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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST August 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST August 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 18: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota (Klobuchar), Minnesota (Smith), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 1: New Jersey.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi (Wicker), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.

The Republicans have 5 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.

Arizona Flake R –McSally has opened a fifteen-point lead over Ward and Arpaio heading into the 28 August Republican primary. She’ll face Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in November which has led McSally in every poll from the beginning of the year. Sinema wins. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – This race between Republican Governor Rick Scott and incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is about as tight as a race can get. When a race is a pure tossup, go with the incumbent. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – Another extra tight race between Republican Mike Braun and Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. This one goes to the Republican Mike Braun. Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Mississippi special Hyde-Smith R – Mississippi will conduct a jungle primary on election day in which all the candidates’ names are listed on the ballot. If no one receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff election three weeks later between the top two. So far there are 2 Republicans, Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel along with 2 Democrats Toby Bartee and Mike Espy that will be on the November ballot. No candidate will receive the required 50% plus one vote on election day, hence a runoff between Espy and Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith wins the runoff on 27 November. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Missouri McCaskill D – Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG should emerge from an eleven-candidate field as the winner of the Republican Primary on 7 August to face McCaskill in November. McCaskill will pull out a very close win in November. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Montana Tester D – Tester will face Republican Matt Rosendale in November. Tester has slipped some in the polls, but still has a comfortable lead. About the only thing that could doom Tester is if he votes nay on SCOTUS Kavanaugh’s nomination. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Nevada Heller R – Heller’s bid for another term looks at its end. Democrat Jacky Rosen has a good lead in the recent polls. She’ll win Heller’s seat in November. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican Kevin Cramer will face Democratic incumbent Heitkamp in November. Cramer has overtaken Heitkamp in the polling with the momentum on his side. I am changing this race from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Ohio Brown D – As soon as I was ready to move Ohio from my watch list into the non-competitive column, Republican challenger Jim Renacci narrows Brown’s double digit lead down to four. Even so, Brown will win in November, probably comfortably. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Tennessee Corker R - Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Four of the six Republican senate candidates for the 2 August Republican primary have withdrawn. This leaves Marsha Blackburn with a lone token challenger, Pettigrew. Blackburn will face Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee in November. Tennessee is another pure tossup race. But it’s Republican lean will let Blackburn pull this one out. Republican Hold R 51 D 49
West Virginia Manchin D – Manchin is facing Republican Patrick Morrisey in November. Although a Democrat in a deep red state, Manchin is very popular, a former governor, now senator. Manchin has also opened a double-digit lead over Morrisey. If Joe maintains this lead next month, I will remove West Virginia off my watch list. Democratic hold R 51 D 49

Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Michigan, Minnesota special, (Smith) and Wisconsin from non-competitive to safe Democratic. Texas came off my watch list and placed in the non-competitive column. I have also switched North Dakota from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. Nonetheless, keeping the status quo, 51-49 after the midterms the same as it was before the election is in my opinion a big Democratic victory. Especially when one considers the democrats had 26 seats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the Republicans. In a normal election cycle you’d expect the GOP to pick up five or six seats just due to the numbers. But with Trump as president, there is nothing normal about an election.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 53 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 7 for the Democrats, up one from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 34, 11 more than needed. This is an increase of 2 seats from last month. The number of safe seats in the House is relative even, 187 safe seats for the Republicans, 188 safe seats for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 229 Democrats to 206 Republicans.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
August Senate 51 R 40 D, House 206 R 229 D
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Comments

  1. pilot16's Avatar
    Interesting thanks! I agree with your observations except that I think Scott will pull out an upset over Nelson in Florida. He has a bit of momentum and they said he is polling extraordinarily well with Cubans.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Interesting thanks! I agree with your observations except that I think Scott will pull out an upset over Nelson in Florida. He has a bit of momentum and they said he is polling extraordinarily well with Cubans.
    Florida is one of those state where at the moment it looks like it could be decided by less than a single point. In other words, Florida is a pure tossup. My reasoning this month is the age old mantra of going with the incumbent as the incumbent usually has advantages the challenger doesn't. Although I went with it this month, upon reflection a lot of Nelson's incumbent advantages is negated because Scott is Governor and is as well known as Nelson.

    In the three July polls available, Scott lead in two, Nelson one. All within the margin of error or right at the edge. The undecideds ranged from 9% to 17%. It is a pure tossup, a flip the coin race at the moment. So too are several others, Indiana is one, but Indiana is a deeper red state which is why I went with the GOP challenger. Trump's approval rating is higher in Indiana than in Florida, although at roughly 45% in Florida is above the national average.

    Scott is as good a choice as Nelson. The national mood is against Trump and the republicans. Not so much in Florida. I'll give it another month, but you have succeeded in making me wonder about this race and perhaps I did give incumbency too much credit here. We'll know more come September.
  3. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista
    Florida is one of those state where at the moment it looks like it could be decided by less than a single point. In other words, Florida is a pure tossup. My reasoning this month is the age old mantra of going with the incumbent as the incumbent usually has advantages the challenger doesn't. Although I went with it this month, upon reflection a lot of Nelson's incumbent advantages is negated because Scott is Governor and is as well known as Nelson.

    In the three July polls available, Scott lead in two, Nelson one. All within the margin of error or right at the edge. The undecideds ranged from 9% to 17%. It is a pure tossup, a flip the coin race at the moment. So too are several others, Indiana is one, but Indiana is a deeper red state which is why I went with the GOP challenger. Trump's approval rating is higher in Indiana than in Florida, although at roughly 45% in Florida is above the national average.

    Scott is as good a choice as Nelson. The national mood is against Trump and the republicans. Not so much in Florida. I'll give it another month, but you have succeeded in making me wonder about this race and perhaps I did give incumbency too much credit here. We'll know more come September.

    From what I have read Scott has some advantages because he welcomed Puerto Ricans after the hurricane. That may help him a bit with that demographic. He also reportedly has a huge advantage with Cubans which again will help. The tough thing I have always felt about Florida is we know the retirees vote at a much higher rate than others so it tends to give republicans the advantage quite often. But I dont know a lot about Nelson. Have read where some feel he is too "quiet" and not a go getter which hurts him a bit. He will secure that democratic base easily but this is one state where the indies will likely decide. Its always a tough state I suspect.
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    From what I have read Scott has some advantages because he welcomed Puerto Ricans after the hurricane. That may help him a bit with that demographic. He also reportedly has a huge advantage with Cubans which again will help. The tough thing I have always felt about Florida is we know the retirees vote at a much higher rate than others so it tends to give republicans the advantage quite often. But I dont know a lot about Nelson. Have read where some feel he is too "quiet" and not a go getter which hurts him a bit. He will secure that democratic base easily but this is one state where the indies will likely decide. Its always a tough state I suspect.
    That Florida is. It seems elections are always close. That what one suspects should happen, doesn't always. What's interesting is in Florida, Trump won by a bit more than a single point. In Ohio, Trump won by eight points. Yet the senate races have taken a complete opposite track. Brown is up by 8 points in Ohio which would be a 16 point swing from Republican to democrat. Nelson is basically even as was the presidential race of 2016 in Florida. Senator Brown is also quiet the same as Nelson. You don't hear much from either, at least nationally.

    Ohio has had some wild swings from one party to the other, Florida is usually really close. Ohio give Obama a five point win, then Trump an eight point win. Florida on the other hand, gives Obama a single point win followed by giving Trump a single point win. No wild swing, always close.

    Exactly what that means, I'm not sure. Perhaps Ohio has many more independent or swing voters, less loyalty to a political party whereas those voters in Florida are more loyal with fewer independents?
  5. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista
    That Florida is. It seems elections are always close. That what one suspects should happen, doesn't always. What's interesting is in Florida, Trump won by a bit more than a single point. In Ohio, Trump won by eight points. Yet the senate races have taken a complete opposite track. Brown is up by 8 points in Ohio which would be a 16 point swing from Republican to democrat. Nelson is basically even as was the presidential race of 2016 in Florida. Senator Brown is also quiet the same as Nelson. You don't hear much from either, at least nationally.

    Ohio has had some wild swings from one party to the other, Florida is usually really close. Ohio give Obama a five point win, then Trump an eight point win. Florida on the other hand, gives Obama a single point win followed by giving Trump a single point win. No wild swing, always close.

    Exactly what that means, I'm not sure. Perhaps Ohio has many more independent or swing voters, less loyalty to a political party whereas those voters in Florida are more loyal with fewer independents?

    Suspect Ohio being more of a rust belt state has more manufacturing concerns that FL does. Currently Brown is applauding Trumps tariffs and agrees with his trade policy. FL relies very heavily on the snowbirds who come from the predominantly blue northern states. I assume it makes a bit of a difference.
  6. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Suspect Ohio being more of a rust belt state has more manufacturing concerns that FL does. Currently Brown is applauding Trumps tariffs and agrees with his trade policy. FL relies very heavily on the snowbirds who come from the predominantly blue northern states. I assume it makes a bit of a difference.
    probably does. I know over the years, decades, Georgia has had quite a migration from the Northeast to here. Being Georgia is called the poor man's Florida, it makes sense many more would head further south.

    Our state taxes are lower, we also over the decades picked up a lot of businesses from both the northeast and the midwest. Those from the northeast settle in and around Atlanta, it's now called the Atlanta metro area and is about as blue and blue can get. About as liberal also as Massachusetts and the likes.

    Retirees don't want their social security and pensions messed with or taxed by the state. 65 and older, Georgia doesn't, I don't think Florida does either.

    Whom migrates from what states also makes a difference.

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