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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 June 2020

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 June 2020

There are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 11: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 1: Alabama

Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – One of the Republicans challengers to McSally has withdrawn from the primary race. McSally only opponent is now Daniel McCarthy. No contest. On the Democratic side, former Astronaut Mark Kelly and Mohammad Arif, businessman and perennial candidate are vying for a chance to take on McSally. Kelly wins the Democratic nomination easily and wins in November. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville advanced to a runoff on the Republican side which was delayed until July. Tuberville is the favorite. Tuberville will replace Jones in November. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – Former Governor John Hickenlooper will win the Democratic primary over Andrew Romanoff and then easily defeat Gardner. If this race wasn’t a switch or flip of parties, Colorado would go into the safe Democratic column instead of being on my watch list. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – 7 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. Jon Ossoff should come out the winner in the June primary, although he might need a runoff to do so. Perdue wins in November in a very close race. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primaries for this seat. All declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats along 11 others who will all appear on the November ballot. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls with Collins at 30% and the other three in the high teens. Everyone else in single digits. All the November election will determine is who faces Collins in the January runoff. Collins wins the runoff in January 2021. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – 4 Democrats are in the race for the democratic nomination to challenge Ernst. Theresa Greenfield will be the Democratic candidate to challenge Ernst. This race is nip and tuck between these two. Even so, I am sticking with the incumbent Ernst this month. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. 3 Democrats and 8 Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination for this open seat. Republican Kris Kobach is the favorite to win the GOP nomination with Barbara Bollier winning on the Democratic side. This should be a cake walk for the Republican, but the polls put this as a very close race. I’m sticking with the Republican to win this seat. Only because this is Kansas. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kentucky McConnell R – There are now 7 Republicans challenging McConnell for the GOP nomination along with 10 Democrats vying for the right to challenge McConnell in November. McConnell should pull it out in his primary and McGrath wins on the Democratic side. In November, McConnell edges out McGrath in a squeaker. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Maine Collins R – Sara Gideon will win the Democratic Primary for the rights to challenge Collins in November. Gideon will keep right on winning. Democratic pick up 51 R 49 D

Montana Daines R – It will be former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock vs. Republican incumbent Steve Daines in November. Bullock has pulled out to a 5 point lead in the most recent polls. He’ll flip this seat from red to blue in November. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

North Carolina Tillis R – This is a pure tossup race between incumbent Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham. I’m staying with Tillis only because he is the incumbent. No other reason. Republican hold 50 R, 50 D.

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 15 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 5 Democrats. I’m not about to predict who the nominees will be for November. Who the nominees are doesn’t matter as the Republican will win. Republican hold. R 50 D 50

I moved Michigan into the safe Democratic column this month leaving the democrats with only one vulnerable seat, Alabama. Republicans McConnell, Kentucky and Tillis, North Carolina remain razor thin favorites in pure tossup races. Both Georgia seats have tightened. Not good news for the GOP. The senate will be tied 50-50. Who controls the senate will be decided by who wins the presidency? The Vice President will cast the deciding vote in case of a tie.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. An impossible task. The Democrats have 27 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, down two from last month. The Republicans have 18, up one from last month. The Republicans will have a net gain of 4 seats, one less than last month. This leaves the House having 232 Democrats, 203 Republicans.

Presidency

Two state changes in the Biden vs. Trump presidential Race. Popular vote, close to the same as last month. Biden has risen by one/tenth of a single point; Trump added a half of one point. This month’s total is Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.9%. The two changes, North Carolina from going to Biden is now going to Trump. New Hampshire flipped from Trump to Biden. The final electoral college tally for this month is Biden 319, Trump 219. It seems that the coronavirus pandemic is having little effect on this race. At least in the national and each state’s polls. But if it continues causing changes in voting methods and perhaps a delay of the election, a what if that is impossible to factor in at this time.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
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Comments

  1. Trippy Trekker's Avatar
    Once again, thank you for this latest monthly update!
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    You're most welcome, this is a labor of love.

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