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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 January 2020

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 January 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.

Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia Wyoming.

The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – 3 Republicans have emerged to challenge McSally in the GOP primary. None have a chance of ousting McSally. Former Astronaut Mark Kelly has one primary opponent on the Democratic side. Kelly looks like a safe bet for the nomination. Kelly will win. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – Jones has no challengers for his seat on the democratic side. The best known among 7 Republicans who have announced to challenge Jones is Jeff Sessions. Sessions is miles ahead of the other 6, November will pit Sessions against Jones. Sessions will regain his old seat. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – So far 8 Democrats have declared their candidacy to challenge Gardner. The best know is former Governor John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper looks like a lock for the Democratic nomination and close to a safe bet in November against Gardner. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – Perdue won’t be challenged in the GOP primary. 8 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. The best know is Jon Ossoff. This will be a surprisingly close race with Perdue pulling it out. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Surprisingly only one candidate has declared on the Democratic side to challenge Loeffler. That is Matt Lieberman, businessman and son of former U.S. Senator from Connecticut Joe Lieberman. Another very close one, with Loeffler hanging on. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – There are 4 declared Democrats preparing to challenge Ernst. None are big names. Ernst will keep her seat. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. There are 3 declared Democrats and 7 declared Republicans so far vying for this open seat. As red as Kansas is, whoever is the GOP nominee will win. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kentucky McConnell R – I find it interesting that 4 Republicans have entered the fray to challenge McConnell for his seat. This might be telling us that McConnell is very vulnerable. 7 democrats have declared to challenge McConnell. McConnell is in trouble. He should hang on by the slimmest of margins. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Maine Collins R – 5 democrats have declared so far to challenge Collins, 4 more may do so. Maine has gone to ranked voting system, I’m not sure how this will affect the 2020 senate race. Not knowing that or who will be the Democratic challenger along with independents and third party candidates, I’m sticking with the incumbent until I get a better grasp on Maine. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. Both look like a long shot. Democratic hold 52 R 48 D

Mississippi Hyde-Smith R – This one looks like a rematch from 2018, Hyde-Smith vs. Mike Espy. Hyde-Smith wins easily. I’m thinking about dropping this one off my watch list and placing it into the safe Republican column. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

North Carolina Tillis R – 3 Republicans have entered the fray to challenge Tillis. None have a chance. 5 Democrats have declared their challenge to Tillis. Tillis will lose in a close race to either Cal Cunningham or Erica Smith. Democratic gain 51R 49 D

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 4 Republicans have already declared their intentions to seek Alexander’s seat, 3 more will probably join them. 4 Democrats have announced, with 5 more waiting in the wings. Regardless of who the candidates are, Tennessee stays Republican. Republican hold. R 51 D 49

No changes from last month, although a clearer picture is coming into view. The GOP will retain control of the senate, barely. Until impeachment is finished, no one knows how that will affect these senate races. Bottom line for this month, the Democrats will have a net gain of 2 when they need at least 3 if not 4 depending on who wins the White House to regain control of the senate.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent . The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats have 35 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties to the Republicans 18. 2 new seats have been added to the Democratic competitive/at risk column this month while the GOP number stayed the same. The Republicans will have a net gain of 8 seats leaving the House having 228 Democrats, 207 Republicans. The Democrats win MI-3, Amish’s seat who is now the only independent in the House.

Presidency

I’m still using the Democratic generic presidential candidate vs Trump for this month’s presidential forecast. Doing so may throw off the actual percentages by a couple of points one way or the other. Popular vote, Generic Democratic candidate 50.1% Trump 47.1%. Electoral College, there are 44 states predictable. In those states it is Generic Democrat 233, Trump 204. Six states are in the tossup column with 101 electoral votes. They are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump has gained a slight advantage in Arizona switching that state from generic Democrat to Trump. I don’t see Trump winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan twice in a row by such slender margins as he did in 2016. They’re staying in Mr. Generic Democrat’s column. This makes the count Generic Democrat 279, Trump 215 with Florida and North Carolina left. 270 electoral votes needed to win which Mr. Generic Democratic has surpassed without the last two tossup states. Last month I gave them to the generic Democratic candidate, I see no reason to change them this month. The final tally is Mr. Generic Democrat 323, Trump 215. The change in states from last month to this one is Arizona went from Generic Democrat to Trump.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
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Comments

  1. imagep's Avatar
    Thank you!

    Once the democratic nominee is firmed up, do you think that will improve or harm dems chances of winning any states (specific candidate vs Trump)? I wonder if there is any historic data on this.

    I suspect that once the dem nominee is decided, that a lot of people who are anti-this-or-that other democratic nominee would get in line with the party, but maybe in the polled peoples mind, the generic candidate IS their candidate, so maybe that's already factored in.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by imagep
    Thank you!

    Once the democratic nominee is firmed up, do you think that will improve or harm dems chances of winning any states (specific candidate vs Trump)? I wonder if there is any historic data on this.

    I suspect that once the dem nominee is decided, that a lot of people who are anti-this-or-that other democratic nominee would get in line with the party, but maybe in the polled peoples mind, the generic candidate IS their candidate, so maybe that's already factored in.
    Exactly, quite a few always view the generic candidate as the candidate they like, not one that they are against. The possibility that the percentages to include a couple of states now favoring the Democrats, could once the nominee is selected become a lot closer to even going into the Trump column.

    How the Democratic Party unites around their candidate becomes very important as there is a couple of states out there where one Democratic candidate leads Trump by seven points, where Trump leads another Democratic candidate in those same couple of states by 2 points. You did have a good number of Sanders voters refuse to support Hillary in 2016. Hard feelings are always a possibility.
  3. Chomsky's Avatar
    Damn - just found this.

    This is a nice piece of work, Perotista. I can't think of a better member for the job. Thank you very much for this.

    I'm going to see if I can figure-out how to subscribe or follow your future releases somehow.

    I may come back later to make some specific comments, if you don't mind?
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky
    Damn - just found this.

    This is a nice piece of work, Perotista. I can't think of a better member for the job. Thank you very much for this.

    I'm going to see if I can figure-out how to subscribe or follow your future releases somehow.

    I may come back later to make some specific comments, if you don't mind?
    I'll be posting these on the first of every month up to and including 1 Nov. At least the first of every month is my target date. I've started on my 1 Feb forecast, that one will be ready on the first. Looking back at the one's I did for 2018, 2016 and on back, the history portion is what I find the most interesting. Seeing how things change from month to month leading up to the election regardless of the election cycle.

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