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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST September 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST September 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 16: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 3: Minnesota special (Smith), New Jersey, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 5: Mississippi (Wicker), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 0:

The Republicans have 4 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.

Arizona Flake R –Primaries are over, it’s Republican Martha McSally vs. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema has had a constant 4-9-point lead over McSally in every poll conducted since the beginning of the year. Sinema wins. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – Talk about a tight race, Republican Governor Rick Scott leads incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in one poll, Nelson takes the lead in the next followed by Scott regaining the lead. When a race is this tight, go with the incumbent. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – I fully expected challenger Republican Mike Braun to start pulling ahead of incumbent Donnelly by this time. That hasn’t happened. Donnelly has a ten-point positive approval rating as a senator in Indiana. The combination of those two almost makes me want to switch Indiana to a Democratic hold. Almost! I’m sticking with Braun for at least another month. Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Mississippi special Hyde-Smith R – I’m moving Mississippi special to safe Republican even though it will take a runoff win for Hyde-Smith to prevail. She will not receive the required 50% plus one vote in the Jungle Primary, but will easily defeat Espy in the runoff three weeks later. The only reason I left Mississippi special on my watch list was because of the jungle primary and the runoff to follow. Not because the democrat Espy had a chance of winning. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Missouri McCaskill D – Republican Josh Hawley and McCaskill are neck and neck in the polls. The difference is McCaskill has raised over 20 million dollars vs. 5 million for Hawley. The money race along with the incumbent advantage keeps Missouri Democratic. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Montana Tester D – Tester’s once comfortable lead over Republican Matt Rosendale has all but evaporated. This race has become very tight. I’m still going with the incumbent in this one. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Nevada Heller R – Democrat Jacky Rosen is poised to topple Heller. Nevada will have a new Democratic senator. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican Kevin Cramer will be North Dakota’s new senator. The race is still tight, but North Dakota is a deep red state and that will be enough to carry Cramer over incumbent Heitkamp. Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Ohio Brown D – Republican challenger Jim Renacci remains within striking distance of incumbent Brown. Although he hasn’t made any headway since last month. Brown is popular in Ohio, along with being the incumbent with all its advantages, Brown will probably win easily. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Tennessee Corker R – Marsha Blackburn easily won the Republican primary as expected. She’ll face ex-governor Phil Bredesen in November. This race remains tight with Blackburn taking a slight lead in the latest poll. She’ll win it to keep Tennessee’s senate seat red. Republican Hold R 51 D 49

Texas Cruz R – In a very surprising development Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke has pulled to basically even with incumbent Cruz. In three August polls, Cruz led O’Rourke by four, four and one. All within the margin of error. Thus Texas is back on my watch list. Cruz will still pull this one out, but this is a lot closer than it should be. Republican hold R 51 D 49

West Virginia Manchin D – Republican Patrick Morrisey has tightened this race up since last month, as a result West Virginia will remain on my watch list. Morrisey has pulled within 6 points of Manchin in two August polls. Manchin is still the heavy favorite and my choice here. Democratic hold R 51 D 49

Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Mississippi special (Hyde-Smith) to safe Republican. After a month’s absent, Texas is back on my watch list. Minnesota special, (Smith) and Wisconsin were moved from safe Democratic to Democratic non-competitive at this time. There has been some tightening of races as the midterms come closer. Will these races get any tighter? That remains to be seen. With each major party gaining two seats from the other and losing two to the other, the status quo remains in place.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 58 seats at risk of switching parties, up five from last month vs. 7 for the Democrats, same as last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 35, 12 more than needed. This is an increase of one seat from last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 182 seats for the Republicans, 188 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 230 Democrats to 205 Republicans.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 49 D, House 206 R 229 D
September Senate 51 R 49 D, House 205 R 230 D
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Comments

  1. haymarket's Avatar
    I always enjoy your posts on this subject and greatly appreciate all the thought and research you put in to this.

    What do you think are the chances the Dems will manage to grab 51 Senate seats? Would they need a miracle like Texas for that to happen?
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket
    I always enjoy your posts on this subject and greatly appreciate all the thought and research you put in to this.

    What do you think are the chances the Dems will manage to grab 51 Senate seats? Would they need a miracle like Texas for that to happen?
    Highly unlikely, but not impossible. I think the Democrats will pick up Arizona and Nevada, lose North Dakota. That's 50. It means the Democrats must keep Indiana, Florida, Missouri and Montana. West Virginia with Manchin and Ohio with Brown looks good as of now. That leaves winning either Tennessee or Texas to gain that 51st seat.

    Let me put this another way, pure tossups: Democrats have Florida, Missouri, Montana, Indiana and are slight favorites in Arizona, Nevada. The Republicans have Tennessee in the pure tossup column and are slight favorites in North Dakota and Texas.

    With 26 seats up for reelection vs. 9 for the Republicans, keeping the status quo of 49-51 in my opinion would be a huge victory for the democrats. A huge victory even without regaining the senate. The numbers are stacked against them. I would put the odds at less than 10%. But thanks to the Republicans nominating Roy Moore earlier this year, the democrats do have a chance. Without Moore's loss and Jones' win in Alabama, the odds would be zero.

    Now stay tuned as we do have races tightening. A month ago Texas wasn't in jeopardy for the Republicans, it is now. A month ago Donnelly in Indiana looked like a loser, today he has a 50-50 chance. Take Texas along with Arizona, Nevada while losing only North Dakota, you'll have your 51.

    Also watch out that you don't stub your toes in Florida and Missouri.
  3. DH Kirkwood's Avatar
    I'm going to have to hold my nose and vote for a woman that I despise.
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by DH Kirkwood
    I'm going to have to hold my nose and vote for a woman that I despise.
    Go for it.
  5. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by DH Kirkwood
    I'm going to have to hold my nose and vote for a woman that I despise.
    Why would you do that unless the other person is even worse? Remember Trump is temporary. Who we vote for in November could last well into the next presidency. I still vote for who I like. Regardless.
  6. <alt>doxygen's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Why would you do that unless the other person is even worse? Remember Trump is temporary. Who we vote for in November could last well into the next presidency. I still vote for who I like. Regardless.
    Trump may be temporary, but his administration has poisoned the well for decades to come. We need to bring some accountability back. If that means gridlock, so be it. Gridlock was better than this, by a long shot.
  7. Checkerboard Strangler's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Why would you do that unless the other person is even worse? Remember Trump is temporary. Who we vote for in November could last well into the next presidency. I still vote for who I like. Regardless.
    The man's liable to start a world war...so telling yourself he's temporary may be some "famous last words" as the saying goes.

    Even catastrophic things that are lesser than "starting a world war" are suddenly possible when we're talking about Trump, things you don't want your children to blame you for years from now.

    And NO, Trump just might not be "temporary". With a guy like him, all bets are off.

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