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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST June 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST June 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 15: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 5: New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi (Wicker), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future: None.

The Republicans have 5 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.

Arizona Flake R –Still a dead heat between McSally and Ward for the GOP nomination. Arpaio is ten points behind the front runners. Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite for the Democratic nomination. Sinema wins in November. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – This is a tight race between Republican Governor Rick Scott and incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. Incumbency has its advantages, this is the only reason why I am picking Nelson to win. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – Another tight race that could go either way between Republican Mike Braun and Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. Incumbency does has its advantages. Incumbency in Florida was enough for me to go with Nelson. But Florida is a purple state, Indiana is a red state. Incumbency won’t be enough to save Donnelly. I’m switching Indiana to a Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Mississippi special Hyde-Smith R – Mississippi will conduct a jungle primary on election day in which all the candidates names are listed on the ballot. If no one receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff election three weeks later between the top two. So far there are 2 Republicans, Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel along with 2 Democrats Toby Bartee and Mike Espy that will be on the November ballot. Democrat John Shelton withdrew from the race. No candidate will receive the required 50% plus one vote on election day, hence a runoff between Espy and Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith wins the runoff on 27 November. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Missouri McCaskill D – Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG should emerge from a eleven candidate field as the winner of the Republican Primary. McCaskill faces six token challengers in the Democratic Primary. She is also way ahead in the money race having raised well over 18 million to Hawley’s 3 million and Hawley still has the GOP primary to win. McCaskill retains her seat. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49

Nevada Heller R – For Nevada’s 12 June Republican primary, Heller has only a token challenger. Jacky Rosen is the best known of the four Democratic challengers. Rosen will win the Democratic nomination to face Heller in November. Nevada is turning into a blue state having gone for Obama twice and Hillary Clinton once. That fact will bring Rosen victory. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Kevin Cramer is a big favorite to beat Thomas O’Neill in the GOP primary. Heitkamp faces no challengers. She wins in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Ohio Brown D – Jim Renacci won the Republican primary and will face Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in November. Brown will return to Washington. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

Tennessee Corker R - Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it and face Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee who will win the Democratic nomination. Blackburn pulls out a barn burner in November. Republican Hold R 50 D 50

Texas Cruz R – Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke has an outside chance of winning this. Especially if Independent Jonathan Jenkins draws enough votes from Ted Cruz. Jenkins is currently at 6% in the polls. Now history has shown as it gets closer to election day, third party and independent candidates fades. Thus, Cruz wins, but it is going to be much closer than most think. Republican Hold R 50 D 50

West Virginia Manchin D – The Republican got the candidate they wanted to challenge Manchin in Patrick Morrisey. But the GOP may not have gotten rid of Don Blankenship who is set to run as the Constitutional Party nominee. But that now depends on the courts due to West Virginia sore loser law. Time will tell. Manchin is an old fashioned big tent mode Democrat. He doesn’t fit into either party today. Even so, he’s right for West Virginia. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

The big news this month is I switched Indiana from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain. Miscellaneous record keeping, I moved New Jersey from Safe Democratic to Non-Competitive but might become so. The net results is the democrats pick up two, (Arizona, Nevada). lose one (Indiana), which results in a 50-50 split. VP Pence will be casting a lot of tie breaking votes as the GOP retains control.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 50 seats at risk of switching parties, down from 56 last month vs. 6 for the Democrats. No change from last month for the Democrats. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 30, 7 more than needed. Still, this is a decrease of 3 net gain seats since last month. For the second month in a row the number of expected gained seats for the Democrats have declined. From 36 to 33 to 30. The question is, is this a new trend or just part of the normal ups and downs as November draws closer. We’ll have a clearer idea next month and might be able to answer that question. The Democrats gaining control which looked like an almost sure thing two months ago, is beginning to look iffy. If I was placing odds on the Democrats gaining control, it would have been 70% two months ago, down to 55% today. The number of safe seats in the House is relative even, 190 safe seats for the Republicans, 189 safe seats for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 225 Democrats to 210 Republicans.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
June Senate 50 R 50 D, House 210 R 225 D
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Comments

  1. haymarket's Avatar
    As usual, your analysis is very good and insightful. I enjoy reading these.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket
    As usual, your analysis is very good and insightful. I enjoy reading these.
    I love doing them. Now that the primaries are being held, I do expect some changes. Maybe minor or maybe major. There are always some races that change due to the names being added. Things has been fairly static up to now, that may be about to change, or not. We'll see.

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