PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST October 2018
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 17: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 2: Minnesota special (Smith), New Jersey.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 5: Mississippi (Wicker), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 0:
The Republicans have 4 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.
Arizona Flake R –Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has held a constant 3-8-point lead over McSally since the beginning of the year. But when Green Party candidate Angela Green is included in the polling, Sinema lead shrinks to two points. Well within the margin of error. Green polled 6% of the vote in the three September polls she was included in. She won’t do that in November. Sinema wins. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – For the first time, Nelson has led Scott in the last three polls taken. For the last two months, it has been Scott led in one, Nelson the next, back to Scott and so on. Nelson could be on the verge of taking charge of this election. With incumbency on his side, Nelson has a distinct edge. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – This is a flip a coin race. I expected challenger Republican Mike Braun to begin pulling ahead of Donnelly for the last two months. That hasn’t happened. Where the Green Party candidate in Arizona gives McSally hope, the Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton might give Donnelly the victory. Brenton has polled between 3-8 points in the polls she has been included in. A real danger to Braun. Enough of a danger that I’m going with Donnelly this month to hang onto his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – This is another tight race where a third-party candidate could determine who wins, this time it is Libertarian Japheth Campbell. The polls are mixed, but in the money race McCaskill has a four to one advantage, 20 million to 5 million. I’m sticking with McCaskill. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
Montana Tester D – Tester has averaged only a two-point lead over Republican Matt Rosendale in the September polls. Well within the margin of error which means this race is basically tied. But incumbency and an 8-million-dollar advantage in the money race carries Tester to the win. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
Nevada Heller R – I had all but written Republican incumbent Dean Heller off in this race. Wrong thing to do. This race is a tie between him and Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen. Heller’s comeback was totally unexpected by me. Heller seems to have the momentum and has a slight advantage in the money race. I’m switching to the incumbent Heller to win this one. Republican Hold. R 50 D 50
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican challenger Kevin Cramer has a four-point advantage in the only September poll taken. Not much to go on. But as deep red as North Dakota is, I am sticking with Cramer to unseat the incumbent Heitkamp. Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Ohio Brown D – Brown easily over Republican challenger Jim Renacci. I will be removing Ohio from my watch list and placing it into the Democratic non-completive column for next month. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Tennessee Corker R – This is another coin flip race between Republican Representative Marsha Blackburn and ex-Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen. The polls have been back and forth. But Tennessee is deep red and that should be enough to carry Blackburn to victory, abet that victory will be razor thin. Republican Hold R 51 D 49
Texas Cruz R – This race between incumbent Cruz and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke is surprisingly close. Within the margin of error close. Even so, I don’t think O’Rourke can pull it off. Cruz has incumbency along with Texas being a red state on his side. Cruz in a close one. Republican hold R 51 D 49
West Virginia Manchin D – Manchin has increased his lead in the polls to double digits. The only thing that stops me from moving West Virginia to the Democratic non-competitive column next month is the SCOTUS Kavanaugh’s upcoming vote. A nay vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination could be enough to give Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey the victory in this deepest of red states. My educated guess is Manchin will vote yea to confirm and coast to an easy win in November. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Wisconsin from non-competitive to safe Democratic. In two dramatic moves I changed Indiana from a Republican gain to a Democratic hold, then switched Nevada from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. Also remember Mississippi special (Hyde-Smith) will have a runoff to secure her seat after election day, but her seat is safe Republican. The Indiana and Nevada moves cancel each other out. There will be a vote on SCOTUS nominee Kavanaugh that could change the dynamics of five of these senate races. Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. All are represented by a democratic senator in a deep red state. A nay vote could be enough to change the dynamics into the GOP’s favor. If so I will address this in my last forecast, Novembers.
So much is in flux in these senate races, one could see the Democrats gain four seats if everything breaks their way to give them 53 or the Republicans could gain five seats to up their total to 56 if things go perfect for them. But maintaining the status quo of 51-49 Republican, seems the most likely outcome at this time. Still, with 26 Democratic seats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the GOP, maintaining the status quo is still a huge win for the Democrats in my book.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 58 seats at risk of switching parties, same as last month vs. 6 for the Democrats, down one from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is an increase of three seats from last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 182 seats for the Republicans, 189 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but possible. Unless something happens, a major event or happening to turn this election on its ear, the Republicans have less than a 10% chance of retaining the House.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 17: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 2: Minnesota special (Smith), New Jersey.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 5: Mississippi (Wicker), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 0:
The Republicans have 4 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.
Arizona Flake R –Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has held a constant 3-8-point lead over McSally since the beginning of the year. But when Green Party candidate Angela Green is included in the polling, Sinema lead shrinks to two points. Well within the margin of error. Green polled 6% of the vote in the three September polls she was included in. She won’t do that in November. Sinema wins. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – For the first time, Nelson has led Scott in the last three polls taken. For the last two months, it has been Scott led in one, Nelson the next, back to Scott and so on. Nelson could be on the verge of taking charge of this election. With incumbency on his side, Nelson has a distinct edge. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – This is a flip a coin race. I expected challenger Republican Mike Braun to begin pulling ahead of Donnelly for the last two months. That hasn’t happened. Where the Green Party candidate in Arizona gives McSally hope, the Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton might give Donnelly the victory. Brenton has polled between 3-8 points in the polls she has been included in. A real danger to Braun. Enough of a danger that I’m going with Donnelly this month to hang onto his seat. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – This is another tight race where a third-party candidate could determine who wins, this time it is Libertarian Japheth Campbell. The polls are mixed, but in the money race McCaskill has a four to one advantage, 20 million to 5 million. I’m sticking with McCaskill. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
Montana Tester D – Tester has averaged only a two-point lead over Republican Matt Rosendale in the September polls. Well within the margin of error which means this race is basically tied. But incumbency and an 8-million-dollar advantage in the money race carries Tester to the win. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
Nevada Heller R – I had all but written Republican incumbent Dean Heller off in this race. Wrong thing to do. This race is a tie between him and Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen. Heller’s comeback was totally unexpected by me. Heller seems to have the momentum and has a slight advantage in the money race. I’m switching to the incumbent Heller to win this one. Republican Hold. R 50 D 50
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican challenger Kevin Cramer has a four-point advantage in the only September poll taken. Not much to go on. But as deep red as North Dakota is, I am sticking with Cramer to unseat the incumbent Heitkamp. Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Ohio Brown D – Brown easily over Republican challenger Jim Renacci. I will be removing Ohio from my watch list and placing it into the Democratic non-completive column for next month. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
Tennessee Corker R – This is another coin flip race between Republican Representative Marsha Blackburn and ex-Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen. The polls have been back and forth. But Tennessee is deep red and that should be enough to carry Blackburn to victory, abet that victory will be razor thin. Republican Hold R 51 D 49
Texas Cruz R – This race between incumbent Cruz and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke is surprisingly close. Within the margin of error close. Even so, I don’t think O’Rourke can pull it off. Cruz has incumbency along with Texas being a red state on his side. Cruz in a close one. Republican hold R 51 D 49
West Virginia Manchin D – Manchin has increased his lead in the polls to double digits. The only thing that stops me from moving West Virginia to the Democratic non-competitive column next month is the SCOTUS Kavanaugh’s upcoming vote. A nay vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination could be enough to give Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey the victory in this deepest of red states. My educated guess is Manchin will vote yea to confirm and coast to an easy win in November. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Wisconsin from non-competitive to safe Democratic. In two dramatic moves I changed Indiana from a Republican gain to a Democratic hold, then switched Nevada from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. Also remember Mississippi special (Hyde-Smith) will have a runoff to secure her seat after election day, but her seat is safe Republican. The Indiana and Nevada moves cancel each other out. There will be a vote on SCOTUS nominee Kavanaugh that could change the dynamics of five of these senate races. Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. All are represented by a democratic senator in a deep red state. A nay vote could be enough to change the dynamics into the GOP’s favor. If so I will address this in my last forecast, Novembers.
So much is in flux in these senate races, one could see the Democrats gain four seats if everything breaks their way to give them 53 or the Republicans could gain five seats to up their total to 56 if things go perfect for them. But maintaining the status quo of 51-49 Republican, seems the most likely outcome at this time. Still, with 26 Democratic seats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the GOP, maintaining the status quo is still a huge win for the Democrats in my book.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 58 seats at risk of switching parties, same as last month vs. 6 for the Democrats, down one from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is an increase of three seats from last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 182 seats for the Republicans, 189 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but possible. Unless something happens, a major event or happening to turn this election on its ear, the Republicans have less than a 10% chance of retaining the House.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 202 R 233 D
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