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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 March 2020

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 March 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.

Safe Republican seats 13: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The Republicans have 10 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – McSally has 3 Republican challengers for her seat. None have a chance of unseating her. On the Democratic side, former Astronaut Mark Kelly will be McSally’s opponent in November. He’ll win, perhaps easier than anyone thinks. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville are battling each other to the right to challenge Jones in November. It’s a coin flip as to which one will. The rest of the primary field doesn’t have a chance. Jones ceded any chance of reelection when he voted Guilty in Trump’s senate trial. Trump has a 61% approval rating in Alabama. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – Former Governor John Hickenlooper will easily defeat 6 other Democratic challengers to take on and waltz to a win over Republican Cory Gardner. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – 8 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. The best know is Jon Ossoff who most likely will face off against Perdue in November. Perdue pulls this one out, although it will be a close one. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. She has two Republican challengers, one of which is Representative Doug Collins who will defeat Loeffler in the GOP primary to be held later this month. 3 Democrats are vying for the nomination. The favorite is Matt Lieberman, businessman and son of former U.S. Senator from Connecticut Joe Lieberman. Another close race with another Republican victory. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – 4 Democrats are in the race for the democratic nomination to challenge Ernst. Ernst will win. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. 3 Democrats and 6 Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination for this open seat. On the GOP side Kris Kobach or Roger Marshall will be the winner. It doesn’t matter who either one faces in November, the Republican will be an easy winner. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kentucky McConnell R – 4 Republicans are challenging McConnell for the GOP nomination. 9 Democrats are vying for the right to challenge McConnell in November. Democrat McGrath is tied with McConnell in the latest head to head poll. This will be one of the most interesting senate races. McConnell always finds a way to win though. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Maine Collins R – 5 democrats have declared to challenge Collins. Collins is unopposed in her primary. Maine has gone to ranked voting system. Green candidate Lisa Savage has declared along with three independents to join the democrat in challenging Colling. The Democrat will probably be Susan Gideon. Being it looks like neither Collins nor Gideon will receive the required 50% plus on in the first round, those who vote Green and for the independent candidate’s second choice will determine the winner. Not necessarily the candidate who received the most votes, at least in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised if Collins receives the most vote in Round one, but fall short of the 50% plus one, but in round two, second choices, Gideon wins. Democratic pick up 51 R 49 D

Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. Peters shouldn’t have any problem with either one of them. I had planned on placing Michigan into the Safe Democratic column this month. But John James has pulled within 6 points of Peters. I decided to let Michigan on my watch list. At least for another month. Democratic hold 51 R 49 D

North Carolina Tillis R – 3 Republicans have entered the fray to challenge Tillis. None have a chance. 5 Democrats have declared their challenge to Tillis. Cal Cunningham is the favorite. This race could go either way, until things clear up a bit, I’m sticking with the incumbent in a race that probably will be decided by a percentage point or two. Republican hold 51 R, 49 D.

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 6 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 4 Democrats. Tennessee will stay Republican regardless of who the candidates are. As soon as I know who vs. who, I’ll drop Tennessee off my watch list into the safe Republican column. Republican hold. R 51 D 49

The changes from last month is I switched Maine from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. As for the votes in the impeachment trial, Jones, Alabama guilty vote doomed any chance of him being reelected. Republican Collins, Maine, her not guilty vote most likely will contribute to her defeat. As far as the senate goes, this means the impeachment trial was a wash. The Democrats will pick up Arizona, Colorado and Maine while losing Alabama for a net gain of two. Leaving the senate in Republican hands 51-49. Now who the Democrats nominate to face Trump could have a major impact on at least 3 of these senate races, swinging them from one party to the other. They are the two Georgia races along with North Carolina. Now that remains to be played out and decided at some future date. The nomination effect is a total unknown at this time.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. Forget that. The Democrats have 29 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, a drop of one from last month to the Republicans 17, no change. The Republicans will have a net gain of 6 seats leaving the House having 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans. This is also no change from last month. The Democrats win MI-3, Amish’s seat who is the only independent in the House.

Presidency

I’m sticking with using the Democratic generic presidential candidate vs Trump until after Super Tuesday. Although I thought about making it Sanders vs. Trump, but too early for that. Popular vote, Generic Democratic candidate 49.7% Trump 46.3%. Electoral College, I’m down to just one state I deem too close to call, Florida. The other 49 I have made predictions. The big changes this month is Wisconsin from Mr. Generic Democrat to Mr. Trump, North Carolina from tossup to Democratic and New Hampshire from Democratic to Trump. These changes make it Mr. Generic Democrat 280, Trump 229 with Florida’s 29 electoral votes in the undecided column. Since Mr. Generic Democrat has achieved the 270 needed to win, I’m, following through giving the toss up state/s to the candidate that has already achieved 270 as I have done in my last two forecasts. Final electoral college tally for this month, Mr. Generic Democrat 309, Trump 229. Keep in mind once the Democrats determine who their nominee will be could and most likely will change the dynamics from what Mr. Generic Democrat has shown.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
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Comments

  1. Linc's Avatar
    Only 11 governors this term, with DEMs trying to hold MT-toss-up and NC-lean D. DE and WA are safe for D’s. R’s are likely with VT-Scott and NH-Sununu. Safe are IN, MO, ND, UT and WV.

    I like to look at overlaps and upward and downward coattails. Between governors and senators, that would be NH, MT, and the especially crucial NC, where the RNC has its convention in Charlotte Aug. 24-27. DNC has its convention July 13-16 in Milwaukee.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Linc
    Only 11 governors this term, with DEMs trying to hold MT-toss-up and NC-lean D. DE and WA are safe for D’s. R’s are likely with VT-Scott and NH-Sununu. Safe are IN, MO, ND, UT and WV.

    I like to look at overlaps and upward and downward coattails. Between governors and senators, that would be NH, MT, and the especially crucial NC, where the RNC has its convention in Charlotte Aug. 24-27. DNC has its convention July 13-16 in Milwaukee.
    North Carolina seems tight in all races for 2020. Flip a coin.
  3. pilot16's Avatar
    Surprised to see you changed NH for the general. Never know what to think here. Signs all over for Trump. I think Mayor Pete would have won easily here against Trump but if its Sanders or Biden I dont know. Sanders will lose the moderates and libertarians and Biden could lose the youth here as we have the highest student loan debt in the US. I would guess its a coin flip too. Also wanted to add that some are claiming Shaheen could be in trouble in the senate if Bolduc wins the primary. He is a Brigadier General and very popular. One of Shaheens biggest assets here was her popularity with veterans. If Bolduc becomes the nominee, she might have a fight on her hands.
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Surprised to see you changed NH for the general. Never know what to think here. Signs all over for Trump. I think Mayor Pete would have won easily here against Trump but if its Sanders or Biden I dont know. Sanders will lose the moderates and libertarians and Biden could lose the youth here as we have the highest student loan debt in the US. I would guess its a coin flip too. Also wanted to add that some are claiming Shaheen could be in trouble in the senate if Bolduc wins the primary. He is a Brigadier General and very popular. One of Shaheens biggest assets here was her popularity with veterans. If Bolduc becomes the nominee, she might have a fight on her hands.
    I appreciate the info. The main reason I switched NH to Trump was UNH, AtlasIntel and McLaughlin & Associates polls showed Trump taking the lead over all Democratic candidates. Not by much, between 2-6 points depending on the candidate. All Feb polls. In Jan all the Democratic candidates had the lead. I don't know what caused the changed, but a change did occur. It could easily revert back to the democrats next month. But we'll see on that.

    The senate races are still sorting themselves out. With the data available Shaheen looks pretty safe at this time. UNH Feb polls shows Shaheen over Bolduc by a 49-30 margin. a 10 point or more difference or gap places NH in the safe category. It may or may not tighten. Most of the figures I use up to now, there really hasn't been any campaigning or direct challenges from one candidate to the other. Even so, the numbers usually don't change much unless there is a big mistake or an unforeseen event or happening takes place.

    But I'll keep an eye on the NH senate race, you can be sure of that.

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