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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 December 2019

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 December 2019

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.

Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia Wyoming.

The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – McSally’s opponent is unknown. It could be former Astronaut Mark Kelly. If so, I would go with Kelly. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – There are 9 Republicans so far who have entered the GOP primary to challenge Jones. Jeff Sessions is the front runner. Sessions will regain his old seat. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – So far 8 Democrats have declared their candidacy to challenge Gardner. The best know is former Governor John Hickenlooper. If it is Hickenlooper, he’ll win in a landslide. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – 8 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. Perdue has the advantage being the incumbent. That is the sole reason I’m keeping this seat as a Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Isakson is leaving the senate at the end of the year. Governor Kemp will appoint his replacement sometime in January. Until that happens along with knowing who the Democrats will nominate, I’m leaving this seat as a Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – There are 4 declared Democrats preparing to challenge Ernst. None are big names. Ernst should keep her seat. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. There are 3 declared Democrats and 6 declared Republicans so far vying for this open seat. As red as Kansas is, the Republicans should hold this seat. R 52 D 48

Kentucky McConnell R – 6 democrats have declared to challenge McConnell. Whichever one wins the Democratic primary will give McConnell a run for his life. Abet, falling short. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Maine Collins R – 5 democrats have declared so far to challenge Collins, 4 more will probably do so. There have been no Republican challenges to Collins. She can prepare for the general while the Democrats are fighting it out among themselves. This race looks very, very close. Collins being the incumbent, I’m sticking with her. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. Both look like a long shot. Democratic hold 52 R 48 D

Mississippi Hyde-Smith R – This one looks like a rematch from 2018, Hyde-Smith vs. Mike Espy. Hyde-Smith wins. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

North Carolina Tillis R – Tillis is being challenged by Sandy Smith and Garland Tucker. No shot at beating Tillis. 5 Democrats have declared their challenge to Tillis. Tillis will lose in a close race to either Cal Cunningham or Erica Smith in a close one. Democratic gain 51R 49 D

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 4 Republicans have already declared their intentions to seek Alexander’s seat, 3 more will probably join them. 3 Democrats have announced, with 5 more waiting in the wings. Until things get a bit less confusing in Tennessee, I’m keeping this as a Republican hold. R 51 D 49

This is my first forecast. As time goes by, I expect to drop Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi and Tennessee from my watch list as they become non-competitive. I have them here now because strange things have been happening. No one knows how Trump’s impeachment will affect these senate races. All I can say is stay tuned for my monthly updates on these senate races. Bottom line for this month, the Democrats will have a net gain of 2 when they need at least 3 if not 4 depending on who wins the White House.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent seats. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats have 33 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties to the Republicans 18. The Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, the Democrats win MI-3, the independent seat with result of the new House having 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans.

Presidency

Until we know who the nominee will be, I’ll use the Democratic generic presidential candidate to do my figuring. Doing so may throw off the actual percentages by a couple of points one way or the other. Popular vote, Generic Democratic candidate 50.4% Trump 47.4%. Electoral College, there are 46 states that I feel confident in predicting, in those states it is Generic Democrat 259, Trump 204. Four states in my book are pure tossups with 75 electoral votes. Pennsylvania is one of them, I don’t think Trump can win Pennsylvania for a second time. Place Pennsylvania to the generic Democratic which gives him 279, enough to win without the other three. They are Arizona, Florida, North Carolina. In all three Trump’s approval rating is below water. For this month I’ll give all three to the generic Democrat. Making the final count generic Democrat 334, Trump 204. Keep in mind once the Democrats nominate a candidate, things can change drastically, which I’m sure they will. We also don’t know how impeachment will affect these numbers. But as of 1 December 2019, you have my first forecast.

History

2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204
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Comments

  1. pilot16's Avatar
    Love the blog! Cant add much except some are wondering how the new voting law in NH might affect 2020 and the candidates. Also some are expecting a closer than usual senate race here. Shaheen is still the heavy favorite but could be facing either a Brigadier General who is popular or Corey Lewandowski. Is going to be a hoot!
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Love the blog! Cant add much except some are wondering how the new voting law in NH might affect 2020 and the candidates. Also some are expecting a closer than usual senate race here. Shaheen is still the heavy favorite but could be facing either a Brigadier General who is popular or Corey Lewandowski. Is going to be a hoot!
    You hit on the one thing that makes making early predictions more or less an educated guess. Shaheen, without knowing who she'll face looks like a shoe in. Very solid or safe.

    As for NH new election or voting law, I haven't heard a thing about it. Feel free to fill me in. All I can say is to expect a lot of changes as time goes by. I like to do these forecasts a month at a time. I can adjust them to fit the circumstances and situations as they change from month to month.
  3. pilot16's Avatar
    NH has a new voter law which could make voting not possible for 6000 out of state college students. Keep in mind the 2016 presidential and senate races were closer than that. Could play havoc in 2020.

    Federal judge denies request to block voter residency law for New Hampshire presidential primary
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    NH has a new voter law which could make voting not possible for 6000 out of state college students. Keep in mind the 2016 presidential and senate races were closer than that. Could play havoc in 2020.

    Federal judge denies request to block voter residency law for New Hampshire presidential primary
    Several years ago, Georgia passed a law close to, but not exact. Basically, an out of state student living in a dorm on a college campus can't claim that as his official bode of residence. Which come election time, enough were so doing to make it a problem.

    Allowing that made it possible for a student to vote twice. Once by absentee from his home town in whatever state and once more in Georgia by claiming his dorm as his official residence.

    I suppose it could be for 8 or 9 months out of the year. Then the student goes home for the summer, comes back the next year, then gets a new room in a different dorm.

    I was ambivalent to it all. Georgia also has a law that states any out of state resident moving to Georgia must obtain a Georgia drivers licence. So there was an exemption to the dorm law if the student had a Georgia drivers licence.

    that made sense to me.
  5. ChezC3's Avatar
    One of the few people I can disagree with and still appreciate your insight. House and Presidency is wrong in my ever humble opinion. As far as the latter is concerned I'm not entirely convinced that there will not be some shenanigans which change that.

    But good analysis as usual
  6. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by ChezC3
    One of the few people I can disagree with and still appreciate your insight. House and Presidency is wrong in my ever humble opinion. As far as the latter is concerned I'm not entirely convinced that there will not be some shenanigans which change that.

    But good analysis as usual
    There are always shenanigans as you put. Most of the time behind the scenes. I do think we, the U.S. has as fair elections as both political parties allow them to be fair. Each is always look for a political advantage, each will use it if they think they can get away with it.

    As for the House, most base their predictions on the generic congressional vote which at this time the Democrats hold a 47-41 advantage. That would translate into an approximate 30 seat pick up. I don't use that, I use the number of competitive seats instead. Besides the generic congressional poll is national and the House is decided district by district. One big difference between 2018 and 2020 is the Republicans had to defend 240 seats in 18, but 199 this time. The Democrats had 195 to defend in 18, 235 this time. That does make a difference.

    2018 was very unusual, a year in which the GOP had 40 retirements, open seats and 62 competitive or at risk seats. The democrats did have 18 retirements, open seats, but only 8 competitive or at risk seats. I don't see that this time around. The Democrats have more competitive seats, at risk seats up than does the GOP. At least as of now.

    The presidency, using the generic democrat isn't ideal. There are factors that the generic doesn't let you factor in. But it is a safer bet than choosing Biden, Warren or Sanders not know which one it will be. FYI, the Generic Presidential vote shows Democratic candidate 49% Trump 41%. Question 51

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...nTabReport.pdf

    I do have my own formula for the popular vote along with picking states for one or the other major party candidate. The one thing no prognosticator or pundit, forecaster can ever be sure of is voter turnout. That is an educated guess or as some would call it, a SWAG. Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
  7. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Thanks for all of your efforts Pero! I will watch for your updates with interest.
  8. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    Thanks for all of your efforts Pero! I will watch for your updates with interest.
    Thank You much. Knowing folks takes an interest makes it all worth while. Take care my friend.
  9. imagep's Avatar
    I've actually been looking forward to your analysis for the past two years.

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