U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

cpwill · Jul 29, 2011

exactly. the problem is the debt, not the debt ceiling.

CriticalThought · Jul 29, 2011

cpwill said:
hey! that's what we should have done! a giant demand-side stimulus package! gosh, why didn't we think of that in 2008 and then again even bigger in 2009?

As far as we know, the stimulus did nothing, it hurt us, or it saved us from a terrible depression. The problem with trying to determine the effect is that we don't know how bad things would have gotten without it. I didn't particularly support it, mainly because I didn't see how it would improve lender confidence during a period of great foreclosure and market readjustment.

CriticalThought · Jul 29, 2011

cpwill said:
exactly. the problem is the debt, not the debt ceiling.

:roll:

Confidence is the issue right now. Paying off the debt is part of improving that, but it is only one small part of the bigger problem.

CriticalThought · Jul 29, 2011

Conservative said:
Looks to me like someone else buying the media rhetoric, that is bull****. This is all about spending too much and increasing the credit card limit so they can borrow more money to pay for that overspending. Our Credit rating is going to be downgraded because of spending too much, not because of increasing the credit limit.

:roll:

Funny. I take the same line of 99% of economists and I'm "buying into media rhetoric".

cpwill · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
As far as we know, the stimulus did nothing, it hurt us, or it saved us from a terrible depression

:lol: hell, why don't we give it credit for halting an alien invasion as well? "Billions would have died but Noble Super Obama Saved Us All!!!"

The problem with trying to determine the effect is that we don't know how bad things would have gotten without it. I didn't particularly support it, mainly because I didn't see how it would improve lender confidence during a period of great foreclosure and market readjustment.

it won't. in fact, of those willing to lend and invest, it took much of the money with which they were going to do so.

cpwill · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
:roll:

Funny. I take the same line of 99% of economists and I'm "buying into media rhetoric".

i would like to see a citation of that number?

cpwill · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
:roll:

Confidence is the issue right now. Paying off the debt is part of improving that, but it is only one small part of the bigger problem.

indeed. there are three huge killers right now that are destroying predictability: 1. the debt 2. a rapidly increasing regulatory burden (in particular Obamacare, but plenty else besides) and 3. uncertainty over future tax rates.

Taylor · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
:roll:

I'll make this incredibly simple for you.

Please don't, I can't take any more of your simplistic explanations.

I was only making the point that there's a lot more to the market than confidence. My comments concerning the debt ceiling were in relation to rising inflation, not the markets. Take note of what's referenced in the quote box next time.

And, while I find it rather amusing that you seem to be blaming the current debt talks for major declines in GDP occurring as far back as January... it's not really a tangent I'd like to explore.

CriticalThought said:
And as for your dumbass statement. Ethopia's GDP grew 10.9% between 2010 and 2011. Zimbabwe's GDP grew 9.3%. A large part of that was due to microlending.

Wow! Now, that's just astonishing! Sounds like their economy is cracking like a whip. I can picture them all dancing in the streets, with ipods in hand and a fresh pair of nike's underfoot.

Now, how exactly do we calculate 10.9% of "diddly"?

CriticalThought said:
Why do I have to constantly pwn you conservatives?

You don't have to. Since you appear to be operating in your own little world of fantasy, you're free to imagine whatever you please. Maybe you'd like to relax for a bit and take a leisurely ride on a rainbow pony?

CriticalThought · Jul 29, 2011

cpwill said:
:lol: hell, why don't we give it credit for halting an alien invasion as well? "Billions would have died but Noble Super Obama Saved Us All!!!"

You could say the same thing about butterfly wings flapping in Australia, but that is the point. You can't predict what would have happened without it. Of course, it seems you gravitated towards one outcome more than the others, which shows you are responding emotionally and reading only what you want to read, not what I am actually posting.

it won't. in fact, of those willing to lend and invest, it took much of the money with which they were going to do so.

:roll:

We borrowed money for the stimulus, we didn't take it from tax revenues.

Conservative · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
:roll:

Confidence is the issue right now. Paying off the debt is part of improving that, but it is only one small part of the bigger problem.

Do you get your annual credit report? How does increasing your credit card debt affect your credit score especiallyw when you have rising debt?

Conservative · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
:roll:

Funny. I take the same line of 99% of economists and I'm "buying into media rhetoric".

99% of economists? Sounds like an exaggeration to me. prove it?

CriticalThought · Jul 29, 2011

Taylor said:
And, while I find it rather amusing that you seem to be blaming the current debt talks for major declines in GDP occurring as far back as January... it's not really a tangent I'd like to explore.

Actually, I'm blaming the entire political climate since the mid term elections for the damage to consumer and lender confidence. Whether you want to explore it or not, it is the main culprit.

Wow! Now, that's just astonishing! Sounds like their economy is cracking like a whip. I can picture them all dancing in the streets, with ipods in hand and a fresh pair of nike's underfoot.

Now, how exactly do we calculate 10.9% of "diddly"?

The fact is that it is growth that comes from banks lending and consumers spending. And that comes from confidence.

Conservative · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
You could say the same thing about butterfly wings flapping in Australia, but that is the point. You can't predict what would have happened without it. Of course, it seems you gravitated towards one outcome more than the others, which shows you are responding emotionally and reading only what you want to read, not what I am actually posting.

:roll:

We borrowed money for the stimulus, we didn't take it from tax revenues.

As you stated the stimulus was a total and complete failure and here we are two years AFTER the recession ended and Obama has generated the following results:

Obama record, 15.1 million officially unemployed TODAY 2 1/2 years later, 16.2% total unemployment or underemployment over 24 million TODAY, 4 trillion added to the debt as of the end of fiscal year 2011, and a rising misery index(7.83 to 12.67).

Now we can add. .4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth to that list of liberal successes

CriticalThought · Jul 29, 2011

Conservative said:
99% of economists? Sounds like an exaggeration to me. prove it?

Disprove it.

Maybe then you folks would actually do some research on the issue outside of partisan bloggers and journalists.

Conservative · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
Disprove it.

Maybe then you folks would actually do some research on the issue outside of partisan bloggers and journalists.

You made the claim of 99% so prove it. The results show even those economists supporting Obama to be wrong as evidenced by the GDP growth numbers and the Obama results yet you want to continue to buy their rhetoric?

Obama record, 15.1 million officially unemployed TODAY 2 1/2 years later, 16.2% total unemployment or underemployment over 24 million TODAY, 4 trillion added to the debt as of the end of fiscal year 2011, and a rising misery index(7.83 to 12.67).

CriticalThought · Jul 29, 2011

Conservative said:
As you stated the stimulus was a total and complete failure and here we are two years AFTER the recession ended and Obama has generated the following results:

I stated there was no way to know the effect. Is this the best you can do now? You can distort my words? That is sad.

Obama record, 15.1 million officially unemployed TODAY 2 1/2 years later, 16.2% total unemployment or underemployment over 24 million TODAY, 4 trillion added to the debt as of the end of fiscal year 2011, and a rising misery index(7.83 to 12.67).

Now we can add. .4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth to that list of liberal successes

What is sad here is that Congress makes the laws, the president only has the power to veto them, and yet you entirely wish to lay it on his lap to blame him. What is sadder is you want to make this into a partisan issue when both sides have contributed immensely to this problem going back 30 years. Please keep it up. You are contributing to killing our economy by playing political rhetoric rather than actually focusing on the actual problem.

It is the economy! Namely consumer and lender confidence!

Get that through your thick skull! It is not Obama. It is not Republican or Democrat! It is a political climate that you are contributing to that is hurting us! You are the problem!

Taylor · Jul 29, 2011

AdamT said:
Yes, it is bad. So what's your point? What would conservatives have done that wouldn't have actually made things much worse -- let alone better?

Well that came out of left field - why all the guilt?

It's like I just walked out of the pantry with an open jar in hand and said "Shoot, we're about out of peanut butter"... and you come tearing into the kitchen, "Yeah!? So what if the jar's almost empty! What, do you expect me to eat nothing? Are you really going to sit here and say you've never had a PBJ sandwich? Are you!!?"

Conservative · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
I stated there was no way to know the effect. Is this the best you can do now? You can distort my words? That is sad.

What is sad here is that Congress makes the laws, the president only has the power to veto them, and yet you entirely wish to lay it on his lap to blame him. What is sadder is you want to make this into a partisan issue when both sides have contributed immensely to this problem going back 30 years. Please keep it up. You are contributing to killing our economy by playing political rhetoric rather than actually focusing on the actual problem.

It is the economy! Namely consumer and lender confidence!

Get that through your thick skull! It is not Obama. It is not Republican or Democrat! It is a political climate that you are contributing to that is hurting us! You are the problem!

Yes, Congress makes the laws and prior to January 2011 the Democrats took total control of that Congress in January 2007. Obama had a blank check and generated those numbers. The actual problem is we have a Community Organizer as President and not a leader. Confidence comes from good leadership and we have none right now

Taylor · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
The have taken the US economy hostage by using threat of default in an attempt to instill fiscally irresponsible measures that have no hope of passing the Senate or White House. The uncertainty they have created by doing so has been devastating to consumer and lender confidence.

Devastating? That seems to be putting it lightly. It's not very often that a debate goes months back in time and kicks the first quarter GDP squarely in the ass.

pbrauer · Jul 29, 2011

Conservative said:
As you stated the stimulus was a total and complete failure and here we are two years AFTER the recession ended and Obama has generated the following results:

Obama record, 15.1 million officially unemployed TODAY 2 1/2 years later, 16.2% total unemployment or underemployment over 24 million TODAY, 4 trillion added to the debt as of the end of fiscal year 2011, and a rising misery index(7.83 to 12.67).

Now we can add. .4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth to that list of liberal successes

Conservative · Jul 29, 2011

pbrauer said:

When are you going to realize that chart does nothing for your argument? Notice the actual Obama debt 2009-2010 vs. projections? Shows the accuracy of projections, doesn't it?

Taylor · Jul 29, 2011

pbrauer said:

Yeah, well according to projections issued in Jan. 2008, we're due for surpluses as far as the eye can see, and were expected to average just 4.9% unemployment for 2010-2013.

We kind of suck with budget projections.

Sheesh, it's only been a couple years since those 2009 projections, and they're already proving to be hundreds of billions off.

The only thing we can really be certain about is that when bad things do happen, it's because of Bush, Beck, and those tea party rabble-rousers stirring mistrust.

PeteEU · Jul 29, 2011

Conservative said:
Yes, Congress makes the laws

I see...and yet who is it that signs them into law.. and can veto stuff?

and prior to January 2011 the Democrats took total control of that Congress in January 2007.

And who exactly was in the White House in January 2007 to January 2009? Who was it that was in power when the economy tanked? Who was in power when the housing bubble was created and put very much put into overdrive? Who was in power when that bubble finally as predicted went BOOOM? Who did nothing to prevent the bubble bursting? It was not Obama... nor the Democrats... no it was the GOP who had absolute power from 2001 to 2007. They did NOTHING but pile on cost after cost while cutting revenue time and time again and growing the debt.

Obama had a blank check and generated those numbers.

So it is Obama's fault that the previous President started 2 wars that were not funded, cut the taxes for the uber rich, bailed out the banks and so on and so on? You do realize the biggest hit to the US deficit is the Bush tax cuts right? Next comes 2 wars...

The actual problem is we have a Community Organizer as President and not a leader.

Rather have a community organizer than a half dead war veteran with mental issues and a VP that has the IQ of a snail. And like it or not, this Community Organizer has done far better than the previous President, a daddy's boy who never worked a day in his life.

Confidence comes from good leadership and we have none right now

I actually agree.. but it is not the leadership in the White House that is the main problem... it is the lack of balls and leadership in the US congress. When you have a group of idiots who refuse to compromise then you have a serious problem and when that small group wields such much power in one party that it has the ability to block any compromise and drive the US off the cliff... then you have a serious problem.

Do you want leadership? Tell that to the "sad tangerine" aka Bohener to say "**** the tea party" and take those who want to compromise and join the Democrats in house to pass something that avoids default. But what does he do? He adds a poison pill to his own plan to get some Tea Party support!.. that aint leadership, that is caving to fanatics and frankly... terrorists.

pbrauer · Jul 29, 2011

Conservative said:
When are you going to realize that chart does nothing for your argument? Notice the actual Obama debt 2009-2010 vs. projections? Shows the accuracy of projections, doesn't it?

Look at 2009 which is Bush's budget, a $1.2 trillion deficit.

Objective Voice · Jul 29, 2011

CriticalThought said:
:roll:

The markets work on confidence. The pony show of not raising he debt ceiling has done nothing to improve confidence. To the contrary, it has directly resulted in hurting confidence and thereby hurting the markets. The longer the game goes on, the worse the impact will be.

Taylor said:
Oh, really? Rather than spending all this money on foreign aid, maybe we should just send Tony Robbins out to Ethiopia or Zimbabwe and really get things pumping.

"[Sic]There's turbulence in our capital markets, and it's been going on since August (2007). We're all over, we're looking for ways to work our way through it. I've got great confidence in our markets, thay're resilient, they're flexible, but this has taken some time and we're focused on it." - Henry Paulson during interview with Matt Lauer, NBC's Today Show

"There's a broad lack of confidence out there. We're hearing it from our clients, our customers; we're seeing it in our prime brokerage." - Jamie Dimon, CEO, JP Morgan Chase

Quotes taken from the book, "Too Big To Fail," by Andrew Ross Sorkin (pages 32 and 242, respectively). But there are several other such quotes from the book that also speak of investor confidence, or the lack thereof, in U.S. markets. It must be pointed out, however, that this lack of confidence didn't start with the Obama Administration (though many say it has been exasborated). It began in the Spring of 2007 and hasn't quite let up since.

'Nuff Said.