win gives the media an excuse to focus on the big win for Bachmann and the big loss for Pawlenty while completely glossing over the runner-up and the polls putting him third at 16% in Iowa.
 
Bachmann winning was expected, but I think she needed a bit more than what she got to really stand out. Paul always does well with these and never wins anything that counts, which should continue. Pawlenty I think did best out of the top 3, and finally looks like he might have a chance to go awhile once primary season starts. Really looking forward to seeing what the rest got. Newt is probably toast after this.
 
Good news for Romney, as neither Bachman nor Dean has a chance in hell of getting the nomination. Pawlenty might have pulled it off he had won, but now he's probably toast.
 
Bachmann winning was expected, but I think she needed a bit more than what she got to really stand out. Paul always does well with these and never wins anything that counts, which should continue. Pawlenty I think did best out of the top 3, and finally looks like he might have a chance to go awhile once primary season starts. Really looking forward to seeing what the rest got. Newt is probably toast after this.

Back in 2007 he came in fifth with less than a third as many votes.

Good news for Romney, as neither Bachman nor Dean has a chance in hell of getting the nomination. Pawlenty might have pulled it off he had won, but now he's probably toast.

Dean? Who the hell is Dean?
 
Bachmann winning was expected, but I think she needed a bit more than what she got to really stand out. Paul always does well with these and never wins anything that counts, which should continue. Pawlenty I think did best out of the top 3, and finally looks like he might have a chance to go awhile once primary season starts. Really looking forward to seeing what the rest got. Newt is probably toast after this.

FOX is reporting that Perry got about as many votes (voters had to write him in) as Romney did. I think the lesson going forward is that Bachmann and Paul are both a similar kind of candidate; and this becomes a Perry/Romney game, with Bachmann and Paul playing the role of spoiler. The question becomes can they pull enough voters for Perry to keep him from beating Romney, who I think (now that Bachman will not be The Lead Anti Romney) will have trouble significantly increasing his followership.
 
Back in 2007 he came in fifth with less than a third as many votes.

Let me clarify for you. Paul always does well in informal polls. He took 5th with 9 % last time despite having only been to Iowa 3 or 4 times. He placed second in the Utah GOP convention poll. He also placed second in the Cobb county poll and the NTU. Third in the Illinois straw poll. And do on and so on. He then went on and won a total of 14 delegates in the primaries. His placing second today was pretty much expected and actually a disappointment in that he did not win. He did not exceed expectations.

For liberals like me, this is all great news. The top two in the poll where the two most fringe element loonies in the republican party.
 
FOX is reporting that Perry got about as many votes (voters had to write him in) as Romney did. I think the lesson going forward is that Bachmann and Paul are both a similar kind of candidate; and this becomes a Perry/Romney game, with Bachmann and Paul playing the role of spoiler. The question becomes can they pull enough voters for Perry to keep him from beating Romney, who I think (now that Bachman will not be The Lead Anti Romney) will have trouble significantly increasing his followership.

I'm not so sure that Perry will take over that role from Bachman. Perry is way too weak on immigration to appeal to hardcore conservatives.
 
FOX is reporting that Perry got about as many votes (voters had to write him in) as Romney did. I think the lesson going forward is that Bachmann and Paul are both a similar kind of candidate; and this becomes a Perry/Romney game, with Bachmann and Paul playing the role of spoiler. The question becomes can they pull enough voters for Perry to keep him from beating Romney, who I think (now that Bachman will not be The Lead Anti Romney) will have trouble significantly increasing his followership.

I see Perry/Romney, with Pawlenty if he can maintain the momentum he got her. The rest are all pretty much longshots at best at this point. Cain, Gingritch can pretty much hang it up now(though I think that was being said about McCain at one point last time around).I don't see Perry wining just because I think mainstream republicans will see him not doing as well against Obama.
 
I just saw the actual numbers for every one and withdraw my comment on Cain being toast. Gingrich however failed miserably. he got about 1/4 the votes Cain did.
 
Michelle did a great job. I was impressed. Ron Paul, however, destroyed himself in my eyes. He actually wants Iran to get The Bomb. What a dangerous jackass.
 
Michelle did a great job. I was impressed. Ron Paul, however, destroyed himself in my eyes. He actually wants Iran to get The Bomb. What a dangerous jackass.

Bachman actually WANTS to destroy our economy by defaulting on the debt. She is 100 times scarier than Paul, and he's plenty scary.
 
I see Perry/Romney, with Pawlenty if he can maintain the momentum he got her. The rest are all pretty much longshots at best at this point. Cain, Gingritch can pretty much hang it up now(though I think that was being said about McCain at one point last time around).

that's a good point about McCain - but McCain benefited from some very specific election dynamics; most specifically Romney and Huckabee fighting each other. I think we are seeing Pawlenty and Bachman playing the same role; but where I would argue for Bachmann is that her followers see her as standing for something within Republican Politics that Pawlenty just doesn't. Bachmann is the Huckabee of 2012, methinks.

I don't see Perry wining just because I think mainstream republicans will see him not doing as well against Obama.

hmmm, yet he places second before he even starts running? I rather suspect that the opposite is in effect - that most Republican voters (like me) will see him as the NotRomney that can win (Romney would be hampered in attacking Obamacare, but Perry has the perfect mirror-image economic record to place against Obama's); whereas Bachmann probably couldn't.
 
that's a good point about McCain - but McCain benefited from some very specific election dynamics; most specifically Romney and Huckabee fighting each other. I think we are seeing Pawlenty and Bachman playing the same role; but where I would argue for Bachmann is that her followers see her as standing for something within Republican Politics that Pawlenty just doesn't. Bachmann is the Huckabee of 2012, methinks.



hmmm, yet he places second before he even starts running? I rather suspect that the opposite is in effect - that most Republican voters (like me) will see him as the NotRomney that can win (Romney would be hampered in attacking Obamacare, but Perry has the perfect mirror-image economic record to place against Obama's); whereas Bachmann probably couldn't.

Bachmann might be the Huckabee of 2012, but a less sane one. Definately less likeable
 
Cpwill, you are going to have a better grasp of how conservative voters see candidates, so will take your word for it and wait and see.
 
Michelle did a great job. I was impressed. Ron Paul, however, destroyed himself in my eyes. He actually wants Iran to get The Bomb. What a dangerous jackass.
Nice spin, however inaccurate. Paul said he understands why Iran wants nukes - hell most of Iran's neighbors have them. It is human nature to want to protect themselves. If they were to get a nuke it would be irrelevant anyway. It's not like they have an army/airforce/navy to use it.

Your argument is like saying that you are for the 2nd amendment except for your neighbor because you don't like him.
 
that's a good point about McCain - but McCain benefited from some very specific election dynamics; most specifically Romney and Huckabee fighting each other. I think we are seeing Pawlenty and Bachman playing the same role; but where I would argue for Bachmann is that her followers see her as standing for something within Republican Politics that Pawlenty just doesn't. Bachmann is the Huckabee of 2012, methinks.



hmmm, yet he places second before he even starts running? I rather suspect that the opposite is in effect - that most Republican voters (like me) will see him as the NotRomney that can win (Romney would be hampered in attacking Obamacare, but Perry has the perfect mirror-image economic record to place against Obama's); whereas Bachmann probably couldn't.

Just my 2 cents but Bachmann will end up like Huckabee did in 08; sitting out the final race. She has very little accomplishment to run on. What's she done? Voted against Obamacare and voted for Cut, Cap, and Balance? That's fine and dandy but about it, which will not convince independents like I think Romney will. Perry has experience working with a balanced budget amendment in Texas but would get much fewer Texan votes than you might expect because of the cuts he's made in public education.

I'm not thrilled with this process either; especially with the primaries. Little states like Iowa, NH, and S. Carolina have way too much input in selecting the candidates. All primaries should be on the same day just like in the general election.
 
Nice spin, however inaccurate. Paul said he understands why Iran wants nukes - hell most of Iran's neighbors have them. It is human nature to want to protect themselves. If they were to get a nuke it would be irrelevant anyway. It's not like they have an army/airforce/navy to use it.

Your argument is like saying that you are for the 2nd amendment except for your neighbor because you don't like him.

Holy ****, it's Vauge!

You need to post up here more often!
 
110813_bachmann_rule_465.jpg
 
Bachmann winning was expected, but I think she needed a bit more than what she got to really stand out. Paul always does well with these and never wins anything that counts, which should continue. Pawlenty I think did best out of the top 3, and finally looks like he might have a chance to go awhile once primary season starts. Really looking forward to seeing what the rest got. Newt is probably toast after this.

Do you think she will carry the state?
 
Perhaps we should take this straw poll with a grain of salt, or perhaps a stick of straw:

So how could the Iowa Straw Poll not be important?

The candidates pay people to attend the Straw Poll, thus calling the value of the event into question.
Iowa republicans haven't been great at predicting future winners of the GOP presidential nomination or election.
Not every Iowa Straw Poll winner goes on to capture the Iowa caucus.
The event dooms many GOP presidential hopefuls. So Straw Poll candidates may walk themselves into a campaign dead end.
The event this year has been "light" on candidate attendance.
Sarah Palin's appearance at the event this year has distracted attention from the Iowa Straw Poll to herself.
Rick Perry's official announcement of his presidential ambitions today did an end-run around the Iowa poll.
 
The straw poll is a waste of time, which is why Romney didn't waste his time and money.
 
Nice spin, however inaccurate. Paul said he understands why Iran wants nukes - hell most of Iran's neighbors have them. It is human nature to want to protect themselves. If they were to get a nuke it would be irrelevant anyway. It's not like they have an army/airforce/navy to use it.

Your argument is like saying that you are for the 2nd amendment except for your neighbor because you don't like him.

Another thing to add to this conversation.

"If Rick Santorum and when Rick Santorum is President, Iran will not get a nuclear weapon because the world as we know it...will be no more"

-Rick Santorum - talking in third person...

If he truely believes that then it's possible to assume that him and others on stage are prepare to go to war with Iran. It's just a question of when I imagine for them.

I'm just wondering if we're going to do another Iraq with Iran (nation build, oil etc..). Although I believe in one of the 2007-8 debates, they've didn't rule out a preemptive nuclear strike. If you take a step back, we don't even know if Iran has any nuclear weapons, yet we've already threaten their country with a possible nuclear strike. For folks who say they're religious people, they sure find war, bombing, and killing as a logical solution to solving problems.
 
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