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Autopsy of PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST 9 November 2018

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Autopsy of PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST 9 November 2018

There were 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the previous Senate. I forecasted the final results as the new senate having 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. Official results show 52 GOP to 47 democratic senators with Mississippi Special going to a runoff. Republican Hyde-Smith will easily win the Mississippi runoff. Making it 53 Republicans. I missed by one.

The house, there were 240 Republicans, 195 Democrats. I forecasted the new house would have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. With 13 seats remaining to be called, the current count is Democrats 225, Republicans 197, 13 pending. I need the Democrats to win 8 of the remaining 13 too close to call to hit my 233 on the nose. Whether it breaks that way or not, I am guaranteed to be within a seat or two correctly forecasting the house.

Which senate states did I get wrong, Nevada, Indiana, Florida. The other 32 senate races were correct. Here’s what I said in these three missed senate races.


Florida Nelson D – Nelson has maintained around a three-point lead for the month of October. This is the upper limits of the margin of error, but still within it. With the advantage of incumbency, Nelson holds onto his seat. Democratic hold R 50 D 50. (With Republican winner Scott being an incumbent Governor, that incumbent advantage wasn’t there. Scott won by 0.2%, two tenths of a single percentage point. Such is life, a loss is a loss is a loss.)


Indiana – Donnelly D – Donnelly’s nay vote on Kavanaugh has vaulted Republican Mike Braun into a slight lead in the last three polls. But these polls haven’t taken Libertarian Candidate Lucy Brenton into consideration. She is polling around 5% of the vote when included. The Libertarian could very well cost Braun the seat. This is a pure coin flip race. Probably decided by one percent or less. Based solely on the advantage of incumbency and thinking the lasting effect of Donnelly nay vote on Kavanaugh doesn’t have legs, I’m going with Donnelly to keep his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50 (I gave the Libertarian Candidate too much credit, she gained 3% instead of 5% along with not reading the Kavanaugh effect which had legs and sparked outrage among Republicans and Republican leaning independents for Donnelly’s nay vote. Donnelly won six years ago with the help of Republican leaning independents. Donnelly was benefited six years ago with the GOP running the wacko Mourdock. Not this time.)

Nevada Heller R – Incumbent Heller has continued his momentum gaining a slight lead over Jacky Rosen which they were tied a month ago. Stick with the candidate that has the momentum. Republican Hold. R 51 D 49 (The reason is simple, Las Vegas and its surroundings dwarfed the rest of the state. I gave Heller too much credit from coming eight points down to a lead of two over the last two months. Nevada is turning blue and is a light blue state today.)

Here is what I said about the house and the history of Perotista’s senate and house forecasts for this year.
House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 62 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 8 for the Democrats, up two from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is the same projected increase as last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 178 seats for the Republicans, 187 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. On the Republican side, holding their losses to 30 seats is the minimum losses that are possible. Regardless, the Democrats will regain control of the house, it is now just a question of by how many seats.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
November Senate 52 R 48 D, House 202 R 233 D

Final Results senate Republicans 53 Democrats 47 House 225 Democrats, 197 Republican with 13 remaining to be called.
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Comments

  1. <alt>doxygen's Avatar
    The Scott/Nelson race is still being disputed. The last actual count I saw had Scott's lead down to about 15,000, and I think that has dropped.

    Florida is a very, very purple state. It may be the most evenly divided in the country.

    Note : In my opinion, neither Scott nor Nelson should be a US Senator. Haven't been here long enough to have an alternative to propose, but those guys are both bad - Nelson being the slightly lesser evil.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by <alt>doxygen
    The Scott/Nelson race is still being disputed. The last actual count I saw had Scott's lead down to about 15,000, and I think that has dropped.

    Florida is a very, very purple state. It may be the most evenly divided in the country.

    Note : In my opinion, neither Scott nor Nelson should be a US Senator. Haven't been here long enough to have an alternative to propose, but those guys are both bad - Nelson being the slightly lesser evil.
    The lesser of two evils, the least worst candidate, voting for the candidate you least want to lose. How those phrases have become more and more true when it comes to the two major party candidates.

    If one isn't a very loyal, partisan member of the two major parties, one doesn't vote for anyone anymore, just against one or the other or as I have done more recently, against both major party candidates.

    Florida isn't unique, here in Georgia we just had an governor's election between a very right extremist and a very left extremist. Can't either party nominate a common sense candidate or one that would represent most of America, not just the extreme right or left?
  3. <alt>doxygen's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista
    The lesser of two evils, the least worst candidate, voting for the candidate you least want to lose. How those phrases have become more and more true when it comes to the two major party candidates.

    If one isn't a very loyal, partisan member of the two major parties, one doesn't vote for anyone anymore, just against one or the other or as I have done more recently, against both major party candidates.

    Florida isn't unique, here in Georgia we just had an governor's election between a very right extremist and a very left extremist. Can't either party nominate a common sense candidate or one that would represent most of America, not just the extreme right or left?
    That certainly describes the governors race in both states. Side note : the joke here is that we in N. FL are really just South Georgia. That isn't really true where I am (too many transplants) but out in the sticks...

    Seems the parties both try to put up the more corporatist candidate, while the base opts for the farthest out in left or right field. Hillary was a corporate candidate, while Trump was pure base. This really sucks.
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by <alt>doxygen
    That certainly describes the governors race in both states. Side note : the joke here is that we in N. FL are really just South Georgia. That isn't really true where I am (too many transplants) but out in the sticks...

    Seems the parties both try to put up the more corporatist candidate, while the base opts for the farthest out in left or right field. Hillary was a corporate candidate, while Trump was pure base. This really sucks.
    You hit the nail on the head. Both major parties owe their hearts and souls to corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interests, mega money donors etc. That's where they get their tens of millions of dollars for their campaigns and the like.

    I totally agree, both parties are divided between the corporate establishment and the base which loves far out wackos.

    North Florida, the Panhandle in geography and climate is more Georgia than Florida. More pines than swamps shall I say not counting the beaches and shores. Here we have a saying, there is Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs and then there is the rest, the real Georgia. We too have had a huge influx of transplants. Sometimes I think there are more transplants than native georgians. At least around and in the Atlanta area. We also have a huge military retiree community.

    That brings to mind another old saying, Georgia, a poor man's Florida.
  5. <alt>doxygen's Avatar
    Agreed.

    My dad's family is from Statesboro (spent a ton of time there as a kid), and I currently have family in Marietta and outside Athens. I'm on the east side of N. FL by the beaches, so it's not really panhandle-land. I can literally feel the Trump effect turning the outer-lands more red and the 'burbs more blue/purple. Weird times...

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