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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST July 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST July 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 15: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time but could become so at some time in the future 4: New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 7: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi (Wicker), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future: None.

The Republicans have 5 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.

Arizona Flake R –McSally has opened a ten-point lead over Ward with Arpaio fifteen points behind for the GOP nomination. The problem for McSally is that Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has averaged an 8-point lead over her in four June polls. Unless something happens unforeseen, Sinema will be an easy winner in November. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – This race between Republican Governor Rick Scott and incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is so tight it could be decided by less than a single percentage point. In a race as tight as this, I’m sticking with the incumbent. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – Another extra tight race between Republican Mike Braun and Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. This one goes to the Republican Mike Braun. Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Mississippi special Hyde-Smith R – Mississippi will conduct a jungle primary on election day in which all the candidates’ names are listed on the ballot. If no one receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff election three weeks later between the top two. So far there are 2 Republicans, Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel along with 2 Democrats Toby Bartee and Mike Espy that will be on the November ballot. Democrat John Shelton withdrew from the race. No candidate will receive the required 50% plus one vote on election day, hence a runoff between Espy and Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith wins the runoff on 27 November. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Missouri McCaskill D – Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG should emerge from an eleven-candidate field as the winner of the Republican Primary to face McCaskill in November. The Republican primary will be held 7 August. McCaskill wins. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Montana Tester D – Tester will face Republican Matt Rosendale in November. Tester will keep his seat, but not before Rosendale gives him fits. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Nevada Heller R – Nevada’s 12 June primaries are in the books, it’s Republican Heller vs. Democrat Jacky Rosen. Nevada is turning into a blue state having gone for Obama twice and Hillary Clinton once. That fact will bring Rosen victory. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican Kevin Cramer will face Democratic incumbent Heitkamp in November. This race is the third that could be decided by less than a single percentage point. I’m sticking with the incumbent. Heitkamp wins in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Ohio Brown D – Incumbent Brown leads Republican challenger Jim Renacci by double digits in three June polls. If Brown holds this kind of lead next month, Ohio will be removed from my watch list and either placed into the non-competitive or safe Democratic column. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

Tennessee Corker R - Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Four of the five Republican senate candidates for the primary on 2 August has withdrawn leaving only a token challenger, Pettigrew to Marsha Blackburn. Blackburn will face Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee in November. Add Tennessee to the list of senate races that could be decided by less than a single point. That brings us to four very close races. Regardless, Blackburn will pull this out in November. Republican Hold R 50 D 50

Texas Cruz R – Ted Cruz has increased his lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke to double digits in two June polls. If Cruz’s lead holds, Texas will likely join Ohio coming off my watch list next month. Republican Hold R 50 D 50

West Virginia Manchin D – Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin is a good fit for West Virginia although that state is about the deepest red any state can get. The old fashioned, big tent Democrat Joe Manchin will beat his Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey fairly easily. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Miscellaneous record Keeping – I moved Montana from non-competitive to my watch list. There are four senate races that could be decided by less than a single percentage point. Wow! Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Tennessee, three Democratic incumbents vs. one Republican. Usually in a normal election, one party or the other wins all the close ones. But with Trump as president, there’s no such thing as a normal election. The status quo from last month remains in place. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Republicans win all four of these close ones to up their margin to 54-46 over the Democrats. It also wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see the democrats win all four and gain control of the senate 51-49 by adding Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee. With 26 Democrats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the GOP, there is no way the Republicans should lose the senate. That is if this was a normal election. It isn’t, so it is possible. Stay tuned. With VP Pence providing the tie breaking votes, The Republicans maintain control of the senate.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 49 seats at risk of switching parties, down one from last month vs. 6 for the Democrats. No change from last month for the Democrats. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 32, 9 more than needed. This is an increase of 2 seats from last month which indicates the momentum has shifted back to the Democrats. The number of safe seats in the House is relative even, 191 safe seats for the Republicans, 189 safe seats for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 227 Democrats to 208 Republicans.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
July Senate 50 R 50 D, House 208 R 227 D
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Comments

  1. polgara's Avatar
    I agree that there is no reason to assume anything will be normal in the midterm election coming up in a few months! Keep up your good work, Pero!
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by polgara
    I agree that there is no reason to assume anything will be normal in the midterm election coming up in a few months! Keep up your good work, Pero!
    this is a work of joy. As more names, candidates are confirmed and nominated, things become clearer. I've said this before, but I am still amazed in a year where the Democrats have 26 seats up for reelection vs. only 9 for the GOP. The possibility that the Democrats can take control of the senate is real. It shouldn't be, we should be talking about how many seats the Republicans will gain. 5 or more would be normal.

    But Trump makes everything unique and nothing is normal.
  3. pilot16's Avatar
    Just seeing some new polling, Scott seems to be pulling ahead of Nelson in 3 new polls, Heitkamp down in ND and Hawley ahead in his first poll against McCaskill. Hold on, going to be a wild ride!
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Just seeing some new polling, Scott seems to be pulling ahead of Nelson in 3 new polls, Heitkamp down in ND and Hawley ahead in his first poll against McCaskill. Hold on, going to be a wild ride!
    Exactly. If the election were held today, Arizona and Nevada I think would go Democratic. North Dakota and Indiana Republican. Florida is what I would term a pure toss up. Missouri, McCaskill has a habit of surviving when she shouldn't.

    Tennessee is also very close. Things are getting hotter and the closer we get to the election, the hotter things will become. I'll take another look at very thing come the 1st of August and see where things stand then.

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