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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 February 2020

PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 February 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.

Safe Republican seats 13: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia Wyoming.

The Republicans have 10 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – McSally has 3 Republican challengers for her seat. None have a chance of unseating her. On the Democratic side, former Astronaut Mark Kelly has one primary opponent. Kelly is a safe bet for the democratic nomination. Kelly wins in November. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – There are 7 Republicans who have jumped in the race to challenge Democrat Jones. The top two are Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions. Sessions will win the GOP primary and defeat Jones in November. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – 7 Democrats have jumped into the race to challenge Gardner. The overwhelming favorite is former Governor John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper easily in November. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – 8 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. The best know is Jon Ossoff who most likely will face off against Perdue in November. Perdue pulls this one out, although it will be a close one. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. She has two Republican challengers. 3 Democrats are vying for the nomination to challenge Loeffler. The favorite is Matt Lieberman, businessman and son of former U.S. Senator from Connecticut Joe Lieberman. Another close race with another Republican victory. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – 4 Democrats are in the race for the democratic nomination to challenge Ernst. She should keep her seat rather easily. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. 3 Democrats and 6 Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination for this open seat. As red as Kansas is, whoever is the GOP nominee will win. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kentucky McConnell R – 4 Republicans are challenging McConnell for the GOP nomination. 9 Democrats are vying for the right to challenge McConnell in November. McConnell is very vulnerable whether it be from another Republican in the primary or one of the democrats in November. Even so, McConnell always finds a way to win. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Maine Collins R – 5 democrats have declared to challenge Collins. Collins is unopposed in her primary. Maine has gone to ranked voting system, I’m not sure how this will affect the 2020 senate race. Being unsure of that along without knowing who the Democratic challenger will be along with independents and third-party candidates, I’m sticking with the incumbent until I get a better reading on Maine. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. Peters shouldn’t have any problem with either one of them. Unless this race tightens up, I’ll drop Michigan off my watch list next month. Democratic hold 52 R 48 D

North Carolina Tillis R – 3 Republicans have entered the fray to challenge Tillis. None have a chance. 5 Democrats have declared their challenge to Tillis. Tillis is popular in North Carolina. Tillis's job approval is 20 points above those who disapprove of him. Because of that I will go with the incumbent to win in a close one. Republican hold 52 R, 48 D.

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 4 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 3 Democrats. Tennessee will stay Republican regardless of who the candidates are. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

The changes from last month is I dropped Mississippi off my watch list into the safe Republican column. Then switched North Carolina from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. I still have no idea how the impeachment trial and vote on Trump’s removal will affect a few of these races. The Democrats will pick up Arizona and Colorado while losing Alabama for a net gain of one. Keep in mind, who the Democrats nominate to face Trump could have a major impact on at least 4 of these senate races.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. That’s a pipe dream. The Democrats have 30 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties to the Republicans 17. That’s a drop of 5 from last month for the Democrats and 1 for the Republicans. The Republicans will have a net gain of 6 seats leaving the House having 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans. The Democrats win MI-3, Amish’s seat who is the only independent in the House.

Presidency

I’m still using the Democratic generic presidential candidate vs Trump for this month’s presidential forecast. Popular vote, Generic Democratic candidate 49.5% Trump 46.4%. Electoral College, 47 states are predictable this month. Meaning in those 47 states one or the other candidate’s lead is outside the margin of error in the polls. In those states it is Generic Democrat 278, Trump 204. Three states are in the tossup column with 55 electoral votes. They are Arizona, Florida, North Carolina. Trump has a slight lead in Arizona, the generic Democrat in Florida and North Carolina. 270 electoral votes needed to win which Mr. Generic Democratic has surpassed without winning any of the tossup states. Based on the very slight leads in the three tossup states, I’m giving Arizona to Trump, Florida and North Carolina to Mr. Generic Democrat. The final tally is Mr. Generic Democrat 323, Trump 215. No change in the electoral college from last month. Keep in mind once the Democrats determine who their nominee will be could and most likely will change the dynamics from what Mr. Generic Democrat has shown.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
 
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Thank you very much again, for the analysis.

So, 5 Dem House seats turned safe, leaving a Dem loss of -5 or 6. That sounds about right on the surface, though I'm thinking the general motivation of the Dems this year will be strong. So I agree they would lose no more than 5 or 6, but it could be less.

Senate ends-up Republicans losing 1. Yeah, sounds about right. Though Collins may have a tougher time then we think, so it could be Republicans losing 2. Regardless of who loses specifically, I'm looking for the Dems to flip 1 or 2, but not the body.

I like your Electoral College numbers, but cannot do a hard analysis like yours. I do not believe Trump will prevail in 1, 2, or 3 of the razor thin wins he had in 2016 like MI. But while I see Dem motivation, I have a very hard time to take the election away from an incumbent during peacetime with a good economy. So I won't call it except to say I think it will be close.
 
Chomsky;bt5003 said:
Thank you very much again, for the analysis.

So, 5 Dem House seats turned safe, leaving a Dem loss of -5 or 6. That sounds about right on the surface, though I'm thinking the general motivation of the Dems this year will be strong. So I agree they would lose no more than 5 or 6, but it could be less.

Senate ends-up Republicans losing 1. Yeah, sounds about right. Though Collins may have a tougher time then we think, so it could be Republicans losing 2. Regardless of who loses specifically, I'm looking for the Dems to flip 1 or 2, but not the body.

I like your Electoral College numbers, but cannot do a hard analysis like yours. I do not believe Trump will prevail in 1, 2, or 3 of the razor thin wins he had in 2016 like MI. But while I see Dem motivation, I have a very hard time to take the election away from an incumbent during peacetime with a good economy. So I won't call it except to say I think it will be close.
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Motivation was on the side of the Democrats. Where it has been since Trump won. Impeachment may have even up motivation factor though. We won't know for sure until a few weeks after the trial. I think Speaker Pelosi knew of the change in GOP enthusiasm for Trump could change if she went through with impeachment. That in my opinion is why she tried to avoid it as long as she could. So we'll wait and see.

I agree with you on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I don't see Trump winning those three states for a second time. Hillary took them for granted and didn't campaign much in any of them. Hillary never visited Wisconsin. I don't think whoever is the Democratic nominee will make that same mistake. Which means Trump will have to find a different route, different states.

The senate is very much in flux. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Democrats pick up any where between 1-5 seats. The house, being the Democrats now have to defend 235 seats instead of the 190 they had in 2018, that makes a huge difference. Also there are those 31 seats out of the 40 the Democrats picked up in 2018 that Trump won those districts in 2016. Voting for the articles of impeachment put a lot of those 31 seats at risk. The question is has those voters in those 31 districts soured on Trump or are they out for revenge for the impeachment vote? Time will tell, it's to early to say for sure one way or the other.

With the drop of 5 seats from the at risk column, they may indeed have soured on Trump. At least some. We'll see as time goes by, so stay tuned.
 
Thank you for your thorough and comprehensive monthly forecasts! I look forward to reviewing each new one!

Time and again in other threads you reference the importance of the Independent voting block. Your comments about Independents and your disdain for our current two major party system have increased my curiosity about the potential of tapping into this lurking source of power. Viva the Independents! So I believe he or she who can galvanize the largest share of Independents has the best chance of shaping the future political landscape.

Current party strength
Gallup
As of December 2019, Gallup polling found that 28% of Americans identified as Democrat, 28% identified as Republican, and 41% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 43% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 45% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

In 2018, the number of competitive states dropped down to 10, the lowest number since 2008. From 2017 to 2018, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to lean Democratic, while West Virginia, Louisiana, and Indiana moved from competitive to lean Republican, and Nebraska moved from lean Republican to competitive.[4]

As of 2018, Massachusetts was the most Democratic state, with 56% of residents identifying as Democrat, while only 27% of residents identified as Republican. Wyoming was the most Republican state, with 59% of residents identifying as Republican, and only 25% of residents identifying as Democrat.
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Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia
 
Trippy Trekker;bt5006 said:
Thank you for your thorough and comprehensive monthly forecasts! I look forward to reviewing each new one!

Time and again in other threads you reference the importance of the Independent voting block. Your comments about Independents and your disdain for our current two major party system have increased my curiosity about the potential of tapping into this lurking source of power. Viva the Independents! So I believe he or she who can galvanize the largest share of Independents has the best chance of shaping the future political landscape.



Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia
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I think you got it. Gallup is an invaluable source when it comes to party affiliation as is Pew Research. Right now I'm looking at what I would classify as swings states down to 3. That number could change, it's dynamic, but the rest look at least 60% or better to go to one or the other major party candidate. The three, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina as of today. A change from my 1 Feb forecast which shows the dynamics. I dropped Arizona out of the swing state and added Wisconsin. They probably will be more changes when my 1 Mar forecast is due.
 
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