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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST October 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST October 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 17: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 2: Minnesota special (Smith), New Jersey.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 5: Mississippi (Wicker), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 0:

The Republicans have 4 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.

Arizona Flake R –Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has held a constant 3-8-point lead over McSally since the beginning of the year. But when Green Party candidate Angela Green is included in the polling, Sinema lead shrinks to two points. Well within the margin of error. Green polled 6% of the vote in the three September polls she was included in. She won’t do that in November. Sinema wins. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – For the first time, Nelson has led Scott in the last three polls taken. For the last two months, it has been Scott led in one, Nelson the next, back to Scott and so on. Nelson could be on the verge of taking charge of this election. With incumbency on his side, Nelson has a distinct edge. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – This is a flip a coin race. I expected challenger Republican Mike Braun to begin pulling ahead of Donnelly for the last two months. That hasn’t happened. Where the Green Party candidate in Arizona gives McSally hope, the Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton might give Donnelly the victory. Brenton has polled between 3-8 points in the polls she has been included in. A real danger to Braun. Enough of a danger that I’m going with Donnelly this month to hang onto his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Missouri McCaskill D – This is another tight race where a third-party candidate could determine who wins, this time it is Libertarian Japheth Campbell. The polls are mixed, but in the money race McCaskill has a four to one advantage, 20 million to 5 million. I’m sticking with McCaskill. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

Montana Tester D – Tester has averaged only a two-point lead over Republican Matt Rosendale in the September polls. Well within the margin of error which means this race is basically tied. But incumbency and an 8-million-dollar advantage in the money race carries Tester to the win. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

Nevada Heller R – I had all but written Republican incumbent Dean Heller off in this race. Wrong thing to do. This race is a tie between him and Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen. Heller’s comeback was totally unexpected by me. Heller seems to have the momentum and has a slight advantage in the money race. I’m switching to the incumbent Heller to win this one. Republican Hold. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican challenger Kevin Cramer has a four-point advantage in the only September poll taken. Not much to go on. But as deep red as North Dakota is, I am sticking with Cramer to unseat the incumbent Heitkamp. Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Ohio Brown D – Brown easily over Republican challenger Jim Renacci. I will be removing Ohio from my watch list and placing it into the Democratic non-completive column for next month. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Tennessee Corker R – This is another coin flip race between Republican Representative Marsha Blackburn and ex-Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen. The polls have been back and forth. But Tennessee is deep red and that should be enough to carry Blackburn to victory, abet that victory will be razor thin. Republican Hold R 51 D 49

Texas Cruz R – This race between incumbent Cruz and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke is surprisingly close. Within the margin of error close. Even so, I don’t think O’Rourke can pull it off. Cruz has incumbency along with Texas being a red state on his side. Cruz in a close one. Republican hold R 51 D 49

West Virginia Manchin D – Manchin has increased his lead in the polls to double digits. The only thing that stops me from moving West Virginia to the Democratic non-competitive column next month is the SCOTUS Kavanaugh’s upcoming vote. A nay vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination could be enough to give Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey the victory in this deepest of red states. My educated guess is Manchin will vote yea to confirm and coast to an easy win in November. Democratic hold R 51 D 49

Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Wisconsin from non-competitive to safe Democratic. In two dramatic moves I changed Indiana from a Republican gain to a Democratic hold, then switched Nevada from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. Also remember Mississippi special (Hyde-Smith) will have a runoff to secure her seat after election day, but her seat is safe Republican. The Indiana and Nevada moves cancel each other out. There will be a vote on SCOTUS nominee Kavanaugh that could change the dynamics of five of these senate races. Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. All are represented by a democratic senator in a deep red state. A nay vote could be enough to change the dynamics into the GOP’s favor. If so I will address this in my last forecast, Novembers.

So much is in flux in these senate races, one could see the Democrats gain four seats if everything breaks their way to give them 53 or the Republicans could gain five seats to up their total to 56 if things go perfect for them. But maintaining the status quo of 51-49 Republican, seems the most likely outcome at this time. Still, with 26 Democratic seats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the GOP, maintaining the status quo is still a huge win for the Democrats in my book.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 58 seats at risk of switching parties, same as last month vs. 6 for the Democrats, down one from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is an increase of three seats from last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 182 seats for the Republicans, 189 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but possible. Unless something happens, a major event or happening to turn this election on its ear, the Republicans have less than a 10% chance of retaining the House.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
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Comments

  1. imagep's Avatar
    Wow, hard to believe that there is only one more of these forecasts before the election. I wouldn't think that much would change during that month, but who knows.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by imagep
    Wow, hard to believe that there is only one more of these forecasts before the election. I wouldn't think that much would change during that month, but who knows.
    It very well could. Especially with those five senate races currently held by Democrats in deep red states. A nay vote against confirmation on Kavanaugh might be enough to peeve off those Republican leaning independents who voted for them six years ago. An AYE vote could peeved off their smaller Democratic base.

    This cycle has been pretty consistent when it comes to the senate. 2016 senate races resulted in lots of changes month to month. Not his cycle. This Kavanaugh thing seems to have lit a fire under some Republicans that wasn't there before. The Democrats had a huge advantage in the enthusiasm gap. Not any more.

    Stay tuned, the Kavanaugh vote has the possibility of switching several races. I'm not saying it will, but that possibility exists. It's close enough to the election to have an effect, one way or the other.
  3. Hawkeye10's Avatar
    538 in the space of 5 days changed the R's chances of controlling the Senate from 68.1% to 77.7%, things are moving fast.
  4. <alt>doxygen's Avatar
    Thanks as always for your well done analysis. I tend to think your conclusions regarding how the House and Senate might wind up sorting out numerically make sense.

    Note from loony-land Florida : I went on vacation for 8 days and kind of did a "go off the grid" as far as political news goes. We got back last night, and I noticed that Nelson (or his surrogates) are finally attacking Scott, hard, over his former life as essentially a white collar criminal. I wonder if that stuff is having an effect on the race?

    I hate seeing big money from out of state flood into state races, but that's been the reality since even before Citizens United made it epidemic.
  5. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye10
    538 in the space of 5 days changed the R's chances of controlling the Senate from 68.1% to 77.7%, things are moving fast.
    In the five deep red states, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri and West Virginia the nay votes on Kavanaugh could be enough to to swing them the other way. All five incumbent Democrats relied on Republican leaning independents to win their seats six years ago. The possibility of those voters changing the way they vote this year is real with that nay vote. But let's wait a week to see if the polls back this up or not. But I've been talking about these seats ever since the Kavanaugh hearings began and of exactly the possibility of a nay vote changing the current dynamics of them.
  6. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by <alt>doxygen
    Thanks as always for your well done analysis. I tend to think your conclusions regarding how the House and Senate might wind up sorting out numerically make sense.

    Note from loony-land Florida : I went on vacation for 8 days and kind of did a "go off the grid" as far as political news goes. We got back last night, and I noticed that Nelson (or his surrogates) are finally attacking Scott, hard, over his former life as essentially a white collar criminal. I wonder if that stuff is having an effect on the race?

    I hate seeing big money from out of state flood into state races, but that's been the reality since even before Citizens United made it epidemic.
    Yeah, I've seen all sorts of money flood into my senate races, especially from California. And yes, that was happening long before Citizen United. Two years ago, nearly 80% of one's party senate candidate money came from out of state.

    If I had my way, there would be a law that simply states if you can't vote for a candidate, you can't donate to them.
  7. Linc's Avatar
    Thanx as always. Please feel free to do Two more updates

    say 11.05/06 just before Ballots and 10/23, aka ‘mole day’. 10 to the 23rd power. 6.02 x 1023 particles = one mole. (etc)

    So some Governor talk I mentiond to do. 9 states have Governor/Senator combos in opposite parties, with FL the obvious Titan. Then it’s OH, MI, WI, NM, ME, MD, MA and AK, with AK a true Indy.

    AK-Indy is behind the R with D-Begich also in it. In ME, they’ve gone to ranked-choice voting (RCV) for mayors, state-wide offices, and federal CDs. That could become more of a thing. ME is a toss-up for Governor, with LePage termed out.

    The other 9 states in the Northeast/East — 10 states have incumbent R’s favored in VT, NH, MA, and MD. R’s are close but behind in CT and RI. NJ flipped last year, NY is safe and DE is on a potus year.

    More later on the other groups of states, with plenty of media overlap within groups and between some groups. PA/NJ/VA from the Midwest/East/Southeast could tell the story early in the House, which I have 219 to 216 for the R’s right now, along with R’s up 53-47 in the Senate atm.

    Eastern results could affect turnout in AZ, NV, CA, OR, and WA, which have plenty of CDs at stake. 4 weeks
  8. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Linc
    Thanx as always. Please feel free to do Two more updates

    say 11.05/06 just before Ballots and 10/23, aka ‘mole day’. 10 to the 23rd power. 6.02 x 1023 particles = one mole. (etc)

    So some Governor talk I mentiond to do. 9 states have Governor/Senator combos in opposite parties, with FL the obvious Titan. Then it’s OH, MI, WI, NM, ME, MD, MA and AK, with AK a true Indy.

    AK-Indy is behind the R with D-Begich also in it. In ME, they’ve gone to ranked-choice voting (RCV) for mayors, state-wide offices, and federal CDs. That could become more of a thing. ME is a toss-up for Governor, with LePage termed out.

    The other 9 states in the Northeast/East — 10 states have incumbent R’s favored in VT, NH, MA, and MD. R’s are close but behind in CT and RI. NJ flipped last year, NY is safe and DE is on a potus year.

    More later on the other groups of states, with plenty of media overlap within groups and between some groups. PA/NJ/VA from the Midwest/East/Southeast could tell the story early in the House, which I have 219 to 216 for the R’s right now, along with R’s up 53-47 in the Senate atm.

    Eastern results could affect turnout in AZ, NV, CA, OR, and WA, which have plenty of CDs at stake. 4 weeks
    Unless I see a huge change brewing, I'll stick with the monthly forecasts. Kavanaugh could have an effect, but we'll not know that for certain, one way or the other for about a week. I think in the House, Kavanaugh is meaningless. But the way some senators voted could be enough to swing that state the other direction. Again, we'll know better in a week.

    No predictions on that without hard numbers to go by.

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